France, USA, France, USA

It's all but official that four of the six Olympics over the next decade will be in either France or the United States.  In 2017, the IOC made that historical double-awarding of the next two Summer Games to Paris and Los Angeles.  And in Paris, we're poised for another double-awarding, with the 2030 Winter Games going to the French Alps, followed by Salt Lake City in 2034.

Salt Lake City taking a second turn at hosting the Winter Olympics in 2034 is not a surprise.  They'd long been considered the favorite for those Games, so much so that there weren't even any other bidders.  There was some initial talk about Salt Lake stepping up for 2030 after Sapporo dropped out and there didn't appear to be any other viable candidates, but their preference was always 2034, with good reason.  The 2030 Winter Games are roughly 18 months after the 2028 Summer Games in LA.  That's simply too close.

So, 2034 it is, and Salt Lake City's second time hosting the Winter Olympics will be six years after the U.S. hosts the Summer Games--just like the first time, when they hosted six years after Atlanta.  Those spectacular 2002 Games, which are widely considered one of the best Winter Olympics ever (if not THE best) turned a profit, which has been used to maintain the Olympic venues.  The venues have all remained in regular use over the past 20 years, with many of them becoming the home base of the U.S. National Team in numerous winter sports.

That fits right in with the IOC's policy of using existing venues to keep costs down.  It shouldn't come as a surprise, then, that Salt Lake 2034 will use the same venues as Salt Lake 2002.  There are more sports now, so there will obviously be some new ones used, but, for the most part, it'll be the same venue plan.  And, since the 2002 Olympics were before the IOC put the kibosh on building new venues, they'd actually be fairly compact, an idea that has become a distant memory when it comes to Winter Olympic hosts.

Frankly, Salt Lake City could host the Winter Olympics again tomorrow if asked.  The IOC knows that.  And, with all the problems they've had securing Winter Games hosts for 2022, 2026 and 2030, they know that Salt Lake City will give them some stability.  Which is exactly what the IOC needs and wants.  They don't have to worry about Salt Lake City, just like they don't have to worry about Paris and LA.

The selection of the French Alps for 2030, meanwhile, does come as a bit of a surprise.  France didn't even enter the race until a few months ago, when the IOC was getting desperate to find a host.  Sweden, which for a while was the sole bidder, missed out again (although, you'd figure there's still a pretty good chance the Winter Olympics will eventually be held in Sweden).  A bid from Switzerland, meanwhile, was given the inside track at hosting in 2038, and will have exclusive discussions with the IOC regarding their bid until 2027.

Over the next four years, the Swiss will have an opportunity to fine-tune their bid and make some changes that the IOC recommended.  The Swiss bid was somewhat disorganized, with no official host "city."  Instead, their plan was to use existing venues scattered across the country.  That will still likely end up being what they do, but the biggest problem was that there was no centralized Olympic Village.  Assuming they get everything straightened out, you'd have to assume the IOC will rubber stamp Switzerland as the 2038 host sometime before the end of that exclusive window (it should be noted that IOC headquarters are in Lausanne, Switzerland, so this would be a "home" Olympics for the IOC).

France has hosted the Winter Olympics three times--the first-ever Winter Olympics in Chamonix in 1924, Grenoble in 1968 and Albertville in 1992.  All three of those cities are located in the Alps and not really that far from each other.  They all figure into the 2030 venue plan along with the Mediterranean coast city of Nice, which will host the skating events and be the site of the main Olympic Village.  That's the biggest positive of the French plan.  Once again, they'll be using the existing venues that have been regular stops on the World Cup circuit since the Albertville Games 30 years ago.

What's ironic is that one of the biggest criticisms of those Albertville Games was that they were so spread out.  A lot of athletes said they felt like a bunch of individual World Championships rather than an Olympics, where the opportunity to mingle and be teammates with athletes in other sports is one of the most memorable parts of the experience.  However, with the IOC's new "don't build anything" approach that emphasizes using only existing venues, even if they're far outside the host city, the Albertville Games don't seem so spread out anymore.  Especially when compared to Beijing and Milan-Cortina.

While most of the 1992 venues will be reused, there's still a big one that's missing.  Perhaps the most breathtaking venue in Albertville was the outdoor speed skating track.  That outdoor track also led to numerous problems with wind and sun glare causing multiple delays.  It was also the reason why the IOC and ISU decided that all world-class speed skating venues should be indoors moving forward.  Which means they obviously can't use the same one as 1992.  And, since there are no world-class speed skating venues in France, they'll likely need to build a temporary facility for the competition (or cross the border into Italy and use the Turin 2006 track).

There have been a few half-hearted French Winter Olympic bids since Albertville, but their focus was primarily on finally getting another Summer Games in Paris.  Now that Paris is hosting next summer, making a Winter Games bid for the Alps made sense.  And, I'm sure riding the momentum of the Paris Games, the French citizens were overwhelmingly in support of a 2030 bid.  More importantly, many of the sponsors for next summer also signed on for another Olympics six years later, which you know the IOC liked.

In that sense, I can see what the IOC is doing here.  Yes, four out of six Olympics over a 10-year period in the same two countries seems a bit redundant on paper.  But when those two countries are France and the United States, two of the most important countries in the Olympic movement, it's a safe bet, both organizationally and financially.  Especially since it gives the two host nations an opportunity to sell potential sponsors on the exposure of two Olympics in six years.  That's a win-win for everybody.

You've gotta love the symmetry, too!  They'll be awarding France the 2030 Winter Olympics while in France next summer just before the Paris Games start.  Talk about riding the momentum!  Was that the reason why the IOC made its decision about 2030?  I doubt it.  It might've been in the back of their minds, but it probably wasn't THE reason.  More likely, the IOC saw an opportunity in France that may not come around again and they wanted to capitalize on it, knowing there was minimal risk involved (I wouldn't be surprised if some members of the Paris organizing committee transition to the 2030 organizing committee sometime next fall after the Paralympics are over.)

They certainly threw Switzerland a bone, too.  Instead of simply rejecting the bid outright, they're giving them four years to tailor it into exactly what they're looking for.  It's not a promise that they'll host in 2038, but it may as well be.  Which, again, is the smart strategic move for the IOC.  They want the 2038 Winter Olympics in Switzerland, so they're gonna do what they need to do in order to make it work.  And that'll set them up with four more traditional hosts, the United States and three neighbors in Western Europe, to give them some stability and a presence in important markets after the East Asia back-to-back.

After the three straight Olympics in the same part of Asia, we'll have five out of six in either the same part of Western Europe (two in France, one in Italy) or the United States.  The only outlier during the next decade will be the 2032 Summer Games in Brisbane, Australia.  This is a direct result of the IOC reforms, but it's also an effort by the IOC to revive interest in the Olympic Movement in important stakeholders.  They're also putting the Winter Olympics in the trusted, capable hands they've already been working with for the next two Summer Games.  So, I think it might actually be a good thing.

Back when the Winter Olympics first started, the host nation of that year's Summer Games was given the option if they wanted to host the winter edition also.  That only lasted until World War II because they realized it was too much, but I can see this six-year model becoming a regular thing moving forward.  Because it really does seem smart to make the Summer and Winter Olympics a package deal, for both the host nations and the Olympic Movement.

Maybe It Was Brady

Bill Belichick is going to the Hall of Fame when he's done coaching.  That's obvious.  He's won six Super Bowls and been to nine as a head coach, he's third all-time in regular season wins, and the Patriots had a two-decade stretch of dominance unlike anything we've seen before (and may not see again).  A lot of that success, of course, came with future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady.  In fact, as we've seen in the four years since Brady left New England, he might've been the cause of the Patriots' success.  Not Belichick.

In the 19 seasons Bradichick were together, the Patriots never finished lower than second in the AFC East.  They only missed the playoffs twice (going 9-7 and 11-5 in those two years, with Brady injured in one of them).  Outside of that 9-7 season, they won at least 10 games every year, which included four 14-2 seasons and that ridiculous 2007 campaign where they went 16-0 before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl.  The Patriot Way became synonymous with excellence.

Brady left in 2020, signing with Tampa Bay.  The Patriots brought in Cam Newton as his replacement, but quickly learned life without Brady wouldn't be the same.  They went 7-9 (their first losing season since 2000) and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

The next season, they drafted Mac Jones and things were looking up.  New England went 10-7 and made the playoffs as a wild card team.  Last season, the Patriots were 8-8 and in playoff contention going into the final game, but they lost to the Bills and missed out.  Which brings us to this year, which has been nothing short of disastrous.  The Patriots are 2-9 and the days of them dominating the NFL seem like a distant memory.

As for Brady, he won another Super Bowl in his first season with the Bucs.  The next season, Tampa Bay went 13-4, won the NFC South, and lost to the eventual champion Rams in the playoffs.  They finished 8-9 last year (after Brady retired, then unretired), but that was good enough to win the NFC South again.  The Bucs went a combined 32-18 in three seasons with Brady.  New England's record since the start of the 2020 season?  27-34.

Mac Jones is clearly no Tom Brady.  He's been benched multiple times and thrown 12 interceptions compared to just 10 touchdowns.  The Patriots are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, too, and their offense has looked anemic more often than not.  It's also worth noting that one of their wins, came on a 75-yard touchdown on the last play to beat the Jets.  Otherwise, they'd be 1-10.

New England is looking at a Top 5 pick in the draft.  Right now, they'd be picking third, but they have a realistic shot at No. 1.  And, seeing as this is expected to be a quarterback-heavy draft, Mac Jones' days in New England are pretty much done.  Turns out, he's not Brady's successor after all.  

Whether this is Bill Belichick's final season with the Patriots is another question.  Even before the season started, there was speculation he might retire, and that's starting to look more and more likely.  This obviously isn't how he wanted to go out.  But, with the way this season is going, it sure looks like Belichick's two-decade tenure in New England is coming to an end.  He is, after all, 71 years old.

