Remember last season when two teams from the NL Central played each other in the NLCS? Well, two free agent departures later, the NL Central has turned into what's probably baseball's weakest division. It might take only 88-89 wins to win the division, and it should be a wide open race between three teams. The other three have absolutely no shot at contending. Two of them would have trouble beating a good Triple-A team.
1. Cincinnati Reds-With Albert and Prince now applying their trade in the AL West, the best first baseman in the National League is Joey Votto. The Reds won the division in 2010, then finished a disappointing third last season. But while Milwaukee and St. Louis both suffered some pretty significant losses during the offseason, Cincinnati didn't. In fact, the Reds got better, trading for the Padres' Mat Latos to be their No. 1 starter. With Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo, that's three quality starters. And word is that they want Aroldis Chapman to be a starter this season. Imagine facing that guy three times a game? With Homer Bailey and Mike Leake, Dusty Baker also has the option of putting Chapman back in the bullpen. Closer Frank Francisco went to Toronto as a free agent, but never fear. Former Phillie Ryan Madson, who's much better than Francisco, has arrived to fill that role. And we all know they're going to hit. Votto's obviously the man, but Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips can flat rake, too. Bringing in Ryan Ludwick gives them another veteran bat in the middle of the lineup, and his defense in left field should be an upgrade over Jonny Gomes, who was a DH playing for a National League team. From what I've heard and read, rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco is the real deal. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts on Opening Day. My only slight problem with Cincinnati's lineup is Drew Stubbs, who's not a leadoff hitter, in the leadoff spot, but that's minor. The Reds are the class of a weak division. They're not goign to run away with the division title, but I'd be surprised if they're not playing in October.
Lineup: Drew Stubbs-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Scott Rolen-3B, Ryan Ludwick-LF, Zack Cozart-SS, Ryan Hanigan-C
Rotation: Mat Latos, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey
Closer: Ryan Madson
Projected Record: 89-73
2. St. Louis Cardinals-I don't know if you heard, but Albert's not on the Cardinals anymore. It's still a little inconceivable to picture him in a different uniform, but I digress. St. Louis looks to defend a World Series title without two of the most important figures from last year's championship run. Future Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa retired, and the reins were handed to former Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny, who's never managed at any level. Regardless, even without the Big Guy, St. Louis is in position to contend in this division this season. Lose Albert? No big deal. We'll just go out and get Carlos Beltran. Beltran's no Pujols (no one is), but he's a veteran bat that could help fill that massive void in the lineup. Plus, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and David Freese, the new Face of the Franchise, all return. In a weak division, the Cardinals have a good enough lineup to contend for a playoff berth. But perhaps their biggest offseason addition is a guy who was already on their payroll--Adam Wainwright. Think about it. The Cardinals won the World Series despite not having their best starting pitcher for the entire season. With Wainwright back, Chris Carpenter won't have to throw the ridiculous number of innings he did last season. Having both of them makes the Cardinals' rotation much more formidable. I'm nervous about Jason Motte as the closer, though. Even still, the Cardinals are capable of winning 87-88 games this season. And that might be enough to win the division.
Lineup: Rafael Furcal-SS, Skip Schumaker-2B, Carlos Beltran-RF, Matt Holliday-LF, Lance Berkman-1B, David Freese-3B, Yadier Molina-C, John Jay-CF
Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook
Closer: Jason Motte
Projected Record: 87-75
3. Milwaukee Brewers-The Milwaukee Brewers were one of the best stories in baseball in 2011, winning their first division title in nearly 30 years. The 2012 season is going to be a little different. Prince Fielder's gone, and they almost lost Good Old Boy Ryan Braun to a 50-game steroid suspension before he got off on a technicality. They're trying to replace Fielder at first base with Mat Gamel, a quadruple-A player. As for the "protection" behind Braun, that job falls to Aramis Ramirez, who's making the rounds in the NL Central. I'm not even sure the type of numbers Braun's going to be able to put up. His Golden Boy image is gone, and he's going to hear the boos everywhere but Milwaukee. Add that to the pressure of having to carry a Prince-less lineup, and things might not be too easy for Ryan Braun in 2012. Needless to say, the Brewers offense isn't going to be anywhere near as good as it was last season. Milwaukee's still going to compete, though. The Brewers' pitching is too good. Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum are a very good top three, and Randy Wolf, one of those pesky serviceable veterans, will be an innings-eater. Plus, they boast the luxury of having two solid closers--Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford. Just like last year, if the Brewers can take a lead into the seventh, they're going to win a lot of games with those two in the back of the bullpen.
Lineup: Nyjer Morgan-CF, Rickie Weeks-2B, Ryan Braun-LF, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Corey Hart-RF, Mat Gamel-1B, Alex Gonzalez-SS, Jonathan Lucroy-C
Rotation: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, Chris Narveson
Closer: John Axford
Projected Record: 86-76
4. Pittsburgh Pirates-For four months last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates resembled a Major League baseball team. Then for the final two months, they resumed being the Pittsburgh Pirates. This team is so frustrating because they're so bad every year that they collect so many high draft picks, yet still can't find a way to win. Those guys are starting to make it to the majors, and they're so talented it's not even funny. I absolutely love Andrew McCutchen. And Neil Walker. And Garrett Jones. And Jose Tabata. Pedro Alvarez, however, is another story. That guy's a mess. They've got enough veterans around those guys to have a decent lineup. Pitching has always been the Pirates' weakness. Whenever they get a decent pitcher, they ship him off to one of the good teams at the trade deadline. There are definitely candidates for that role this season, namely reliever Evan Meek and closer Joel Hanrahan, but the Pirates did something completely out of character during the offseason and acquired a veteran pitcher to be their ace. That guy is A.J. Burnett. Say what you want about A.J., but I always thought he got a bit of a bad rep with the Yankees. I'm among the many that's convinced he can still be an above-average Major League starter. Maybe a change of scenery was what he needed. And you can't get much different from New York than Pittsburgh. Instead of being expected to win every night, A.J.'s job is going to be eating innings for a Pirates team that would be thrilled if he finishes .500. I'm rooting for A.J.
Lineup: Alex Presley-LF, Jose Tabata-RF, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Neil Walker-2B, Pedro Alvarez-3B, Garrett Jones-1B, Rod Barajas-C, Clint Barmes-SS
Rotation: A.J. Burnett, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, Charlie Morton, James McDonald
Closer: Joel Hanrahan
Projected Record: 78-84
5. Chicago Cubs-Theo Epstein was a savior in Boston after breaking the Curse and leading the Red Sox to a pair of World Series titles. Now he's the president of the Cubs, who have a little World Series drought of their own and fans that are just as crazy. Unfortunately, he takes over a Cubs team that's light on talent. Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto are studs. That's about it. Carlos Pena struck out all the time, but he still led the team in home runs last year. And as much of a black hole he was at third base, the loss of Aramis Ramirez puts a big dent in the lineup. Alfonso Soriano's still there, but I've never seen a player get so old so quickly. The big offseason additions are David DeJesus and Ian Stewart. Need I say more? Fortunately, the Cubs have decent pitching. If he gets off to a good start, Matt Garza will be trade bait come July. Ryan Dempster's a decent No. 1. He isn't great, but he isn't bad either. Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood are nasty in the back end of the bullpen. For once, that pitching staff doesn't include Carlos Zambrano. One of Theo's first moves was dumping that clubhouse cancer and all the drama he brought with him. Let's see if a better clubhose makes for a better team in Wrigleyville.
Lineup: David DeJesus-RF, Starlin Castro-SS, Marlon Byrd-CF, Bryan LaHair-1B, Alfonso Soriano-LF, Ian Stewart-3B, Geovany Soto-C, Darwin Barney-2B
Rotation: Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Volstad
Closer: Carlos Marmol
Projected Record: 71-91
6. Houston Astros-In their 50th anniversary season (and final year in the National League), the Astros will resemble an expansion team. Outside of Carlos Lee, I'm not sure I'd be able to name anybody on Houston's roster without looking it up. As for Lee, he was good five years ago. Now he's just old. So old, in fact, that the Astros are moving him to first base this season because he can't play the outfield anymore. Fortunately, they won't need to go out and get a DH when they move to the AL West next year. In fact, they'll have two DH options next season. Jack Cust is now on the roster. So is former Red Sok Jed Lowrie, who'll finally get the chance to be an everyday shortstop. Last year they had Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn before dumping both of them at the trade deadline. Everyone thought they were going to trade Wandy Rodriguez, too, but, alas Rodriguez is still in Houston. He's the "ace" of the pitching staff. Their best pitcher is probably Brett Myers, who's being moved from the rotation to closer. Why is a team this bad taking its best starter and turning him into a closer when he'll get maybe two save situations a week? I think they'd be better off with Myers in the rotation, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter. The final season of National League baseball in Houston will be painful for Astros fans to watch. They're lucky that Major League Baseball doesn't have the European soccer relegation system. Otherwise, they'd be in danger of becoming members of the International League in 2013. As it is, they'll be reborn as members of the AL West next year, although I don't see their prospects looking much better against the Angels and Rangers. (At least they got away from Albert for one year.)
Lineup: Jordan Schafer-CF, Jose Altuve-2B, Chris Johnson-3B, Carlos Lee-1B, J.D. Martinez-LF, Jed Lowrie-SS, Jason Castro-C, Brian Bogusevic-RF
Rotation: Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, J.A. Happ, Jordan Lyles, Kevin Weiland
Closer: Brett Myers
Projected Record: 56-106
Friday, March 30, 2012
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
The Baseball Preview, Part IV
Now that I've taken a look at all three American League divisions, it's time to move over to the Senior Circuit. The National League has won consecutive All-Star Games, and two National League teams--the Giants and Cardinals--have won the last two World Series, but the exodus of star players to the American League has swung the pendulum back in that direction, I think. While there are a number of good teams in the National League, I think most people would agree with me that the four best teams in baseball (Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Rangers) are all in the American League. But that's not to say there won't be some enjoyable National League baseball this season. Just the opposite in fact. I think the National League is wide open, meaning there will be a lot of good races.
The race that has potential to be the best one is in the NL East. The Phillies have been the class of this division for the last five years, but that could easily change this year. With their new name, new logo and new ballpark, the Marlisn have a new attitude. They're actually going to try to be competitive. The Braves had the wild card won last year until their September collapse, and they've got their nucleus back. And I think the Nationals are going to be much better. Poor Mets.
