With Opening Day set for tomorrow, we've reached the end of my annual six-part baseball season preview. And it's also the hardest part. Because the NL West is perhaps the hardest division of them all to project. The Giants have won two of the last three World Series and haven't exactly gotten any worse. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have the highest payroll in baseball and boast a loaded team for owners that have a "World Series or Bust" mentality. It's going to be a very interesting race between the rivals.
I really have no idea how the race is going to play out. I think both of them will make the playoffs, but in which order is anybody's guess. Then again, I can also see either one end up finishing third, too. Remember, San Francisco missed the playoffs in the year between World Series wins. That scenario seems highly unlikely of being repeated this season, though. I've gotta say San Francisco is the slight favorite in the NL West. They've got everybody back and have the top starting rotation in baseball.
1. San Francisco Giants: What's not to like about this Giants team? The same lineup that started Game 4 of the World Series will start on Opening Day. In fact, the only major change they made was bringing back Andres Torres, the starting center fielder on the 2010 championship team, to serve as the backup for the man he was traded for--Angel Pagan. Throw in a reigning MVP, a slimmed-down Panda and a whole year of Hunter Pence and you've got the potential for the first repeat World Series champion from the National League since the Big Red Machine in 1975-76. Of course, their title defense two seasons ago was derailed by injuries, most notably Buster Posey's broken leg, but I think the Giants have actually positioned themselves pretty well to handle an injury or two during the season. And, even though runs will always be at a premium with this team, their lineup is deeper than it was in 2011. But the starting rotation is what sets the San Francisco Giants apart. Tim Lincecum is a two-time Cy Young winner and was reduced to a long relief role during the playoffs last season. The rotation's that deep. Matt Cain is clearly the ace, though. He threw the perfect game last year, and he's the guy who got the ball in Game 5 against the Reds and Game 7 against the Cardinals. I was among the many who criticized Bruce Bochy for selecting Ryan Vogelsong to the All-Star team two years ago, but I've come around about Vogelsong. He's a hell of a pitcher. Madison Bumgarner's a nice change of pace from the three righties, and Barry Zito, while the highest-paid No. 5 starter in the game, seems to have reestablished himself as something resembling a Major League starting pitcher. The bullpen has lost freak of nature Brian Wilson and his ridiculous beard, but that's not much of a loss, seeing as he didn't play most of last season. Sergio Romo was his replacement last year, and the job is his now. Frankly, Romo is better than Wilson anyway. The rest of the bullpen is also phenomenal, although I do wonder how long they're going to be able to get away with sending Jeremy Affeldt out there every single day.
Projected Record: 99-63
Projected Lineup: Angel Pagan-CF, Marco Scutaro-2B, Buster Posey-C, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Hunter Pence-RF, Brandon Belt-1B, Gregor Blanco-LF, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, Barry Zito
Closer: Sergio Romo
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Last season's big question regarding the Dodgers entering the season was how much of a mess the whole McCourt saga was going to make things. With the ownership situation settled, they made that blockbuster trade with the Red Sox in the middle of last season, making their "Win Now" approach incredibly apparent. Now they've got a full season of that high-priced roster to look forward to, and the sky could very well be the limit. They've got All-Stars everywhere, but I think the detail everybody conveniently forgets is that their two best players are homegrown products Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. If this lineup does nothing else, it'll provide protection for the two of them. And I think Adrian Gonzalez will go back to his Padre-like levels now that he's back in the comfort of Southern California. Hitting either in front of or behind Matt Kemp won't hurt, either. They'll just need to weather the DL stint that was the result of Hanley Ramirez breaking his thumb in the WBC final. The Dodgers' big offseason splash was on the mound, where they picked up the best free agent pitcher available in Zack Greinke. He's slotted into the No. 4 spot in that rotation, which shows you just how deep that Dodger rotation is. One former staff ace in the No. 4 spot and another former ace, Josh Beckett, in the No. 3 spot. The guy in the No. 1 spot is one of the best starters anybody can find--Clayton Kershaw. They have such an abundance of starting pitchers that Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang aren't even in the rotation to start the season. That gives them insurance in case of injury or tradable pieces should they need to make a move. Nobody's listed as the closer on the preseason depth chart, but I'd be shocked if it's anybody other than Brandon League. Finishing ahead of the Giants is a very realistic possibility. Even if they don't, the Dodgers have only one goal in mind. Winning their first World Series title in 25 years.
Projected Record: 95-67
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Carl Crawford-LF, Mark Ellis-2B, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Matt Kemp-CF, Andre Ethier-RF, Jerry Hairston-3B, A.J. Ellis-C, Luis Cruz-SS
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley
Closer: Brandon League
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: The NL West is a two-team race. Let's be very clear about that. But if any of the other three has any chance at breaking up a Giants-Dodgers 1-2 finish, it's probably the Diamondbacks. With that being said, though, thsi Arizona team will look much different than the one that took the field last season. They shed most of their big salaries in Chris Young and Justin Upton, who made up two-thirds of their starting outfield, as well as Stephen Drew, who was traded to the Red Sox for Cody Ross, Upton's replacement in right. The trade that sent Young to the A's also resulted in the installation of Cliff Pennington as starting shortstop. Other new faces include Jason Kubel, Martin Prado, Eric Chavez and Eric Hinske. Although, they have established one guy as a cornerstone, agreeing to a long-term deal with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. The pitching staff's not spectacular, but it isn't bad either. Ian Kennedy wouldn't be considered an "ace" on any other team. We'll have to see if Brandon McCarthy can revive his career after that devastating injury in Oakland last season. Wade Miley was their All-Star and a Rookie of the Year finalist last year, so they'll have to see if he can avoid the sophomore slump. Outside of closer J.J. Putz, the bullpen doesn't really offer much. The Diamondbacks' biggest problem is that they're an average team in a division that includes two very good clubs. For them to challenge for a division title, everything will need to go right and then some. Fighting for a wild card even seems like a stretch. I think they'll probably end up closer to .500.
Projected Record: 81-81
Projected Lineup: Gerardo Parra-CF, Aaron Hill-2B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Jason Kubel-LF, Cody Ross-RF, Miguel Montero-C, Martin Prado-3B, Cliff Pennington-SS
Projected Rotation: Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley, Patrick Corbin
Closer: J.J. Putz
4. Colorado Rockies: Every preview I've seen has the Rockies finishing last in the NL West. Most people expect them to be among the worst teams in baseball. But I just don't see it. The Rockies aren't as bad as San Diego. They have two bona fide stars in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but they've had problems keeping those two healthy over the past couple years. Todd Helton's a future Hall of Famer and you know what you're getting from him year in, year out. I also really like center fielder Dexter Fowler. I know he's been a disappointment so far in his Major League career (last year he even got demoted), but I'm still a Fowler fan. They also have former Twins All-Star Michael Cuddyer in right. The lineup's not deep and, frankly, neither is the pitching staff. Jhoulys Chacin is good, but he's not a No. 1 starter. That role should probably belong to Jeff Francis, who starts the season as the No. 3. They have another seasoned veteran in Jon Garland, as well. They're taking a big risk by plugging in Jorge de la Rosa at No. 2, though. He hasn't pitched since July 2011 and is coming off Tommy John surgery. The top pitcher on the roster might be closer Rafael Betancourt, who was the prize acquisition in the trade that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland a couple years ago. But even though I don't see the Rockies' situation as dire as some others do, I still think it's going to be a struggle for them to win 70 games. Especially in a top-heavy division like this one. They'll likely land somewhere in the 65-70 range.
Projected Record: 70-92
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF, Josh Rutledge-2B, Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Carlos Gonzalez-LF, Michael Cuddyer-RF, Todd Helton-1B, Wilin Rosario-C, Chris Nelson-3B
Projected Rotation: Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge de la Rosa, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, Juan Nicasio
Closer: Rafael Betancourt
5. San Diego Padres: The Padres have Chase Headley. That's about it. But I'm not sure he's the type of "franchise player" that's good enough to build around. Throw in the other slight little problem that he'll start the season on the DL with a broken thumb and you've got very little offense in San Diego. That's not too much of a problem in cavernous Petco Park, but their pitching isn't that great either. Other than Edinson Volquez, I'm not sure they have a single starter I'd want. The back end of the bullpen is really good, though. I wouldn't be surprised to see closer Huston Street and/or setup guy Luke Gregerson traded at some point during the season, which is the Padres' usual M.O., especially if they're out of it. And if Headley's out for an extended period, they could be out of it early. Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso can mash, and center fielder Cameron Maybin has a lot of upside, but none of these guys will be able to carry a Headley-less lineup. That's San Diego's biggest problem, which is why, all optimisim aside, I can't say they'll get many more than 65 wins this season. I might be wrong. The Padres are known for developing their own guys, and maybe rookie second baseman Jedd Gyorko will be a revelation. I don't see it happening, though.
Projected Record: 67-95
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Cameron Maybin-CF, Everth Cabrera-SS, Carlos Quentin-LF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Chris Denorfia-RF, Jedd Gyorko-2B, Nick Hundley-C, Cody Ransom-3B
Projected Rotation: Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Eric Stults, Jason Marquis, Tyson Ross
Closer: Huston Street
And with that, here are my picks for what's going to happen in October, based on my projected records for all 30 teams:
AL Wild Card: Yankees def. Rangers
ALDS: Tigers def. Yankees, Angels def. Blue Jays
ALCS: Tigers def. Angels
NL Wild Card: Dodgers def. Braves
NLDS: Nationals def. Dodgers, Reds def. Giants
NLCS: Nationals def. Reds
WORLD SERIES: Tigers def. Nationals
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Friday, March 29, 2013
Baseball 2013, Part V
It's safe to say that the win totals of the five teams in the NL Central are probably going to be a little lower this season. That's because they don't have the Astros to kick around anymore. The whole reason behind this season's realignment is because of the awkwardness that having six teams in this division created for so long. Well, that's no more. We've finally got an even number of teams in each division, and the teams in the NL Central finally get to play the same number of games against each of their division opponents. In the long run, that's going to be a very good thing.
In the short term, however, the five remaining NL Central teams aren't going to enjoy those extra opportunites to beat up on Houston. The Reds, Brewers and Cardinals still have the Pirates and Cubs, but whoever wins the most games within that group of three will likely take the division. Cincinnati is arguably the most talented team in the division, but St. Louis is always in the mix no matter what the expectations on them are. As we all know, the Cardinals were unlikely World Series winners two years ago, then they only got into the playoffs as the second wild card last year, yet beat the Nationals and had a 3-1 lead on the eventual champion Giants in the NLCS, despite losing Albert and Tony LaRussa. Basically what I'm saying is that you can never count the Cardinals out. And I haven't forgotten about the Brewers, who lost to St. Louis in the 2011 NLCS and have begun to put enough pieces together to make a run at it again. I don't think they will, but they're going to keep it close well into September.
1. Cincinnati Reds: It sure looked like the Reds were going to knock off San Francisco in the Division Series last season. Up 2-0 and heading home for three. But the Giants rallied to win three straight, which is something the Cardinals know all about, too. Anyway, Cincinnati has the most talented team in the NL Central, anchored by Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. They let Scott Rolen walk away so that they could give the everyday third base job to Todd Frazier, who was a finalist for the Rookie of the Year Award everyone knew was going to Bryce Harper. But their biggest move of the offseason was that big trade with Cleveland for Shin-Soo Choo. Now they don't have to bat Phillips leadoff anymore, and the outfield defense should be much improved with Choo in center and Jay Bruce moving to right. They had one of the best offenses in the National League last season. I think this year, they might be even better. The pitching staff ain't too shabby either. I'm glad they didn't continue with their misguided plan to move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation. He's lights-out as a closer. That 100-mph fastball is such a weapon in the ninth inning. Why give opposing hitters more opportunities to see it? He has the potential to be a dominant closer in Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman territory. I hope the Reds realize that and keep Chapman in the bullpen from here on out. Perhaps they thought they could get away with moving him to the rotation because they also have former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, who was tremendous as a setup man last year. The other reason they didn't need to move Chapman to the rotation is because that rotation is very solid. The only small issue with it is that all five starters are right-handed, but that's very minor. All five of them won double-digit games last year, and they actually all made a postseason start. They've also been incredibly durable. The quintet started 161 of Cincinnati's 162 games last season. The Reds are good. Very good. They're not just the best team in the NL Central. They could contend for their first World Series title in 23 years.
Projected Record: 96-66
Projected Lineup: Shin-Soo Choo-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Ryan Ludwick-LF, Todd Frazier-3B, Zack Cozart-SS, Ryan Hanigan-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
2. St. Louis Cardinals: I've finally learned that the St. Louis Cardinals are always going to be in the conversation no matter what. Although, I'm sure the rest of the National League is hoping St. Louis doesn't find some way to make the playoffs yet again. Because this team is seemingly unbeatable in October. As for April-September, I'm not sure it'll be quite as automatic. Losing Chris Carpenter for the season yet again shortens the rotation, and I don't really feel confident in those starters other than Adam Wainwright and the underrated Jaime Garcia. If Lance Lynn has the same type of season he had last year, St. Louis will probably work its way to October again. If not, they may come up a game or two short. The bullpen is very good, and we've seen it on full display during each of the last two postseasons. Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte are both listed as the closer on the Cardinals' depth chart, although I'm not quite sure why. Motte's the guy. The left side of the infield will look a little different on Opening Day, with David Freese and Rafael Furcal both starting the season on the DL. The only other major change from last season is that Lance Berkman is now a member of the Rangers, finally opening up an everyday place for Allen Craig at first base. Carlos Beltran and Yadier Molina had that experience of playing in the WBC final with Puerto Rico, so we'll see if that was the linchpin towards a big season. With Albert gone, Molina is this team's best player and undisputed leader. As he goes, so go the Cardinals. I just think that top-to-bottom the lineup isn't as good as it's been in the past, though. And they definitely aren't better than Cincinnati on paper. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if somebody completely random shows up and the Cardinals find a way. They always do.
Projected Record: 89-73
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Jon Jay-CF, Carlos Beltran-RF, Matt Holliday-LF, Allen Craig-1B, Yadier Molina-C, Matt Carpenter-3B, Pete Kozma-SS, Daniel Descalso-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller
Closer: Jason Motte
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Despite losing Prince Fielder, the Brewers didn't have as much of a dropoff as we all expected last season. One of the primary reasons why is Ryan Braun, who proved that his 2011 MVP numbers weren't completely a product of steroids, putting up even better numbers last year when he was presumably clean and didn't have the big guy as protection in the lineup. I've never quite been able to embrace Ryan Braun, but after last season I can finally appreciate he's a singular talent. The talent around him is good if not great. Milwaukee's second-best position player is probably second baseman Rickie Weeks, while third baseman Aramis Ramirez has never lived up to the hype. Jonathan Lucroy is solid behind the plate and I like Corey Hart, who'll start the season on the DL. The pitching staff is what concerns me about this team, though. After Yovani Gallardo, the rotation is incredibly soft. That pickup of Kyle Lohse last week will help significantly. He's an established Major League starter who they can immediately plug into that No. 2 spot behind Gallardo. I actually think Kyle Lohse is going to have a solid year for the Brewers. Outside of John Axford, the bullpen isn't that good, although the addition of Tom Gorzellany should help. I see the Brewers as a sleeper team this season. Milwaukee's that annoying team that simply won't go away. They probably don't have enough to make a playoff push, but they're going to be that team nobody wants to face, either. And they aren't that far behind the top two teams in this division, so a run wouldn't come as a complete surprise. Not sure the pitching's there, though.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Norichika Aoki-RF, Rickie Weeks-2B, Ryan Braun-LF, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Alex Gonzalez-1B, Carlos Gomez-CF, Jean Segura-SS
Projected Rotation: Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta, Chris Narveson
Closer: John Axford
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates' pursuit of a .500 season continues. It's become their Great White Whale. So close, yet so far. It looked like they might finally get there last season, until that August swoon dropped them to 79-83. Still, they've won 70 in each of the last two seasons, so it's not out of the question to think 80 (or 81?) is attainable. They even made noise in free agency, coming out of nowhere to pluck Russell Martin away from the Yankees. He should definitely help that pitching staff, which doesn't include a bunch of no-name young guys for once. The ace of that rotation is another former Yankee, A.J. Burnett, who got away from the pressure-cooker of New York and, as I expected, had a very solid season with 14 wins last year. The rotation isn't great, but it isn't as awful as it's been either. My only question about closer Jason Grilli goes back to the WBC. If you're Italy and you're at risk of blowing the lead in the eighth inning of an elimination game, why don't you bring your closer in? Anyway, I digress. Back to the Pirates...Pittsburgh boasts one of the most talented players in the game in Andrew McCutchen. He's finally not a one-man team. They're kind of like the Royals in that all of those high draft picks they've had in recent years are now all reaching the Majors at the same time. I really like Neil Walker and Garrett Jones, and Pedro Alvarez is primed for a breakout. This lineup actually isn't that bad. Will it be enough to finally cross that .500 threshold? Who's to say? But what I do know is that the Pirates' days as the National League laughingstock are over. Yes, they haven't been good since Barry Bonds was there, and they have to get that .500 monkey off their backs, but they're a lot closer to being competitive than they used to be. They aren't even the worst team in the NL Central anymore.