Heading into this season, it was a foregone conclusion that he'd get his 300th win.  Most people figured it would come pretty early.  Instead, he had to wait until Week 7, when the Patriots upset the Bills 29-25.  Now it seems crazy to even think about the question of whether he'll catch Don Shula as the NFL's all-time coaching wins leader (which would be a reason for him to stick around past this season).  Shula's at 347.  Belichick's at 331.  He'd be looking at two, maybe even three seasons to get there.

Robert Kraft has said that Bill Belichick can coach the Patriots as long as he wants to.  Which sure makes it sound like whatever decision about Belichick's future is completely up to him.  That was several years ago, however.  While I have no doubt that Kraft meant it then and means it now, that doesn't mean he won't give Belichick a little nudge towards retirement.  He won't fire him.  That would show a complete lack of respect for Belichick and what he's done for the franchise.  But he can strongly hint that the franchise may want to move on after two decades with Belichick in charge.

I get why Belichick is still coaching.  He obviously loves it, but that's not the only reason.  The Patriots dynasty existed because of Bradichick.  But it was always a question over which one was mainly responsible, as well as whether one could win without the other.  So, after the divorce.  They both had something to prove.  Brady proved it.  Belichick still hasn't.

None of this takes anything away from what Bill Belichick has accomplished over his career.  He's earned the right to go out on his own terms.  If he wants to come back, mentor that young quarterback they draft in the first round and prove that this year was a fluke, that's his prerogative.  Likewise, if he's not interested in a rebuild at his age and decides now's the time to retire, that's also his prerogative.

But, what the last four years have proven is that Belichick can't be given all of the credit for the Patriots' dynasty.  If it was all him, they wouldn't have missed a beat when Brady left.  There, of course, was going to be a bit of a drop off when you go from arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history to someone who's decidedly not a Hall of Famer.  But I don't think anybody expected it to be this much.  And this quickly.

This season has done nothing to diminish Bill Belichick's legacy.  He's still the second-winningest coach in NFL history and he'll still have a bust in Canton.  But he didn't build that Patriots dynasty alone.  Tom Brady is just as, if not more, responsible for those two decades of sustained excellence.  The last few years have shown just important Brady was.

Where They Should Go

Before Thanksgiving, baseball's offseason got underway in earnest with the first major moves.  The Phillies re-signed ace Aaron Nola, but that's been it so far on the free agent front.  And there's only been one noteworthy trade thus far--third baseman Eugenio Suarez going from the Mariners to the Diamondbacks.  That'll all change soon, though.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been posted, and he'll start meeting with teams next week.  It's been reported that nearly half of Major League Baseball has already reached out to his representatives, so it'll be interesting to see how many teams (and which ones) he ends up meeting with.  You'd have to figure all of the usual suspects (Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox) will be involved.  Will he end up with one of them?  Or somewhere else?

Yamamoto's the most sought-after pitching prize of this offseason, and other pitchers may have to wait until he signs before they can.  Not only does it seem like Yamamoto will set the market, teams will have to pivot to their Plans B and C if they don't get him.  Yamamoto's not the only free agent available this winter, of course.  He's not even the biggest name out there.  That would be Shohei Ohtani, who'll probably command at least $40 million a year even though he won't be able to pitch next season.

While Ohtani is the obvious headliner, there are plenty of other impact players who'll be available as free agents this winter.  Some positions have a glut of free agents, giving teams options.  Others not so much.  Here's a position-by-position list of the best available name (that isn't Ohtani) and the teams that might be a good fit for each of them:

Catcher: Mitch Garver-There are a lot of available free-agent catchers, but none of them are really impact guys.  Mitch Garver won a ring as the Rangers' DH, and the prevailing thought is that he'll become a full-time DH eventually.  I don't think that'll happen yet, though.  I can see Garver going to somebody like the White Sox or even staying in Texas.

1st Base: Rhys Hoskins-The Phillies sure threw a curve ball when they announced that they were making Bryce Harper their regular first baseman, thus making Hoskins a free agent.  He may have to take a one-year deal because he missed all of last season, but he's also only 31 and a proven power bat, which both work in his favor.  If San Francisco misses out on Bellinger, Hoskins would be a perfect fit for the Giants.

2nd Base: Elvis Andrus-Second base is by far the weakest position in free agency this year.  Which partially explains the trade chatter surrounding players like Gleyber Torres.  The best free agent second baseman available might be Elvis Andrus, who's no longer anywhere near the type of player he was during his prime in Texas.  I think the most likely scenario is he signs a one-year deal with a small-market or non-contending team hoping to flip him to a contender at the deadline.  Somebody like Washington.

Shortstop: Tim Anderson-One of the most surprising non-tenders was Tim Anderson.  Which means a White Sox reunion is unlikely.  So, somebody's getting a quality leadoff hitter who's looking for a bounce-back year.  It could be a situation similar to Cody Bellinger with the Cubs last season.  You know who needs both a shortstop and a leadoff hitter?  St. Louis.

3rd Base: Matt Chapman-Matt Chapman has been linked to so many teams that I've lost count.  There are plenty of people who think he's a perfect fit for the Yankees.  I don't agree.  You know where he is a perfect fit?  On a Seattle team that just opened up third base in the Suarez trade.

Left Field: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-Interestingly, the top two free agent left fielders, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham, were both on the Diamondbacks' World Series roster.  Pham is more of a DH, while Gurriel still has plenty of value as an outfielder.  Now that Philadelphia has committed to Harper at first base, that means they can move Kyle Schwarber primarily into the DH role, freeing up left field for somebody like Gurriel.

Center Field: Cody Bellinger-Returning to the Cubs is definitely a possibility.  Either way, I suspect we'll see a bidding war for Cody Bellinger's services.  Ultimately, I think it comes down to three--the Cubs, Yankees and Giants.  Could someone else enter the mix?  Sure.  But, after their dumpster fire of a 2023 season, the Yankees will likely be all-in on Bellinger and will probably overspend to get him (especially if they don't get Yamamoto).

Right Field: Teoscar Hernandez-When the Blue Jays traded Hernandez to Seattle last winter, I loved the trade for both Hernandez and the Mariners.  He played 160 games, got 600 at-bats for the first time, and put up a .258/26/93 slash line.  Now he's a free agent who'll command a pretty sizeable multi-year deal.  The White Sox were really missing that power bat last season after Jose Abreu left for Houston.  Hernandez would be a perfect replacement.

DH: J.D. Martinez-Martinez is an interesting case.  He's pretty much exclusively a DH at this point, only playing a handful of innings in the outfield last season.  In LA, that worked out.  There won't be DH at bats available if the Dodgers sign Ohtani, though, which would mean Martinez heads elsewhere (to a team that's OK with having a dedicated DH).  Somebody will sign him, though.  He's too good a middle-of-the-order hitter.  My guess is he goes to a team like the Mets.

Starting Pitcher: Blake Snell-Coming off his second career Cy Young, Snell's gonna have plenty of suitors.  It's possible he stays in San Diego, but the Padres may be looking to cut salary, which means he'll likely get a better offer elsewhere.  Especially from a team that feels they're just one starting pitcher away.  Like that team a little bit north of San Diego that's in the Padres' division and wears blue.  Even if they land Ohtani, I can definitely see the Dodgers finding money in the budget to also add Snell.

Reliever: Josh Hader-An elite, 30-year-old closer?  Yeah, Hader's gonna make some money!  In fact, with the value being placed on the back end of the bullpen and teams stockpiling relievers, he may get an offer that's too good to resist from somebody who wants him to be a setup man.  Hader has more value as a closer, so a team that's looking for a closer will snag him.  It could be the Dodgers, but I think the Cubs are more likely.

That list also doesn't include players who are likely to be traded.  Juan Soto is the most prominent name on the trade block, but he almost certainly isn't the only one.  And, when you throw the trades in, that's when things get really interesting.

2023 Picks, Week 12

Last year on Thanksgiving, there were two types of football being played.  The NFL, of course, and the World Cup.  FOX had Brazil-Serbia going up against the Bills-Cowboys game on CBS, then had Giants-Cowboys.  Then the USA-England game was on Black Friday.  This year, of course, there's no soccer, and the NFL is trying its own Black Friday game, Jets-Dolphins, giving us six national broadcasts on Thanksgiving weekend!

Thanksgiving weekend, as many of you know, is the one exception I make when it comes to posting the football picks.  With four games being played before Sunday, I think it's important that I don't leave out a quarter of the week's schedule.  So, yes, back-to-back posts that are nothing but NFL picks.

Packers (4-6) at Lions (8-2): Detroit-The craziest thing about this year's Thanksgiving slate is that the best team playing might actually be the Lions.  When was the last time that happened?!  Detroit had that incredible comeback against the Bears on Sunday and is currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC.  It was last Thanksgiving when this all started, too.  The Bills kicked a last-second field goal to win that game 28-25.  The Lions are 13-3 since then.  Make that 14-3.

Commanders (4-7) at Cowboys (7-3): Dallas-I feel like I say the same thing about Dallas every week.  The Cowboys are one of the most talented teams in football, and there are times when they really play like it.  But, because of those times when they don't, they're staring at a wild card and going on the road in the playoffs.  Their schedule down the stretch is brutal, so they need to just keep winning and hope the Eagles lose somewhere along the line.

49ers (7-3) at Seahawks (6-4): San Francisco-Even though the Seahawks lost to the Rams on Sunday, this one is for first place in the NFC West.  Except that loss makes this game much bigger for Seattle.  Because they'll either be tied (albeit with the tiebreaker) or two games back.  That's a huge difference.  And their wild card position will become a lot more precarious if they don't win.  Their next three games are at Dallas, at San Francisco, Philadelphia.  So, yeah, that loss was bad.

Dolphins (7-3) at Jets (4-6): Miami-It appears the Jets have finally given up on Zach Wilson.  He's been dropped all the way to QB3 for the NFL's first-ever Black Friday matchup.  The Jets were 3-3 and coming off a win over the Eagles heading into their bye.  Since then, they're 1-3 and scored a total of 37 points.  Even without Wilson under center, things might not go much better against Miami.