1. Philadelphia Phillies-Even though the rest of the division has closed the gap, the Phillies still have the most talented team in the NL East. The injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley obviously aren't good, but if the Phillies can tread water with both of them out of the lineup, I can easily see them taking off if Howard and Utley stay healthy and productive once they work their way back. As an insurance policy, they've brought in Ty Wigginton, who can play all over the field. They also brought back Jim Thome, which I don't really understand, since all he is is a left-handed pinch hitter. But even with Utley and Howard out, that lineup featuring Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, etc., is more than equipped to hold its own. John Mayberry's nowhere near the hitter Raul Ibanez is, but he'll probably give them better defense in left field, which is good, since the Phillies are all about pitching. The Big Three--Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels--all made the All-Star team last year, but Halladay was outpitched by Chris Carpenter in Game 5 of the Division Series, sending the incredibly-favored Phillies home earlier than they expected. Roy Oswalt's a free agent and still hasn't signed with anybody, but the Phillies apparently don't have any interest in bringing him back. They're filling out the rotation with Vance Worley and Joe Blanton. Closer Ryan Madson went to the Reds as a free agent. Their new closer is former Red Sok Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon held his own in the pressure-cooker of the AL East, but he also blew the season finale in Baltimore to keep the Red Sox out of the playoffs last season. For the money they're paying him, Papelbon better produce in Philadelphia.
Lineup* (when all starters are healthy): Jimmy Rollins-SS, Placido Polanco-3B, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Hunter Pence-RF, Shane Victorino-CF, John Mayberry-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C
Rotation: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Joe Blanton
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 94-68
2. Miami Marlins-The Florida Marlins tried to be good a grand total of twice in their 19-year history. They won the World Series both times. Now the only franchise with more World Series titles than division titles (none), as well as the only one to never lose a playoff series, has been reborn as the "Miami" Marlins. And, at least at first glance, they've given every indication that they're in it for the long haul. No club was more active in free agency, signing Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, and making a colossal offer to Albert Pujols. Albert, of course, went to the Angels instead, but the Marlins still look like they'll be a contender for one of the wild card berths, it not their first NL East title, this season. Adding those free agents to a quality corps that was already there, starting with Hanley Ramirez, but also featuring Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison and Giancarlo (I guess that's what we're calling him now) Stanton, could actually make the Marlins worth watching this season. Bringing in Buehrle, who's reunited with Ozzie Guillen, his manager with the White Sox, gives Miami's rotation some depth behind ace Josh Johnson. Johnson's a legitimate star, but he's been killed by not having any real help over the past couple seasons. Carlos Zambrano is crazy, but if Ozzie can keep him in check, he could be a quality third starter for this Marlins club. Anibal Sanchez is still there, too, and being a No. 4 starter instead of a No. 2 starter should make him a better pitcher. I don't even know who the Marlins closer was last season. That tells you how much Heath Bell has improved their bullpen. The Marlins actually spent some money this offseason. They're definitely a team to keep an eye one. Plus, they've got that pretty new ballpark, which isn't a gigantic football stadium with orange seats and teal walls. And they've got Ozzie Guillen.
Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Emilio Bonifacio-CF, Hanley Ramirez-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Gaby Sanchez-1B, Logan Morrison-LF, John Buck-C, Omar Infante-2B
Rotation: Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco
Closer: Heath Bell
Projected Record: 91-71 (2nd Wild Card)
3. Atlanta Braves-The Braves can thank the dysfunctional Red Sox for the nation as a whole forgetting that they also had a pretty massive September collapse last season. If not for the Braves choking down the stretch, the Cardinals aren't the defending World Series Champions. Atlanta's problems last September stemmed mostly from Fredi Gonzalez overusing his bullpen studs Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel during the first five months of the season. Expect him to have learned from that mistake. The top three of the Braves' starting rotation--Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson--is among the best in the National League. Those three especially need to give Atlanta innings so that Fredi doesn't have to go to Venters adn Kimbrel every night. Brian McCann is probably the best offensive catcher in the game (sorry Buster), and Michael Bourn is one of the best center fielder/leadoff hitters out there. Dan Uggla rebounded from a horrible start to put up respectable numbers by year's end in 2011 (that hitting streak certainly helped), but he needs to be more consistent. I'm still a believer in Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, too. If nothing else, they'll be the cornerstones of the Braves' lineup in the future. The Braves' future doesn't include future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. Chipper announced last week that he'll retire at the end of the season, then promptly got injured. Two years ago, the Braves sent Bobby Cox out with a playoff appearance. Chipper deserves a similar sendoff. If everything comes together the way it can, that's certainly possible.
Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Martin Prado-LF, Chipper Jones-3B, Brian McCann-C, Dan Uggla-2B, Jason Heyward-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Tyler Pastornicky-SS (Prado moves to third and Matt Diaz plays left while Chipper's out)
Rotation: Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 90-72
4. Washington Nationals-They're still a year or two away, but the Washington Nationals are going to be a much improved ball club this season. They might even flirt with .500. Locking up their best player, Ryan Zimmerman, to a long-term deal was a smart move. Constructing a lineup around Zimmerman is a much better plan than building one around Jayson Werth. The signing of Adam LaRoche moves Michael Morse to left field. Morse wouldn't be good defensively in either place, but it's worth it to put his bat in left field and LaRoche's glove at first. It'll be a bouns if LaRoche can provide some offense, too. I really like the middle of that infield with Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa. I don't know if you've heard of this Strasburg guy who pitches for the Nationals, but he's pretty good. And Strasburg's just one of six quality starters on the Nationals roster. They picked up Gio Gonzalez from Oakland and added themselves to the list of teams Edwin Jackson has played for. Jackson seems the most likely candidate to move to the bullpen (or trade at midseason), but this pitching depth is impressive. John Lannan, who's been the nominal "ace" of the staff for the last couple years, is probably penciled in as the No. 4 guy behind Jordan Zimmermann. And two-time 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang is the No. 5 starter. The official closer is Drew Storen, but they've also got Brad Lidge (who got the last out of the Phillies' World Series victory in 2008) and former Pirates closer Tom Gorzelanny in the bullpen, as well. Set-up guy Tyler Clippard was their All-Star last season, and he actually got the win in the All-Star Game despite allowing a single to the only batter he faced.
Lineup: Ian Desmond-SS, Danny Espinosa-2B, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Michael Morse-LF, Jayson Werth-RF, Adam LaRoche-1B, Wilson Ramos-C, Roger Bernadina-CF
Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 82-80
5. New York Mets-In honor of their 50th anniversary, the 2012 Mets are going to attempt to match the 1962 Mets' Major League-record 120 losses. OK, it won't be that bad, but the poor Mets have very little hope of being good this season. I think everybody accepts that fact, including those involved with the Mets organization. It's not their fault. The circumstances have a lot to do with it. But the Mets know that 2012 won't be their year. Moving in the fences at Citi Field so that it's more National League park than national park should help David Wright and Jason Bay immensely. (Therein lies the problem with building a pitcher's park that takes away the strengths of your two best hitters.) If Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy can return healthy, they don't have a bad nucleus, but I'm hard pressed to name any other players on the Mets. They lost Jose Reyes as a free agent. Everybody knew that was going to happen. That's why I don't understand trading their most complete all-around player, Angel Pagan, to the Giants for Andres Torres. I'm also confused why they think Lucas Duda's good enough to be an everyday Major League right fielder (I love his name, though). Johan Santana claims he'll be ready to pitch on Opening Day. I'll believe it when I see it. They also need to move Mike Pelfrey back in the rotation if they expect to get any sort of numbers out of him. Pelfrey's not good enough to go against No. 1 and 2 starters every night. The rest of the rotation consists of Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee. Need I say more? Frank Francisco is evidently the closer. This team's not going to be good. However, Mets fans can look forward to all of the 50th anniversary events this season. And they can look forward to not seeing a speck of black on those uniforms.
Lineup: Andres Torres-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Ike Davis-1B, Jason Bay-LF, Lucas Duda-RF, Josh Thole-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Rotation: Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee
Closer: Frank Francisco
Projected Record: 76-86
The race that has potential to be the best one is in the NL East. The Phillies have been the class of this division for the last five years, but that could easily change this year. With their new name, new logo and new ballpark, the Marlisn have a new attitude. They're actually going to try to be competitive. The Braves had the wild card won last year until their September collapse, and they've got their nucleus back. And I think the Nationals are going to be much better. Poor Mets.
1. Philadelphia Phillies-Even though the rest of the division has closed the gap, the Phillies still have the most talented team in the NL East. The injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley obviously aren't good, but if the Phillies can tread water with both of them out of the lineup, I can easily see them taking off if Howard and Utley stay healthy and productive once they work their way back. As an insurance policy, they've brought in Ty Wigginton, who can play all over the field. They also brought back Jim Thome, which I don't really understand, since all he is is a left-handed pinch hitter. But even with Utley and Howard out, that lineup featuring Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, etc., is more than equipped to hold its own. John Mayberry's nowhere near the hitter Raul Ibanez is, but he'll probably give them better defense in left field, which is good, since the Phillies are all about pitching. The Big Three--Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels--all made the All-Star team last year, but Halladay was outpitched by Chris Carpenter in Game 5 of the Division Series, sending the incredibly-favored Phillies home earlier than they expected. Roy Oswalt's a free agent and still hasn't signed with anybody, but the Phillies apparently don't have any interest in bringing him back. They're filling out the rotation with Vance Worley and Joe Blanton. Closer Ryan Madson went to the Reds as a free agent. Their new closer is former Red Sok Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon held his own in the pressure-cooker of the AL East, but he also blew the season finale in Baltimore to keep the Red Sox out of the playoffs last season. For the money they're paying him, Papelbon better produce in Philadelphia.
Lineup* (when all starters are healthy): Jimmy Rollins-SS, Placido Polanco-3B, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Hunter Pence-RF, Shane Victorino-CF, John Mayberry-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C
Rotation: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Joe Blanton
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 94-68
2. Miami Marlins-The Florida Marlins tried to be good a grand total of twice in their 19-year history. They won the World Series both times. Now the only franchise with more World Series titles than division titles (none), as well as the only one to never lose a playoff series, has been reborn as the "Miami" Marlins. And, at least at first glance, they've given every indication that they're in it for the long haul. No club was more active in free agency, signing Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, and making a colossal offer to Albert Pujols. Albert, of course, went to the Angels instead, but the Marlins still look like they'll be a contender for one of the wild card berths, it not their first NL East title, this season. Adding those free agents to a quality corps that was already there, starting with Hanley Ramirez, but also featuring Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison and Giancarlo (I guess that's what we're calling him now) Stanton, could actually make the Marlins worth watching this season. Bringing in Buehrle, who's reunited with Ozzie Guillen, his manager with the White Sox, gives Miami's rotation some depth behind ace Josh Johnson. Johnson's a legitimate star, but he's been killed by not having any real help over the past couple seasons. Carlos Zambrano is crazy, but if Ozzie can keep him in check, he could be a quality third starter for this Marlins club. Anibal Sanchez is still there, too, and being a No. 4 starter instead of a No. 2 starter should make him a better pitcher. I don't even know who the Marlins closer was last season. That tells you how much Heath Bell has improved their bullpen. The Marlins actually spent some money this offseason. They're definitely a team to keep an eye one. Plus, they've got that pretty new ballpark, which isn't a gigantic football stadium with orange seats and teal walls. And they've got Ozzie Guillen.
Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Emilio Bonifacio-CF, Hanley Ramirez-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Gaby Sanchez-1B, Logan Morrison-LF, John Buck-C, Omar Infante-2B
Rotation: Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco
Closer: Heath Bell
Projected Record: 91-71 (2nd Wild Card)
3. Atlanta Braves-The Braves can thank the dysfunctional Red Sox for the nation as a whole forgetting that they also had a pretty massive September collapse last season. If not for the Braves choking down the stretch, the Cardinals aren't the defending World Series Champions. Atlanta's problems last September stemmed mostly from Fredi Gonzalez overusing his bullpen studs Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel during the first five months of the season. Expect him to have learned from that mistake. The top three of the Braves' starting rotation--Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson--is among the best in the National League. Those three especially need to give Atlanta innings so that Fredi doesn't have to go to Venters adn Kimbrel every night. Brian McCann is probably the best offensive catcher in the game (sorry Buster), and Michael Bourn is one of the best center fielder/leadoff hitters out there. Dan Uggla rebounded from a horrible start to put up respectable numbers by year's end in 2011 (that hitting streak certainly helped), but he needs to be more consistent. I'm still a believer in Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, too. If nothing else, they'll be the cornerstones of the Braves' lineup in the future. The Braves' future doesn't include future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. Chipper announced last week that he'll retire at the end of the season, then promptly got injured. Two years ago, the Braves sent Bobby Cox out with a playoff appearance. Chipper deserves a similar sendoff. If everything comes together the way it can, that's certainly possible.
Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Martin Prado-LF, Chipper Jones-3B, Brian McCann-C, Dan Uggla-2B, Jason Heyward-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Tyler Pastornicky-SS (Prado moves to third and Matt Diaz plays left while Chipper's out)
Rotation: Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 90-72
4. Washington Nationals-They're still a year or two away, but the Washington Nationals are going to be a much improved ball club this season. They might even flirt with .500. Locking up their best player, Ryan Zimmerman, to a long-term deal was a smart move. Constructing a lineup around Zimmerman is a much better plan than building one around Jayson Werth. The signing of Adam LaRoche moves Michael Morse to left field. Morse wouldn't be good defensively in either place, but it's worth it to put his bat in left field and LaRoche's glove at first. It'll be a bouns if LaRoche can provide some offense, too. I really like the middle of that infield with Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa. I don't know if you've heard of this Strasburg guy who pitches for the Nationals, but he's pretty good. And Strasburg's just one of six quality starters on the Nationals roster. They picked up Gio Gonzalez from Oakland and added themselves to the list of teams Edwin Jackson has played for. Jackson seems the most likely candidate to move to the bullpen (or trade at midseason), but this pitching depth is impressive. John Lannan, who's been the nominal "ace" of the staff for the last couple years, is probably penciled in as the No. 4 guy behind Jordan Zimmermann. And two-time 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang is the No. 5 starter. The official closer is Drew Storen, but they've also got Brad Lidge (who got the last out of the Phillies' World Series victory in 2008) and former Pirates closer Tom Gorzelanny in the bullpen, as well. Set-up guy Tyler Clippard was their All-Star last season, and he actually got the win in the All-Star Game despite allowing a single to the only batter he faced.
Lineup: Ian Desmond-SS, Danny Espinosa-2B, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Michael Morse-LF, Jayson Werth-RF, Adam LaRoche-1B, Wilson Ramos-C, Roger Bernadina-CF
Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 82-80
5. New York Mets-In honor of their 50th anniversary, the 2012 Mets are going to attempt to match the 1962 Mets' Major League-record 120 losses. OK, it won't be that bad, but the poor Mets have very little hope of being good this season. I think everybody accepts that fact, including those involved with the Mets organization. It's not their fault. The circumstances have a lot to do with it. But the Mets know that 2012 won't be their year. Moving in the fences at Citi Field so that it's more National League park than national park should help David Wright and Jason Bay immensely. (Therein lies the problem with building a pitcher's park that takes away the strengths of your two best hitters.) If Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy can return healthy, they don't have a bad nucleus, but I'm hard pressed to name any other players on the Mets. They lost Jose Reyes as a free agent. Everybody knew that was going to happen. That's why I don't understand trading their most complete all-around player, Angel Pagan, to the Giants for Andres Torres. I'm also confused why they think Lucas Duda's good enough to be an everyday Major League right fielder (I love his name, though). Johan Santana claims he'll be ready to pitch on Opening Day. I'll believe it when I see it. They also need to move Mike Pelfrey back in the rotation if they expect to get any sort of numbers out of him. Pelfrey's not good enough to go against No. 1 and 2 starters every night. The rest of the rotation consists of Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee. Need I say more? Frank Francisco is evidently the closer. This team's not going to be good. However, Mets fans can look forward to all of the 50th anniversary events this season. And they can look forward to not seeing a speck of black on those uniforms.
Lineup: Andres Torres-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Ike Davis-1B, Jason Bay-LF, Lucas Duda-RF, Josh Thole-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Rotation: Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee
Closer: Frank Francisco
Projected Record: 76-86
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
The Baseball Preview, Part III
Suddenly the balance of power in the American League has shifted cross-country. The Rangers are the two-time defending American League Champions, and the acquisition of a certain slugger has turned the Angels into a legitimate threat for years to come. The Angels and Rangers might be the two best teams in the American League, and they should provide us with what will easily be the best pennant race in baseball. Unlike the last two years, Texas isn't going to run away with the division title. Instead they'll be fighting it out with the Angels all season. They'll probably both be in the playoffs, but one's going to be stuck in the wild card game.
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim-So which one is better? I've got to go with the Los Angeles Angels of Albert Pujols. It's still hard to envision Albert wearing anything other than a Cardinals uniform, but he'll be an Angel for the rest of his career (at least the next 10 years). His addition plus the improved pitching staff makes the Angels, in my eyes, the favorite in the AL West. Having three starting first basemen on your roster would be considered a problem for most teams. But when you get a chance to add the best player in the game, it's really a no-brainer. Besides, it seems unlikely Kendrys Morales will actually manage to stay healthy for an entire season, so trying to find at-bats for both him and Mark Trumbo might not be much of an issue at all. The Angels are incredibly deep. So deep, in fact, that their starting outfield consists of three center fielders, and Bobby Abreu, a very serviceable veteran who can still be productive, is their backup DH. Yeah, they're good. But what I think gives the Angels the edge over the Rangers is their pitching. They already had an established ace in Jered Weaver, then went out and plucked Rangers ace C.J. Wilson away in free agency. That gives Anaheim four former All-Stars in their rotation, Weaver, Wilson, Ervin Santana and Dan Haren. Plus, All-Star closer Jordan Walden is the real deal, and they have really good set-up men in Scott Downs, Kevin Jepsen and Hisanori Takahashi. That pitching staff is one of the deepest in the American League. That's why I give the Angels a slight edge over Texas in the AL West. Albert went to the playoffs seven times in 11 years in St. Louis. There's no reason to believe that his first season in Anaheim will end any differently.
Lineup: Erick Aybar-SS, Howard Kendrick-2B, Albert Pujols-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Torii Hunter-RF, Vernon Wells-LF, Chris Iannetta-C, Alberto Callaspo-3B, Peter Bourjos-CF
Rotation: Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana, Dan Haren, Jerome Williams
Closer: Jordan Walden
Projected Record: 98-64
2. Texas Rangers-It's hard to envision the two-time defending American League champions not even being the favorites in their own division, but that's the case for the 2012 Texas Rangers. Their lineup is still as stacked as ever, but the pitching staff took a hit with the departure of C.J. Wilson. What made that loss even worse was the fact that he signed with the Angels. I'm not saying the Rangers can't go to the World Series for the third straight season. But they need a lot of things to work in their favor in order for it to happen. The main questions concerning the 2012 edition of the Rangers revolve around the pitching staff. They invested a lot of money in Yu Darvish. If he turns into the last high-profile Japanese pitching import (Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka), Texas could be in trouble. Colby Lewis, who also spent some time in Japan, is the most experienced veteran starter the Rangers have, and Ron Washington has already said Lewis will get the ball on Opening Day. Derek Holland's performance in Game 4 of the World Series was a tour de force. Can he pitch like that for an entire regular season? I question moving Neftali Feliz to the rotation, though. He was a dominant closer, and they went to the World Series twice with him saving games. But they've brought in Joe Nathan as the closer, meaning they're committed to this Feliz-to-the-rotation move. Personally, I'd have left Feliz in the bullpen and made Alexi Ogando the fifth starter. Regardless, the Rangers are loaded. They'll be right in the thick of things all season. And with the addition of that extra wild card team, a return to the playoffs seems likely, especially since they get to play 36 games against the A's and Mariners.
Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Elvis Andrus-SS, Josh Hamilton-CF, Michael Young-DH, Adrian Beltre-3B, Nelson Cruz-RF, Mike Napoli-C, David Murphy-LF, Mitch Moreland-1B
Rotation: Colby Lewis, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz
Closer: Joe Nathan
Projected Record: 94-68 (2nd Wild Card)
3. Seattle Mariners-The AL West consists of two premier teams and two really, really bad teams. They open the season with two games in Japan on Wednesday and Thursday, meaning either the Mariners or A's will be in first place at some point this season. I think Seattle is slightly less bad than Oakland. The Mariners' problem over the last couple of years has been their complete inability to hit. That hasn't really changed, but they at least have enough decent pieces to put together something that resembles an actual Major League lineup. Ichiro's still the man, but he's coming off the worst season of his career. I think moving him out of the leadoff spot might've had something to do with that, but Seattle seems content to leave him in the No. 3 hole. Chone Figgins also needs to start resembling the player he was in Anaheim. If those two put up the numbers they're capable of and their incredibly talented future stars (Justin Smoak, Franklin Gutierrez, Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero) show those flashes of brilliance, the Mariners could actually flirt with .500. If not, they'll struggle to score runs once again, making Felix Rodriguez's job even tougher. To an extent, you've got to feel bad for King Felix. He has to feel like he's got to throw a shutout every night just to get a win. Last season he had a partner in crime in Michael Pineda, so, of course, that was taken away from him when Pineda was traded to the Yankees for Montero. They also got Hector Noesi in that trade, who'll finally get the chance to be a regular Major League starter. Another new addition, Kevin Millwood, could take some of the burden off the bullpen by eating up innings if nothing else.