Projected Record: 79-83
Projected Lineup: Sterling Marte-LF, Neil Walker-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Garrett Jones-1B, Pedro Alvarez-3B, Russell Martin-C, Travis Snider-RF, Clint Barmes-SS
Projected Rotation: A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Wandy Rodriguez, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Karstens
Closer: Jason Grilli
5. Chicago Cubs: 105 years and counting. Yes, I'm already including this season. Because the Cubs don't have a prayer of even coming anywhere near .500. Jeff Samardzija is the Opening Day starter. That's about all I need to say about the lovable losers from the North Side. They'll do their usual thing of selling a lot of tickets and people having a grand old time at their beautiful ballpark, which turns 100 next year, but they've been in a downward trend since their 97-win season in 2008. And it ain't coming to an end this year. Starlin Castro is a bonafide star, but nobody else on the team is. Anthony Rizzo has the potential to get there and so does Darwin Barney, but the rest of the team is nothing to write home about. They can finally get rid of the albatross that is Alfonso Soriano's contract soon, though, which should give Theo the flexibility to get these guys some help. Edwin Jackson continues his quest to play for as many teams as Octavio Dotel. This year he can mark the Cubs off the list, his seventh different team in six seasons. He's a quality Major League starter, but does it bother anybody else that he can't stay in the same place for very long? Their big free agent pitching prize was the Twins' Scott Baker, who has an injured shoulder and will probably start the season on the DL. And I have no idea what Matt Garza's deal is. I know they were trying to trade him (unsuccessfully), and he's not even in their projected rotation. Problem is, he's their best starting pitcher. It's like when they had Carlos Zambrano. Even if you don't want him, if he's the best you've got, you've gotta play him if you can't get rid of him. Carlos Marmol is a quality closer, but on a team like the Cubs that doesn't really matter. They lost 101 games last season. I don't think they'll be that bad again, but 70 wins might be a little too optimistic. But hey, you know their fans are going to have so much fun at Wrigley that they might not even notice.
Projected Record: 68-94
Projected Lineup: David DeJesus-CF, Darwin Barney-2B, Starlin Castro-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Alfonso Soriano-LF, Nate Schierholtz-RF, Luis Valbuena-3B, Wellington Castillo-C
Projected Rotation: Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Carlos Villanueva
Closer: Carlos Marmol
In the short term, however, the five remaining NL Central teams aren't going to enjoy those extra opportunites to beat up on Houston. The Reds, Brewers and Cardinals still have the Pirates and Cubs, but whoever wins the most games within that group of three will likely take the division. Cincinnati is arguably the most talented team in the division, but St. Louis is always in the mix no matter what the expectations on them are. As we all know, the Cardinals were unlikely World Series winners two years ago, then they only got into the playoffs as the second wild card last year, yet beat the Nationals and had a 3-1 lead on the eventual champion Giants in the NLCS, despite losing Albert and Tony LaRussa. Basically what I'm saying is that you can never count the Cardinals out. And I haven't forgotten about the Brewers, who lost to St. Louis in the 2011 NLCS and have begun to put enough pieces together to make a run at it again. I don't think they will, but they're going to keep it close well into September.
1. Cincinnati Reds: It sure looked like the Reds were going to knock off San Francisco in the Division Series last season. Up 2-0 and heading home for three. But the Giants rallied to win three straight, which is something the Cardinals know all about, too. Anyway, Cincinnati has the most talented team in the NL Central, anchored by Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. They let Scott Rolen walk away so that they could give the everyday third base job to Todd Frazier, who was a finalist for the Rookie of the Year Award everyone knew was going to Bryce Harper. But their biggest move of the offseason was that big trade with Cleveland for Shin-Soo Choo. Now they don't have to bat Phillips leadoff anymore, and the outfield defense should be much improved with Choo in center and Jay Bruce moving to right. They had one of the best offenses in the National League last season. I think this year, they might be even better. The pitching staff ain't too shabby either. I'm glad they didn't continue with their misguided plan to move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation. He's lights-out as a closer. That 100-mph fastball is such a weapon in the ninth inning. Why give opposing hitters more opportunities to see it? He has the potential to be a dominant closer in Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman territory. I hope the Reds realize that and keep Chapman in the bullpen from here on out. Perhaps they thought they could get away with moving him to the rotation because they also have former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, who was tremendous as a setup man last year. The other reason they didn't need to move Chapman to the rotation is because that rotation is very solid. The only small issue with it is that all five starters are right-handed, but that's very minor. All five of them won double-digit games last year, and they actually all made a postseason start. They've also been incredibly durable. The quintet started 161 of Cincinnati's 162 games last season. The Reds are good. Very good. They're not just the best team in the NL Central. They could contend for their first World Series title in 23 years.
Projected Record: 96-66
Projected Lineup: Shin-Soo Choo-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Ryan Ludwick-LF, Todd Frazier-3B, Zack Cozart-SS, Ryan Hanigan-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
2. St. Louis Cardinals: I've finally learned that the St. Louis Cardinals are always going to be in the conversation no matter what. Although, I'm sure the rest of the National League is hoping St. Louis doesn't find some way to make the playoffs yet again. Because this team is seemingly unbeatable in October. As for April-September, I'm not sure it'll be quite as automatic. Losing Chris Carpenter for the season yet again shortens the rotation, and I don't really feel confident in those starters other than Adam Wainwright and the underrated Jaime Garcia. If Lance Lynn has the same type of season he had last year, St. Louis will probably work its way to October again. If not, they may come up a game or two short. The bullpen is very good, and we've seen it on full display during each of the last two postseasons. Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte are both listed as the closer on the Cardinals' depth chart, although I'm not quite sure why. Motte's the guy. The left side of the infield will look a little different on Opening Day, with David Freese and Rafael Furcal both starting the season on the DL. The only other major change from last season is that Lance Berkman is now a member of the Rangers, finally opening up an everyday place for Allen Craig at first base. Carlos Beltran and Yadier Molina had that experience of playing in the WBC final with Puerto Rico, so we'll see if that was the linchpin towards a big season. With Albert gone, Molina is this team's best player and undisputed leader. As he goes, so go the Cardinals. I just think that top-to-bottom the lineup isn't as good as it's been in the past, though. And they definitely aren't better than Cincinnati on paper. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if somebody completely random shows up and the Cardinals find a way. They always do.
Projected Record: 89-73
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Jon Jay-CF, Carlos Beltran-RF, Matt Holliday-LF, Allen Craig-1B, Yadier Molina-C, Matt Carpenter-3B, Pete Kozma-SS, Daniel Descalso-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller
Closer: Jason Motte
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Despite losing Prince Fielder, the Brewers didn't have as much of a dropoff as we all expected last season. One of the primary reasons why is Ryan Braun, who proved that his 2011 MVP numbers weren't completely a product of steroids, putting up even better numbers last year when he was presumably clean and didn't have the big guy as protection in the lineup. I've never quite been able to embrace Ryan Braun, but after last season I can finally appreciate he's a singular talent. The talent around him is good if not great. Milwaukee's second-best position player is probably second baseman Rickie Weeks, while third baseman Aramis Ramirez has never lived up to the hype. Jonathan Lucroy is solid behind the plate and I like Corey Hart, who'll start the season on the DL. The pitching staff is what concerns me about this team, though. After Yovani Gallardo, the rotation is incredibly soft. That pickup of Kyle Lohse last week will help significantly. He's an established Major League starter who they can immediately plug into that No. 2 spot behind Gallardo. I actually think Kyle Lohse is going to have a solid year for the Brewers. Outside of John Axford, the bullpen isn't that good, although the addition of Tom Gorzellany should help. I see the Brewers as a sleeper team this season. Milwaukee's that annoying team that simply won't go away. They probably don't have enough to make a playoff push, but they're going to be that team nobody wants to face, either. And they aren't that far behind the top two teams in this division, so a run wouldn't come as a complete surprise. Not sure the pitching's there, though.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Norichika Aoki-RF, Rickie Weeks-2B, Ryan Braun-LF, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Alex Gonzalez-1B, Carlos Gomez-CF, Jean Segura-SS
Projected Rotation: Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta, Chris Narveson
Closer: John Axford
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates' pursuit of a .500 season continues. It's become their Great White Whale. So close, yet so far. It looked like they might finally get there last season, until that August swoon dropped them to 79-83. Still, they've won 70 in each of the last two seasons, so it's not out of the question to think 80 (or 81?) is attainable. They even made noise in free agency, coming out of nowhere to pluck Russell Martin away from the Yankees. He should definitely help that pitching staff, which doesn't include a bunch of no-name young guys for once. The ace of that rotation is another former Yankee, A.J. Burnett, who got away from the pressure-cooker of New York and, as I expected, had a very solid season with 14 wins last year. The rotation isn't great, but it isn't as awful as it's been either. My only question about closer Jason Grilli goes back to the WBC. If you're Italy and you're at risk of blowing the lead in the eighth inning of an elimination game, why don't you bring your closer in? Anyway, I digress. Back to the Pirates...Pittsburgh boasts one of the most talented players in the game in Andrew McCutchen. He's finally not a one-man team. They're kind of like the Royals in that all of those high draft picks they've had in recent years are now all reaching the Majors at the same time. I really like Neil Walker and Garrett Jones, and Pedro Alvarez is primed for a breakout. This lineup actually isn't that bad. Will it be enough to finally cross that .500 threshold? Who's to say? But what I do know is that the Pirates' days as the National League laughingstock are over. Yes, they haven't been good since Barry Bonds was there, and they have to get that .500 monkey off their backs, but they're a lot closer to being competitive than they used to be. They aren't even the worst team in the NL Central anymore.
Projected Record: 79-83
Projected Lineup: Sterling Marte-LF, Neil Walker-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Garrett Jones-1B, Pedro Alvarez-3B, Russell Martin-C, Travis Snider-RF, Clint Barmes-SS
Projected Rotation: A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Wandy Rodriguez, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Karstens
Closer: Jason Grilli
5. Chicago Cubs: 105 years and counting. Yes, I'm already including this season. Because the Cubs don't have a prayer of even coming anywhere near .500. Jeff Samardzija is the Opening Day starter. That's about all I need to say about the lovable losers from the North Side. They'll do their usual thing of selling a lot of tickets and people having a grand old time at their beautiful ballpark, which turns 100 next year, but they've been in a downward trend since their 97-win season in 2008. And it ain't coming to an end this year. Starlin Castro is a bonafide star, but nobody else on the team is. Anthony Rizzo has the potential to get there and so does Darwin Barney, but the rest of the team is nothing to write home about. They can finally get rid of the albatross that is Alfonso Soriano's contract soon, though, which should give Theo the flexibility to get these guys some help. Edwin Jackson continues his quest to play for as many teams as Octavio Dotel. This year he can mark the Cubs off the list, his seventh different team in six seasons. He's a quality Major League starter, but does it bother anybody else that he can't stay in the same place for very long? Their big free agent pitching prize was the Twins' Scott Baker, who has an injured shoulder and will probably start the season on the DL. And I have no idea what Matt Garza's deal is. I know they were trying to trade him (unsuccessfully), and he's not even in their projected rotation. Problem is, he's their best starting pitcher. It's like when they had Carlos Zambrano. Even if you don't want him, if he's the best you've got, you've gotta play him if you can't get rid of him. Carlos Marmol is a quality closer, but on a team like the Cubs that doesn't really matter. They lost 101 games last season. I don't think they'll be that bad again, but 70 wins might be a little too optimistic. But hey, you know their fans are going to have so much fun at Wrigley that they might not even notice.
Projected Record: 68-94
Projected Lineup: David DeJesus-CF, Darwin Barney-2B, Starlin Castro-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Alfonso Soriano-LF, Nate Schierholtz-RF, Luis Valbuena-3B, Wellington Castillo-C
Projected Rotation: Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Carlos Villanueva
Closer: Carlos Marmol
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Baseball 2013, Part IV
I'm done with the American League, so now it's time to move on to the NL. The league that has won the last three All-Star Games and four of the last five World Series. I don't see that changing this year. Because potentially the three best teams in baseball play in the National League.
One of those teams plays in the NL East. The Nationals' controversial decision to shut a perfectly healthy Stephen Strasburg down in September in the middle of a pennant race last season might've cost them a trip to the World Series. I think it did. This year, Strasburg has no such limitations, and, as a result, the Nationals are a World Series favorite in a lot of people's eyes. I've even seen comparisons made to the '86 Mets. That's a lofty standard. I'm not sure the Nationals are that good (the '86 Mets won 108 games and are one of the most dominant teams over a single-season there's ever been), but they are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the NL East. Even Atlanta, which made the playoffs last season and is still a very, very good team. The Braves' playoff chances might once again rest on the wild card game, though. Because this is Washington's division to lose.
1. Washington Nationals: Where do I start about how good the Washington Nationals are? Their biggest problems last season were that Bryce Harper was playing center field and Jayson Werth was leading off. They didn't want either of those things. So they traded for Denard Span, solving both problems. Now they can put Harper in left where they want him and they have an actual leadoff hitter, which means Werth can go back to the middle of the lineup where he belongs. Michael Morse was a casualty of the Span trade, but he's not a left fielder, and with Adam LaRoche playing first base every day they wouldn't have had a place to put him. He would've been a nice guy to have as a pinch hitter, though, because the bench isn't particularly deep. However, the starting lineup is so good that it might not even make a difference. As for the pitching... I think one of the reasons they were comfortable shutting Strasburg down last season was because of their pitching depth. Gio Gonzalez had Cy Young-caliber season in 2012, and he's their No. 2! starter. Then there's Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. If that rotation wasn't already strong enough Washington has also added former Angel Dan Haren as their fifth starter. And just to further hammer home the point that they're by far the class of this division, the Nationals improved their bullpen, too. Rafael Soriano was the best free agent closer available. Adding him to that bullpen might be that last piece that was missing. The Nationals finished with the best record in baseball last season, but lost to the Cardinals in the Division Series. It might be a little early for comparisons to the '86 Mets, but it's not a stretch to say that they might end their season the same way the '86 Mets did. This is a very, very good team in the Nation's Capital. Last season, they brought October baseball to Washington for the first time since 1933. Can a first World Series title since 1924 be too far away?
Projected Record: 102-60
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Ian Desmond-SS, Bryce Harper-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Adam LaRoche-1B, Jayson Werth-RF, Danny Espinosa-2B, Kurt Suzuki-C
Projected Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren, Ross Detwiler
Closer: Rafael Soriano
2. Atlanta Braves: There are very few flaws with this Atlanta Braves team. The problem is they're not as good as the Nationals. Which isn't an insult. This is the first time in 20 years that Chipper Jones won't be manning the hot corner in Atlanta, and his absence leaves a hole at third base that the Braves need to fill. The rest of the roster is incredibly solid, though. They were willing to let Michael Bourn walk because they Andrelton Simmons waiting in the wings to be the leadoff hitter and they knew they could get a cheaper center fielder, which they found in B.J. Upton. As a bonus, B.J.'s brother Justin came aboard to play left, giving Atlanta an outfield that's two-thirds Upton and one-third Jason Heyward. Heyward still hasn't quite followed-up his spectacular rookie season, but he's still an above-average Major League right fielder. And he has so much up-side you can't not play him. Brian McCann is injured and out until probably May, but they've brought in Gerald Laird, who's an adequate replacement. The Braves have a loaded lineup. As for the pitching, it's not quite the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz days. Beyond Tim Hudosn and Kris Medlen, the rotation isn't that great, which is why I think Washington has a slight edge in the division. The Braves, however, have arguably the best rotation in baseball. It's much more than Mr. Strikeout-Half-the-Guys-I-Faced closer Craig Kimbrel. Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty are two of the best setup guys you can find. If anybody's going to challenge Washington for the NL East title, Atlanta's your team. I think it's more likely the Braves end up in the wild card game again, though.