Saints (5-5) at Falcons (4-6): Atlanta-Nobody in the NFC South can seem to beat anyone else.  Which makes division games that much more important.  And, if the Falcons win here, they'll be tied with the Saints atop the division (it'll be a three-way tie if Atlanta and Tampa Bay both win).  We'll most likely only see the division winner in the playoffs (where they'll have to play Dallas).  I think the Falcons force that tie and set up an exciting final six weeks.

Steelers (6-4) at Bengals (5-5): Pittsburgh-Mike Tomlin fired his offensive coordinator earlier this week, a move that Steeler Nation met with great enthusiasm.  A 13-10 loss to the Browns on Sunday was the last straw.  Now they play a second straight division road game in the State of Ohio.  The Bengals will have a long road the rest of the way without Joe Burrow.  Pittsburgh needs to take advantage to make sure they stay ahead of Cincinnati.

Panthers (1-9) at Titans (3-7): Carolina-There's been some chatter about Frank Reich being on the hot seat, which seems crazy to me.  Sure, his first year in Carolina hasn't gone well, but blowing the whole thing up after one season with a new head coach and rookie quarterback seems a bit excessive.  The coach who should be on the hot seat is Mike Vrabel.  Because, frankly, things are going worse in Tennessee than they are in Carolina.

Buccaneers (4-6) at Colts (5-5): Tampa Bay-You really could flip a coin with this one.  Because it really does seem like it'll depend on which Bucs team shows up and which Colts team shows up.  Tampa Bay was 3-1 before losing five out of six.  Indianapolis was 3-5 before winning two straight, including a 10-6 victory over New England in Frankfurt that wasn't exactly an advertisement of the product for the German fans.  I'll go with Tampa here, but, really, like I said, it's pretty much a coin flip.

Patriots (2-8) at Giants (3-8): Giants-Under normal circumstances, this would be a marquee game.  Instead, it's a regional 1:00 game between last-place teams who'll be starting backup quarterbacks.  Well, the Patriots might not be starting their backup.  Belichick "hasn't decided" who'll start yet.  As for the Giants, they aren't just coming off a win.  They're coming off a road win!  Sure, they're 2-0 against Washington and 1-8 against the rest of the NFL, and sure one of the Patriots' two wins came at MetLife Stadium.  If the Giants are the less-bad team here, they'll be on a winning streak!

Jaguars (7-3) at Texans (6-4): Jacksonville-Who would've thought that Jacksonville and Houston would both be in playoff position in Week 12?  The Texans will actually take over first place AND have a season sweep of Jacksonville if they take this one.  So, it's huge for the Jaguars.  They'll snap Houston's three-game winning streak and maintain their spot atop the AFC South.

Browns (7-3) at Broncos (5-5): Denver-Denver is suddenly the hottest team in football and very much in the AFC playoff race.  The Broncos have won four straight, with three of those victories coming late by a combined five points (with a blowout in Kansas City thrown in).  The Browns have a three-game winning streak of their own and are currently the top wild card team in the AFC.  Something's gotta give here.  Since the game's in Denver, I'm saying it's the Broncos' winning streak that continues.

Rams (4-6) at Cardinals (2-9): Rams-Was it pretty?  No.  Was it a win?  Yes.  And beating the Seahawks on Sunday kept the Rams relevant in the playoff discussion, too.  Let's be honest here.  They aren't as good as the three teams currently occupying the three wild card spots.  Dallas and Seattle have tough schedules coming up, though, so there's a chance for a team like the Rams to go on a run and sneak in.  They beat the Cardinals and the Seahawks lose to the 49ers, and suddenly they're only a game behind Seattle.

Chiefs (7-3) at Raiders (5-6): Kansas City-If not for the drops in the fourth quarter, Kansas City would've won the Super Bowl rematch and made the first of what they hope will be two trips to Las Vegas this season sitting at 8-2.  They still comfortably lead the AFC West, but the playoff seeds are a lot more jumbled now.  The Raiders suffered their first loss since the coaching change on Sunday, but played well against the Dolphins.  We'll see how they look against the Chiefs.

Bills (6-5) at Eagles (9-1): Philadelphia-Buffalo got a much-needed win over the Jets on Sunday and actually had the type of performance people were expecting from the Bills' offense.  They needed it, too.  Because they could NOT go into Philadelphia on a three-game losing streak.  Had that happened, the Eagles would've made it four.  How can you not say the Eagles are the best team in the league right now after what they did in the second half on Monday night?

Ravens (8-3) at Chargers (4-6): Baltimore-Want to know who the biggest winner was on Monday night?  It wasn't the Eagles.  It was the Ravens.  With the Kansas City loss, Baltimore moved into the No. 1 spot in the AFC.  It's only a half-game, of course, and the Ravens haven't had their bye yet, but they're still the ones in the driver's seat.  The Chargers have dropped back-to-back three-point games, but won two straight in primetime before that.  So, that likely means they'll give the Ravens a challenge.  I think Baltimore holds off that challenge, though.

Bears (3-8) at Vikings (6-5): Minnesota-Despite the loss in Denver on Sunday night, the Vikings are still holding down the final NFC wild card spot.  And their record in one-possession games over the past two seasons really is remarkable.  I'm expecting another one-score game against a Bears team that looked like it might pull the upset in Detroit.  If they actually do it in Minnesota, the Vikings' playoff position suddenly won't feel so comfortable.

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 102-62

2023 Picks, Week 11

There are no more international games on the NFL schedule this season, but there is one international game of significance this weekend--the Grey Cup.  More on that later.  As for what's happening on this side of the border, this is when things start to get serious.  Thanksgiving is when everyone starts paying attention to the playoff standings.  Although, if you've already taken a look, you'll see some surprises.  Which should set us up for a pretty good stretch run.

I'd also be willing to bet a lot will change between now and the end of the season, too.  It always does.  There's always that one team that goes on a run and ends up sneaking into a wild card spot.  And there's always that team that goes the other way.  Who will they be?

Thursday Night: Baltimore (Win)

Steelers (6-3) at Browns (6-3): Pittsburgh-The AFC North is so tight that every division game is doubly important.  The Ravens won on Thursday night, so the winner won't have a chance to move into first place.  They will both have an opportunity to solidify their standing as the top wild card team, though.  The Steelers beat the Browns on a Monday night in Week 2, and I like them to finish off the sweep against a Cleveland team that'll have to figure out the rest of the season without DeShaun Watson.

Bears (3-7) at Lions (7-2): Detroit-Three of Detroit's next four are against division rivals, and the Lions actually have five NFC North games remaining.  So, they've really got a chance to put the division away within the next few weeks.  Which is a crazy thing to be saying about the Lions, who'll actually be favored in their annual Thanksgiving game.  They'll go into that with an 8-2 record, and could even be tied with the Eagles for the best record in the NFC pending the result of the Monday night game.

Chargers (4-5) at Packers (3-6): Chargers-Let's be really honest about something.  It's been a long season in Green Bay.  The Packers have played some close ones (seemingly every week), but usually seem to come out on the wrong side of the result.  The Chargers also find themselves under .500, yet are still right in the thick of the jumbled AFC playoff race.  They lost that shootout against the Lions last week, so putting up points in Lambeau shouldn't be a problem.

Raiders (5-5) at Dolphins (6-3): Miami-Miami is having one of the weirdest seasons!  The Dolphins have played three games against a team with a winning record...and are 0-3 in those games.  Yet, they're in first place because of the Bills' struggles.  This week, they play a Raiders team that's 2-0 since the coaching change.  That should come with a little bit of an asterisk, though.  They beat both New York teams at home.  This will be Antonio Pierce's first real test.  And we'll see whether a team that enters the game at .500 goes on the undefeated side or the winless side of the Dolphins' ledger.

Giants (2-8) at Commanders (4-6): Washington-One of the Giants' wins this season came in their first meeting with the Commanders.  Their offense didn't exactly set the world on fire in that game.  It was 14-7.  Since then, the Giants have scored 10, 6 and 17.  And, frankly, I don't see it getting any better this season.  Especially since they don't have a quarterback.  Washington gets the season split.

Cowboys (6-3) at Panthers (1-8): Dallas-In Week 3, the Cowboys went into Arizona and lost to the Cardinals, arguably the worst team in the league.  Eight weeks later, they visit the team with the worst record in the league.  They won't get similarly caught off guard.  They've scored 43 and 49 points in their last two games against opponents who aren't the Eagles.  Expect them to put up plenty of points against Carolina, too.

Titans (3-6) at Jaguars (6-3): Jacksonville-Mike Vrabel's days may be numbered in Nashville.  They'll let him make it through the season.  I just have a feeling this'll be it.  Even with Derrick Henry, they've had trouble scoring all year.  Jacksonville's defense will almost certainly make sure that's an issue again this week.  The Jaguars took one on the chin against the 49ers, but San Francisco's a much different caliber opponent.

Cardinals (2-8) at Texans (5-4): Houston-When the schedule came out, the prevailing thought was that this game might help decide who gets the No. 1 pick in the Draft.  Well, that's not the case at all!  The Texans, in fact, currently hold the 7-seed in the AFC...and they're only a game behind Jacksonville in the division!  They're legit contenders who we'll have to keep an eye on over the season's final six weeks.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, actually are in the mix for the No. 1 pick.

Buccaneers (4-5) at 49ers (6-3): San Francisco-After three straight losses and a bye, the 49ers actually looked like the team from the first five games of the season last week.  They absolutely dominated Jacksonville.  Tampa Bay had a similarly strong showing against the Titans that has them sitting within a half-game of the first-place Saints.  The 49ers, however, have that huge Thanksgiving night matchup with the Seahawks.  They actually play two of their next three after this one against Seattle (with the Eagles in between).  They can't afford a loss here.

Jets (4-5) at Bills (5-5): Buffalo-Buffalo was considered a top Super Bowl contender heading into the season, but certainly hasn't played like it.  And, frankly, the Bills only have themselves to blame for their current predicament.  Case in point: the Broncos game.  This mysterious 2023 campaign started with a Week 1 Monday night loss to the Jets when they didn't even show up in the second half.  If they lose this one (which would make it three straight losses), they can almost kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.