Lineup: Chone Figgins-3B, Dustin Ackley-2B, Ichiro Suzuki-RF, Justin Smoak-1B, Jesus Montero-DH, Franklin Gutierrez-CF, Miguel Olivo-C, Mike Carp-LF, Brendan Ryan-SS
Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Justin Vargas, Hector Noesi, Kevin Millwood, Hisashi Iwakuma
Closer: Brandon League
Projected Record: 75-87
4. Oakland Athletics-In the year "Moneyball" is a big hit at the Oscars, it looks like the script for "Moneyball II" is in the works. Because this A's team is as bad as some of those ones in the mid-90s. They took a big risk by bringing in Manny Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes. If both work out, the A's look brilliant. But the chances of that don't seem too great. Especially since Manny has to sit out the first 50 games because of his failed drug test from last season. As a result, until June, they'll have a guy who's a DH in name only. The fact that they're now the only team that shares its stadium with a football team (not counting the Blue Jays, who share SkyDome with the Toronto Argonauts) doesn't help, either. The A's are trying to get a new stadium, but are in kind of a catch-22 situation. People don't want to come to a crappy football stadium to watch a crappy team play. The sheer size of that place means Oakland has to build around pitching, which was as much a part of their success during the Moneyball years as anything else. The A's had a decent young rotation built around Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, so, of course, they traded both of them during the offseason. Now the rotation is anchored by Brandon McCarthy and Dallas Braden, with Bartolo Colon providing a veteran presence. The back of the bullpen's solid with Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes, but does it really matter? How many save opportunities are there really going to be for this team? At least they won't be the worst team in the AL West when Houston joins the division in 2013.
Lineup: Jemile Weeks-2B, Coco Crisp-LF, Yoenis Cespedes-CF, Brandon Allen-1B, Jonny Gomes-DH, Josh Reddick-RF, Kurt Suzuki-C, Cliff Pennington-SS, Josh Donaldson-3B
Rotation: Brandon McCarthy, Dallas Braden, Bartolo Colon, Tommy Milone, Graham Godfrey
Closer: Grant Balfour
Projected Record: 64-98
So, now that we've gone through all three divisions, here's a breakdown of how I see the American League playoff race shaking out. The Tigers will take advantage of being in the AL Central to earn the No. 1 seed, while the Yankees and Alberts will faceoff in the 2 vs. 3 Division Series. Detroit gets the winner of the wild card game between Tampa Bay and Texas. I've got the Rangers winning the wild card game, then losing to Detroit, while Anaheim beats the Yankees in the other Division Series. The Angels then beat the Tigers for the pennant.
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim-So which one is better? I've got to go with the Los Angeles Angels of Albert Pujols. It's still hard to envision Albert wearing anything other than a Cardinals uniform, but he'll be an Angel for the rest of his career (at least the next 10 years). His addition plus the improved pitching staff makes the Angels, in my eyes, the favorite in the AL West. Having three starting first basemen on your roster would be considered a problem for most teams. But when you get a chance to add the best player in the game, it's really a no-brainer. Besides, it seems unlikely Kendrys Morales will actually manage to stay healthy for an entire season, so trying to find at-bats for both him and Mark Trumbo might not be much of an issue at all. The Angels are incredibly deep. So deep, in fact, that their starting outfield consists of three center fielders, and Bobby Abreu, a very serviceable veteran who can still be productive, is their backup DH. Yeah, they're good. But what I think gives the Angels the edge over the Rangers is their pitching. They already had an established ace in Jered Weaver, then went out and plucked Rangers ace C.J. Wilson away in free agency. That gives Anaheim four former All-Stars in their rotation, Weaver, Wilson, Ervin Santana and Dan Haren. Plus, All-Star closer Jordan Walden is the real deal, and they have really good set-up men in Scott Downs, Kevin Jepsen and Hisanori Takahashi. That pitching staff is one of the deepest in the American League. That's why I give the Angels a slight edge over Texas in the AL West. Albert went to the playoffs seven times in 11 years in St. Louis. There's no reason to believe that his first season in Anaheim will end any differently.
Lineup: Erick Aybar-SS, Howard Kendrick-2B, Albert Pujols-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Torii Hunter-RF, Vernon Wells-LF, Chris Iannetta-C, Alberto Callaspo-3B, Peter Bourjos-CF
Rotation: Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana, Dan Haren, Jerome Williams
Closer: Jordan Walden
Projected Record: 98-64
2. Texas Rangers-It's hard to envision the two-time defending American League champions not even being the favorites in their own division, but that's the case for the 2012 Texas Rangers. Their lineup is still as stacked as ever, but the pitching staff took a hit with the departure of C.J. Wilson. What made that loss even worse was the fact that he signed with the Angels. I'm not saying the Rangers can't go to the World Series for the third straight season. But they need a lot of things to work in their favor in order for it to happen. The main questions concerning the 2012 edition of the Rangers revolve around the pitching staff. They invested a lot of money in Yu Darvish. If he turns into the last high-profile Japanese pitching import (Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka), Texas could be in trouble. Colby Lewis, who also spent some time in Japan, is the most experienced veteran starter the Rangers have, and Ron Washington has already said Lewis will get the ball on Opening Day. Derek Holland's performance in Game 4 of the World Series was a tour de force. Can he pitch like that for an entire regular season? I question moving Neftali Feliz to the rotation, though. He was a dominant closer, and they went to the World Series twice with him saving games. But they've brought in Joe Nathan as the closer, meaning they're committed to this Feliz-to-the-rotation move. Personally, I'd have left Feliz in the bullpen and made Alexi Ogando the fifth starter. Regardless, the Rangers are loaded. They'll be right in the thick of things all season. And with the addition of that extra wild card team, a return to the playoffs seems likely, especially since they get to play 36 games against the A's and Mariners.
Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Elvis Andrus-SS, Josh Hamilton-CF, Michael Young-DH, Adrian Beltre-3B, Nelson Cruz-RF, Mike Napoli-C, David Murphy-LF, Mitch Moreland-1B
Rotation: Colby Lewis, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz
Closer: Joe Nathan
Projected Record: 94-68 (2nd Wild Card)
3. Seattle Mariners-The AL West consists of two premier teams and two really, really bad teams. They open the season with two games in Japan on Wednesday and Thursday, meaning either the Mariners or A's will be in first place at some point this season. I think Seattle is slightly less bad than Oakland. The Mariners' problem over the last couple of years has been their complete inability to hit. That hasn't really changed, but they at least have enough decent pieces to put together something that resembles an actual Major League lineup. Ichiro's still the man, but he's coming off the worst season of his career. I think moving him out of the leadoff spot might've had something to do with that, but Seattle seems content to leave him in the No. 3 hole. Chone Figgins also needs to start resembling the player he was in Anaheim. If those two put up the numbers they're capable of and their incredibly talented future stars (Justin Smoak, Franklin Gutierrez, Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero) show those flashes of brilliance, the Mariners could actually flirt with .500. If not, they'll struggle to score runs once again, making Felix Rodriguez's job even tougher. To an extent, you've got to feel bad for King Felix. He has to feel like he's got to throw a shutout every night just to get a win. Last season he had a partner in crime in Michael Pineda, so, of course, that was taken away from him when Pineda was traded to the Yankees for Montero. They also got Hector Noesi in that trade, who'll finally get the chance to be a regular Major League starter. Another new addition, Kevin Millwood, could take some of the burden off the bullpen by eating up innings if nothing else.
Lineup: Chone Figgins-3B, Dustin Ackley-2B, Ichiro Suzuki-RF, Justin Smoak-1B, Jesus Montero-DH, Franklin Gutierrez-CF, Miguel Olivo-C, Mike Carp-LF, Brendan Ryan-SS
Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Justin Vargas, Hector Noesi, Kevin Millwood, Hisashi Iwakuma
Closer: Brandon League
Projected Record: 75-87
4. Oakland Athletics-In the year "Moneyball" is a big hit at the Oscars, it looks like the script for "Moneyball II" is in the works. Because this A's team is as bad as some of those ones in the mid-90s. They took a big risk by bringing in Manny Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes. If both work out, the A's look brilliant. But the chances of that don't seem too great. Especially since Manny has to sit out the first 50 games because of his failed drug test from last season. As a result, until June, they'll have a guy who's a DH in name only. The fact that they're now the only team that shares its stadium with a football team (not counting the Blue Jays, who share SkyDome with the Toronto Argonauts) doesn't help, either. The A's are trying to get a new stadium, but are in kind of a catch-22 situation. People don't want to come to a crappy football stadium to watch a crappy team play. The sheer size of that place means Oakland has to build around pitching, which was as much a part of their success during the Moneyball years as anything else. The A's had a decent young rotation built around Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, so, of course, they traded both of them during the offseason. Now the rotation is anchored by Brandon McCarthy and Dallas Braden, with Bartolo Colon providing a veteran presence. The back of the bullpen's solid with Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes, but does it really matter? How many save opportunities are there really going to be for this team? At least they won't be the worst team in the AL West when Houston joins the division in 2013.
Lineup: Jemile Weeks-2B, Coco Crisp-LF, Yoenis Cespedes-CF, Brandon Allen-1B, Jonny Gomes-DH, Josh Reddick-RF, Kurt Suzuki-C, Cliff Pennington-SS, Josh Donaldson-3B
Rotation: Brandon McCarthy, Dallas Braden, Bartolo Colon, Tommy Milone, Graham Godfrey
Closer: Grant Balfour
Projected Record: 64-98
So, now that we've gone through all three divisions, here's a breakdown of how I see the American League playoff race shaking out. The Tigers will take advantage of being in the AL Central to earn the No. 1 seed, while the Yankees and Alberts will faceoff in the 2 vs. 3 Division Series. Detroit gets the winner of the wild card game between Tampa Bay and Texas. I've got the Rangers winning the wild card game, then losing to Detroit, while Anaheim beats the Yankees in the other Division Series. The Angels then beat the Tigers for the pennant.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
The Baseball Preview, Part II
Yesterday in Part I of my 2012 baseball preview, I took a look at the AL East. Today it's the AL Central, which is unlike the AL East in so many ways. The AL East features three teams that legitimately feel they have a shot at the division title. In the AL Central, the only questions are: "Who's going to finish second behind the Tigers?" and "How many games will Detroit win the division by?" There's no bigger division favorite entering the 2012 season than the Detroit Tigers, who will run away with the AL Central crown. For the Tigers, the first six months of the season will be a warmup for October. They've only got one thing on their mind, and it isn't winning the AL Central.