Projected Record: 93-69
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Andrelton Simmons-SS, Justin Upton-LF, Dan Uggla-2B, Jason Heyward-RF, B.J. Upton-CF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Gerald Laird-C, Juan Francisco-3B
Projected Rotation: Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Paul Maholm, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
3. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies haven't exactly regressed since the days when they dominated the division. It's just that the Nationals and Braves have gotten much better. Well, that and the fact that the Phillies had a happen to them what the Yankees are currently experiencing. All of their position players got old quickly and at the same time. With all that being said, the Phillies aren't as deep as they've been in the past. Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco are all gone, although the addition of Michael Young was a very good one. A veteran presence who can play any position and, more importantly, needed a fresh start, I think Young could have a big year. I also think new center fielder Ben Revere is capable of big things. He's one of two former Twins center fielders now playing in the NL East, joining the Nationals' Denard Span. Regardless, the lineup's not what it used to be. On the mound, they've still got the Big Three of Hamels, Halladay and Lee. Kyle Kendrick and newly-acquired John Lannan complete a very competent starting rotation. And as long as they have Jonathan Papelbon, they'll be OK at the end of games. With the talent on the roster, it's not much of a stretch to say the Phillies are capable of contending for the NL East title this season. However, being in the mix for the wild cards seems a little more realistic. Even that seems like it'll probably fall a little short, though.
Projected Record: 88-74
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS, Ben Revere-CF, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Michael Young-3B, Domonic Brown-RF, John Mayberry-LF, Humberto Quintero-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
4. New York Mets: Once again the Mets seem content to be their usual middle-of-the road selves. A nice dysfunctional distraction from the Yankees every once in a while, but otherwise pretty much left alone to go about their business. The two biggest pieces of news regarding the Mets this season are that 1) Citi Field is hosting the All-Star Game and 2) they gave David Wright the contract and captain designation he deserves. If the David Wright that played for Team USA shows up for the Mets this season, that investment will prove to even wiser. Problem is, beyond their franchise player, there's not much to write home about with this Mets roster. They got catcher John Buck in the R.A. Dickey trade and former Cubs All-Star Marlon Byrd is the projected starting right fielder, but they both seem to be reclamation projects. But Lucas Duda in left field? Really? I like Lucas Duda, but he's a DH (which is a problem when you're on a National League team). R.A. Dickey became the first knuckleballer to win the Cy Young last season, but the Mets traded him to the Blue Jays. I think that was an uncharacteristic really smart move by the Mets. Dickey's going to come back down to Earth very soon, so why not sell high when you have the chance? And they got Shaun Marcum for him, who has the potential to be very successful in the National League. As for Johan Santana, it looks like he and the Mets are still paying for the franchise's first-ever no-hitter. It basically knocked him out for the entire remainder of last season, and he's staying in Florida when the team breaks camp. That leaves Jonathon Niese as the Opening Day starter, although everyone would agree that he's better served as a No. 2 or probably a No. 3. Serious upgrade at closer with Frank Francisco.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup: Colin Cowgill-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Ike Davis-1B, Marlon Byrd-RF, Lucas Duda-LF, John Buck-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Projected Rotation: Jonathon Niese, Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum, Dillon Gee, Matt Harvey
Closer: Frank Francisco
5. Miami Marlins: Remember last year when the Marlins made this big splash in free agency and everyone thought they were going to be so good? Yeah, well scratch that plan. This year, after that historic, embarrassing trade with the Blue Jays, nobody's expecting anything from the Marlins. Not losing 100 games would probably be considered an achievement for a team that went from so many big names to Giancarlo Stanton and a bunch of people you've never heard of. The Marlins aren't in as bad shape as some other bad teams, though (Houston). They have a legitimate superstar in Stanton and enough talent around him to at least resemble a Major League ballclub. Guys like Juan Pierre and Casey Kotchman and Placido Polanco. I'm not saying they're going to contend with these guys when they didn't with the likes of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez on the roster, but they're not going to as incredibly bad as we were all thinking immediately after they traded the entire team to Toronto. Keep in mind though, this team knows it isn't going to be good and isn't trying to be. The rotation is one place where Miami needs a lot of work. Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, their top two starters, were part of the purge, leaving Ricky Nolasco as the nominal "ace." With the exception of Kevin Slowey, I've never heard of any of their other starting pitchers. If not for the World Baseball Classic, I'd never heard of closer Steve Cishek either. Jeff Loria got the City of Miami to build him that beautiful new ballpark with the promise that he'd put a winner on field...and gave them this. It's not fair to those fans, provided there are actually any left. Maybe he played us all for fools and this is part of some masterful long-term plan. In the short term, though, I just feel really bad for Giancarlo Stanton, who's probably wondering how he can get out of there.
Projected Record: 67-95
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre-LF, Placido Polanco-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Casey Kotchman-1B, Justin Ruggiano-CF, Donovan Solano-2B, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, Rob Brantly-C
Projected Rotation: Ricky Nolasco, Nathan Eovaldi, Wade LeBlanc, Henderson Alvarez, Kevin Slowey
Closer: Steve Cishek
One of those teams plays in the NL East. The Nationals' controversial decision to shut a perfectly healthy Stephen Strasburg down in September in the middle of a pennant race last season might've cost them a trip to the World Series. I think it did. This year, Strasburg has no such limitations, and, as a result, the Nationals are a World Series favorite in a lot of people's eyes. I've even seen comparisons made to the '86 Mets. That's a lofty standard. I'm not sure the Nationals are that good (the '86 Mets won 108 games and are one of the most dominant teams over a single-season there's ever been), but they are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the NL East. Even Atlanta, which made the playoffs last season and is still a very, very good team. The Braves' playoff chances might once again rest on the wild card game, though. Because this is Washington's division to lose.
1. Washington Nationals: Where do I start about how good the Washington Nationals are? Their biggest problems last season were that Bryce Harper was playing center field and Jayson Werth was leading off. They didn't want either of those things. So they traded for Denard Span, solving both problems. Now they can put Harper in left where they want him and they have an actual leadoff hitter, which means Werth can go back to the middle of the lineup where he belongs. Michael Morse was a casualty of the Span trade, but he's not a left fielder, and with Adam LaRoche playing first base every day they wouldn't have had a place to put him. He would've been a nice guy to have as a pinch hitter, though, because the bench isn't particularly deep. However, the starting lineup is so good that it might not even make a difference. As for the pitching... I think one of the reasons they were comfortable shutting Strasburg down last season was because of their pitching depth. Gio Gonzalez had Cy Young-caliber season in 2012, and he's their No. 2! starter. Then there's Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. If that rotation wasn't already strong enough Washington has also added former Angel Dan Haren as their fifth starter. And just to further hammer home the point that they're by far the class of this division, the Nationals improved their bullpen, too. Rafael Soriano was the best free agent closer available. Adding him to that bullpen might be that last piece that was missing. The Nationals finished with the best record in baseball last season, but lost to the Cardinals in the Division Series. It might be a little early for comparisons to the '86 Mets, but it's not a stretch to say that they might end their season the same way the '86 Mets did. This is a very, very good team in the Nation's Capital. Last season, they brought October baseball to Washington for the first time since 1933. Can a first World Series title since 1924 be too far away?
Projected Record: 102-60
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Ian Desmond-SS, Bryce Harper-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Adam LaRoche-1B, Jayson Werth-RF, Danny Espinosa-2B, Kurt Suzuki-C
Projected Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren, Ross Detwiler
Closer: Rafael Soriano
2. Atlanta Braves: There are very few flaws with this Atlanta Braves team. The problem is they're not as good as the Nationals. Which isn't an insult. This is the first time in 20 years that Chipper Jones won't be manning the hot corner in Atlanta, and his absence leaves a hole at third base that the Braves need to fill. The rest of the roster is incredibly solid, though. They were willing to let Michael Bourn walk because they Andrelton Simmons waiting in the wings to be the leadoff hitter and they knew they could get a cheaper center fielder, which they found in B.J. Upton. As a bonus, B.J.'s brother Justin came aboard to play left, giving Atlanta an outfield that's two-thirds Upton and one-third Jason Heyward. Heyward still hasn't quite followed-up his spectacular rookie season, but he's still an above-average Major League right fielder. And he has so much up-side you can't not play him. Brian McCann is injured and out until probably May, but they've brought in Gerald Laird, who's an adequate replacement. The Braves have a loaded lineup. As for the pitching, it's not quite the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz days. Beyond Tim Hudosn and Kris Medlen, the rotation isn't that great, which is why I think Washington has a slight edge in the division. The Braves, however, have arguably the best rotation in baseball. It's much more than Mr. Strikeout-Half-the-Guys-I-Faced closer Craig Kimbrel. Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty are two of the best setup guys you can find. If anybody's going to challenge Washington for the NL East title, Atlanta's your team. I think it's more likely the Braves end up in the wild card game again, though.
Projected Record: 93-69
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Andrelton Simmons-SS, Justin Upton-LF, Dan Uggla-2B, Jason Heyward-RF, B.J. Upton-CF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Gerald Laird-C, Juan Francisco-3B
Projected Rotation: Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Paul Maholm, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
3. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies haven't exactly regressed since the days when they dominated the division. It's just that the Nationals and Braves have gotten much better. Well, that and the fact that the Phillies had a happen to them what the Yankees are currently experiencing. All of their position players got old quickly and at the same time. With all that being said, the Phillies aren't as deep as they've been in the past. Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco are all gone, although the addition of Michael Young was a very good one. A veteran presence who can play any position and, more importantly, needed a fresh start, I think Young could have a big year. I also think new center fielder Ben Revere is capable of big things. He's one of two former Twins center fielders now playing in the NL East, joining the Nationals' Denard Span. Regardless, the lineup's not what it used to be. On the mound, they've still got the Big Three of Hamels, Halladay and Lee. Kyle Kendrick and newly-acquired John Lannan complete a very competent starting rotation. And as long as they have Jonathan Papelbon, they'll be OK at the end of games. With the talent on the roster, it's not much of a stretch to say the Phillies are capable of contending for the NL East title this season. However, being in the mix for the wild cards seems a little more realistic. Even that seems like it'll probably fall a little short, though.
Projected Record: 88-74
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS, Ben Revere-CF, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Michael Young-3B, Domonic Brown-RF, John Mayberry-LF, Humberto Quintero-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
4. New York Mets: Once again the Mets seem content to be their usual middle-of-the road selves. A nice dysfunctional distraction from the Yankees every once in a while, but otherwise pretty much left alone to go about their business. The two biggest pieces of news regarding the Mets this season are that 1) Citi Field is hosting the All-Star Game and 2) they gave David Wright the contract and captain designation he deserves. If the David Wright that played for Team USA shows up for the Mets this season, that investment will prove to even wiser. Problem is, beyond their franchise player, there's not much to write home about with this Mets roster. They got catcher John Buck in the R.A. Dickey trade and former Cubs All-Star Marlon Byrd is the projected starting right fielder, but they both seem to be reclamation projects. But Lucas Duda in left field? Really? I like Lucas Duda, but he's a DH (which is a problem when you're on a National League team). R.A. Dickey became the first knuckleballer to win the Cy Young last season, but the Mets traded him to the Blue Jays. I think that was an uncharacteristic really smart move by the Mets. Dickey's going to come back down to Earth very soon, so why not sell high when you have the chance? And they got Shaun Marcum for him, who has the potential to be very successful in the National League. As for Johan Santana, it looks like he and the Mets are still paying for the franchise's first-ever no-hitter. It basically knocked him out for the entire remainder of last season, and he's staying in Florida when the team breaks camp. That leaves Jonathon Niese as the Opening Day starter, although everyone would agree that he's better served as a No. 2 or probably a No. 3. Serious upgrade at closer with Frank Francisco.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup: Colin Cowgill-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Ike Davis-1B, Marlon Byrd-RF, Lucas Duda-LF, John Buck-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Projected Rotation: Jonathon Niese, Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum, Dillon Gee, Matt Harvey
Closer: Frank Francisco
5. Miami Marlins: Remember last year when the Marlins made this big splash in free agency and everyone thought they were going to be so good? Yeah, well scratch that plan. This year, after that historic, embarrassing trade with the Blue Jays, nobody's expecting anything from the Marlins. Not losing 100 games would probably be considered an achievement for a team that went from so many big names to Giancarlo Stanton and a bunch of people you've never heard of. The Marlins aren't in as bad shape as some other bad teams, though (Houston). They have a legitimate superstar in Stanton and enough talent around him to at least resemble a Major League ballclub. Guys like Juan Pierre and Casey Kotchman and Placido Polanco. I'm not saying they're going to contend with these guys when they didn't with the likes of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez on the roster, but they're not going to as incredibly bad as we were all thinking immediately after they traded the entire team to Toronto. Keep in mind though, this team knows it isn't going to be good and isn't trying to be. The rotation is one place where Miami needs a lot of work. Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, their top two starters, were part of the purge, leaving Ricky Nolasco as the nominal "ace." With the exception of Kevin Slowey, I've never heard of any of their other starting pitchers. If not for the World Baseball Classic, I'd never heard of closer Steve Cishek either. Jeff Loria got the City of Miami to build him that beautiful new ballpark with the promise that he'd put a winner on field...and gave them this. It's not fair to those fans, provided there are actually any left. Maybe he played us all for fools and this is part of some masterful long-term plan. In the short term, though, I just feel really bad for Giancarlo Stanton, who's probably wondering how he can get out of there.
Projected Record: 67-95
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre-LF, Placido Polanco-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Casey Kotchman-1B, Justin Ruggiano-CF, Donovan Solano-2B, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, Rob Brantly-C
Projected Rotation: Ricky Nolasco, Nathan Eovaldi, Wade LeBlanc, Henderson Alvarez, Kevin Slowey
Closer: Steve Cishek
Monday, March 25, 2013
Baseball 2013, Part III
Without question, the division that's going to see the greatest amount of change this season is the AL West. After 20 years as a four-team division, the AL West now has five teams just like everybody else, thanks to the Astros moving over from the NL Central. And those five teams include two haves (Angels, Rangers), two have-nots (Mariners, Astros), and an Oakland team that surprised everyone by winning the division last season. Can the A's repeat, especially with those two behemoths looking to rebound after disappointing 2012 campaigns?
I think the AL West is going to be very competitive this season. The Angels are the most talented team in the division, but that was true last year too and they finished third. The Rangers have lost a lot, so they're not as good as they've been, and who knows if the A's were a one-year wonder or that was the beginning of something? All three will also benefit from the 38 games they'll play against the Mariners and Astros, although vastly-improved Seattle is much more than just Felix Hernandez now.
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: The Angels already boasted one of the deepest rosters in baseball when they added Josh Hamilton. If you're keeping score, that's two consecutive winters in which the Angels got the best free agent available. And let's not forget the other guy who arrived on the scene last season, the sabermetrician's dream himself Mike Trout. For all those people who jumped on Trout for not playing in the World Baseball Classic, I understand why he didn't. Trout didn't join the Angels until May last year. This is his first Major League Spring Training, and he's going into his first full season. If he was that good as a rookie, the sky's the limit for Trout. His arrival, as well as Mark Trumbo's emergence, also allowed the Angels to shed some dead contracts in Kendrys Morales, Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera and Vernon Wells. Although, they still think Peter Bourjos is a Major League center fielder for some reason that is beyond my realm on understanding. Trout's their best player and center field is his best position. Why do they insist on messing with that so that they can start a Quadruple-A player? (I would've kept Morales and taken the hit defensively by putting Trumbo in left.) As good as the heart of the Angels' lineup is, they don't have the greatest depth, which is another reason why I wouldn't have gotten rid of all the bench guys who made money. Regardless, I think their top talent makes them the best team in the AL West. That and the starting rotation, which is the best in the division. Jered Weaver is on the short-list of top pitchers in the American League (I've got him third behind Verlander and David Price), and C.J. Wilson's as good a No. 2 as you're gonna find. I'd like the rotation better if it still included Ervin Santana, but it's still very good. Whether or not they win the division might come down to how well the bullpen performs. More importantly, if Ernesto Frieri can be as good as he was last season.