Seahawks (6-3) at Rams (3-6): Seattle-Seattle's biggest game of the season is coming up on Thanksgiving night.  This one is just as important.  Why?  Because it's imperative that the Seahawks go into that matchup with the 49ers at 7-3.  And the only way they can do that is by taking care of business against the Rams.

Vikings (6-4) at Broncos (4-5): Minnesota-Minnesota is suddenly the hottest team in football.  After starting 1-4, the Vikings have won five in a row and are currently sitting in a playoff position.  The Broncos have suddenly thrust themselves into the discussion, too, with back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Bills.  Maybe Sean Payton will be able to turn this team around, after all.  It was curious that NBC didn't flex this game out, but there weren't really many options to replace it with.  And, maybe it'll turn out to be a good one like Broncos-Bills did.

Eagles (8-1) at Chiefs (7-2): Kansas City-ESPN snagged the most anticipated game of the regular season for the Monday night right before Thanksgiving.  The Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs, which was only made possible because of the 17th game (which is NFC East vs. AFC West this season).  I was one of many who thought they might use it to open the season, but holding it off until later in the season sure worked out.  They're currently both the No. 1 seed in their respective conference and a rematch in mid-February sure seems possible.  As for what'll happen this week, they're both coming off a bye, so no advantage there.  But the Chiefs are the home team, so I'll give them the nod because of that.

**BONUS GAME** GREY CUP
Blue Bombers (14-4) vs. Alouettes (11-7): Winnipeg-What's annoying about this year's Grey Cup is that it isn't on American TV.  This was the first year of the CFL's deal with CBS Sports Networkm but the package didn't include any playoff games.  Instead, it's only available via streaming.  The stream is free, so people can still watch it.  It's just dumb that their U.S. TV deal was only for regular season games.  Anyway, Montreal pulled off a MAJOR upset in the East Final, defeating the 16-2 Argonauts in Toronto.  Their reward was their first Grey Cup appearance since 2010, where they'll face a Winnipeg team looking for its third title in four seasons.  All credit to the Alouettes for making it here.  Beating the two best teams in the league in back-to-back weeks to claim the trophy is a very big task, though.  The Blue Bombers are building a dynasty.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 95-56

The Year's Best Players

How is Matt Olson not a finalist for NL MVP??!!  Acuna's gonna win.  As he should.  But you can't tell me Matt Olson wasn't one of the three best players in the National League this season.  I actually figured we might be looking at the Braves potentially going 1-2, or 1-3 at worst if you wanted to put Mookie Betts in between them.  Somehow, Freddie Freeman finished ahead of Olson, too, meaning the two Braves went 1-4 while the two Dodgers went 2-3.

Olson played in all 162 games and led the National League in both home runs and RBIs.  He also drew 104 walks, which was third in the NL.  He was also second in OPS (.993).  I know I go off about OPS all the time, but it's a stat that's listed on MLB.com, and it's a result of all the walks, as well as leading the National League in slugging (.604).  I'm sorry, but as great as Freddie Freeman is, he should not have finished above the guy who replaced him in Atlanta in NL MVP voting.

While I'm talking about Freeman, I might as well talk about his season.  Freeman had 211 hits, which ranked second behind Acuna, and finished one double shy of becoming the first player with 60 since 1936.  His durability was on display, too.  He played in every game but one and scored 131 runs.  All in all, it was another great year for the 2020 NL MVP.  It just happened to be the fourth-best season in the National League this year.

Freeman's season was the second-best by a Dodger in 2023.  Mookie Betts continued to prove that he's a special baseball player, and he truly put the "valuable" in Most Valuable Player.  He's a Gold Glove right fielder, but showed off his versatility, spending a lot of time at second base and even playing some shortstop.  It had no bearing on his offense, either.  Betts hit .307 and was one home run shy of a 40 homer-40 double campaign.

In any other year, we'd be talking about Mookie Betts as a slam dunk, runaway MVP.  This isn't any other year, though.  And what Ronald Acuna, Jr., did this season was truly remarkable.  He had the first 40/70 season in MLB history, finishing with 41 home runs and 73 stolen bases.  Acuna also led the National League in hits (217), runs (149), on base percentage (.416) and OPS (1.012), and his .337 batting average ranked second.  Atlanta's leadoff hitter, he was the catalyst for the Braves' record-setting offense.  Acuna played like an MVP all year, and his award will be well-deserved.

They let you go 10-deep on your ballot, though, so let's take a look at some other National Leaguers who put together outstanding seasons.  Juan Soto was a bright spot on a disappointing Padres team, playing in all 162 games and belting 35 homers to go along with 32 doubles.  He also walked a ridiculous 132 times.  Luis Arraez flirted with .400 for most of the first half before finishing at .354 in his first season with the Marlins, as Miami made the playoffs.  It was also a resurgent year for Cody Bellinger, who signed with the Cubs as a free agent after being cut loose by the Dodgers and hit .307 with 26 homers and 97 RBIs.

Another former MVP proved that there are many different ways to be valuable.  Bryce Harper missed the first two months of the season after offseason Tommy John surgery.  When he came back, he was playing first base, a position he'd never played before where the Phillies had a need.  Harper did his thing offensively and was so good defensively that it looks like the move will be permanent.  One of the reasons for that is because Nick Castellanos was outstanding in right field for Philadelphia.  Corbin Carroll was a unanimous Rookie of the Year, and his numbers definitely warrant some down-ballot MVP votes, as well.  Then there's Ozzie Albies, the third Brave worth mentioning.

Narrowing it down to 10 in the National League is actually a little bit of a challenge.  Those first four are clear.  Spots 5-10, not so much.  Here's what I think I'm going with, though: 1. Acuna, 2. Betts, 3. Olson, 4. Freeman, 5. Soto, 6. Bellinger, 7. Arraez, 8. Castellanos, 9. Albies, 10. Carroll.

It's already been firmly established that Shohei Ohtani is unlike anyone we've ever seen step on a baseball field before.  There's no other way to put it.  The only thing separating him from three straight MVP awards is a record-setting campaign by Aaron Judge last season.  Just taking the pitching out of the equation, he'd be the MVP front runner based on his offense alone.  He truly is a freak.

Ohtani's 2023 season ended in early September, but he'd already locked up the award by then.  Despite only playing in 135 games, his 44 home runs were five clear of the field.  Throw in 26 doubles and eight triples, and you've got the AL leader in total bases and slugging percentage.  He also drew 91 walks, drove in 95 runs and stole 20 bases.  That's just the offense.  Then when you throw in all of his pitching stats, which in many ways were just as dominant, and it's really not close.  Frankly, it's a little unfair.

As for the other two finalists, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, you almost have to talk about them together.  Because they're essentially a package deal.  They signed as free agents within 24 hours of each other in the winter of 2021-22 with the express goal of leading the Texas Rangers back to the top.  Mission accomplished.  The Rangers won the World Series for the first time in franchise history, led by their two free agent catalysts at the top of the lineup, who've proven to be worth every penny.

Semien played all 162 games.  That's a stat that cannot be overlooked in the modern game.  Especially when everyone else on the team missed time due to injury.  Semien did not, and he ended up leading the AL in at bats, runs and hits.  He also had 29 homers, 40 doubles and 100 RBIs while being named a Gold Glove finalist at second base.

Seager's one of those Rangers who missed time because of an injury.  He still nearly won the batting title and led the American League with 42 doubles.  Seager also had 33 home runs and 96 RBIs despite playing in just 119 games, and he was second to Ohtani in both slugging percentage and OPS.  The Rangers got everything they could've asked for out of their 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup.  That's why they're both MVP finalists.

There's actually a third Ranger worthy of being in the discussion, too.  Adolis Garcia was the MVP of the ALCS, but let's not discount what he did in the regular season, when ranked second in the AL in home runs, RBIs and runs scored.  Yandy Diaz, meanwhile, won the batting title and was the most consistent hitter on the Rays all season.  And, he often gets overshadowed because of the superstars around him in Houston, but Kyle Tucker might be the Astros' best overall hitter.  He had 37 doubles and led the American League with 112 RBIs.  Tucker's Astros teammate Alex Bregman had another MVP-caliber season, as well.

Coming off a playoff appearance and with Julio Rodriguez as the face of the franchise, this was supposed to be the start of something in Seattle.  It wasn't, but Rodriguez did his part, notching 32 homers, 37 doubles and 37 steals.  His numbers didn't light up the stat sheet, but Adley Rutschman was absolutely the key player in Baltimore winning 101 games.  And, even though their teams were bad, that didn't stop Bobby Witt, Jr., and Rafael Devers.  As I said yesterday when discussing the Cy Young, the Yankees were also bad.  Just imagine how much worse they would've been without Gerrit Cole.

The top spot here is obvious.  Ohtani will win, and it could be unanimous.  I'm putting Rangers 2-3-4 behind him.  It was a really strong year for the AL West as a whole, in fact, because the division dominates my top 10, capturing seven of the 10 places: 1. Ohtani, 2. Semien, 3. Seager, 4. Garcia, 5. Tucker, 6. Rodriguez, 7. Cole, 8. Bregman, 9. Rutschman, 10. Diaz.

The Year's Best Pitchers

In this dumpster fire of a Yankees season, there was one bright spot.  Gerrit Cole.  On a team that finished 82-80, he was 15-4.  The Yankees went 23-10 in his starts...and 59-70 in games started by anyone else!  Without Cole, this season would've been even more of a mess.  This is the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting when they made Cole their prize free agent signing in 2020.  He pitched every bit like the ace he is, and he was far and away the best pitcher in the American League this season.  Which is why Cole's a lock to win his first career Cy Young Award.  And, frankly, it won't be close.  It will almost certainly be unanimous.

Cole wasn't just the best pitcher in the American League.  He was the best pitcher in baseball.  I actually think he got some MVP votes, too.  To put his year in perspective, Cole led the Majors in WHIP, was one of only two pitchers (along with Framber Valdez) to throw two shutouts, finished second in the Majors in ERA, third in innings and third in batting average against (all of which led the AL), fifth in strikeouts and tied for sixth in wins.  And there were long stretches where he was dominant.  Which he had to be.  Because the team wasn't good on the four days he wasn't pitching.