1. Detroit Tigers-When you've already got arguably the best team in the American League, then add one of the biggest free agents on the market, I'd say you had a pretty good winter. Victor Martinez gets hurt and is out for the year. No problem. The Tigers went out and got Prince Fielder to replace him, nevermind the fact they already had Miguel Cabrera playing first. Don't worry, Cabrera used to be a third baseman, so he pulled a Kevin Youkilis and moved across the diamond, giving the Tigers lineup a 3-4 that isn't even fair to whoever they're playing. And next year, you add Martinez to that and make it the best 3-4-5 in the game. What exactly are the flaws you can find with this team? Austin Jackson strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter? If that's all you can find, you know Jim Leyland's got a pretty good team. Carlos Guillen retired, but he's been hurt so much over the past three seasons that I think most people probably forgot he was on the Tigers anyway. They also let Magglio Ordonez go, which opens up right field for Brennan Boesch or Don Kelly or whoever they want to put out there. I haven't even yet mentioned that Detroit's best player isn't even one of their stud hitters. It's Justin Verlander, who became the first guy in 23 years to win both the Cy Young and MVP awards last season. But their rotation is more than just him, as the Yankees learned in the Division Series last season. And with a fireballer like Jose Valverde closing games, that rotation's not going to have to worry about many blown saves. Last season, the Tigers lost the ALCS to Texas. That won't be acceptable this season. They expect to be playing deep into October this year, and for years to come.
Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Ryan Raburn-2B, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Prince Fielder-1B, Delmon Young-LF, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Brennan Boesch-RF, Alex Avila-C, Brandon Inge-3B
Rotation: Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Andrew Oliver
Closer: Jose Valverde
Projected Record: 103-59
2. Cleveland Indians-The pressing question in the AL Central is who's going to finish second behind the Tigers. I'm giving the slight nod to Cleveland, mainly because I think the Indians actually have the talent to be competitive if they can ever get everybody healthy at the same time. Mainly, they have to make sure at least three of these four guys are in the lineup at the same time: Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner. Want to know how important Shin-Soo Choo is to the Indians? He's the only right fielder listed on the preseason depth chart. Oft-injured Grady Sizemore and left fielder Michael Brantley are also important, but I think the Indians would be better equipped to get around losing one of them than any of those other four. They've brought in Casey Kotchmann, who had a good year with Tampa Bay last year, to play first base. It'll be interesting to see how he does getting the chance to be in the lineup (mostly) every day. The situation involving Fausto Carmona (or whatever his name is) could easily be a distraction that the Indians can ill afford. But outside of "Carmona," the Cleveland rotation is still pretty solid. They've got Justin Masterson, and Ubaldo Jimenez should be more comfortable after getting a chance to get used to the American League over the offseason. Cleveland has also added Derek Lowe to serve as the fifth starter and provide a veteran presence in the locker room. If all goes well and the Indians can avoid serious injuries, Cleveland could contend for a wild card.
Lineup: Grady Sizemore-CF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Carlos Santana-C, Shin-Soo Choo-RF, Travis Hafner-DH, Michael Brantley-LF, Casey Kotchmann-1B, Jason Kipnis-2B, Lonnie Chisenhall-3B
Rotation: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, "Fausto Carmona", Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe
Closer: Chris Perez
Projected Record: 85-77
3. Minnesota Twins-Injuries have also derailed a very talented team in Minnesota. Last season, everything hit rock bottom for the Twins, who actually somehow managed to finish last in this division. Fortunately, Joe Mauer appears to be healthy. That's good, seeing as he's the franchise. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for Justin Morneau. Morneau will be in the Opening Day lineup, but he hasn't been the same since he suffered a concussion in Toronto in July 2010, and I'm not sure he ever will be. But this Twins team has talent virtually everywhere. Danny Valencia and Alexi Casilla are solid on the left side of the infield, and centerfielder Denard Span is one of the most exciting players in baseball. However, they've lost both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Bringing in for A Josh Willingham to replace Cuddyer in right was smart. They're comparable players, so the impact of that loss will be minimal. The Twins don't have that much depth, though, so injuries are something that they really need to avoid. Jason Marquis joins a decent rotation that's anchored by Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Everything hit the fan before the season even started last year when Joe Nathan was lost for the season during Spring Training and they basically had to make things up in the bullpen as they went along. Nathan's gone now, and the closer job has been handed to Matt Capps. Pitching will be Minnesota's Achilles heel.
Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Jamey Carroll-2B, Joe Mauer-C, Justin Morneau-1B, Josh Willingham-RF, Ryan Doumit-DH, Danny Valencia-3B, Ben Revere-LF, Alexi Casilla-SS
Rotation: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Marquis, Nick Blackburn
Closer: Matt Capps
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Kansas City Royals-"Is this the year?" After years of ineptitude and the resulting high draft picks, Royals fans have been patiently waiting for the breakthrough season when all these guys finally get to the majors. They should all be there by the end of the season, so that breakout might come in 2013. There's an outside chance they could challenge for second place in this weak division, but losing Joakim Soria for the year is going to hurt immensely. I'm curious to see how this season's going to turn out in Kansas City. If nothing else, I think the Royals are going to be fun to watch. Eric Hosmer is a beast, Billy Butler is one of the most underrated pure hitters in the game, and Alex Gordon seems to have finally figured out what it takes to be an everyday Major Leaguer. Bruce Chen is a solid No. 1 starter, and Luke Hochevar isn't bad. I like the addition of Jonathan Sanchez. He was expendable for the pitching-heavy Giants, and he won't have to worry about getting pulled from the rotation after one bad start anymore. However, he's never pitched in the American League before, and Sanchez is now a No. 3 instead of a No. 5. That means he'll have less margin for error going up against better pitchers. But if he can pitch well enough to keep the Royals in games (meaning he keeps his ERA right around 4.00), Sanchez could end up .500. If he does that, the Royals could reasonably think they got a steal. With Soria out, closer duties fall to former Dodger Jonathan Broxton. But the middle relief isn't that good, so they need the starters to go deep enough into games to give Broxton leads to save.
Lineup: Alex Gordon-LF, Yuniesky Betancourt-2B, Billy Butler-DH, Eric Hosmer-1B, Mike Moustakas-3B, Jeff Francoeur-RF, Brayan Pena-C, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Alcides Escobar-SS
Rotation: Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Felipe Paulino, Luis Mendoza
Closer: Jonathan Broxton
Projected Record: 78-84
5. Chicago White Sox-Robin Ventura's got a big task on his hands in his rookie season as White Sox manager. It's going to be a long year on the South Side. There best player used to be Mark Buehrle. He went with Ozzie Guillen to Miami. Now the rotation is anchored by Jake Peavy, who was dominant when he was in San Diego, but has never gotten the knack of pitching in the American League. If the Peavy of old suddenly emerges, the White Sox might be OK, but I don't think that's going to happen. In that case, John Danks and Gavin Floyd will really have to pick up the slack. Matt Thornton was an All-Star as a setup guy a few years ago, but now he's the closer. If he struggles, Jesse Crain can step in. One word describes the White Sox lineup: OLD! A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko were both in their prime when the White Sox won the World Series. That was seven years ago. Alex Rios must've forgotten to bring his game through customs when he went from the Blue Jays to the White Sox at midseason a couple years ago. And do I really need to talk about Adam Dunn? The guy was a DH stuck in the National League for so long, finally gets a chance to play in the American League, and has the lowest qualifying batting average in baseball while striking out basically every other at-bat. I think it should be illegal to include the word "hitter" in the position of a guy who contributed 42 RBIs and a whopping .277 slugging percentage (not batting average, slugging percentage) last season. Part of the blame for that falls on Ozzie Guillen for keeping him in the lineup all season, but I think we can all agree Adam Dunn needs to actually contribute something to the White Sox other than strikeouts.
Lineup: Alejandro De Aza-CF, Gordon Beckham-2B, Paul Konerko-1B, Adam Dunn-DH, Alex Rios-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Kosuke Fukudome-RF, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Brent Morel-3B
Rotation: Jake Peavy, Gavin Flod, John Danks, Chris Sale, Phil Humber
Closer: Matt Thornton
Projected Record: 75-87
So, what do you get when you have a really good team playing in a really good division? The Detroit Tigers running away with the AL Central in 2012 the same way the Texas Rangers ran away with the AL West in 2010. That Rangers team went to the World Series. The Tigers don't just want to go to the World Series. They plan on winning it. And they have the talent to do it.
1. Detroit Tigers-When you've already got arguably the best team in the American League, then add one of the biggest free agents on the market, I'd say you had a pretty good winter. Victor Martinez gets hurt and is out for the year. No problem. The Tigers went out and got Prince Fielder to replace him, nevermind the fact they already had Miguel Cabrera playing first. Don't worry, Cabrera used to be a third baseman, so he pulled a Kevin Youkilis and moved across the diamond, giving the Tigers lineup a 3-4 that isn't even fair to whoever they're playing. And next year, you add Martinez to that and make it the best 3-4-5 in the game. What exactly are the flaws you can find with this team? Austin Jackson strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter? If that's all you can find, you know Jim Leyland's got a pretty good team. Carlos Guillen retired, but he's been hurt so much over the past three seasons that I think most people probably forgot he was on the Tigers anyway. They also let Magglio Ordonez go, which opens up right field for Brennan Boesch or Don Kelly or whoever they want to put out there. I haven't even yet mentioned that Detroit's best player isn't even one of their stud hitters. It's Justin Verlander, who became the first guy in 23 years to win both the Cy Young and MVP awards last season. But their rotation is more than just him, as the Yankees learned in the Division Series last season. And with a fireballer like Jose Valverde closing games, that rotation's not going to have to worry about many blown saves. Last season, the Tigers lost the ALCS to Texas. That won't be acceptable this season. They expect to be playing deep into October this year, and for years to come.
Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Ryan Raburn-2B, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Prince Fielder-1B, Delmon Young-LF, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Brennan Boesch-RF, Alex Avila-C, Brandon Inge-3B
Rotation: Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Andrew Oliver
Closer: Jose Valverde
Projected Record: 103-59
2. Cleveland Indians-The pressing question in the AL Central is who's going to finish second behind the Tigers. I'm giving the slight nod to Cleveland, mainly because I think the Indians actually have the talent to be competitive if they can ever get everybody healthy at the same time. Mainly, they have to make sure at least three of these four guys are in the lineup at the same time: Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner. Want to know how important Shin-Soo Choo is to the Indians? He's the only right fielder listed on the preseason depth chart. Oft-injured Grady Sizemore and left fielder Michael Brantley are also important, but I think the Indians would be better equipped to get around losing one of them than any of those other four. They've brought in Casey Kotchmann, who had a good year with Tampa Bay last year, to play first base. It'll be interesting to see how he does getting the chance to be in the lineup (mostly) every day. The situation involving Fausto Carmona (or whatever his name is) could easily be a distraction that the Indians can ill afford. But outside of "Carmona," the Cleveland rotation is still pretty solid. They've got Justin Masterson, and Ubaldo Jimenez should be more comfortable after getting a chance to get used to the American League over the offseason. Cleveland has also added Derek Lowe to serve as the fifth starter and provide a veteran presence in the locker room. If all goes well and the Indians can avoid serious injuries, Cleveland could contend for a wild card.
Lineup: Grady Sizemore-CF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Carlos Santana-C, Shin-Soo Choo-RF, Travis Hafner-DH, Michael Brantley-LF, Casey Kotchmann-1B, Jason Kipnis-2B, Lonnie Chisenhall-3B
Rotation: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, "Fausto Carmona", Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe
Closer: Chris Perez
Projected Record: 85-77
3. Minnesota Twins-Injuries have also derailed a very talented team in Minnesota. Last season, everything hit rock bottom for the Twins, who actually somehow managed to finish last in this division. Fortunately, Joe Mauer appears to be healthy. That's good, seeing as he's the franchise. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for Justin Morneau. Morneau will be in the Opening Day lineup, but he hasn't been the same since he suffered a concussion in Toronto in July 2010, and I'm not sure he ever will be. But this Twins team has talent virtually everywhere. Danny Valencia and Alexi Casilla are solid on the left side of the infield, and centerfielder Denard Span is one of the most exciting players in baseball. However, they've lost both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Bringing in for A Josh Willingham to replace Cuddyer in right was smart. They're comparable players, so the impact of that loss will be minimal. The Twins don't have that much depth, though, so injuries are something that they really need to avoid. Jason Marquis joins a decent rotation that's anchored by Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Everything hit the fan before the season even started last year when Joe Nathan was lost for the season during Spring Training and they basically had to make things up in the bullpen as they went along. Nathan's gone now, and the closer job has been handed to Matt Capps. Pitching will be Minnesota's Achilles heel.
Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Jamey Carroll-2B, Joe Mauer-C, Justin Morneau-1B, Josh Willingham-RF, Ryan Doumit-DH, Danny Valencia-3B, Ben Revere-LF, Alexi Casilla-SS
Rotation: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Marquis, Nick Blackburn
Closer: Matt Capps
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Kansas City Royals-"Is this the year?" After years of ineptitude and the resulting high draft picks, Royals fans have been patiently waiting for the breakthrough season when all these guys finally get to the majors. They should all be there by the end of the season, so that breakout might come in 2013. There's an outside chance they could challenge for second place in this weak division, but losing Joakim Soria for the year is going to hurt immensely. I'm curious to see how this season's going to turn out in Kansas City. If nothing else, I think the Royals are going to be fun to watch. Eric Hosmer is a beast, Billy Butler is one of the most underrated pure hitters in the game, and Alex Gordon seems to have finally figured out what it takes to be an everyday Major Leaguer. Bruce Chen is a solid No. 1 starter, and Luke Hochevar isn't bad. I like the addition of Jonathan Sanchez. He was expendable for the pitching-heavy Giants, and he won't have to worry about getting pulled from the rotation after one bad start anymore. However, he's never pitched in the American League before, and Sanchez is now a No. 3 instead of a No. 5. That means he'll have less margin for error going up against better pitchers. But if he can pitch well enough to keep the Royals in games (meaning he keeps his ERA right around 4.00), Sanchez could end up .500. If he does that, the Royals could reasonably think they got a steal. With Soria out, closer duties fall to former Dodger Jonathan Broxton. But the middle relief isn't that good, so they need the starters to go deep enough into games to give Broxton leads to save.
Lineup: Alex Gordon-LF, Yuniesky Betancourt-2B, Billy Butler-DH, Eric Hosmer-1B, Mike Moustakas-3B, Jeff Francoeur-RF, Brayan Pena-C, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Alcides Escobar-SS
Rotation: Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Felipe Paulino, Luis Mendoza
Closer: Jonathan Broxton
Projected Record: 78-84
5. Chicago White Sox-Robin Ventura's got a big task on his hands in his rookie season as White Sox manager. It's going to be a long year on the South Side. There best player used to be Mark Buehrle. He went with Ozzie Guillen to Miami. Now the rotation is anchored by Jake Peavy, who was dominant when he was in San Diego, but has never gotten the knack of pitching in the American League. If the Peavy of old suddenly emerges, the White Sox might be OK, but I don't think that's going to happen. In that case, John Danks and Gavin Floyd will really have to pick up the slack. Matt Thornton was an All-Star as a setup guy a few years ago, but now he's the closer. If he struggles, Jesse Crain can step in. One word describes the White Sox lineup: OLD! A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko were both in their prime when the White Sox won the World Series. That was seven years ago. Alex Rios must've forgotten to bring his game through customs when he went from the Blue Jays to the White Sox at midseason a couple years ago. And do I really need to talk about Adam Dunn? The guy was a DH stuck in the National League for so long, finally gets a chance to play in the American League, and has the lowest qualifying batting average in baseball while striking out basically every other at-bat. I think it should be illegal to include the word "hitter" in the position of a guy who contributed 42 RBIs and a whopping .277 slugging percentage (not batting average, slugging percentage) last season. Part of the blame for that falls on Ozzie Guillen for keeping him in the lineup all season, but I think we can all agree Adam Dunn needs to actually contribute something to the White Sox other than strikeouts.
Lineup: Alejandro De Aza-CF, Gordon Beckham-2B, Paul Konerko-1B, Adam Dunn-DH, Alex Rios-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Kosuke Fukudome-RF, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Brent Morel-3B
Rotation: Jake Peavy, Gavin Flod, John Danks, Chris Sale, Phil Humber
Closer: Matt Thornton
Projected Record: 75-87
So, what do you get when you have a really good team playing in a really good division? The Detroit Tigers running away with the AL Central in 2012 the same way the Texas Rangers ran away with the AL West in 2010. That Rangers team went to the World Series. The Tigers don't just want to go to the World Series. They plan on winning it. And they have the talent to do it.
Friday, March 23, 2012
The Baseball Preview, Part I
Drumroll please. Fans, we've arrived at the moment you've all been eagerly anticipating at least since the Cardinals sipped champagne while wearing ugly t-shirts in Octobor. It's time for Part I of the 2012 baseball preview! Just like last year, we're dividing it into six parts, looking at each division individually. And we'll start with the division I know best--the AL East.
I think the Red Sox's collapse last season had a lot to do with the ridiculous addition of an unnecessary second wild card team in each league. The only potentially good element of that is the added emphasis on winning your division that now exists. That's especially important in the AL East, which usually contributes the "first" wild card. They've also changed it so that the Yankees and Rays or Yankees and Red Sox can play in the Division Series. That's going to make this division race very interesting. Especially since the Yankees and Red Sox end the season with three at the Stadium.
1. New York Yankees-Even with all the changes everyone else has made, I think this is the Yankees' division to lose. Their big problem last year was a lack of starting pitching behind CC Sabathia (even though they went with six starters for the last two months of the season). Well, within a span of about an hour in December, that problem was solved. Jesus Montero (who I was never really sold on), the supposed starting DH this season, was shipped to Seattle for fireballer Michael Pineda on the same day the Yankees acquired Hiroki Kuroda. Oh yeah, Andy Pettitte announced last week that he's coming back, too. They were even able to afford to exile A.J. Burnett to Pittsburgh. I'm not sure how this seven starter thing is going to work out, but it's better to have too much pitching than not enough. After Jorge Posada retired, it was just assumed that Montero would be the DH this season. Once he was traded for Pineda, the plan became DH-by-committee, using the position to give the regulars a quasi-day off while still keeping their bat in the lineup. So much for that plan. The Yankees went out and got Raul Ibanez, who can also play the outfield, to DH against righties. That takes away a bench spot from somebody like Chris Dickerson (a useful fifth outfielder), but when you've got Raul Ibanez hitting seventh, you've got a pretty good lineup. Hitting's never been the Yankees' problem, though. This year, they should have more pitching than just CC bridging the gap to that insane trio of Rafael Soriano, David Robertson and Mariano at the end.
Lineup: Derek Jeter-SS, Curtis Granderson-CF, Robinson Cano-2B, Alex Rodriguez-3B, Mark Teixeira-1B, Nick Swisher-RF, Raul Ibanez-DH, Russell Martin-C, Brett Gardner-LF
Rotation: CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, Freddy Garcia
Closer: Mariano Rivera
Projected Record: 100-62
2. Tampa Bay Rays-The Rays used that ridiculous September run to make the playoffs on the last day last season, and I still think they're the second-best team in the AL East. The reason why is pitching. David Price and James Shields are studs. Jeremy Hellickson was the Rookie of the Year last season, and Matt Moore, who started (and won) Game 1 of the ALDS against the Rangers out of necessity, will be in the rotation full-time this year. The lineup is, obviously, anchored by Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton. Matt Joyce came into his own last year, as well, and he even made the All-Star team. Joyce shouldn't have to worry about sharing time in right. Leave him there and put Ben Zobrist at second. There's no need to play Zobrist at six different positions anymore. Tampa Bay's best lineup features Zobrist at second. Desmond Jennings appears to be ready for the majors, and he's penciled in as the Opening Day left fielder. If he can give them production out of the leadoff spot, it'll be like Carl Crawford never left. They've also brought Luke Scott in from Baltimore to DH. It'll be interesting to see how Scott does in a different environment. The Orioles tried him in the outfield last year, and that didn't work, so a return to DH shoud suit him. And Carlos Pena's back after one miserable season with the Cubs. Pena was a star during his first tour of duty with the Rays, but he was really bad in Chicago. If the Carlos Pena of old returns to Tampa Bay, that's another dangerous bat in the middle of the Rays' lineup.