Projected Record: 97-65
Projected Lineup: Mike Trout-LF, Erick Aybar-SS, Albert Pujols-1B, Josh Hamilton-RF, Mark Trumbo-DH, Howie Kendrick-2B, Chris Iannetta-C, Peter Bourjos-CF, Alberto Callaspo-3B
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas
Closer: Ernesto Frieri
2. Texas Rangers: The Rangers are certainly a different team than the one that went to back-to-back World Series. Michael Young, the Face of the Franchise for more than a decade, is gone now, which was in the best interest of all parties. Also gone is Josh Hamilton, the leader of this renaissance. They expect top prospect Jurickson Profar to be with the big club by midseason, but they have nowhere to put him (unless they turn him into an outfielder). Regardless, the Texas lineup is still loaded, and, while not as good as Hamilton and Young, Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski are adequate replacements. As for Hamilton's replacement in center field, Cuban rookie Leonys Martin will get the nod on Opening Day, but they also have Craig Gentry, who's serviceable if nothing else. Texas is going to score a lot of runs yet again. I'm somewhat worried about what will happen when they try to work Profar into the mix, though. They could run the risk of making Ian Kinsler or Elvis Andrus, two of their best players, very unhappy. The starting rotation has a solid top four anchored by Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison, and closer Joe Nathan looked like the Joe Nathan of old last season. The rest of the bullpen leading up to Nathan is pretty soft, though. Alexi Ogando was perfect in that setup role, but they're committed to him as a starter, and, frankly, the rotation's not as strong without him. As a result, the Rangers could be vulnerable in the middle innings. And that's where I think the Angels have a slight edge. These two rivals will be very close all season, but, especially after last season's collapse, I don't have as much faith in Texas as I used to.
Projected Record: 93-69
Projected Lineup: Elvis Andrus-SS, Ian Kinsler-2B, Adrian Beltre-3B, Nelson Cruz-RF, Lance Berkman-DH, A.J. Pierzynski-C, David Murphy-LF, Mitch Moreland-1B, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Matt Harrison, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Nick Tepesch
Closer: Joe Nathan
3. Oakland Athletics: I give the A's credit. After coming out of nowhere to win the division last season, they didn't just sit tight with the same team. They actually went out and got better, acquiring Chris Young from the Diamondbacks and Scott Sizemore from the Cardinals. They've also now got Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, although the contributions of Stephen Drew last season can't be overlooked. He was traded to Boston for Jed Lowrie, who's projected as the backup at both short and third. I'm also eager to see what Yoenis Cespedes can do for an encore after being everything he was hyped to be and more last year. He likely won't have to play the outfield this year, which could help his production. Oakland is, was and always will be about pitching, though. The thing they conveniently left out in "Moneyball" is that those A's teams of the early 2000s had Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito. That's why they won all those games back then. And the new Hudson-Mulder-Zito of Brett Anderson, Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker is why they won so many games last season. It's certainly a risk to rely so much on second-year starting pitchers. Especially on a team that's not going to score that many runs. However, they are blessed with one of the best bullpens in baseball. Closer Grant Balfour is outstanding, and Ryan Cook and Jerry Blevins might be the best righty-lefty setup combo out there. Especially after last year, the A's are entirely capable of challenging the Angels and Rangers again. They might even finish on top. I don't see how they don't have a drop off, though. They overachieved last season. Anaheim and Texas are more talented by far. It's not an insult to say Oakland's the third-best team in the AL West.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp-CF, Hiroyuki Nakajima-SS, Yoenis Cespedes-DH, Josh Reddick-RF, Chris Young-LF, Brendan Moss-1B, John Jaso-C, Scott Sizemore-2B, Josh Donaldson-3B
Projected Rotation: Brett Anderson, Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily
Closer: Grant Balfour
4. Seattle Mariners: There's probably no team happier that the Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West than the Seattle Mariners. Because even though they're still really bad, the Mariners are no longer the worst team in this division, and the likelihood of their climbing out of last place seems pretty high (even though they'll still finish fourth). I also give the Mariners a lot of credit for doing something about their anemic offense. The problem is that they got too many guys who play the same positions, though. Michael Morse and Jason Bay can't both play left field. Same thing about Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez at DH. And that's not even accounting for the fact that Jesus Montero has to catch now. He's not a good catcher. That's why the Yankees traded him, and that's why the Mariners stuck him at DH most of the time last year. I do think that the offense will be significantly improved, though. How can it not be? But, just as important as the guys they brought in, they had some good talent already there in Dustin Ackley, Franklin Gutierrez and Justin Smoak. Then there's Michael Saunders, who was a revelation during the WBC and looks primed for a big year. With the improved offense and the walls at Safeco Field finally being moved in, it's possible that Felix Hernandez might be allowed to give up more than two runs and still have a chance to win this season. It's no secret that this is King Felix's team now, a point that was made even more clear when Ichiro was traded to the Yankees in the middle of last season. Sadly, the rotation behind him isn't much better than it's been in past years, although Hisashi Iwakuma looks like the real deal, which would finally give Seattle the No. 2 starter it desperately needs. I like Joe Saunders as the No. 3 starter if for no other reason than he's a veteran innings-eater. I don't expect the Mariners to challenge the three top teams in the division. However, they're significantly better, and .500 is a reasonable goal. Playing the Astros 19 times is certainly going to help in that regard.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup: Franklin Gutierrez-CF, Dustin Ackley-2B, Michael Saunders-RF, Kendrys Morales-DH, Michael Morse-LF, Justin Smoak-1B, Jesus Montero-C, Kyle Seager-3B, Brendan Ryan-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Joe Saunders, Blake Beaven, Brandon Maurer
Closer: Tom Wilhelmsen
5. Houston Astros: After 51 seasons in the National League, the Houston Astros have a completely new identity in 2013. They've got new uniforms to go along with their new league. It's like they're an expansion team. Although, it's not a stretch to say they're going to look like one. They've lost 100 games in each of the last two years and there's not a single guy on the roster who anybody's ever heard of. Oh yeah, and they had to go get a DH, too. Fortunately, Carlos Pena was available to fill that role (it's funny that they've had a DH on the roster for all that time in Carlos Lee, but now that they're in the American League and actually need one, he's gone). This is a bad team that moved into a good division. It'll be a miracle if they don't lose 100 again. As for the "talent" on the Houston roster, the best player on the team has to be second baseman Jose Altuve. It's also possible you've heard of Rick Ankiel the pitching flameout-turned-outfielder. He'll play right. Shortstop Ronny Cedeno was on the Mets last season, and third baseman Matt Dominguez is the guy they got from Miami for Lee. They also got former A's first baseman Chris Carter, who'll get regular at-bats as the everyday left fielder. Center fielder Justin Maxwell really looks like the real deal, too. Houston's rotation is anchored by Bud Norris, who is at least a legitimate Major League starter. So is Texas native Philip Humber, who despite tossing a perfect game in May, was cut loose by the White Sox at the end of last season. Closer Jose Veras is on his fifth team in as many seasons, but he's at least a veteran presence in that bullpen. And frankly, does it really matter who the closer is? How many save situations is he actually going to have? Veras is clearly the best option in that spot, though, and he experienced more winning in March with the Dominican Republic in the WBC than he will all season in Houston. At least the Astros will win more games than the Texans.
Projected Record: 55-107
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Brett Wallace-1B, Justin Maxwell-CF, Carlos Pena-DH, Chris Carter-LF, Matt Dominguez-3B, Rick Ankiel-RF, Ronny Cedeno-SS, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Phillip Humber, Alex White, Erik Bedard
Closer: Jose Veras
I think the AL West is going to be very competitive this season. The Angels are the most talented team in the division, but that was true last year too and they finished third. The Rangers have lost a lot, so they're not as good as they've been, and who knows if the A's were a one-year wonder or that was the beginning of something? All three will also benefit from the 38 games they'll play against the Mariners and Astros, although vastly-improved Seattle is much more than just Felix Hernandez now.
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: The Angels already boasted one of the deepest rosters in baseball when they added Josh Hamilton. If you're keeping score, that's two consecutive winters in which the Angels got the best free agent available. And let's not forget the other guy who arrived on the scene last season, the sabermetrician's dream himself Mike Trout. For all those people who jumped on Trout for not playing in the World Baseball Classic, I understand why he didn't. Trout didn't join the Angels until May last year. This is his first Major League Spring Training, and he's going into his first full season. If he was that good as a rookie, the sky's the limit for Trout. His arrival, as well as Mark Trumbo's emergence, also allowed the Angels to shed some dead contracts in Kendrys Morales, Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera and Vernon Wells. Although, they still think Peter Bourjos is a Major League center fielder for some reason that is beyond my realm on understanding. Trout's their best player and center field is his best position. Why do they insist on messing with that so that they can start a Quadruple-A player? (I would've kept Morales and taken the hit defensively by putting Trumbo in left.) As good as the heart of the Angels' lineup is, they don't have the greatest depth, which is another reason why I wouldn't have gotten rid of all the bench guys who made money. Regardless, I think their top talent makes them the best team in the AL West. That and the starting rotation, which is the best in the division. Jered Weaver is on the short-list of top pitchers in the American League (I've got him third behind Verlander and David Price), and C.J. Wilson's as good a No. 2 as you're gonna find. I'd like the rotation better if it still included Ervin Santana, but it's still very good. Whether or not they win the division might come down to how well the bullpen performs. More importantly, if Ernesto Frieri can be as good as he was last season.
Projected Record: 97-65
Projected Lineup: Mike Trout-LF, Erick Aybar-SS, Albert Pujols-1B, Josh Hamilton-RF, Mark Trumbo-DH, Howie Kendrick-2B, Chris Iannetta-C, Peter Bourjos-CF, Alberto Callaspo-3B
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas
Closer: Ernesto Frieri
2. Texas Rangers: The Rangers are certainly a different team than the one that went to back-to-back World Series. Michael Young, the Face of the Franchise for more than a decade, is gone now, which was in the best interest of all parties. Also gone is Josh Hamilton, the leader of this renaissance. They expect top prospect Jurickson Profar to be with the big club by midseason, but they have nowhere to put him (unless they turn him into an outfielder). Regardless, the Texas lineup is still loaded, and, while not as good as Hamilton and Young, Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski are adequate replacements. As for Hamilton's replacement in center field, Cuban rookie Leonys Martin will get the nod on Opening Day, but they also have Craig Gentry, who's serviceable if nothing else. Texas is going to score a lot of runs yet again. I'm somewhat worried about what will happen when they try to work Profar into the mix, though. They could run the risk of making Ian Kinsler or Elvis Andrus, two of their best players, very unhappy. The starting rotation has a solid top four anchored by Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison, and closer Joe Nathan looked like the Joe Nathan of old last season. The rest of the bullpen leading up to Nathan is pretty soft, though. Alexi Ogando was perfect in that setup role, but they're committed to him as a starter, and, frankly, the rotation's not as strong without him. As a result, the Rangers could be vulnerable in the middle innings. And that's where I think the Angels have a slight edge. These two rivals will be very close all season, but, especially after last season's collapse, I don't have as much faith in Texas as I used to.
Projected Record: 93-69
Projected Lineup: Elvis Andrus-SS, Ian Kinsler-2B, Adrian Beltre-3B, Nelson Cruz-RF, Lance Berkman-DH, A.J. Pierzynski-C, David Murphy-LF, Mitch Moreland-1B, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Matt Harrison, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Nick Tepesch
Closer: Joe Nathan
3. Oakland Athletics: I give the A's credit. After coming out of nowhere to win the division last season, they didn't just sit tight with the same team. They actually went out and got better, acquiring Chris Young from the Diamondbacks and Scott Sizemore from the Cardinals. They've also now got Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, although the contributions of Stephen Drew last season can't be overlooked. He was traded to Boston for Jed Lowrie, who's projected as the backup at both short and third. I'm also eager to see what Yoenis Cespedes can do for an encore after being everything he was hyped to be and more last year. He likely won't have to play the outfield this year, which could help his production. Oakland is, was and always will be about pitching, though. The thing they conveniently left out in "Moneyball" is that those A's teams of the early 2000s had Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito. That's why they won all those games back then. And the new Hudson-Mulder-Zito of Brett Anderson, Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker is why they won so many games last season. It's certainly a risk to rely so much on second-year starting pitchers. Especially on a team that's not going to score that many runs. However, they are blessed with one of the best bullpens in baseball. Closer Grant Balfour is outstanding, and Ryan Cook and Jerry Blevins might be the best righty-lefty setup combo out there. Especially after last year, the A's are entirely capable of challenging the Angels and Rangers again. They might even finish on top. I don't see how they don't have a drop off, though. They overachieved last season. Anaheim and Texas are more talented by far. It's not an insult to say Oakland's the third-best team in the AL West.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp-CF, Hiroyuki Nakajima-SS, Yoenis Cespedes-DH, Josh Reddick-RF, Chris Young-LF, Brendan Moss-1B, John Jaso-C, Scott Sizemore-2B, Josh Donaldson-3B
Projected Rotation: Brett Anderson, Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily
Closer: Grant Balfour
4. Seattle Mariners: There's probably no team happier that the Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West than the Seattle Mariners. Because even though they're still really bad, the Mariners are no longer the worst team in this division, and the likelihood of their climbing out of last place seems pretty high (even though they'll still finish fourth). I also give the Mariners a lot of credit for doing something about their anemic offense. The problem is that they got too many guys who play the same positions, though. Michael Morse and Jason Bay can't both play left field. Same thing about Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez at DH. And that's not even accounting for the fact that Jesus Montero has to catch now. He's not a good catcher. That's why the Yankees traded him, and that's why the Mariners stuck him at DH most of the time last year. I do think that the offense will be significantly improved, though. How can it not be? But, just as important as the guys they brought in, they had some good talent already there in Dustin Ackley, Franklin Gutierrez and Justin Smoak. Then there's Michael Saunders, who was a revelation during the WBC and looks primed for a big year. With the improved offense and the walls at Safeco Field finally being moved in, it's possible that Felix Hernandez might be allowed to give up more than two runs and still have a chance to win this season. It's no secret that this is King Felix's team now, a point that was made even more clear when Ichiro was traded to the Yankees in the middle of last season. Sadly, the rotation behind him isn't much better than it's been in past years, although Hisashi Iwakuma looks like the real deal, which would finally give Seattle the No. 2 starter it desperately needs. I like Joe Saunders as the No. 3 starter if for no other reason than he's a veteran innings-eater. I don't expect the Mariners to challenge the three top teams in the division. However, they're significantly better, and .500 is a reasonable goal. Playing the Astros 19 times is certainly going to help in that regard.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup: Franklin Gutierrez-CF, Dustin Ackley-2B, Michael Saunders-RF, Kendrys Morales-DH, Michael Morse-LF, Justin Smoak-1B, Jesus Montero-C, Kyle Seager-3B, Brendan Ryan-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Joe Saunders, Blake Beaven, Brandon Maurer
Closer: Tom Wilhelmsen
5. Houston Astros: After 51 seasons in the National League, the Houston Astros have a completely new identity in 2013. They've got new uniforms to go along with their new league. It's like they're an expansion team. Although, it's not a stretch to say they're going to look like one. They've lost 100 games in each of the last two years and there's not a single guy on the roster who anybody's ever heard of. Oh yeah, and they had to go get a DH, too. Fortunately, Carlos Pena was available to fill that role (it's funny that they've had a DH on the roster for all that time in Carlos Lee, but now that they're in the American League and actually need one, he's gone). This is a bad team that moved into a good division. It'll be a miracle if they don't lose 100 again. As for the "talent" on the Houston roster, the best player on the team has to be second baseman Jose Altuve. It's also possible you've heard of Rick Ankiel the pitching flameout-turned-outfielder. He'll play right. Shortstop Ronny Cedeno was on the Mets last season, and third baseman Matt Dominguez is the guy they got from Miami for Lee. They also got former A's first baseman Chris Carter, who'll get regular at-bats as the everyday left fielder. Center fielder Justin Maxwell really looks like the real deal, too. Houston's rotation is anchored by Bud Norris, who is at least a legitimate Major League starter. So is Texas native Philip Humber, who despite tossing a perfect game in May, was cut loose by the White Sox at the end of last season. Closer Jose Veras is on his fifth team in as many seasons, but he's at least a veteran presence in that bullpen. And frankly, does it really matter who the closer is? How many save situations is he actually going to have? Veras is clearly the best option in that spot, though, and he experienced more winning in March with the Dominican Republic in the WBC than he will all season in Houston. At least the Astros will win more games than the Texans.