Sonny Gray is a finalist despite going just 8-8.  You know my thoughts on pitchers who are .500 being in the Cy Young discussion, but I realize that ship sailed a long time ago.  Anyway, Gray was second in ERA behind Cole, and that's really all I've got.  Well, that and the fact that he only gave up eight home runs in 32 starts, so, basically, one every fourth game.

Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays is the third finalist.  He was incredibly consistent for Toronto and led the AL with 237 strikeouts.  Gausman was also fourth in ERA and finished with a 12-9 record in 31 starts.  His numbers during his two seasons in Toronto are remarkably similar, in fact, yet last year he was only ninth in Cy Young voting.  This year, he's top three after leading the Blue Jays to the playoffs.  Gausman and Chris Bassitt were one of the best 1-2's in baseball, and you could make the argument that Bassitt also deserves some Cy Young votes.  

Bassitt threw 200 innings and tied for the American League lead with 16 wins.  He was tied with Zach Eflin of the Rays, who emerged as Tampa Bay's ace after Shane McClanahan went down.  Luis Castillo of the Mariners, meanwhile, went 14-9 with a 3.34 ERA (fifth in the AL) and 219 strikeouts.  Framber Valdez went just 12-11, but had outstanding numbers otherwise, and he threw a no-hitter this season.  And Shohei Ohtani continued his two-way excellence, even if he only made 23 starts before having to shut it down as a pitcher.  Let's not forget Orioles closer Felix Bautista, either.  He was outstanding for the best team in the AL!  Bautista had 33 saves and eight wins, his WHIP was under 1.00, his ERA was 1.48, and he had a ridiculous 110 strikeouts in 61 innings!

I was so impressed with what Bautista did this season, in fact, that I've got him at No. 2 behind Cole on my "ballot."  I almost went completely off the board, but I do have Gausman just ahead of Castillo in third.  Gray wasn't even on my radar.  I had Pablo Lopez pegged as the Twin who'd get Cy Young support.  My fifth choice is actually Valdez, and I've got Ohtani ahead of Gray, too.

As for the actual voting results, there's absolutely no question Cole will be the winner.  You have to go all the way back to Roger Clemens in 2001 for the last time a Yankee won, and Cole will become just the second Yankee to win in the 45 years since Sparky Lyle and Ron Guidry went back-to-back.  I'd imagine Gausman was probably second and Gray third, but it was probably unanimous for third time in four years.

The National League also has a clear favorite in the Padres' Blake Snell, who won the AL award with the Rays in 2018.  Only six men have taken home the Cy Young in both leagues.  It seems likely that Snell will become the seventh.  It's also entirely possible that he'll be chosen unanimously, too, making it two years in a row that both Cy Young winners were unanimous after Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara last season.

Snell actually didn't get off to that great a start this season, either.  He didn't even make the NL All*Star team.  However, he more than made up for it in the second half.  Snell's last four months were outstanding!  He had an ERA of 2.25, which is incredible enough.  His ERA over his final 23 starts?  1.20!  He gave up just 45 earned runs in 32 starts.  That's what I call dominant!

Everything I said about Cole and the Yankees also applies to Snell and the Padres.  The team had high expectations that it didn't come anywhere close to meeting.  In San Diego, the pitching staff was NOT the problem.  Snell did his part.  He went 14-9 with 234 strikeouts and held opponents to a .181 batting average.  Snell did walk a lot of guys (99), but once they were on base, they stayed there.  Although, that did contribute to the fact he only threw 180 innings, by far the fewest among the finalists.

If not for Snell's dominance over the second half of the season, a strong case could be made for Zac Gallen.  The Diamondbacks' ace started the All*Star Game, and he didn't miss a start, taking the ball 34 times.  As we saw during the postseason, Arizona didn't have much behind him and Merrill Kelly, so they needed him to do exactly that.  Gallen tossed 210 innings, struck out 220 and went 17-9 for a Diamondbacks team that would not have ended up in the World Series without him.

San Francisco's Logan Webb is the third finalist and, frankly, I'm not entirely sure why.  I mean, it's because he finished third in the voting, obviously.  I just don't understand how.  He led the Majors in innings (216) and tossed two complete games, but he finished below .500 (11-13) for a Giants team that missed the playoffs.  That can partially be blamed on run support, and Webb did finish fourth in the NL in ERA (3.25), but batters hit .248 against him.

Personally, I think Spencer Strider should've been the third finalist.  He was the only 20-game winner in baseball, and that's not just because he had the Braves' offense behind him.  Strider led the Majors with 281 strikeouts and held opponents to a .210 average.  Justin Steele of the Cubs was probably one of the leading contenders at the All*Star break before cooling off in the second half.  He still finished 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA, though.  And 2021 winner Corbin Burnes put together another solid season in Milwaukee, notching 200 strikeouts.  Mets rookie Kodai Senga, meanwhile, had a sub-3.00 ERA and became the team's ace after Verlander and Scherzer were traded.

My top three in the National League are pretty clear.  Snell, Gallen, Strider in that order.  Steele gets a fourth-place vote from me, but, sorry, I can't overlook Webb's record.  Which is why my fifth-place vote goes to Burnes.

The Year's Best Managers

All I have to say about NL Manager of the Year is that I hope Craig Counsell doesn't win.  Not because he doesn't deserve it.  But because it would be incredibly awkward.  He left the Brewers only to stay within the division with the Cubs, who hadn't fired David Ross yet and wouldn't do so until Counsell agreed to a deal.  I mean, managers change jobs all the time and Counsell's contract was up, so he was free to explore other offers.  I just hope they're not put in what would be a very unique situation (although, Joe Girardi did win Manager of the Year after getting fired one year).

Counsell's become a regular among NL Manager of the Year finalists.  He's been runner-up three times, but never won the award.  I think he's looking at another year where he's a finalist, but doesn't win.  Which doesn't mean Counsell didn't do an outstanding job in Milwaukee yet again.  The Brewers won 92 games, won the NL Central, and made the playoffs for the fifth time in six years.  Really, it'll be fascinating to see how he does with a big-market team like the Cubs.

So, if Counsell's not gonna win, who will?  The other two finalists both come from the NL East, and they've both got a solid argument to make.  First-year Marlins manager Skip Schumaker led Miami to its first playoff berth in a non-shortened season since 2003, while Brian Snitker's Braves were the Class of Baseball all season.

Everybody knew Atlanta would be good, so it's easy to overlook the job Snitker did this year.  But, frankly, as Joe Torre and Dave Roberts can attest, one of the hardest jobs as a manager is to take a team everyone knows is good and surpass those expectations.  That's exactly what the Braves did, though.  Atlanta used that record-setting offense to win 104 games and win the NL East, one of the strongest divisions in baseball, going away.  Sure, they crashed out in the playoffs.  But this is a regular season honor.

As great a job as Snitker did, Manager of the Year usually tends to go to the skipper of a team that was unexpectedly good.  And that team would be the Miami Marlins.  They won 84 games, which doesn't sound like a lot.  But it was enough to make the playoffs with a payroll that's a fraction of some other teams.  Keeping the Marlins relevant is challenging enough, let alone finishing with a winning record.  Making the playoffs is the icing on the cake.  They did it in the COVID season of 2020, but doing it in a full season for the first time in two decades was something else entirely.

Personally, I don't think this is that close.  Snitker and Counsell were great, but Schumaker is the clear winner here.  I think this top three is spot-on, but I can't go without acknowledging two other managers who would've also warranted consideration.  This was supposed to be a "down" year for the Dodgers.  Dave Roberts led them to another division title anyway.  And everything I said about Skip Schumaker and the Marlins can also be applied to Torey Lovullo and the Diamondbacks, who made the playoffs on the last day of the season and ultimately ended up in the World Series.

For me, Schumaker is a clear No. 1.  Snitker is my No. 2, with Counsell third.  I not only think Schumaker should win, I think he will, joining Jack McKeon, Joe Girardi and Don Mattingly as NL Managers of the Year from the Marlins.  (Side note: it's crazy how neither 2022 Manager of the Year--Buck Showalter or Terry Francona--will be managing that same team on Opening Day 2024.  Shows the fickle nature of the business.)

While I think Schumaker's a pretty easy call in the National League, I have no idea who'll win in the American League.  It's the only one of the eight awards where I can legitimately say that.  It should come down to Bruce Bochy and Brandon Hyde, but it wouldn't totally surprise me if Kevin Cash wins for the third time in four years.  One thing I know, though, is that they also nailed it with the top three in the AL.  They got it right on all six Manager of the Year finalists.

In fact, I'm struggling to come up with other names who might've gotten votes in the AL.  Rocco Baldelli for leading the Twins to the AL Central title?  Maybe.  John Schneider for taking the Blue Jays to the playoffs?  Perhaps.  But that's about all I've got.  And those two are nowhere near as deserving as the top three.

I made the point about Counsell being a perpetual finalist in the National League, so I might as well say the same thing about Kevin Cash.  He's got a chance to become first manager to win the award three times in four years after leading Tampa Bay to its fifth straight postseason appearance.  The Rays started the season 13-0 and finished with 99 wins, one shy of the franchise record.  They went neck-and-neck with Baltimore all year before ending up as a wild card.

The Rays ended up as a wild card team because the Orioles won 101 games and their first division title since 2014.  Baltimore rode the momentum it built at the end of last season and turned it into a ridiculously fun ride that lasted all year.  The AL East was the toughest division in baseball, and it was the Orioles who came out on top.  Baltimore lost 115, 108 and 110 games in three straight full seasons from 2018-21.  Hyde, frankly, should've won the award last year, when they had 84 wins.  This year, the Orioles increased that total by 17 for their first 100-win season in more than 40 years.

Then there's Bruce Bochy, who was getting the itch to manage again after leading France in the WBC qualifiers and the Rangers were able to coax out of retirement.  He was exactly what that team needed.  Texas started hot and led the AL West pretty much all season before a poor September led to the Astros catching them (not that it mattered in the end for the World Series champions).  The future Hall of Famer did this with a starting rotation that was completely remade at the trade deadline and a bullpen that was considered an "issue" most of the season.  It was the Rangers' first winning season since 2016 and it, of course, ended with their first championship.