Lineup: Desmond Jennings-LF, B.J. Upton-CF, Evan Longoria-3B, Carlos Pena-1B, Matt Joyce-RF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Luke Scott-DH, Jose Molina-C, Sean Rodriguez-SS
Rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth
Projected Record: 95-67 (1st Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox-The complete debaucle that was last September led to a complete overhaul in Beantown. Terry Franconca's out, Bobby Valentine's. Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek? Both retired. Bobby V brings a completely different culture to the clubhouse. Starting pitching was a big part of the problem last September. It didn't really come as a surprise to hear about what the Red Sox starters were doing on the days they weren't pitching. Well, that's not going to happen anymore. And those guys are going to be under the most scrutiny from a notoriously tough fan base. They didn't really do much to enhance that rotation during the offseason, either. And I'm not sure about moving Daniel Bard from the bullpen into the rotation. Closer Jonathan Papelbon went to the Phillies as a free agent, and they replaced him with Andrew Bailey, who isn't as good. Boston's obviously going to hit. There's no question about that. But Carl Crawford needs to live up to his contract. I also don't get the Marco Scutaro trade. They got rid of their starting shortstop and replaced him with that wonderful tag team of Mike Aviles and Nick Punto. I'm also curious to see how right fielder Cody Ross will do switching leagues. But, in fairness, J.D. Drew didn't really give the Red Sox much, so it's not like Ross will need to do a lot. They're the third-best team in this division, and they'll have to settle for fighting it out with the Rangers for the second wild card. That final three-game series at Yankee Stadium could determine whether they make the playoffs or not.
Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, David Ortiz-DH, Carl Crawford-LF, Cody Ross-RF, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Nick Punto-SS
Rotation: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Closer: Andrew Bailey
Projected Record: 92-70
4. Toronto Blue Jays-The BLUE Jays got new uniforms! The black and whatever that gray/silver color was are gone! No team is helped by the addition of the second wild card more than Toronto, but competing in the AL East is always going to be tough. I at least give the Blue Jays credit for trying. However, they need to prove that they're more than a one-man team. And the incredibly overrated Jose Bautista has to develop into more than a one-trick pony. The guys around him are good, but not great. There are some potential future stars in that mix, though, in Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia and Colby Rasmus. If they all hit the way everybody thinks they can, you've got some protection for Bautista that goes beyond Adam Lind and Travis Snyder. Once they stop paying Vernon Wells to play for the Angels, the Blue Jays will have a little more money to spend on veteran free agents. Until then, they need those three guys to produce. Pitching-wise, they've got as solid a 1-2 punch as anybody in Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. The bullpen is much improved with the addition of former Red Francisco Cordero to be the closer. Toronto's going to provide fits for the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but will ultimately end up lingering around .500. But like I said, the Blue Jays can be scary. Good teams won't want to face them.
Lineup: Yunel Escobar-SS, Kelly Johnson-2B, Jose Bautista-RF, Adam Lind-1B, Travis Snyder-DH, Brett Lawrie-3B, Colby Rasmus-CF, J.P. Arencibia-C, Rajai Davis-LF
Rotation: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, Kyle Drabek
Closer: Francisco Cordero
Projected Record: 81-81
5. Baltimore Orioles-The poor Orioles. No matter how good their team looks on paper, they always appear destined to finish fifth in the AL East. And Baltimore's got so many good young players that they'd be a contender in any other division. Now that they've jettisoned Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero and Luke Scott, they've eliminated three high-strikeout veteran guys and opened up those positions for talented younger players. Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters are legitimate rising stars, and Brian Roberts is one of the best leadoff men in the business. Chris Davis is projected to be the Opening Day starter at first base, and he'll provide almost the same number of strikeouts as Mark Reynolds. Reynolds at least makes up for the strikeouts with his power. Davis will need to do something offensively to justify staying in the lineup, though. But the lineup has never been the Orioles' problem. It's always been pitching. And it still is. I think Brian Matusz is better than his 1-9 record last season indicated, and Jake Arrieta ins't bad, either. The title of "ace" on this year's Baltimore staff is evidently going to rookie Wei-Yin Chen. Making a rookie your nominal ace always seems risky, but the Orioles probably figure they've got nothing to lose. They'll give the Big Three some fits and could have a hand in determining which one wins the division. I think 75 wins is an optimistic goal, but also one that's attainable.
Lineup: Brian Roberts-2B, Adam Jones-CF, Nick Markakis-RF, Matt Wieters-C, Mark Reynolds-3B, Nolan Reimold-LF, Wilson Betemit-DH, Chris Davis-1B, J.J. Hardy-SS
Rotation: Wei-Yin Chen, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter, Jason Hammel
Closer: Jim Johnson
Projected Record: 74-88
I think the Red Sox's collapse last season had a lot to do with the ridiculous addition of an unnecessary second wild card team in each league. The only potentially good element of that is the added emphasis on winning your division that now exists. That's especially important in the AL East, which usually contributes the "first" wild card. They've also changed it so that the Yankees and Rays or Yankees and Red Sox can play in the Division Series. That's going to make this division race very interesting. Especially since the Yankees and Red Sox end the season with three at the Stadium.
1. New York Yankees-Even with all the changes everyone else has made, I think this is the Yankees' division to lose. Their big problem last year was a lack of starting pitching behind CC Sabathia (even though they went with six starters for the last two months of the season). Well, within a span of about an hour in December, that problem was solved. Jesus Montero (who I was never really sold on), the supposed starting DH this season, was shipped to Seattle for fireballer Michael Pineda on the same day the Yankees acquired Hiroki Kuroda. Oh yeah, Andy Pettitte announced last week that he's coming back, too. They were even able to afford to exile A.J. Burnett to Pittsburgh. I'm not sure how this seven starter thing is going to work out, but it's better to have too much pitching than not enough. After Jorge Posada retired, it was just assumed that Montero would be the DH this season. Once he was traded for Pineda, the plan became DH-by-committee, using the position to give the regulars a quasi-day off while still keeping their bat in the lineup. So much for that plan. The Yankees went out and got Raul Ibanez, who can also play the outfield, to DH against righties. That takes away a bench spot from somebody like Chris Dickerson (a useful fifth outfielder), but when you've got Raul Ibanez hitting seventh, you've got a pretty good lineup. Hitting's never been the Yankees' problem, though. This year, they should have more pitching than just CC bridging the gap to that insane trio of Rafael Soriano, David Robertson and Mariano at the end.
Lineup: Derek Jeter-SS, Curtis Granderson-CF, Robinson Cano-2B, Alex Rodriguez-3B, Mark Teixeira-1B, Nick Swisher-RF, Raul Ibanez-DH, Russell Martin-C, Brett Gardner-LF
Rotation: CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, Freddy Garcia
Closer: Mariano Rivera
Projected Record: 100-62
2. Tampa Bay Rays-The Rays used that ridiculous September run to make the playoffs on the last day last season, and I still think they're the second-best team in the AL East. The reason why is pitching. David Price and James Shields are studs. Jeremy Hellickson was the Rookie of the Year last season, and Matt Moore, who started (and won) Game 1 of the ALDS against the Rangers out of necessity, will be in the rotation full-time this year. The lineup is, obviously, anchored by Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton. Matt Joyce came into his own last year, as well, and he even made the All-Star team. Joyce shouldn't have to worry about sharing time in right. Leave him there and put Ben Zobrist at second. There's no need to play Zobrist at six different positions anymore. Tampa Bay's best lineup features Zobrist at second. Desmond Jennings appears to be ready for the majors, and he's penciled in as the Opening Day left fielder. If he can give them production out of the leadoff spot, it'll be like Carl Crawford never left. They've also brought Luke Scott in from Baltimore to DH. It'll be interesting to see how Scott does in a different environment. The Orioles tried him in the outfield last year, and that didn't work, so a return to DH shoud suit him. And Carlos Pena's back after one miserable season with the Cubs. Pena was a star during his first tour of duty with the Rays, but he was really bad in Chicago. If the Carlos Pena of old returns to Tampa Bay, that's another dangerous bat in the middle of the Rays' lineup.
Lineup: Desmond Jennings-LF, B.J. Upton-CF, Evan Longoria-3B, Carlos Pena-1B, Matt Joyce-RF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Luke Scott-DH, Jose Molina-C, Sean Rodriguez-SS
Rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth
Projected Record: 95-67 (1st Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox-The complete debaucle that was last September led to a complete overhaul in Beantown. Terry Franconca's out, Bobby Valentine's. Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek? Both retired. Bobby V brings a completely different culture to the clubhouse. Starting pitching was a big part of the problem last September. It didn't really come as a surprise to hear about what the Red Sox starters were doing on the days they weren't pitching. Well, that's not going to happen anymore. And those guys are going to be under the most scrutiny from a notoriously tough fan base. They didn't really do much to enhance that rotation during the offseason, either. And I'm not sure about moving Daniel Bard from the bullpen into the rotation. Closer Jonathan Papelbon went to the Phillies as a free agent, and they replaced him with Andrew Bailey, who isn't as good. Boston's obviously going to hit. There's no question about that. But Carl Crawford needs to live up to his contract. I also don't get the Marco Scutaro trade. They got rid of their starting shortstop and replaced him with that wonderful tag team of Mike Aviles and Nick Punto. I'm also curious to see how right fielder Cody Ross will do switching leagues. But, in fairness, J.D. Drew didn't really give the Red Sox much, so it's not like Ross will need to do a lot. They're the third-best team in this division, and they'll have to settle for fighting it out with the Rangers for the second wild card. That final three-game series at Yankee Stadium could determine whether they make the playoffs or not.
Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, David Ortiz-DH, Carl Crawford-LF, Cody Ross-RF, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Nick Punto-SS
Rotation: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Closer: Andrew Bailey
Projected Record: 92-70
4. Toronto Blue Jays-The BLUE Jays got new uniforms! The black and whatever that gray/silver color was are gone! No team is helped by the addition of the second wild card more than Toronto, but competing in the AL East is always going to be tough. I at least give the Blue Jays credit for trying. However, they need to prove that they're more than a one-man team. And the incredibly overrated Jose Bautista has to develop into more than a one-trick pony. The guys around him are good, but not great. There are some potential future stars in that mix, though, in Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia and Colby Rasmus. If they all hit the way everybody thinks they can, you've got some protection for Bautista that goes beyond Adam Lind and Travis Snyder. Once they stop paying Vernon Wells to play for the Angels, the Blue Jays will have a little more money to spend on veteran free agents. Until then, they need those three guys to produce. Pitching-wise, they've got as solid a 1-2 punch as anybody in Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. The bullpen is much improved with the addition of former Red Francisco Cordero to be the closer. Toronto's going to provide fits for the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but will ultimately end up lingering around .500. But like I said, the Blue Jays can be scary. Good teams won't want to face them.