Projected Record: 55-107
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Brett Wallace-1B, Justin Maxwell-CF, Carlos Pena-DH, Chris Carter-LF, Matt Dominguez-3B, Rick Ankiel-RF, Ronny Cedeno-SS, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Phillip Humber, Alex White, Erik Bedard
Closer: Jose Veras
Friday, March 22, 2013
Baseball 2013, Part II
It was a weird year in the AL Central last season. Everybody, myself included, christened the Tigers as division champions in Spring Training, expecting them to run away with it from Opening Day to the end of the season, only to see the White Sox lead the division for five-and-a-half months. The Tigers got their acts together down the stretch, though, winning the division as expected, even if it was with only 88 wins. They truly showed their brilliance in October, getting by the A's and dominating the Yankees to win a pennant that surprised absolutely no one.
The scary thing about the Tigers is that they might be even better this year. Think about it. They've got the most dangerous 3-4 combo in the game in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, and this year Victor Martinez comes back to hit fifth. And they've still got 35, as well. Once again, this is Detroit's division to lose. The rest of the division is also better, though. Cleveland is vastly improved and could be a sleeper. And let's not forget that the Indians' new manager is two-time World Series winner Terry Francona. I expect Kansas City to be much better, too. The Royals are still probably a year or two away, but they could surprise.
Regardless, though, Detroit is far-and-away the class of the American League Central. A return trip to the World Series is not out of the question. Especially since they got swept last year.
1. Detroit Tigers: Where do I start about the Tigers? How about Miguel Cabrera, arguably the best player in the game? He changed positions last year, then went out and won the first Triple Crown since 1967, for which he was rightfully awarded the MVP. Yeah, they've also got the best pitcher in the game in Verlander, who was the MVP in 2011. If that's not enough, throw in Prince Fielder. And Victor Martinez. And Omar Infante. And Jhonny Peralta. And Austin Jackson. And Alex Avila. Delmon Young wasn't re-signed. Instead they replaced him with Torii Hunter, who isn't done yet and provides even more protection in the bottom-third of the order (he'll probably hit either sixth or seventh). The lineup is loaded from top to bottom, and it might not even be the most talented unit on the team. Verlander anchors an outstanding rotation that's so good Drew Smyly will likely start the season in the bullpen. My only issue with it is that all five of them are right-handed. If there's any issue with the Tigers, it's the bullpen. After he imploded in the playoffs, they didn't bring back Jose Valverde. That leaves the closer's role up for grabs. I thought they'd be in the mix for Rafael Soriano, but he ended up in Washington instead. The apparent favorite to land the closer job is rookie Bruce Rondon, but rookie closers are always risky propositions, especially for a good team. My vote would be for lights-out Al Albuquerque. Whoever ends up being the closer will define the other roles in that bullpen, which does have some good pieces in Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke and Octavio Dotel. Regardless, the Tigers are planning on playing deep into October again. I know I said that last year, too, and they didn't get their acts together until September. But they ended up in the World Series anyway, so who am I to question how you get there as long as you do?
Projected Record: 100-62
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Omar Infante-2B, Miguel Cabrera-3B, Prince Fielder-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Torii Hunter-RF, Andy Dirks-LF, Alex Avila-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello
Closer: Brandon Rondon
2. Cleveland Indians: Go ahead and accuse me of drinking the Kool-Aid, but I'm buying what the Cleveland Indians are selling. I have them pegged as one of the most improved teams in baseball, and I wouldn't be surprised if Terry Francona has them contending for a wild card. The reason I like Cleveland is because the additions they made during free agency fit well with what they already had in place. And they already had some really good pieces in Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley. I started feeling them after the signings of Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds and the Shin Soo-Choo for Drew Stubbs trade. But what really put me on the Indians bandwagon was that they were somehow the ones who landed Michael Bourn. How it took so long for him to sign is beyond me. They brought in Mike Aviles, too, and he isn't even projected to be a starter! The Indians are going to have a solid lineup, and I like it that some of the parts are interchangable. Swisher's going to start at first, but can move into the outfield when Santana gets his half off-days. And Reynolds is the projected DH, which means they don't have to worry about his errors (just his strikeouts). Although, they can use him at both corner infield spots, too. Behind Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, the rotation is a little weak, which is a concern. I'm also not sure how I feel about the bullpen other than Vinnie Pestano and closer Chris Perez, who had to miss the WBC because of injury. But as we saw in Baltimore last year, a no-name bullpen can turn into a strength. If it does, the Indians could stay in contention until the very end.
Projected Record: 88-74
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Carlos Santana-C, Mark Reynolds-DH, Nick Swisher-1B, Michael Brantley-LF, Drew Stubbs-RF, Jason Kipnis-2B, Lonnie Chisenhall-3B
Projected Rotation: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Myers, Carlos Carrasco, Scott Kazmir
Closer: Chris Perez
3. Kansas City Royals: The Royals have made it clear that they believe in themselves. Why else would they have traded for James Shields? I'm not saying this is going to be the year Kansas City becomes a contender. But I wouldn't be surprised if they hang around for a while and end up around .500, either. If you're bad long enough, you get enough high draft picks to build a team around. That's exactly what's happened in Kansas City, and all those guys are coming up to the Majors now. I'll take Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas any day. Those are great guys to build around. They just need one or two more to really make some noise. And the vastly-improved pitching staff is more than just Shields. Last year's No. 1 starter, Bruce Chen, is now fighting for the No. 5 job, which is a good thing. I'm not saying Chen's bad. He's just not a top-of-the-rotation starter. But with Shields and Wade Davis being joined by former Oriole/Rockie Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana, who was the victim of the Angels' pitching depth, Kansas City's rotation might actually be a strength this season. They're going to need to figure out the bullpen, though. I have no idea who they plan on using as their closer, or in any other relief role really. Tim Collins pitched for Team USA in the WBC, which marked the first time I've ever heard of him. Which is more than I can say for the rest of the Royals bullpen.
Projected Record: 79-83
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Chris Getz-2B, Eric Hosmer-1B, Alex Gordon-LF, Billy Butler-DH, Mike Moustakas-3B, Jeff Francoeur-RF, Alcides Escobar-SS, Salvador Perez-C
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, Bruce Chen
Closer: Greg Holland
4. Chicago White Sox: I think the White Sox surprised everybody last season. I certainly didn't expect them to even sniff first place, let alone lead the division until the Tigers' surge/their collapse in September. And I think it's safe to say they overachieved a little bit last season. I like a lot of individual players on this team. I just don't think they have enough to challenge the Tigers again. Adam Dunn had a tremendous comeback season after a historically bad 2011. It starts with him and Paul Konerko in the middle of the lineup. Alex Rios and Alejandro De Aza both played in the finals of the WBC, which should give them a boost going into the season. Rios especially. He was fantastic for Puerto Rico. Left fielder Dayan Viciedo had a good year in 2012, but overall I don't think the White Sox lineup is all that deep. This team does have four very good starting pitchers, though, which might be the key to winning games. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of 2-0 and 3-2 scores coming out of Comiskey this season. Chris Sale was an All-Star last season and is one of the better young pitchers in the game, and Jake Peavy finally appears to be back to the Jake Peavy of old, the one the White Sox thought they were getting from the Padres a couple years ago. Addison Reed went 29-for-33 in save opportunities last year, but the best arm in the bullpen belongs to left-handed setup guy Matt Thornton. This is virtually the same team the White Sox had last season, when they led the division for five months and finished second. With one big exception. A.J. Pierzynski is gone. I'm not sure anyone realizes how important he was to that team. I'm not saying the White Sox won't do what they did last season again. But on paper, they haven't gotten better while the rest of the divison has.
Projected Record: 76-86
Projected Lineup: Gordon Beckham-2B, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Paul Konerko-1B, Adam Dunn-DH, Alex Rios-RF, Dayan Viciedo-LF, Jeff Keppinger-3B, Tyler Flowers-C, Alejandro De Aza-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jose Quintana
Closer: Addison Reed
5. Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are two of the best, classiest players in baseball. They're the faces of the Minnesota Twins. And the franchise couldn't find two better players to represent them. The Twins have some major problems, though, not the least of which being that outside of Mauer and Morneau, they don't really have any stars on the roster. Let alone superstars. Yet the Twins had more players on WBC rosters than any other team, which I found incredibly interesting. Anyway, Minnesota finished in last place last season, and I don't see things getting much better this year. They had two more stars-in-the-making in center fielders Denard Span and Ben Revere, but they traded both of them in the offseason. The whole idea was to add more pitching, but their best pitcher, Scott Diamond, will start the season on the DL, and the rest of the rotation consists of other teams' castoffs (their top three starters are Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia). As for the bullpen, that's also a mess. Closer Glen Perkins isn't that bad, but save opportunities will likely be few and far between. It's been a long couple of seasons in Minnesota since they opened that beautiful new ballpark. They're in store for another one in 2013. If the Twins are going to contend for anything this season, it'll be contending with the Astros for the worst record in the American League.
Projected Record: 64-98
Projected Lineup: Aaron Hicks-CF, Jamey Carroll-2B, Joe Mauer-C, Justin Morneau-1B, Josh Willingham-LF, Chris Parmelee-RF, Ryan Doumit-DH, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Pedro Florimon-SS
Projected Rotation (on Opening Day): Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Liam Hendriks, Samuel Deduno (the winning pitcher in the WBC Championship Game)
Closer: Glen Perkins
The scary thing about the Tigers is that they might be even better this year. Think about it. They've got the most dangerous 3-4 combo in the game in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, and this year Victor Martinez comes back to hit fifth. And they've still got 35, as well. Once again, this is Detroit's division to lose. The rest of the division is also better, though. Cleveland is vastly improved and could be a sleeper. And let's not forget that the Indians' new manager is two-time World Series winner Terry Francona. I expect Kansas City to be much better, too. The Royals are still probably a year or two away, but they could surprise.
Regardless, though, Detroit is far-and-away the class of the American League Central. A return trip to the World Series is not out of the question. Especially since they got swept last year.
1. Detroit Tigers: Where do I start about the Tigers? How about Miguel Cabrera, arguably the best player in the game? He changed positions last year, then went out and won the first Triple Crown since 1967, for which he was rightfully awarded the MVP. Yeah, they've also got the best pitcher in the game in Verlander, who was the MVP in 2011. If that's not enough, throw in Prince Fielder. And Victor Martinez. And Omar Infante. And Jhonny Peralta. And Austin Jackson. And Alex Avila. Delmon Young wasn't re-signed. Instead they replaced him with Torii Hunter, who isn't done yet and provides even more protection in the bottom-third of the order (he'll probably hit either sixth or seventh). The lineup is loaded from top to bottom, and it might not even be the most talented unit on the team. Verlander anchors an outstanding rotation that's so good Drew Smyly will likely start the season in the bullpen. My only issue with it is that all five of them are right-handed. If there's any issue with the Tigers, it's the bullpen. After he imploded in the playoffs, they didn't bring back Jose Valverde. That leaves the closer's role up for grabs. I thought they'd be in the mix for Rafael Soriano, but he ended up in Washington instead. The apparent favorite to land the closer job is rookie Bruce Rondon, but rookie closers are always risky propositions, especially for a good team. My vote would be for lights-out Al Albuquerque. Whoever ends up being the closer will define the other roles in that bullpen, which does have some good pieces in Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke and Octavio Dotel. Regardless, the Tigers are planning on playing deep into October again. I know I said that last year, too, and they didn't get their acts together until September. But they ended up in the World Series anyway, so who am I to question how you get there as long as you do?
Projected Record: 100-62
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Omar Infante-2B, Miguel Cabrera-3B, Prince Fielder-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Torii Hunter-RF, Andy Dirks-LF, Alex Avila-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello
Closer: Brandon Rondon
2. Cleveland Indians: Go ahead and accuse me of drinking the Kool-Aid, but I'm buying what the Cleveland Indians are selling. I have them pegged as one of the most improved teams in baseball, and I wouldn't be surprised if Terry Francona has them contending for a wild card. The reason I like Cleveland is because the additions they made during free agency fit well with what they already had in place. And they already had some really good pieces in Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley. I started feeling them after the signings of Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds and the Shin Soo-Choo for Drew Stubbs trade. But what really put me on the Indians bandwagon was that they were somehow the ones who landed Michael Bourn. How it took so long for him to sign is beyond me. They brought in Mike Aviles, too, and he isn't even projected to be a starter! The Indians are going to have a solid lineup, and I like it that some of the parts are interchangable. Swisher's going to start at first, but can move into the outfield when Santana gets his half off-days. And Reynolds is the projected DH, which means they don't have to worry about his errors (just his strikeouts). Although, they can use him at both corner infield spots, too. Behind Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, the rotation is a little weak, which is a concern. I'm also not sure how I feel about the bullpen other than Vinnie Pestano and closer Chris Perez, who had to miss the WBC because of injury. But as we saw in Baltimore last year, a no-name bullpen can turn into a strength. If it does, the Indians could stay in contention until the very end.
Projected Record: 88-74
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Carlos Santana-C, Mark Reynolds-DH, Nick Swisher-1B, Michael Brantley-LF, Drew Stubbs-RF, Jason Kipnis-2B, Lonnie Chisenhall-3B
Projected Rotation: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Myers, Carlos Carrasco, Scott Kazmir
Closer: Chris Perez
3. Kansas City Royals: The Royals have made it clear that they believe in themselves. Why else would they have traded for James Shields? I'm not saying this is going to be the year Kansas City becomes a contender. But I wouldn't be surprised if they hang around for a while and end up around .500, either. If you're bad long enough, you get enough high draft picks to build a team around. That's exactly what's happened in Kansas City, and all those guys are coming up to the Majors now. I'll take Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas any day. Those are great guys to build around. They just need one or two more to really make some noise. And the vastly-improved pitching staff is more than just Shields. Last year's No. 1 starter, Bruce Chen, is now fighting for the No. 5 job, which is a good thing. I'm not saying Chen's bad. He's just not a top-of-the-rotation starter. But with Shields and Wade Davis being joined by former Oriole/Rockie Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana, who was the victim of the Angels' pitching depth, Kansas City's rotation might actually be a strength this season. They're going to need to figure out the bullpen, though. I have no idea who they plan on using as their closer, or in any other relief role really. Tim Collins pitched for Team USA in the WBC, which marked the first time I've ever heard of him. Which is more than I can say for the rest of the Royals bullpen.
Projected Record: 79-83
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Chris Getz-2B, Eric Hosmer-1B, Alex Gordon-LF, Billy Butler-DH, Mike Moustakas-3B, Jeff Francoeur-RF, Alcides Escobar-SS, Salvador Perez-C
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, Bruce Chen
Closer: Greg Holland
4. Chicago White Sox: I think the White Sox surprised everybody last season. I certainly didn't expect them to even sniff first place, let alone lead the division until the Tigers' surge/their collapse in September. And I think it's safe to say they overachieved a little bit last season. I like a lot of individual players on this team. I just don't think they have enough to challenge the Tigers again. Adam Dunn had a tremendous comeback season after a historically bad 2011. It starts with him and Paul Konerko in the middle of the lineup. Alex Rios and Alejandro De Aza both played in the finals of the WBC, which should give them a boost going into the season. Rios especially. He was fantastic for Puerto Rico. Left fielder Dayan Viciedo had a good year in 2012, but overall I don't think the White Sox lineup is all that deep. This team does have four very good starting pitchers, though, which might be the key to winning games. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of 2-0 and 3-2 scores coming out of Comiskey this season. Chris Sale was an All-Star last season and is one of the better young pitchers in the game, and Jake Peavy finally appears to be back to the Jake Peavy of old, the one the White Sox thought they were getting from the Padres a couple years ago. Addison Reed went 29-for-33 in save opportunities last year, but the best arm in the bullpen belongs to left-handed setup guy Matt Thornton. This is virtually the same team the White Sox had last season, when they led the division for five months and finished second. With one big exception. A.J. Pierzynski is gone. I'm not sure anyone realizes how important he was to that team. I'm not saying the White Sox won't do what they did last season again. But on paper, they haven't gotten better while the rest of the divison has.