Frankly, I can go either way on Hyde and Bochy.  If ever there was a case for co-winners, this might be it.  If I have to give an edge, though, I'll give it ever so slightly to Hyde.  Baltimore held off the charge and Texas didn't.  That's why he gets the nod.  Plus, this is a regular season award, so the Rangers' Division Series sweep of the Orioles doesn't factor in.  Neither does their Wild Card Series sweep of the Rays, whose manager, Cash, I'm placing third on my ballot.

This is the one award where there will actually be some suspense leading up to the announcement.  I do think it'll ultimately go to Hyde, but Bochy will be a very close second.  If it goes the other way, though, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

The Year's Best Rookies

Throughout the playoffs and World Series, pretty much every time Corbin Carroll came up to bat, he was referred to as the "presumptive NL Rookie of the Year."  I mean, we've known that since like July, but it's not official until it's official.  So, the suspense has pretty much been taken out.  He won't just be the NL Rookie of the Year, it'll likely be unanimous.

That's the only problem with these hour-long, televised announcements on MLB Network.  They have to stretch it out and talk about the other two guys like there's actually a chance they might win, only to anticlimactically tell us something we've all already known for weeks.  I mean, I get why they do it and have no problem with it.  It's just better if there's some uncertainty about who'll win.

So, if you were holding out hope that James Outman or Kodai Senga might pull off the upset, sorry, neither of them won.  One of them did finish second, though.  And, frankly, I have no idea which one it was.  Senga made the All*Star team in his first season after coming over from Japan and was essentially the only starting pitcher the Mets had left after they traded Verlander and Scherzer.  Outman, meanwhile, took over the Dodgers' center field job from Cody Bellinger and ended up with 20 homers and 15 steals.

There are a few other National League rookies worthy of being in the discussion, too.  Nolan Jones of the Rockies nearly hit .300 and had 20 homers.  Spencer Steer of the Reds, meanwhile, is a big reason why Cincinnati decided to move on from Joey Votto.  He played 156 games and led all NL rookies with 86 RBIs.  He also had more doubles and nearly as many home runs as Carroll.  And let's not forget Outman's Dodgers teammate Bobby Miller.  He was called up at the end of May and helped solidify a rotation that was decimated by injuries, going 11-4 in 22 starts.

None of them compare to Corbin Carroll, though.  He had a cup of coffee last September, and that was a sign to a lot of people that the Diamondbacks were capable of turning it around this season.  Well, they were right about both Arizona and Carroll.  He became the first rookie in MLB history with 20-plus home runs and 50-plus stolen bases, and he also had 10 triples!  Throw in his elite defense at multiple outfield positions, and it's easy to see why he'll be the runaway (likely unanimous) winner.

What's really amazing about Carroll, though, actually has nothing to do with him as a player.  The Diamondbacks have been around for 25 years, but have never had a Rookie of the Year.  They're the only team in the Majors that hasn't.  Until now.  Corbin Carroll will be the first.  (The Diamondbacks will become the third team with only one, joining the Pirates and Rockies.)

As for how I think the voting will probably go, I think Senga was second and Outman finished third.  That's not how I would've voted, though.  I'd obviously have Carroll No. 1.  And I'd have Senga No. 2.  But the third spot on my ballot doesn't go to Outman.  It goes to Steer.

Over in the American League, there's slightly more suspense.  I say slightly only because I don't think they winner is as obvious as Carroll.  I actually think this is a bit of a two-horse race between Gunnar Henderson and Triston Casas.  Henderson should be the clear favorite, though.

Last year, Adley Rutschman established himself as the Orioles' franchise player, and he was joined in September by Henderson--who replaced him as Baltimore's top prospect.  It was clear from that one month that Henderson not only wasn't going back to the Minors, but that he'd be a favorite for Rookie of the Year this season.  And he certainly lived up to the hype, leading all AL rookies in home runs, RBIs and triples, and finishing second in doubles and hits.  He also scored 100 runs, which ranked sixth in the entire American League.

While I think Henderson should be the runaway winner, it may not be unanimous like in the National League.  That's because an argument could definitely be made for Casas.  He was hitting .128 at the end of April, yet ended up with a .263 batting average.  Casas also walked a lot, and he finished with an on-base percentage of .367, and his 24 home runs trailed only Henderson among AL rookies.  However, his season ended in mid-September, which is why I can't give him the nod.

The third finalist is Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee.  I don't know how the Guardians keep turning out starting pitchers, but they ended up with a rotation made up entirely of rookies by June.  Bibee ended up anchoring that rotation, making 25 starts and tossing 142 innings.  He finished with a sub-3.00 ERA and had a 10-4 record.  Cleveland didn't make the playoffs, but Bibee's a big reason why they stayed in contention until September.

Those three were the top finishers, but they were far from the only rookies in the American League worthy of being in the discussion.  Casas, frankly, isn't even the only Red Sox player worthy of mention.  Masataka Yoshida led all AL rookies with 155 hits, 33 doubles and a .289 batting average.  Yainer Diaz emerged as the Astros' catcher of the future.  And, had he not broken his thumb in August and missed six weeks, we'd probably be talking about Josh Jung as a co-favorite along with Henderson.  Jung got a World Series ring, though, so he likely won't be too upset about not being the Rookie of the Year.

It seems pretty clear to me who this season's American League Rookie of the Year is, though.  The Orioles were unexpectedly good last season, then finished with the best record in the AL this year.  Gunnar Henderson's emergence as a regular in the lineup was a big reason why.  His season will be rewarded with the AL Rookie of the Year award.

I'm glad I'm not actually a voter for AL Rookie of the Year.  Because I'm not sure who I'd put behind Henderson.  But, since I've got to go with somebody, I'll say Casas 2 and Bibee 3, with Yoshida a very close fourth.  Although, a full year of Josh Jung might've resulted in a very different conversation. 

2023 Picks, Week 10

You know, I've gotta give the NFL credit for something.  They are committed.  No matter how many times they have an opportunity to flex bad teams out of prime time, which is the entire point of flex scheduling, they simply won't do it.  In fact, it seems like they keep the original game just to spite people, knowing they'll watch it anyway.  How else can you explain the abundance of the Bears and the Raiders in prime time?  This week, they're joined in prime time by the Broncos, since they apparently didn't learn that lesson last year.

Thursday Night: Carolina (Loss)

Colts (4-5) vs Patriots (2-7): Indianapolis-Game No. 5 of the International Series and Game No. 2 in Germany pits the Colts against the Patriots.  It's nowhere near as good as last week's Dolphins-Chiefs matchup, but there was little chance of that happening regardless of who the two teams were.  This, of course, used to be THE matchup in the AFC when it was Manning vs. Brady.  Neither team is anywhere near the level of those glory days right now.  The Colts are less bad, though, so I'm going with them.

Texans (4-4) at Bengals (5-3): Cincinnati-The Bengals sure have recovered from that brutal start.  They've won four straight, the last three against playoff teams from last season, and are currently holding down a wild card spot.  The Texans, meanwhile, won what might've been the NFL's game of the year so far last week.  They've alternated wins and losses, so they really do seem to be a different team every week.  Last week was good.  Which probably means this week will be bad.

Saints (5-4) at Vikings (5-4): Minnesota-After a slow start, the Vikings have definitely found their groove.  They've won four straight, which includes a victory last week after they lost Kurt Cousins for the year.  As a result, they're very much in the playoff conversation.  Winning the NFC North is actually conceivable, too.  Winning the division is also very conceivable for New Orleans in a weak NFC South, which will still be the case even after the Saints fall to 5-5.

Packers (3-5) at Steelers (5-3): Pittsburgh-Crazy as it sounds, the Steelers hold the three-way tiebreaker with the Browns and Bengals, so they're the top AFC wild card team right now.  That's certainly not what I expected at midseason.  But, it's Mike Tomlin, so should we really be surprised?  Anyway, they've got a great chance of making that 6-3 against the Packers, who, how do I put this mildly?, have struggled in Year 1 After Aaron.  They did beat the Rams, though, so maybe that was the start of something.

Titans (3-5) at Buccaneers (3-5): Tampa Bay-Both of these teams could use a win.  Tampa Bay has lost four straight after starting 3-1, but the last three of those have been by a combined 12 points.  So, they're right there pretty much every week.  The Titans got that win over Atlanta, then went to Pittsburgh five days later and lost.  As a result, they head into this game with identical 3-5 records.  The Bucs have a much better chance of jumping back into the division race at 4-5.

49ers (5-3) at Jaguars (6-2): San Francisco-Remember when the 49ers were 5-0 and everybody thought they were the best team in football?  Yeah, that was a month ago!  San Francisco lost three straight heading into its bye, and things won't get much easier in Jacksonville.  The Jaguars come off their bye riding a five-game winning streak and have a two-game lead in the AFC South.  This should be a tight one (that, frankly, should've been flexed into Sunday night instead of Jets-Raiders).  I'm giving the slight edge to the 49ers.

Browns (5-3) at Ravens (7-2): Baltimore-As things currently stand, all four AFC North teams would be in the playoffs.  While I don't think that'll still be the case at the end of the season, they'll all be in contention for the rest of the year.  Which makes division games doubly important.  Fortunately for the Ravens, they're two clear of the field.  Which means Baltimore can further distance itself this week.  They've got two home division games in five days against the Browns and Bengals.  So, we'll know by Friday if they have the inside track on the division crown or not.

Falcons (4-5) at Cardinals (1-8): Atlanta-Kyler Murray returns for the Cardinals this week.  It's obviously way too late for him to save Arizona's season, but this is at least his chance to save his job since the Cardinals will presumably have a very high draft pick and are a definite contender for No. 1 overall.  The Falcons, meanwhile, need to keep taking advantage of their winnable games.  Because as long as they hover around .500, that'll be enough to stay near the top of the NFC South standings.

Lions (6-2) at Chargers (4-4): Detroit-Don't look now, but here come the Chargers.  They've won two in a row, looked impressive in both, and are now back at .500 on the season.  Those two games were against the Bears and Jets, though.  The Lions are a completely different caliber of opponent.  This one will be a challenge.  Detroit has been proving all season that the hype was completely justified.  Can you say 7-2 Lions?

Giants (2-7) at Cowboys (5-3): Dallas-If this year wasn't already going bad enough for the Giants, their starting quarterback is now an undrafted rookie.  Although, Tommy DeVito is definitely a name that's pretty common in Northern New Jersey, so in that regard, he'll fit right in.  This is also probably the last we've seen of Daniel Jones in a Giants uniform, since they'll now almost certainly draft a quarterback in April.  Anyway, as you can tell, I don't think very highly of their chances for the rest of the season.  Especially this week.  They're the lowest-scoring team in the NFL and got shut out the first time they played the Cowboys.

Commanders (4-5) at Seahawks (5-3): Seattle-Seattle was sitting pretty, then went to Baltimore and got absolutely thumped last week!  Was it a one-game glitch or did the Ravens expose something?  I think it's more likely they just had a bad game.  It's also important to note that they're back at home this week.  The 12th Man is a very valuable advantage for the Seahawks.  One they will fully exploit against Washington.

Jets (4-4) at Raiders (4-5): Las Vegas-Well, I sure was wrong about the Raiders' first game under Antonio Pierce.  It might've been the fact that they were playing the Giants, but they looked like a completely different team!  I'm not saying it's gonna last, but for a week anyway, the coaching change looked like a stroke of genius!  Can they keep it up as Met Life Stadium's other tenant pays a visit to Sin City?  There's no reason to think they won't.

Broncos (3-5) at Bills (5-4): Buffalo-For a team that was a popular Super Bowl pick in the preseason, the Bills sure haven't looked like it recently.  They needed a late touchdown to beat the Giants, lost to the Patriots, weren't great against Tampa, then lost again in Cincinnati on Sunday night.  As a result, they're currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in.  They've still got Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas and Miami left (as well as division games against Jets and Patriots teams they already lost to this season).  So, beating Denver is absolutely imperative.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 85-52

Who To Sign

Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman both gave "State of the Yankees" press conferences this week.  Cashman's was rosy, optimistic and, frankly, completely detached from the reality of the 2023 season.  Steinbrenner was more direct, saying that last season was unacceptable and there will be some changes.  I think he meant regarding front office personnel and the coaching staff, but we also know the Yankees' roster will look significantly different in 2024.

Now that Hot Stove season is about to get underway, it's time to start thinking about what some of those roster changes might be.  Plenty of names have already been thrown out there, some of which make more sense than others.  Some who would be perfect fits, some who would not.  And some who would be perfect placeholders.

One of those perfect placeholders is Kevin Kiermaier.  Kiermaier's name has been mentioned a lot lately, and it's easy to see why.  Because he's a guy you can absolutely envision wearing Yankee pinstripes next season.

They know Kiermaier well.  He's an elite center fielder who's spent his entire career in the AL East with the Rays and Blue Jays.  So they know what they'd be getting.  He's not a great hitter, but so what?  You can bat him ninth.  Jasson Dominguez is the center fielder of the future, but he's out until the All*Star break at the earliest, probably longer.  Signing Kiermaier to a one-year deal won't change that.  He'd be a reliable stopgap while they wait for Dominguez (yes, he's pretty much the left-handed equivalent of Harrison Bader, but they need a center fielder to start the season, so I'm all for a Kiermaier signing).

Of course, there's another center field option who gives them the opportunity to make a very old-school "Yankees" move.  The type of signing George Steinbrenner would make.  Former National League MVP Cody Bellinger, who, get this, is a left-handed power hitter.  A left-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium?!  What a concept!

Bellinger, who resurrected his career last season with the Cubs, will obviously be far more costly than Kiermaier.  He'll probably command a multi-year deal, too.  I can definitely see it, though, even if Bellinger isn't exactly an ideal fit.  Signing him for one year obviously means he plays center field next season.  If the only way to get Bellinger is with a multi-year deal, though, it would actually give them several options beyond just 2024.

He can also play first base.  A very important detail since Anthony Rizzo doesn't really have a backup, an issue that was heavily exposed last season.  Rizzo is only signed thru 2024.  So, it's very conceivable that, if they decide to move on from Rizzo, Bellinger just slides over to first base in 2025 when Dominguez reclaims the center field job full-time.  Or, he could slide over and fill the left field vacancy that they've had for about three years.  (Bellinger has never played left field, but is athletic enough that I don't think it would be an issue.)

It sounds like they're finally gonna do something about left field this winter.  I've heard rumors of a Gleyber Torres-for-Alex Verdugo trade, which I think is a terrible idea.  For a few reasons (which I'll get into in a minute).  That's not the answer, though.  Especially because if they want to really make an old-school Yankees move, they'll swing a blockbuster trade with the Padres for Juan Soto.

Soto is a 25-year-old, in-his-prime superstar who, along with Judge and Dominguez, would solidify the Yankees' outfield for the next decade.  Most importantly, he's a left-handed hitter they could insert right into the middle of the lineup.  It'll take a lot to get Soto.  Somebody like an Everon Pereira and/or an Oswald Peraza.  If it means they can get Soto, though, I say do it.

Another player being discussed is Soto's Padres teammate Josh Hader.  Hader will have plenty of suitors.  The Yankees should be right at the top of that list.  This is a team that has historically had elite closers like Goose Gossage, Dave Righetti, Aroldis Chapman and, of course, the greatest ever, Mariano Rivera.  Nothing against Clay Holmes, but he's not any of them.  And, frankly, he's no Josh Hader either.  Bring in Hader, make Holmes the setup man, and maybe the bullpen will actually be as good as everybody thinks it is.

The Yankees have five catchers on the 40-man roster.  At least two of them figure to be moved.  Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt appear to be the most likely candidates.  Whether it be for Soto or someone else.  They also have a "surplus" of infielders that they may want to alleviate by making a trade.  I'm strongly against trading Gleyber Torres, however.  Especially since I don't think the "surplus" is nearly as bad as some others.

Like left field, third base has been a problem area.  Well, third base became a problem area because of the Josh Donaldson trade, but I digress.  Anyway, Matt Chapman has been floated around as a possibility, but I'm not on board with that one.  Because, again, I think third base doesn't need to be addressed as much as other areas.  Not when they can address third base and the infield "surplus" at the same time.

For most of the last two seasons, they had five infielders for four spots, plus Stanton and Judge.  That meant that, unless Stanton and Judge were both in the outfield, somebody had to sit.  Of course, they had to deal with injuries and the fact that Donaldson was God awful, which made that less of an issue.  But it's not an issue right now, either.  Because they can simply make D.J. LeMahieu the starting third baseman, giving them a regular infield of LeMahieu, Volpe, Torres and Rizzo.  No need to bring in somebody else and try to figure out a way to get enough at-bats for both of the second basemen who are regulars in the lineup.

Finally, there's the pitching staff.  They need a solid No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole, and I expect a full-court press to sign Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  They could very well end up getting into a bidding war with the Mets for Yamamoto, but I say you go for it, then pivot should he pick someone else.  They're also reportedly considering bringing Frankie Montas back, to which I say "Why?"  If they're gonna re-sign one of their free agent starting pitchers, I'd prefer Luis Severino.  He'll obviously be looking for a bounce-back, so I'd be OK with keeping him on a one-year deal to see if he can get back to the form that made him a two-time All*Star.

Although, there is one potential Yankees reunion that has fans salivating.  Jordan Montgomery.  The Montgomery-for-Bader trade didn't make sense to a lot of people when it happened at the 2022 trade deadline, and it looked even worse when Yankees fans had to watch Montgomery have an outstanding postseason while helping lead the Rangers to the title.  Bringing Montgomery back would give Cashman a mulligan and create a rotation that could possibly look like this: Cole, Montgomery, Yamamoto, Rodon, Cortes/King/Schmidt.

Needless to say, Brian Cashman will be busy this offseason.  Hal's giving him a chance to fix it.  The last time he had a chance to fix it after a bad season, he got CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira and won a World Series.  That was 15 years ago.  They haven't been back since.  This might be the last chance he gets.

Rugby Expansion the Right Call

I debated a few topics for today's post.  Baseball teams have made their tender/non-tender decisions with players who had option years, and Hot Stove season is now truly set to begin.  But next week will be pretty much all about baseball with the awards being announced, so I'll take a little break from that today.  There's also some Winter Olympic news--for both 2026 and 2030.  Martina Navratilova suggested the WTA needs new leadership.  And, of course, there's the mess at Michigan that keeps getting messier.

But I'm not gonna talk about any of those.  Instead, I'll talk about the Rugby World Cup, which just came to an end in France.  It was the last Rugby World Cup to feature just 20 teams.  Right before the final, they confirmed the long-rumored expansion to 24 teams for the next edition in 2027, along with a few other changes.  All of which are necessary and welcome.

The top three teams in each pool automatically qualify for the next Rugby World Cup, which means 12 spots are already accounted for immediately after the previous tournament ends!  Granted, that guarantees most (all?) of the top nations will be in the tournament without having to worry about qualifying.  But making all of the non-qualified teams compete for just eight spots definitely made it unnecessarily tough.  By expanding that to 12 teams, they aren't just opening it up for increased representation, they're making it so that four good teams don't miss out.

There have been suggestions that the expansion to 24 is because the United States didn't qualify for this year's tournament.  Did that have something to do with it?  Perhaps.  Was it the only reason?  Of course not!  It's more because it was just time.  The Rugby World Cup hadn't expanded since going from 16 in 1995 to 20 in 1999.  It took them 28 years to add four more teams!

Ensuring global representation isn't an issue, either.  The 12 countries that automatically qualified based on their finish this year represent all five regions (the Americas count as one, and, in fact, both the U.S. & Canada didn't qualify so there weren't even any North American teams in France).  And they can easily set it up where the four extra teams come from a combination of directly through continental qualifying and/or through the final qualification tournament.