Projected Record: 76-86
Projected Lineup: Gordon Beckham-2B, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Paul Konerko-1B, Adam Dunn-DH, Alex Rios-RF, Dayan Viciedo-LF, Jeff Keppinger-3B, Tyler Flowers-C, Alejandro De Aza-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jose Quintana
Closer: Addison Reed
5. Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are two of the best, classiest players in baseball. They're the faces of the Minnesota Twins. And the franchise couldn't find two better players to represent them. The Twins have some major problems, though, not the least of which being that outside of Mauer and Morneau, they don't really have any stars on the roster. Let alone superstars. Yet the Twins had more players on WBC rosters than any other team, which I found incredibly interesting. Anyway, Minnesota finished in last place last season, and I don't see things getting much better this year. They had two more stars-in-the-making in center fielders Denard Span and Ben Revere, but they traded both of them in the offseason. The whole idea was to add more pitching, but their best pitcher, Scott Diamond, will start the season on the DL, and the rest of the rotation consists of other teams' castoffs (their top three starters are Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia). As for the bullpen, that's also a mess. Closer Glen Perkins isn't that bad, but save opportunities will likely be few and far between. It's been a long couple of seasons in Minnesota since they opened that beautiful new ballpark. They're in store for another one in 2013. If the Twins are going to contend for anything this season, it'll be contending with the Astros for the worst record in the American League.
Projected Record: 64-98
Projected Lineup: Aaron Hicks-CF, Jamey Carroll-2B, Joe Mauer-C, Justin Morneau-1B, Josh Willingham-LF, Chris Parmelee-RF, Ryan Doumit-DH, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Pedro Florimon-SS
Projected Rotation (on Opening Day): Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Liam Hendriks, Samuel Deduno (the winning pitcher in the WBC Championship Game)
Closer: Glen Perkins
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Baseball 2013, Part I
The World Baseball Classic has come to an end. Congratulations to the Dominican Republic on a very well-deserved championship. And with that, we now turn our attention back to Spring Training. We're less than two weeks away from Opening Day, which has been back to the first Monday in April where it belongs this year. This year, of course, brings with it a bunch of changes, mostly involving the schedule. The Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West, evening out the two leagues at 15 and 15. It also means that interleague play is now going to be every day of the season and everybody in each division is going to play virtually the same schedule (including a whole lot of division games).
I always break the baseball preview into six parts, looking at each division separately. This year's no different. And I'll start where I always start...with the AL East. It's been a strange offseason in the AL East to say the least. Mainly because the two powers aren't a cut above everyone else like they usually are. I can't remember the last time we went into a season where neither one was favored in the division, but that's the case this year. The Red Sox hit rock bottom last season, don't appear to have gotten much better and might be looking at another last-place finish. The Yankees are old and injured and will be lucky to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Orioles had a dream season last year and Tampa Bay's always in contention. But the team to watch in the AL East is the Toronto Blue Jays. On paper, this is the best Toronto team since their back-to-back World Championships 20 years ago. It's not a stretch to say the Blue Jays are the favorites in a division that's been turned completely upside down.
1. Toronto Blue Jays: Look who remembered they don't play in a small market! They, of course, made the biggest splash of the offseason when they pulled off that major trade for every player on the Marlins that anybody's ever heard of (except for Giancarlo Stanton). But they didn't stop there, also getting All-Star Game MVP Melky Cabrera and Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey. Critics of the trade like to point out that these are the same people who, despite high expectations, led the Marlins to a last-place finish last season, but I don't think that'll happen in Toronto. For starters, the Blue Jays already had a number of solid pieces on the team. These guys are making an already good team better. But more importantly, the pitching in Toronto is significantly better than the pitching in Miami. It needs to be in this division. Consider, Ricky Romero was the ace of this staff last season, and he's likely going to be the No. 4 starter in the rotation now. Without being matched up against the CC Sabathias, Felix Hernandezes and Justin Verlanders of this world anymore, Romero could have a big year. And after that lost year in Miami, Mark Buehrle should bounce back now that he's back in the AL where he's comfortable. And don't get me started on that lineup. It's not fair how good this team could be. They're going to hit a lot of home runs and win a lot of games. Will it be enough to win the best division in baseball?
Projected Record: 98-64
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Melky Cabrera-LF, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-1B, Adam Lind-DH, Brett Lawrie-3B, Colby Rasmus-CF, J.P. Arencibia-C, Maicer Izturis-2B
Projected Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow
Closer: Casey Janssen
2. New York Yankees: Call me a blindly loyal optimist, but I think second place is very attainable. Sure, they didn't sign anybody worthwhile in free agency and a different starter goes down with an injury every other day, but if they can survive April at right around .500, I don't think they'll be in bad shape when everybody comes back. I also don't think a trade between now and the start of the season is completely out of the question. But here's the thing, regardless of age and injuries, they're still going to be a very good team. That's what happens when you have this much talent on the roster. Robinson Cano, fresh off being named MVP of the WBC, is going to have to carry the offense for a little while, if not the entire season, but you know somebody unexpected is going to big a big contributor in this lineup the way Raul Ibanez was last year. And as blasphemous as it makes me sound, I really like the addition of Kevin Youkilis. He fills a need, can still produce, and is a very good fit in this lineup. He'll be incredibly important, especially until Teixeira and/or A-Rod comes back. With all the questions in the lineup, though, the Yankees might have to win games differently this season. With pitching. Let's not forget how good the front end of that rotation is (Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte), and the back end of that bullpen has the great Mariano Rivera for one final go-round. If nothing else, this season will be Mo's Farewell Tour, which will make the 2013 campaign worthwhile no matter how many games the Yankees win. Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees win!
Projected Record: 94-68
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Derek Jeter-SS, Ichiro Suzuki-RF, Robinson Cano-2B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, Travis Hafner-DH, Juan Rivera-1B, Brennan Boesch-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Brett Gardner-CF
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova
Closer: Mariano Rivera
3. Tampa Bay Rays: There's one reason why the Rays, despite their low payroll, are always in the mix in this division. It's because of their pitching. An outstanding rotation and a top-notch bullpen, anchored by Fernando Rodney, he of the 0.60 ERA last season and seven saves in eight WBC games. Even with James Shields gone (traded to Kansas City), the rotation is among the best in the game, and David Price and Jeremy Hellickson represent one of the top 1-2 punches out there. With that pitching staff, Tampa Bay's always going to hang around despite the constantly-changing lineup. The free agent position player exodus continued, as B.J. Upton signed with the Braves and Carlos Pena now with the Astros. Upton's departure gives Desmond Jennings the opportunity to play center field every day. It also gives them the chance to move Matt Joyce to left and install Ben Zobrist as the everyday right fielder. I love Ben Zobrist and his value cannot be understated. But I think giving him a full-time role at the same position could end up being a good thing in the long run. The Rays' best player, of course, is Evan Longoria, though. As goes Longoria, so goes Tampa Bay. Upton's gone, so this year his protection comes in the form of James Loney, the former Dodger who got shipped to the Red Sox in last season's "please take everybody we've got who we don't want" trade. I like him in Tampa Bay. And he's better than Carlos Pena. Yunel Escobar is the new shortstop, which is an upgrade defensively. They'll do their typical thing. They won't score a ton of runs (and their lineup's a little too left-handed in my opinion), but they'll scrap, pitch and play solid defense, which should keep them in the race well into September.
Projected Record: 90-72
Projected Lineup: Desmond Jennings-CF, Yunel Escobar-SS, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Matt Joyce-LF, Ben Zobrist-RF, Luke Scott-DH, Ryan Roberts-2B, Jose Molina-C
Projected Rotation: David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Alex Cobb
Closer: Fernando Rodney
4. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles struck lightning in a bottle last season. I'm not saying it can't happen again. They've got a young, talented team that got a wealth of valuable experience last season. I'm just saying you can't count on everything that went their way in 2012 going that same way again in 2013. They won a ridiculous number of one-run and extra-inning games last season. Law of averages says that'll have to balance out. And that bullpen, while talented, can't be expected to put up those same unreal numbers again. However, the Orioles repeating last season's magic wouldn't be that surprising, either. They've got some of the best young talent in the game in the likes of Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. They don't have the home run-or-strikeout that is Mark Reynolds anymore, and instead will be able to give Chris Davis regular at-bats either at first base or DH. Davis is too valuable a member of this lineup to be stuck in a part-time role. They'll also get a full year of Manny Machado, who was incredibly impressive during his stretch run call-up last season. I'm tabbing him as my early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, especially now that he's not going to be learning third base on the job. A full year of Nate McLouth will be another benefit. One of the Orioles' constant problems before McLouth's arrival was their lack of a leadoff man. He solved that problem. Of course, they have another leadoff man on the roster in Brian Roberts, but he's had so much trouble staying healthy over the past couple seasons that they finally realized they can't rely on his bat at the top of the order. (Last year they had Markakis leading off for a while before he broke his hand.) If Roberts stays healthy, though, that's a formidable 1-2 punch setting the table for Markakis, Jones and Wieters.
Projected Record: 87-75
Projected Lineup: Nate McLouth-LF, Brian Roberts-2B, Nick Markakis-RF, Adam Jones-CF, Matt Wieters-C, Chris Davis-1B, Wilson Betemit-DH, Manny Machado-3B, J.J. Hardy-SS
Projected Rotation: Jason Hammel, Wei-Yen Chen, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Jake Arrieta
Closer: Jim Johnson
5. Boston Red Sox: After last year's debacle, they know that this season can't be any worse. I'm not sure it'll be much better, though. Bringing in John Farrell as the new manager was certainly a good move, and the Red Sux will be their usual annoying selves before long. But they're looking at another year of rebuiliding first. They made that clear with the salary-dumping trade to the Dodgers in the middle of last season. They didn't completely ignore the free agent market, though, signing Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Joel Hanrahan. This is going to be a different Boston team, and with the incredible depth of this division, it's probably a stretch to consider them playoff contenders. Trying to finish .500 and avoid another last place finish seem like more reasonable goals. Those seem attainable, especially since some of the usual suspects from the championship teams (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz) are still around. The rotation's nowhere as good as it's been in the past, either. Buchholz and Lester are still worth the money, but I'm sure they wish they had the money they're paying John Lackey back, and I'm not sure what you can expect from Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempster. The bullpen's decent with a pair of former All-Stars (Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey) at the back end, but they're still looking for a new Jonathan Papelbon and it's not either one of those guys. The one positive thing about the Red Sox is that I'll have a certain level of pride when Ryan Lavarnway's name is introduced at Yankee Stadium on Opening Day. It's so cool for me to be able to say "I knew him when," and it's great that Ryan is getting to live his dream. He'll be on a Major League roster on Opening Day. That's enough to give even a Yankee fan goosebumps.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Daniel Nava-LF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Mike Napoli-1B, Shane Victorino-RF, Jonny Gomes-DH, Willie Middlebrooks-3B, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Felix Doubront, Ryan Dempster
Closer: Joel Hanrahan
I always break the baseball preview into six parts, looking at each division separately. This year's no different. And I'll start where I always start...with the AL East. It's been a strange offseason in the AL East to say the least. Mainly because the two powers aren't a cut above everyone else like they usually are. I can't remember the last time we went into a season where neither one was favored in the division, but that's the case this year. The Red Sox hit rock bottom last season, don't appear to have gotten much better and might be looking at another last-place finish. The Yankees are old and injured and will be lucky to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Orioles had a dream season last year and Tampa Bay's always in contention. But the team to watch in the AL East is the Toronto Blue Jays. On paper, this is the best Toronto team since their back-to-back World Championships 20 years ago. It's not a stretch to say the Blue Jays are the favorites in a division that's been turned completely upside down.
1. Toronto Blue Jays: Look who remembered they don't play in a small market! They, of course, made the biggest splash of the offseason when they pulled off that major trade for every player on the Marlins that anybody's ever heard of (except for Giancarlo Stanton). But they didn't stop there, also getting All-Star Game MVP Melky Cabrera and Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey. Critics of the trade like to point out that these are the same people who, despite high expectations, led the Marlins to a last-place finish last season, but I don't think that'll happen in Toronto. For starters, the Blue Jays already had a number of solid pieces on the team. These guys are making an already good team better. But more importantly, the pitching in Toronto is significantly better than the pitching in Miami. It needs to be in this division. Consider, Ricky Romero was the ace of this staff last season, and he's likely going to be the No. 4 starter in the rotation now. Without being matched up against the CC Sabathias, Felix Hernandezes and Justin Verlanders of this world anymore, Romero could have a big year. And after that lost year in Miami, Mark Buehrle should bounce back now that he's back in the AL where he's comfortable. And don't get me started on that lineup. It's not fair how good this team could be. They're going to hit a lot of home runs and win a lot of games. Will it be enough to win the best division in baseball?
Projected Record: 98-64
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Melky Cabrera-LF, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-1B, Adam Lind-DH, Brett Lawrie-3B, Colby Rasmus-CF, J.P. Arencibia-C, Maicer Izturis-2B
Projected Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow
Closer: Casey Janssen
2. New York Yankees: Call me a blindly loyal optimist, but I think second place is very attainable. Sure, they didn't sign anybody worthwhile in free agency and a different starter goes down with an injury every other day, but if they can survive April at right around .500, I don't think they'll be in bad shape when everybody comes back. I also don't think a trade between now and the start of the season is completely out of the question. But here's the thing, regardless of age and injuries, they're still going to be a very good team. That's what happens when you have this much talent on the roster. Robinson Cano, fresh off being named MVP of the WBC, is going to have to carry the offense for a little while, if not the entire season, but you know somebody unexpected is going to big a big contributor in this lineup the way Raul Ibanez was last year. And as blasphemous as it makes me sound, I really like the addition of Kevin Youkilis. He fills a need, can still produce, and is a very good fit in this lineup. He'll be incredibly important, especially until Teixeira and/or A-Rod comes back. With all the questions in the lineup, though, the Yankees might have to win games differently this season. With pitching. Let's not forget how good the front end of that rotation is (Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte), and the back end of that bullpen has the great Mariano Rivera for one final go-round. If nothing else, this season will be Mo's Farewell Tour, which will make the 2013 campaign worthwhile no matter how many games the Yankees win. Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees win!
Projected Record: 94-68
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Derek Jeter-SS, Ichiro Suzuki-RF, Robinson Cano-2B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, Travis Hafner-DH, Juan Rivera-1B, Brennan Boesch-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Brett Gardner-CF
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova
Closer: Mariano Rivera
3. Tampa Bay Rays: There's one reason why the Rays, despite their low payroll, are always in the mix in this division. It's because of their pitching. An outstanding rotation and a top-notch bullpen, anchored by Fernando Rodney, he of the 0.60 ERA last season and seven saves in eight WBC games. Even with James Shields gone (traded to Kansas City), the rotation is among the best in the game, and David Price and Jeremy Hellickson represent one of the top 1-2 punches out there. With that pitching staff, Tampa Bay's always going to hang around despite the constantly-changing lineup. The free agent position player exodus continued, as B.J. Upton signed with the Braves and Carlos Pena now with the Astros. Upton's departure gives Desmond Jennings the opportunity to play center field every day. It also gives them the chance to move Matt Joyce to left and install Ben Zobrist as the everyday right fielder. I love Ben Zobrist and his value cannot be understated. But I think giving him a full-time role at the same position could end up being a good thing in the long run. The Rays' best player, of course, is Evan Longoria, though. As goes Longoria, so goes Tampa Bay. Upton's gone, so this year his protection comes in the form of James Loney, the former Dodger who got shipped to the Red Sox in last season's "please take everybody we've got who we don't want" trade. I like him in Tampa Bay. And he's better than Carlos Pena. Yunel Escobar is the new shortstop, which is an upgrade defensively. They'll do their typical thing. They won't score a ton of runs (and their lineup's a little too left-handed in my opinion), but they'll scrap, pitch and play solid defense, which should keep them in the race well into September.
Projected Record: 90-72
Projected Lineup: Desmond Jennings-CF, Yunel Escobar-SS, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Matt Joyce-LF, Ben Zobrist-RF, Luke Scott-DH, Ryan Roberts-2B, Jose Molina-C
Projected Rotation: David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Alex Cobb
Closer: Fernando Rodney
4. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles struck lightning in a bottle last season. I'm not saying it can't happen again. They've got a young, talented team that got a wealth of valuable experience last season. I'm just saying you can't count on everything that went their way in 2012 going that same way again in 2013. They won a ridiculous number of one-run and extra-inning games last season. Law of averages says that'll have to balance out. And that bullpen, while talented, can't be expected to put up those same unreal numbers again. However, the Orioles repeating last season's magic wouldn't be that surprising, either. They've got some of the best young talent in the game in the likes of Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. They don't have the home run-or-strikeout that is Mark Reynolds anymore, and instead will be able to give Chris Davis regular at-bats either at first base or DH. Davis is too valuable a member of this lineup to be stuck in a part-time role. They'll also get a full year of Manny Machado, who was incredibly impressive during his stretch run call-up last season. I'm tabbing him as my early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, especially now that he's not going to be learning third base on the job. A full year of Nate McLouth will be another benefit. One of the Orioles' constant problems before McLouth's arrival was their lack of a leadoff man. He solved that problem. Of course, they have another leadoff man on the roster in Brian Roberts, but he's had so much trouble staying healthy over the past couple seasons that they finally realized they can't rely on his bat at the top of the order. (Last year they had Markakis leading off for a while before he broke his hand.) If Roberts stays healthy, though, that's a formidable 1-2 punch setting the table for Markakis, Jones and Wieters.