Then there's the schedule.  This year's tournament lasted seven weeks!  They played 48 games in 49 days.  World Rugby has acknowledged that's entirely too long.  Adding four teams will actually reduce the length of the tournament by a week while simultaneously increasing the total number of games.

A shorter tournament is an absolute necessity!  One of the reasons the FIFA World Cup is so popular is because the tournament only lasts just over a month.  The Rugby World Cup is too drawn out with too many off days between games.  It's enough to make even the most hard-core fans lose interest, let alone fans in places like the U.S. (where getting people to care was already gonna be a challenge without them in the tournament).  And they need American fans to care heading into 2031, when they'll be trying to fill NFL stadiums during football season.

One of the reasons the tournament lasted so long was because group play took forever!  Four groups of five meant everybody was playing four games.  However, the odd number also meant that one team in each group had to have a bye on each matchday, which meant a long gap between games.  There was also a minimum number of off days teams were required to have between games, so they all got pretty much an entire week off.  The result was a month-long group stage!

They haven't decided exactly what the new format will be, but let's, for argument's sake, say they do six groups of four, which is the most logical route.  I think that minimum number of days between games is five, so it's easy enough to play both games in a group, give them their five days off while each of the other groups play, then they go again.  And, since it's an even number of teams, no byes are necessary.  They all play every sixth day.  And that takes only 18 days to complete (19 if they have the opening game as a standalone event).

Going to six groups of four would also necessitate the addition of a round of 16, which isn't a bad thing, either.  Under the old format, they went right from group play to the quarterfinals, which resulted in some pretty good teams being eliminated before the knockout stage.  That would be far less likely this way, and it wouldn't increase the number of games a team has to play, either.  They'd simply be replacing the fourth group game with a fourth knockout game, but it would still be seven total for the two finalists.  (And they could easily adjust the automatic qualifying for the next edition by increasing it from 12 teams to the 16 that reach the knockout round.)

Another benefit of six groups of four is that it'll create a more balanced tournament.  With only four groups, there was really no way to avoid top teams facing each other in group play.  But they also seeded it based on the results of the previous tournament, with the draw taking place three years ahead of time.  As a result, there were three top-five teams in Pool B (#1 Ireland, #2 South Africa, #5 Scotland), guaranteeing one wouldn't make the quarterfinals.  Meanwhile, #7 Fiji was the highest-ranked team in Pool C.

Not only that, but the automatic qualifiers were seeded 1-12, regardless of their ranking.  That's not really much of an issue.  But what it essentially guaranteed was that the eight nations that had to go through qualifying had absolutely no chance!  Sure, they'd play each other.  But their reward for qualifying was getting their butts kicked by at least two of the world powers!  Playing them would be cool, but that's about the extent of the benefit.

For 2027, the draw won't be made until much closer to the start of the tournament.  That, along with spreading the teams across six groups rather than four should even things out a little.  And, even though there will be four additional teams, the lower-ranked nations will actually go in thinking they have a chance.  Only playing three group games, not four, and the addition of a round of 16 suddenly make advancing to the knockout round attainable.  THAT's how you grow the game.  Not having them get slaughtered by New Zealand or South Africa or England or Australia.

So, I see nothing but positives in World Rugby's decision to increase the Rugby World Cup field to 24 teams in 2027.  Frankly, it's long overdue.  The tournament in France was great.  The tournament four years from now in Australia should be even better.  Because those four additional teams should make the event more competitive, not less.

2023 Picks, Week 9

As we officially hit the midway point of the season, all four AFC division leaders have the same record.  And two of those 6-2 teams--the Dolphins and Chiefs--will meet in the NFL's first-ever game in Frankfurt.  That sure worked out, didn't it?!  Another team that's 6-2 is the Lions, who are on their bye this week, but have the second-best record in the NFC and sure look like they'll be hosting a playoff game at Ford Field for the first time (although, I must correct something Joe Buck said on Monday night...there has been a playoff game there before--Super Bowl XL).

Thursday Night: Pittsburgh (Win)

Dolphins (6-2) vs. Chiefs (6-2): Kansas City-When they NFL picked this one for its first game in Frankfurt, they knew they were giving the German fans a good one.  I don't think they anticipated just how good, though.  The Frankfurt Galaxy were the only team that operated in all 15 years of NFL Europe's existence, and now the Waldstadion, site of three World Bowls, gets to host a regular season NFL game.  As for how it'll go, Miami's played a soft schedule so far, with its only two losses coming to its two best opponents--Buffalo and Philadelphia.  The Chiefs are definitely more in that class than the class of the Dolphins' other opponents.  That, and I think it's incredibly unlikely they play two duds in a row.

Vikings (4-4) at Falcons (4-4): Atlanta-Kirk Cousins is out, so the Vikings went and traded for Arizona's quarterback.  He's got a big task in front of him, keeping the momentum going for a team that's won four out of five, with only a seven-point loss to Kansas City preventing them from being 5-0 in that stretch.  Hopefully Cousins isn't out too long.  Because things will be difficult without him.  I'm not sure less than a week is enough time to get to both know the offense and prepare for Atlanta.

Cardinals (1-7) at Browns (4-3): Cleveland-Don't look now, but the Cleveland Browns are a team that looks legitimately capable of making some noise (or, at the very least, keeping things interesting).  They've played all kinds of different games in the last three weeks, too.  They beat the 49ers, then won a one-point shootout in Indianapolis before going to Seattle and almost knocking off the Seahawks.  Now they're back home to face a Cardinals team that might be the worst in the NFL.

Rams (3-5) at Packers (2-5): Rams-After losing at home to Pittsburgh, the Rams got their butts kicked in Dallas last week.  Now they're back on the road for a trip to Lambeau.  Things aren't going much better for the Packers, who've lost four straight since a one-point win over New Orleans.  So, something's gotta give here.  I think the Rams are slightly less bad, which is why they're getting the nod here in what should be a close, low-scoring game.

Commanders (3-5) at Patriots (2-6): Washington-Beating the Bills might not have been the start of a Patriots turnaround after all.  Because they turned around and lost by two touchdowns in Miami to fall to 2-6 (with their only two wins coming in division games).  Washington, meanwhile, played the Eagles close for the second time last week.  They've lost to the Giants and Bears this season, but they've also proven that they can play with teams who are better than them.  So, I really have no idea what'll happen here, since the Patriots are more like the Giants and Bears.  I'm taking the Commanders anyway, though.

Bears (2-6) at Saints (4-4): New Orleans-Three years ago, this was a playoff game.  That's the one season in every five when the Bears are randomly not terrible.  Which is what they have been since then.  And passing on Bryce Young sure looks questionable, even if Tyler Bagent has provided a nice story.  The good news is they might get a do-over with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 Draft.  As for the Saints, they moved into a first-place tie with the Falcons by beating the Colts last week.

Seahawks (5-2) at Ravens (6-2): Baltimore-For all the talk about the Chiefs and the Eagles, Baltimore seems to be the forgotten 6-2 team.  We haven't heard much about the Ravens, but they're right up there among the best teams in the league.  So is Seattle, quite frankly, and the 49ers' losing streak has actually moved the Seahawks into first place.  They can make a statement of their own if they go into Baltimore and win, but it seems far more likely the Ravens will make it four straight.

Buccaneers (3-4) at Texans (3-4): Tampa Bay-One thing about the AFC South playing the NFC South this season is that it guaranteed a certain number of wins between them, thus making their records respectable.  It feels like we've gotten AFC South vs. NFC South a lot in the past few weeks, too, which explains how the Bucs-Texans winner will be .500 on the season at the midway point.  Tampa Bay actually has a very realistic chance of winning the division.  Those chances will only increase after the Bucs move to 4-4.

Colts (3-5) at Panthers (1-6): Indianapolis-Carolina got that first win last week, beating Houston.  Now they have a very realistic chance of making it two in a row as Head Coach Frank Reich takes on his former team.  The Colts have dropped three straight, two of which weren't particularly close.  Yet they're also looking at this one as a game where they can get back on track.  It'll probably be pretty ugly.  It'll probably be low scoring.  And, for some reason, I like the Colts.

Giants (2-6) at Raiders (3-5): Giants-The last time the Giants visited the Raiders, Ben McAdoo had just taken the last step towards getting himself fired by benching Eli Manning in favor of Geno Smith, ending Eli's streak of consecutive starts.  That was their last-ever meeting in Oakland.  For their first meeting in Las Vegas, it's the Raiders who've made some changes.  Their coach and GM are gone, with former Giant Antonio Pierce stepping in as the interim head coach.  The underlying reasons for all that turmoil still exist, though.  Which is why I'm taking the Giants.

Cowboys (5-2) at Eagles (7-1): Philadelphia-Since the Giants are also playing a late game on FOX, I don't get the national game this week.  Good thing I have Red Zone!  This is obviously the biggest game on each of their schedules so far, and it could provide a huge swing in the NFC East.  They'll either be separated by just a half-game with Dallas holding the tiebreaker or the Eagles will be up by two and a half and have the tiebreaker heading into their bye.  After their bye, they have a ridiculously tough stretch that includes the rematch with the Cowboys.  They'll need the buffer that this game will provide them.

Bills (5-3) at Bengals (4-3): Buffalo-We all know what happened the last time these two were supposed to meet in Cincinnati.  The fact that Damar Hamlin hasn't just recovered from that scary scene but is back playing football truly is remarkable!  You can bet that'll be one of the big stories heading into this game, and rightfully so, but let's not forget the game's importance.  Cincinnati has won three straight after starting 1-3, while the Bills are a game behind Miami in the AFC East.  Since they're both looking at wild cards right now, that makes holding the tiebreaker that much more important.  I probably should pick Cincinnati, but I'm going with Buffalo anyway.

Chargers (3-4) at Jets (4-3): Jets-Last week's Giants-Jets game was an absolute slog, but the Jets pulled it out in overtime to move above .500 on the season.  And that win actually has them very much in the AFC playoff picture.  The Chargers jumped back into it with their victory over the Bears on Sunday night (I know it was a week ago and I shouldn't still be hung up on this, but why was that a Sunday night game?).  Anyway, they need to prove they can win on the road if they really want to be considered playoff contenders.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 78-45