Projected Record: 87-75
Projected Lineup: Nate McLouth-LF, Brian Roberts-2B, Nick Markakis-RF, Adam Jones-CF, Matt Wieters-C, Chris Davis-1B, Wilson Betemit-DH, Manny Machado-3B, J.J. Hardy-SS
Projected Rotation: Jason Hammel, Wei-Yen Chen, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Jake Arrieta
Closer: Jim Johnson
5. Boston Red Sox: After last year's debacle, they know that this season can't be any worse. I'm not sure it'll be much better, though. Bringing in John Farrell as the new manager was certainly a good move, and the Red Sux will be their usual annoying selves before long. But they're looking at another year of rebuiliding first. They made that clear with the salary-dumping trade to the Dodgers in the middle of last season. They didn't completely ignore the free agent market, though, signing Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Joel Hanrahan. This is going to be a different Boston team, and with the incredible depth of this division, it's probably a stretch to consider them playoff contenders. Trying to finish .500 and avoid another last place finish seem like more reasonable goals. Those seem attainable, especially since some of the usual suspects from the championship teams (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz) are still around. The rotation's nowhere as good as it's been in the past, either. Buchholz and Lester are still worth the money, but I'm sure they wish they had the money they're paying John Lackey back, and I'm not sure what you can expect from Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempster. The bullpen's decent with a pair of former All-Stars (Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey) at the back end, but they're still looking for a new Jonathan Papelbon and it's not either one of those guys. The one positive thing about the Red Sox is that I'll have a certain level of pride when Ryan Lavarnway's name is introduced at Yankee Stadium on Opening Day. It's so cool for me to be able to say "I knew him when," and it's great that Ryan is getting to live his dream. He'll be on a Major League roster on Opening Day. That's enough to give even a Yankee fan goosebumps.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Daniel Nava-LF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Mike Napoli-1B, Shane Victorino-RF, Jonny Gomes-DH, Willie Middlebrooks-3B, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Felix Doubront, Ryan Dempster
Closer: Joel Hanrahan
Monday, March 18, 2013
Women's Tournament Analysis
It probably took the selection committee a grand total of about 11 seconds to come up with the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Women's Tournament. Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn and Stanford have been by far the four best teams in women's college basketball this season (in that order) that the only suspense coming into today surrounded who else would be placed in their respective regions. Three of the four are hosting in the first two rounds, and they've all known which regionals they're going to for about two months.
As a result of that dominance, I think it'll be very tough for anybody to break up that quartet's collision course for New Orleans. It's cliche to go with the chalk and take all four No. 1 seeds, as well as all foru teams that made the Final Four the year before, but I think I might have to break both of those golden rules this year. Because I'm not sure who I see beating any of them before the Final Four. The good news is if they all make it, we'll have three phenomenal games in store once they hit the Big Easy.
OKLAHOMA CITY: Defending National Champion Baylor would like to make sure Brittany Griner goes out just like Diana Taurasi and Candace Parker before her...an all-time great winning a second straight title to cap her collegiate career. The road to the Final Four looks fairly easy, as it should for the defending champion and No. 1 overall seed. The Louisville-Purdue game in the second round could be interesting, and I like Oklahoma to beat UCLA, but this region has a Baylor-Tennessee rematch written all over it. Last year, of course, Pat Summitt's final game was a loss to Baylor in the Elite Eight, ending Tennessee's run of every senior class having been to at least one Final Four during their careers. Unfortunately, it looks like it's going to be five straight years for the Lady Vols. Because, while they're the only team in this region that can actually play with Baylor, their fate's going to be the same. The Sweet Sixteen victims will be Purdue (Baylor) and Oklahoma (Tennessee) before Baylor beats Tennessee in the regional final.
SPOKANE: I absolutely hate the way the women's tournament is structured sometimes. Two years ago, Baylor and Texas A&M were the top two seeds in the same region and played for the fourth time that season in the regional final. This year, the same thing is the case with Stanford and archrival Cal, the No. 1 and 2 seeds out west. They really need to consider adopting the same rule the men have where the top three teams in a conference automatically have to be placed in different regions. Because it's not fair to either one that they'll have to meet again with a spot in the Final Four on the line. (I would've placed Cal in Oklahoma City.) Anyway, if any of the 1-seeds is going to lose before the Final Four, it might be Stanford. Cal is arguably the best 2-seed, and Penn State was probably going to get one as well, but dropped to a 3 after losing in the Big Ten Tournament. Despite both playing on the road in the second round, I expect to see a great Sweet Sixteen matchup between Penn State and Cal. The fourth team in the regional semis might be a surprise, though. Georgia's the No. 4 seed, but that's an intriguing 5-12 matchup between Iowa State and Gonzaga. The Zags are hosting both the first round and the regional (which is technically hosted by Washington State, which is why they're allowed to play there). They've made the Sweet Sixteen in each of the last two years, and a return trip doesn't seem that far out of the question. However, I think they're going to lose to Iowa State, and the Cyclones will be Stanford's victim in the Sweet Sixteen. It'll be close in the regional final, but I do think Stanford gets through by beating Penn State.
NORFOLK: I would love to see Notre Dame win the national title. For several reasons. Not the least of which is that Skylar Diggins deserves it. Especially after losing in the Championship Game two years in a row. One of the teams that beat the Irish for the title was Texas A&M, which is the No. 3 seed here and a potential Elite Eight opponent. Notre Dame should also be weary of a good Duke team lurking with that No. 2 seed. The Blue Devils were probably the only other team to enter that 1-seed discussion (they were ranked No. 5 pretty much all year), and if anybody is going to break up the quartet, it might be them. This is the region where I see the chalk playing out the most. Fifth-seeded Colorado would be hosting fourth-seeded South Carolina in the second round, but I still think South Carolina wins that game. That means all four top seeds advance to Norfolk: Notre Dame, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Duke. We get a great Notre Dame-Duke regional final (which will be a conference game in the ACC next season). While I think it'll be close, the Fighting Irish are the better team and should get through to another Final Four.
BRIDGEPORT: The NCAA makes it as easy as possible for UConn to advance to the Final Four every year. I can't remember the last time they played a regional outside of the Northeast. This year, they don't even need to leave the State of Connecticut. The teams in this region don't look like they'll pose much of a challenge for the Huskies either. The Maryland-Michigan State game could be entertaining (side note that I find personally amusing: Marist and Quinnipiac will be the two best teams in the MAAC next season, and they could end up playing each other should they both pull the first-round upset), but neither one will beat UConn. I think this might be the year Delaware finally makes it to the second week, which would be an appropriate send-off for Elena Delle Done (the former UConn recruit) after all she's done for that program. Kentucky should also easily get through to the regional final, where it will be the same story as last year. A loss to UConn, as the Huskies get back to another Final Four.
Final Four: Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame, Connecticut
Like I said, it's cliche to take all four 1-seeds. I admit it. But I'll be shocked if they don't all end up in New Orleans. They're all that much better than everybody else. Stanford handed Baylor its only loss over the last two years, which means the Final Four rematch won't be a pushover like it was last year (when they were both much better teams). However, I don't think the result will be any different. Stanford's string of Final Four losses will continue. They're the fourth-best team in the country. But that's just the problem. They're the fourth-best.
As for the other semifinal, it's only fitting that the final chapter of the UConn-Notre Dame rivalry would come in the Final Four. It's perhaps the best conference rivalry that women's college basketball has ever seen, but is yet another casualty of the breakup of the Big East. Anyway, UConn has four losses this year. One to Baylor and three to Notre Dame, including the Big East final. Throw in a loss to the Fighting Irish in the 2012 Final Four, and I think it's pretty clear that Notre Dame has UConn's number. I'm not sure that changes in New Orleans. Next year when they don't have to play each other as often (and, more importantly, Skylar Diggins is gone), maybe UConn will turn the tide, but I see Notre Dame pulling off the rare feat of knocking off the same opponent four times in one season.
That gives us a National Championship Game rematch between Baylor and Notre Dame. Baylor was clearly the far superior team last year, and they proved it in the final. The gap isn't as great this season, but the Bears are still better. While it would be great to see Skylar Diggins get the championship she deserves in her final game in a Notre Dame uniform, I think the senior who wins a national title in her final game will be one of the most dominant players of her generation, if not all-time. Brittany Griner. Baylor goes back-to-back.
As a result of that dominance, I think it'll be very tough for anybody to break up that quartet's collision course for New Orleans. It's cliche to go with the chalk and take all four No. 1 seeds, as well as all foru teams that made the Final Four the year before, but I think I might have to break both of those golden rules this year. Because I'm not sure who I see beating any of them before the Final Four. The good news is if they all make it, we'll have three phenomenal games in store once they hit the Big Easy.
OKLAHOMA CITY: Defending National Champion Baylor would like to make sure Brittany Griner goes out just like Diana Taurasi and Candace Parker before her...an all-time great winning a second straight title to cap her collegiate career. The road to the Final Four looks fairly easy, as it should for the defending champion and No. 1 overall seed. The Louisville-Purdue game in the second round could be interesting, and I like Oklahoma to beat UCLA, but this region has a Baylor-Tennessee rematch written all over it. Last year, of course, Pat Summitt's final game was a loss to Baylor in the Elite Eight, ending Tennessee's run of every senior class having been to at least one Final Four during their careers. Unfortunately, it looks like it's going to be five straight years for the Lady Vols. Because, while they're the only team in this region that can actually play with Baylor, their fate's going to be the same. The Sweet Sixteen victims will be Purdue (Baylor) and Oklahoma (Tennessee) before Baylor beats Tennessee in the regional final.
SPOKANE: I absolutely hate the way the women's tournament is structured sometimes. Two years ago, Baylor and Texas A&M were the top two seeds in the same region and played for the fourth time that season in the regional final. This year, the same thing is the case with Stanford and archrival Cal, the No. 1 and 2 seeds out west. They really need to consider adopting the same rule the men have where the top three teams in a conference automatically have to be placed in different regions. Because it's not fair to either one that they'll have to meet again with a spot in the Final Four on the line. (I would've placed Cal in Oklahoma City.) Anyway, if any of the 1-seeds is going to lose before the Final Four, it might be Stanford. Cal is arguably the best 2-seed, and Penn State was probably going to get one as well, but dropped to a 3 after losing in the Big Ten Tournament. Despite both playing on the road in the second round, I expect to see a great Sweet Sixteen matchup between Penn State and Cal. The fourth team in the regional semis might be a surprise, though. Georgia's the No. 4 seed, but that's an intriguing 5-12 matchup between Iowa State and Gonzaga. The Zags are hosting both the first round and the regional (which is technically hosted by Washington State, which is why they're allowed to play there). They've made the Sweet Sixteen in each of the last two years, and a return trip doesn't seem that far out of the question. However, I think they're going to lose to Iowa State, and the Cyclones will be Stanford's victim in the Sweet Sixteen. It'll be close in the regional final, but I do think Stanford gets through by beating Penn State.
NORFOLK: I would love to see Notre Dame win the national title. For several reasons. Not the least of which is that Skylar Diggins deserves it. Especially after losing in the Championship Game two years in a row. One of the teams that beat the Irish for the title was Texas A&M, which is the No. 3 seed here and a potential Elite Eight opponent. Notre Dame should also be weary of a good Duke team lurking with that No. 2 seed. The Blue Devils were probably the only other team to enter that 1-seed discussion (they were ranked No. 5 pretty much all year), and if anybody is going to break up the quartet, it might be them. This is the region where I see the chalk playing out the most. Fifth-seeded Colorado would be hosting fourth-seeded South Carolina in the second round, but I still think South Carolina wins that game. That means all four top seeds advance to Norfolk: Notre Dame, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Duke. We get a great Notre Dame-Duke regional final (which will be a conference game in the ACC next season). While I think it'll be close, the Fighting Irish are the better team and should get through to another Final Four.
BRIDGEPORT: The NCAA makes it as easy as possible for UConn to advance to the Final Four every year. I can't remember the last time they played a regional outside of the Northeast. This year, they don't even need to leave the State of Connecticut. The teams in this region don't look like they'll pose much of a challenge for the Huskies either. The Maryland-Michigan State game could be entertaining (side note that I find personally amusing: Marist and Quinnipiac will be the two best teams in the MAAC next season, and they could end up playing each other should they both pull the first-round upset), but neither one will beat UConn. I think this might be the year Delaware finally makes it to the second week, which would be an appropriate send-off for Elena Delle Done (the former UConn recruit) after all she's done for that program. Kentucky should also easily get through to the regional final, where it will be the same story as last year. A loss to UConn, as the Huskies get back to another Final Four.
Final Four: Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame, Connecticut
Like I said, it's cliche to take all four 1-seeds. I admit it. But I'll be shocked if they don't all end up in New Orleans. They're all that much better than everybody else. Stanford handed Baylor its only loss over the last two years, which means the Final Four rematch won't be a pushover like it was last year (when they were both much better teams). However, I don't think the result will be any different. Stanford's string of Final Four losses will continue. They're the fourth-best team in the country. But that's just the problem. They're the fourth-best.
As for the other semifinal, it's only fitting that the final chapter of the UConn-Notre Dame rivalry would come in the Final Four. It's perhaps the best conference rivalry that women's college basketball has ever seen, but is yet another casualty of the breakup of the Big East. Anyway, UConn has four losses this year. One to Baylor and three to Notre Dame, including the Big East final. Throw in a loss to the Fighting Irish in the 2012 Final Four, and I think it's pretty clear that Notre Dame has UConn's number. I'm not sure that changes in New Orleans. Next year when they don't have to play each other as often (and, more importantly, Skylar Diggins is gone), maybe UConn will turn the tide, but I see Notre Dame pulling off the rare feat of knocking off the same opponent four times in one season.
That gives us a National Championship Game rematch between Baylor and Notre Dame. Baylor was clearly the far superior team last year, and they proved it in the final. The gap isn't as great this season, but the Bears are still better. While it would be great to see Skylar Diggins get the championship she deserves in her final game in a Notre Dame uniform, I think the senior who wins a national title in her final game will be one of the most dominant players of her generation, if not all-time. Brittany Griner. Baylor goes back-to-back.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Men's Tournament Analysis
Looking at the NCAA Tournament bracket, I can't say I'm too surprised about that much of it. The four No. 1 seeds were correct, as were the four No. 2 seeds. Some of the lower seeds didn't make much sense (Oregon a 12?), but, for the most part, I think the field was seeded fairly. The teams that did and didn't get in weren't really much of a surprise, either. I had Virginia and Kentucky in over Middle Tennessee and Boise State, but otherwise, I was right-on with all of the at-large teams. And I'm not going to disagree with the committee's decision to reward good teams from mid-majors.
As for who's going to win the Tournament, that's anybody's guess. This year has been so unpredictable that there's probably a dozen teams that have a realistic shot at winnign the National Championship, and even more that could be considered Final Four contenders. If I had to make a pick right now, I'd have to say that I'm more inclined to go with the teams that are the hottest right now. That means the conference champions in the BCS leagues. Or, in other words, the likes of Louisville, Kansas and Miami. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a New Mexico or a Wisconsin make its way to Atlanta either.
So, how do I see the Tournament shaping up? Let's take a look...
MIDWEST: Louisville's the No. 1 overall seed and certainly looks to have a relatively easy road back to the Final Four, as they should. The bottom half of this bracket is very interesting, though. There's that potential Sweet Sixteen matchup between Duke and Michigan State, and Tom Izzo always finds some way to get Michigan State to the Final Four no matter what their seed is. Saint Louis is a potential sleeper team in this region. They're a lot better than people think. Same thing with Oregon. The Ducks are incredibly under-seeded at 12, and I think they'll beat Oklahoma State for your yearly 5-12 upset. Creighton's dangerous, too. Duke needs to bring its game in the second round. I think the Blue Devils survive, but it'll be a close one. As for my picks in this region, I'm going with Louisville vs. Saint Louis and Michigan State vs. Duke. And in the regional final, a rematch of one from last year, I'm going with the opposite result. Michigan State over Louisville.
WEST: Even though they're the lowest ranked of the 1-seeds, Gonzaga might have the easiest road to the Final Four. Ohio State is the fourth 2-seed, yet they got shipped out west as the potential regional final opponent for the Zags. Some crazy things might happen in the West region, though. Wisconsin could easily beat Gonzaga, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to Ole Miss, either. The winner of that game beats Kansas State. The Arizona-New Mexico winner could run the table and go to Atlanta. That's a tremendous second-round matchup, and Ohio State needs to be ready for either one. That is, if the Buckeyes even get past the Notre Dame-Iowa State winner. As much as I like Notre Dame, I'm picking Iowa State in that game solely because I hope I never see those disgusting uniforms Notre Dame wore in the Big East Tournament again. The picks are Gonzaga, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Ohio State. Gonzaga and New Mexico in the regional final, with the Zags going to the Final Four.
SOUTH: Ladies and gentlemen, be weary. The Kansas Jayhawks have been awakened. Another Big 12 title. Another No. 1 seed. Is another deep run in the NCAA Tournament far behind? Don't forget, this team made it to the Championship Game last year, and has a lot of the same pieces back. Oh, and let's not forget the Roy Williams Bowl against North Carolina in the second round. We might see some upsets in the South region. Michigan looked like a potential Final Four team a few weeks ago. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to South Dakota State. Same thing with VCU and Akron. Minnesota would've been a tough draw for UCLA anyway. Without Jordan Adams, I see the Bruins having a really hard time with the Gophers. A lot of people are high in Georgetown (and I'm one of them), but Florida has been to back-to-back Elite Eights. Even though the SEC was down this year, they're a very dangerous team come this time of year. I'm going to take Kansas against Akron in one Sweet Sixteen matchup and Florida vs. Georgetown in the other. And this year Florida finally gets over that hump and back to the Final Four by beating Kansas.
EAST: If not for that early exit in the Big Ten Tournament, Indiana would've been the No. 1 overall seed in the Tournament. That was made pretty clear when the committee chairman said there wasn't even a discussion about moving Indiana off the 1-line. The only thing that not being No. 1 overall cost them was a regional in Indianapolis. But they still get to go to Washington, which isn't that bad of a trip. They drew the best No. 2 seed in Miami, but I'm still not sold on the Hurricanes, even after they won the ACC regular season and tournament titles. I don't know how I feel about Syracuse, and Cal is a dangerous matchup for UNLV, especially in San Jose, which is about seven feet from the Cal campus. Butler-Bucknell's an interesting matchup, too. I'm going with Syracuse to meet Indiana in the Sweet Sixteen, only because they would beat Cal if Cal beats UNLV, which is a distinct possibility. As much as I've liked Marquette all season, I don't like that matchup against Butler-Bucknell. As a result, I'm going with Butler-Miami in the other regional semi. This is my only 1 vs. 2 regional final, with Indiana beating Miami.
Final Four: So, that gives us Michigan State vs. Gonzaga and Florida vs. Indiana in the Final Four. I think Michigan State would actually be a pretty favorable matchup for the Zags. Gonzaga has one of the best, if not THE BEST, frontcourts in the country. They first became the nation's darlings 14 years ago when they came out of nowhere and made the Elite Eight. How much greater will the love affair become when they reach the National Championship Game this season?
As for their opponent, I've gotta go with the Hoosiers. I've thought all year that Indiana was the best team in the nation. The same was true with Kentucky last year. If the Hoosiers hit their stride, nobody's going to beat them. Not Florida, and not Gonzaga. We celebrate the 75th anniversary of March Madness with one of the most decorated teams in college basketball history winning its first National Championship in 26 years.
As for who's going to win the Tournament, that's anybody's guess. This year has been so unpredictable that there's probably a dozen teams that have a realistic shot at winnign the National Championship, and even more that could be considered Final Four contenders. If I had to make a pick right now, I'd have to say that I'm more inclined to go with the teams that are the hottest right now. That means the conference champions in the BCS leagues. Or, in other words, the likes of Louisville, Kansas and Miami. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a New Mexico or a Wisconsin make its way to Atlanta either.
So, how do I see the Tournament shaping up? Let's take a look...
MIDWEST: Louisville's the No. 1 overall seed and certainly looks to have a relatively easy road back to the Final Four, as they should. The bottom half of this bracket is very interesting, though. There's that potential Sweet Sixteen matchup between Duke and Michigan State, and Tom Izzo always finds some way to get Michigan State to the Final Four no matter what their seed is. Saint Louis is a potential sleeper team in this region. They're a lot better than people think. Same thing with Oregon. The Ducks are incredibly under-seeded at 12, and I think they'll beat Oklahoma State for your yearly 5-12 upset. Creighton's dangerous, too. Duke needs to bring its game in the second round. I think the Blue Devils survive, but it'll be a close one. As for my picks in this region, I'm going with Louisville vs. Saint Louis and Michigan State vs. Duke. And in the regional final, a rematch of one from last year, I'm going with the opposite result. Michigan State over Louisville.
WEST: Even though they're the lowest ranked of the 1-seeds, Gonzaga might have the easiest road to the Final Four. Ohio State is the fourth 2-seed, yet they got shipped out west as the potential regional final opponent for the Zags. Some crazy things might happen in the West region, though. Wisconsin could easily beat Gonzaga, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to Ole Miss, either. The winner of that game beats Kansas State. The Arizona-New Mexico winner could run the table and go to Atlanta. That's a tremendous second-round matchup, and Ohio State needs to be ready for either one. That is, if the Buckeyes even get past the Notre Dame-Iowa State winner. As much as I like Notre Dame, I'm picking Iowa State in that game solely because I hope I never see those disgusting uniforms Notre Dame wore in the Big East Tournament again. The picks are Gonzaga, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Ohio State. Gonzaga and New Mexico in the regional final, with the Zags going to the Final Four.
SOUTH: Ladies and gentlemen, be weary. The Kansas Jayhawks have been awakened. Another Big 12 title. Another No. 1 seed. Is another deep run in the NCAA Tournament far behind? Don't forget, this team made it to the Championship Game last year, and has a lot of the same pieces back. Oh, and let's not forget the Roy Williams Bowl against North Carolina in the second round. We might see some upsets in the South region. Michigan looked like a potential Final Four team a few weeks ago. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to South Dakota State. Same thing with VCU and Akron. Minnesota would've been a tough draw for UCLA anyway. Without Jordan Adams, I see the Bruins having a really hard time with the Gophers. A lot of people are high in Georgetown (and I'm one of them), but Florida has been to back-to-back Elite Eights. Even though the SEC was down this year, they're a very dangerous team come this time of year. I'm going to take Kansas against Akron in one Sweet Sixteen matchup and Florida vs. Georgetown in the other. And this year Florida finally gets over that hump and back to the Final Four by beating Kansas.
EAST: If not for that early exit in the Big Ten Tournament, Indiana would've been the No. 1 overall seed in the Tournament. That was made pretty clear when the committee chairman said there wasn't even a discussion about moving Indiana off the 1-line. The only thing that not being No. 1 overall cost them was a regional in Indianapolis. But they still get to go to Washington, which isn't that bad of a trip. They drew the best No. 2 seed in Miami, but I'm still not sold on the Hurricanes, even after they won the ACC regular season and tournament titles. I don't know how I feel about Syracuse, and Cal is a dangerous matchup for UNLV, especially in San Jose, which is about seven feet from the Cal campus. Butler-Bucknell's an interesting matchup, too. I'm going with Syracuse to meet Indiana in the Sweet Sixteen, only because they would beat Cal if Cal beats UNLV, which is a distinct possibility. As much as I've liked Marquette all season, I don't like that matchup against Butler-Bucknell. As a result, I'm going with Butler-Miami in the other regional semi. This is my only 1 vs. 2 regional final, with Indiana beating Miami.
Final Four: So, that gives us Michigan State vs. Gonzaga and Florida vs. Indiana in the Final Four. I think Michigan State would actually be a pretty favorable matchup for the Zags. Gonzaga has one of the best, if not THE BEST, frontcourts in the country. They first became the nation's darlings 14 years ago when they came out of nowhere and made the Elite Eight. How much greater will the love affair become when they reach the National Championship Game this season?
As for their opponent, I've gotta go with the Hoosiers. I've thought all year that Indiana was the best team in the nation. The same was true with Kentucky last year. If the Hoosiers hit their stride, nobody's going to beat them. Not Florida, and not Gonzaga. We celebrate the 75th anniversary of March Madness with one of the most decorated teams in college basketball history winning its first National Championship in 26 years.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
October Baseball In March
So, nobody cares about the World Baseball Classic, huh? Would you mind telling the players that. Because I don't think they got the memo. If you've watched the WBC at all over the past two weeks, you'd see that the World Baseball Classic means a great deal. And some of the games have matched the intensity that you'd normally only find in October.
National pride is a wonderful thing. That's at the heart of this tournament. And it's on display in full force. When you have Major Leaguers representing their home countries, you get tense, close, exciting games that make you forget it's still Spring Training. Better still, you've got Major League All-Stars willing to come off the bench or play a different position just to be a part of this thing. The pride of playing for their country means that much. Everybody's on the top step of the dugout at key moments of the game, and big hits/outs are celebrated the same way you'd see in the postseason. All because of the name on the front of the jersey.
And the fans have been just as into it. They're invested in every pitch, and you see the crowd celebrate wins and big hits as if they're at a parade on a national holiday. In the stands, its sounds like you're at a European or South American soccer game (especially when one of the Caribbean teams is playing).
If you want excitement, some of the games have more than delivered. Take the Netherlands, the surprise team of the tournament. They clobbered Korea to advance to the second round, where they beat Cuba twice. In the game that would decide who moved on to the championship round, the Dutch were winning until the Cubans tied it in the top of the ninth, only to see the Netherlands score the winning run on a walk-off, eliminating the top-ranked team in the world. Or that Chinese Taipei-South Korea game in the first round. South Korea scored three in the bottom of the eighth to win 3-2, only to be eliminated anyway. Or the Dominican Republic-Italy game the other day. Italy put up a four-spot in the top of the first, but the Dominicans clawed all the way back and won 5-4, sealing it in the bottom of the eighth.
Sure, you've had your mercy-rule thumpings, but that's to be expected. And it's OK. Sometimes that happens. When you get Cuba vs. China in baseball, 12-0 isn't a surprise. But even some of the blowouts we didn't see coming. Canada losing 14-4 to Italy, then beating Mexico 10-3 the next day?
Speaking of Canada-Italy, that game provided us with what has to be the most surreal moment of the tournament by far. That loss to Italy is probably what prompted all of it. Because run differential was the primary tiebreaker in the first round, Canadian catcher Chris Robinson dropped down a beautiful bunt for a base hit leading off the ninth, despite being up 9-3. The Mexican third baseman took offense and told the pitcher to hit the next guy, which he did. A full-blown bench-clearing brawl ensued, the highlight of which was Red Sox pitcher Alfredo Aceves getting body-slammed by the 5'9, 180-pound Canadian center fielder. That and Oliver Perez running around looking for anybody to punch. It was ugly, and the fact that Mexican fans were sitting right behind the Canadian dugout and continued things in the stands didn't help matters. But you're not going to see passion like that if this thing doesn't matter.
There's been plenty of surprises, too. The Netherlands going all the way to the semifinals. Venezuela, one of the pre-tournament favorites, losing its first two games and getting knocked out in the first round. Same thing with 2009 finalist South Korea. Or Italy winning its first two games to be the first to clinch a berth in the second round in a group that also included the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Things looked hairy for the U.S. after dropping its opener to Mexico. Then David Wright hit a grand slam and it all changed. That loss to the Dominican Republic notwithstanding.
David Wright has been one of the many stars in midseason form. Robinson Cano might be the only player giving him a run for his money for tournament MVP. And the way Miguel Tejada's playing, he could very well end up on a Major League roster this season based solely on what he's done in the WBC. (It worked for Pudge Rodriguez in 2009.) Same with Andruw Jones, who's going to play in Japan this season.
My only wish for the next time the World Baseball Classic comes around in 2017 is that Major League clubs finally go all-in. Because the World Baseball Classic is so good for the game. Stop worrying about potential injury or pitch counts. Players will get a lot more out of participation in the WBC than they will in two at-bats in a meaningless Spring Training game.
The World Baseball Classic is Bud Selig's baby. It's time for the owners and GMs to get on board with his creation. Becuase the WBC isn't going anywhere. And if this year's tournament has proved anything, it's that it's only going to get better.
National pride is a wonderful thing. That's at the heart of this tournament. And it's on display in full force. When you have Major Leaguers representing their home countries, you get tense, close, exciting games that make you forget it's still Spring Training. Better still, you've got Major League All-Stars willing to come off the bench or play a different position just to be a part of this thing. The pride of playing for their country means that much. Everybody's on the top step of the dugout at key moments of the game, and big hits/outs are celebrated the same way you'd see in the postseason. All because of the name on the front of the jersey.
And the fans have been just as into it. They're invested in every pitch, and you see the crowd celebrate wins and big hits as if they're at a parade on a national holiday. In the stands, its sounds like you're at a European or South American soccer game (especially when one of the Caribbean teams is playing).
If you want excitement, some of the games have more than delivered. Take the Netherlands, the surprise team of the tournament. They clobbered Korea to advance to the second round, where they beat Cuba twice. In the game that would decide who moved on to the championship round, the Dutch were winning until the Cubans tied it in the top of the ninth, only to see the Netherlands score the winning run on a walk-off, eliminating the top-ranked team in the world. Or that Chinese Taipei-South Korea game in the first round. South Korea scored three in the bottom of the eighth to win 3-2, only to be eliminated anyway. Or the Dominican Republic-Italy game the other day. Italy put up a four-spot in the top of the first, but the Dominicans clawed all the way back and won 5-4, sealing it in the bottom of the eighth.
Sure, you've had your mercy-rule thumpings, but that's to be expected. And it's OK. Sometimes that happens. When you get Cuba vs. China in baseball, 12-0 isn't a surprise. But even some of the blowouts we didn't see coming. Canada losing 14-4 to Italy, then beating Mexico 10-3 the next day?
Speaking of Canada-Italy, that game provided us with what has to be the most surreal moment of the tournament by far. That loss to Italy is probably what prompted all of it. Because run differential was the primary tiebreaker in the first round, Canadian catcher Chris Robinson dropped down a beautiful bunt for a base hit leading off the ninth, despite being up 9-3. The Mexican third baseman took offense and told the pitcher to hit the next guy, which he did. A full-blown bench-clearing brawl ensued, the highlight of which was Red Sox pitcher Alfredo Aceves getting body-slammed by the 5'9, 180-pound Canadian center fielder. That and Oliver Perez running around looking for anybody to punch. It was ugly, and the fact that Mexican fans were sitting right behind the Canadian dugout and continued things in the stands didn't help matters. But you're not going to see passion like that if this thing doesn't matter.
There's been plenty of surprises, too. The Netherlands going all the way to the semifinals. Venezuela, one of the pre-tournament favorites, losing its first two games and getting knocked out in the first round. Same thing with 2009 finalist South Korea. Or Italy winning its first two games to be the first to clinch a berth in the second round in a group that also included the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Things looked hairy for the U.S. after dropping its opener to Mexico. Then David Wright hit a grand slam and it all changed. That loss to the Dominican Republic notwithstanding.
David Wright has been one of the many stars in midseason form. Robinson Cano might be the only player giving him a run for his money for tournament MVP. And the way Miguel Tejada's playing, he could very well end up on a Major League roster this season based solely on what he's done in the WBC. (It worked for Pudge Rodriguez in 2009.) Same with Andruw Jones, who's going to play in Japan this season.
My only wish for the next time the World Baseball Classic comes around in 2017 is that Major League clubs finally go all-in. Because the World Baseball Classic is so good for the game. Stop worrying about potential injury or pitch counts. Players will get a lot more out of participation in the WBC than they will in two at-bats in a meaningless Spring Training game.
The World Baseball Classic is Bud Selig's baby. It's time for the owners and GMs to get on board with his creation. Becuase the WBC isn't going anywhere. And if this year's tournament has proved anything, it's that it's only going to get better.
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