Lineup: Yunel Escobar-SS, Kelly Johnson-2B, Jose Bautista-RF, Adam Lind-1B, Travis Snyder-DH, Brett Lawrie-3B, Colby Rasmus-CF, J.P. Arencibia-C, Rajai Davis-LF
Rotation: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, Kyle Drabek
Closer: Francisco Cordero
Projected Record: 81-81
5. Baltimore Orioles-The poor Orioles. No matter how good their team looks on paper, they always appear destined to finish fifth in the AL East. And Baltimore's got so many good young players that they'd be a contender in any other division. Now that they've jettisoned Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero and Luke Scott, they've eliminated three high-strikeout veteran guys and opened up those positions for talented younger players. Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters are legitimate rising stars, and Brian Roberts is one of the best leadoff men in the business. Chris Davis is projected to be the Opening Day starter at first base, and he'll provide almost the same number of strikeouts as Mark Reynolds. Reynolds at least makes up for the strikeouts with his power. Davis will need to do something offensively to justify staying in the lineup, though. But the lineup has never been the Orioles' problem. It's always been pitching. And it still is. I think Brian Matusz is better than his 1-9 record last season indicated, and Jake Arrieta ins't bad, either. The title of "ace" on this year's Baltimore staff is evidently going to rookie Wei-Yin Chen. Making a rookie your nominal ace always seems risky, but the Orioles probably figure they've got nothing to lose. They'll give the Big Three some fits and could have a hand in determining which one wins the division. I think 75 wins is an optimistic goal, but also one that's attainable.
Lineup: Brian Roberts-2B, Adam Jones-CF, Nick Markakis-RF, Matt Wieters-C, Mark Reynolds-3B, Nolan Reimold-LF, Wilson Betemit-DH, Chris Davis-1B, J.J. Hardy-SS
Rotation: Wei-Yin Chen, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter, Jason Hammel
Closer: Jim Johnson
Projected Record: 74-88
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
They Deserved It
Turns out "Saints" probably isn't the proper name for the football team from New Orleans. Not after what they did. Their defensive bounty system was completely unacceptable. That's why Roger Goodell dropped the hammer on the franchise today in a way nobody thought he would. Good. They deserved it.
The NFL's foremost concern is player safety. That a team was going out intentionally trying to knock opposing players out of the game is almost unthinkable. The Saints were doing it for three years. They were trying to knock Brett Favre out of the 2010 NFC Championship Game. Everybody knows it. Football's a dangerous game. If you're lucky, you might get 10 years out of the game. Most careers are much shorter than that. And let's not even mention the effects the game has on its players years after they retire. How many games do players miss per season for any variety of injuries? How many guys are knocked out of the game with a concussion every week? To think that Saints players, who knew the risks they were taking with their own health every time they stepped on the field, deliberately went against the game's unwritten code and went out of their way to commit dirty plays is unconscienable. I'd even be willing to bet a number of them knew what they were doing was wrong.
Even still, I didn't expect the hammer to get dropped the way it did. But in a way, it had to. It got the point across. It's like when Pete Rozelle suspended Alex Karras and Paul Hornung each for a year for gambling. Gambling had no place in the game then. Rozelle made sure everybody else got that. Likewise, bounties have no place in the NFL, either. Point made. Hopefully, point taken.
I haven't liked Gregg Williams since he was head coach of the Bills and for some reason thought Rob Johnson was better than Doug Flutie. To hear that he was the mastermind of this bounty program isn't really a surprise. His guys play dirty. Now we know why. He's suspended from the NFL indefintely. Goodell won't even consider discussing reinstatement with him until next April. The hammer fell the hardest on Williams, as it should've. It was his idea, he was the guy running the operation, and he kept it going after he was told to stop. There's no defense for his actions. I have no doubt that Williams will show contrition and will be reinstated at some point in the future. But his ban needs to be longer than the one year it's already going to be. Michael Vick was suspended indefinitely the entire time he was in prison. He missed two seasons. That works for me.
Sean Payton's one-year ban is certainly the most surprising. Nobody expected him to be suspended without pay for an entire year. But, he's the head coach, and this happened under his watch. Thus, he's ultimately the one responsible for the bounty program. And it's not like Payton is completely without fault here. Ignorance would still be unacceptable, but it would at least be slightly more defensable. The fact that Payton knew about the program, supported it, and even contributed to the pot, makes him just as responsible as everybody else involved. If not more so. The head coach is supposed to be the one making sure stuff like this doesn't happen. Sean Payton gets that now.
Losing Payton turns the Saints from a Super Bowl contender to a team that'll struggle to make the playoffs. The man who probably would've taken over coaching duties in his absence, Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt, can't. Not for the first six games of the season, at least. Vitt was also suspended for his role in the bounty program. So was general manager Mickey Loomis, who received an eight-game suspension. Like Payton, Loomis knew about the bounty system and didn't stop it. He admitted as much, and acknowledged that it was his fault. It doesn't change the fact that Loomis was just as deserving of a suspension as everybody else. Eight games seems right.
I also agree that Saints owner Tom Benson didn't deserve any direct discipline himself. Yes, as the owner, he's ultimately responsible for anything that happens with his franchise, but you also can't expect him to know everything that goes on. He left the football matters to his coaches. When Benson found out about the bounty program and how much he knew are the important questions here. If he'd known earlier, would he have been able to stop it? Probably. If that's not the case, I'll have to rethink my stance on whether or not Benson deserves a suspension himself, but I still think it's the right call. The franchise was fined and lost draft picks. But more importantly, the Saits have essentially lost the chance to become the first team to play in a Super Bowl that they're hosting. That's more than enough of a punishment for Tom Benson.
The fallout from the Saints' bounty scandal likely isn't over, either. We still don't know what the penalties for the players involved will be. Expect some suspensions there, as well. If Goodell can regularly single out guys like James Harrison and Ndamukong Suh for specific hits, it sends the wrong message if none of the Saints players are suspended. What they did was much worse. And it was encouraged by their teammates! Jonathan Vilma was the ringleader among the players. In my opinion, he's just as responsible as all of the coaches who were suspended today. Vilma deserves a significant ban. At least six games. I'd vote for more. Half a season.
What the Saints did is unacceptable in every regard. They weren't just breaking unwritten rules. They were brazenly spitting in the face of official NFL rules. The fact that they knew it and didn't care (and lied to the NFL about it!) only made it worse. That's what makes today's ruling so significant. That sort of behavior will not be tolerated. It never should've happened in the first place.
The NFL's foremost concern is player safety. That a team was going out intentionally trying to knock opposing players out of the game is almost unthinkable. The Saints were doing it for three years. They were trying to knock Brett Favre out of the 2010 NFC Championship Game. Everybody knows it. Football's a dangerous game. If you're lucky, you might get 10 years out of the game. Most careers are much shorter than that. And let's not even mention the effects the game has on its players years after they retire. How many games do players miss per season for any variety of injuries? How many guys are knocked out of the game with a concussion every week? To think that Saints players, who knew the risks they were taking with their own health every time they stepped on the field, deliberately went against the game's unwritten code and went out of their way to commit dirty plays is unconscienable. I'd even be willing to bet a number of them knew what they were doing was wrong.
Even still, I didn't expect the hammer to get dropped the way it did. But in a way, it had to. It got the point across. It's like when Pete Rozelle suspended Alex Karras and Paul Hornung each for a year for gambling. Gambling had no place in the game then. Rozelle made sure everybody else got that. Likewise, bounties have no place in the NFL, either. Point made. Hopefully, point taken.
I haven't liked Gregg Williams since he was head coach of the Bills and for some reason thought Rob Johnson was better than Doug Flutie. To hear that he was the mastermind of this bounty program isn't really a surprise. His guys play dirty. Now we know why. He's suspended from the NFL indefintely. Goodell won't even consider discussing reinstatement with him until next April. The hammer fell the hardest on Williams, as it should've. It was his idea, he was the guy running the operation, and he kept it going after he was told to stop. There's no defense for his actions. I have no doubt that Williams will show contrition and will be reinstated at some point in the future. But his ban needs to be longer than the one year it's already going to be. Michael Vick was suspended indefinitely the entire time he was in prison. He missed two seasons. That works for me.
Sean Payton's one-year ban is certainly the most surprising. Nobody expected him to be suspended without pay for an entire year. But, he's the head coach, and this happened under his watch. Thus, he's ultimately the one responsible for the bounty program. And it's not like Payton is completely without fault here. Ignorance would still be unacceptable, but it would at least be slightly more defensable. The fact that Payton knew about the program, supported it, and even contributed to the pot, makes him just as responsible as everybody else involved. If not more so. The head coach is supposed to be the one making sure stuff like this doesn't happen. Sean Payton gets that now.
Losing Payton turns the Saints from a Super Bowl contender to a team that'll struggle to make the playoffs. The man who probably would've taken over coaching duties in his absence, Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt, can't. Not for the first six games of the season, at least. Vitt was also suspended for his role in the bounty program. So was general manager Mickey Loomis, who received an eight-game suspension. Like Payton, Loomis knew about the bounty system and didn't stop it. He admitted as much, and acknowledged that it was his fault. It doesn't change the fact that Loomis was just as deserving of a suspension as everybody else. Eight games seems right.
I also agree that Saints owner Tom Benson didn't deserve any direct discipline himself. Yes, as the owner, he's ultimately responsible for anything that happens with his franchise, but you also can't expect him to know everything that goes on. He left the football matters to his coaches. When Benson found out about the bounty program and how much he knew are the important questions here. If he'd known earlier, would he have been able to stop it? Probably. If that's not the case, I'll have to rethink my stance on whether or not Benson deserves a suspension himself, but I still think it's the right call. The franchise was fined and lost draft picks. But more importantly, the Saits have essentially lost the chance to become the first team to play in a Super Bowl that they're hosting. That's more than enough of a punishment for Tom Benson.
The fallout from the Saints' bounty scandal likely isn't over, either. We still don't know what the penalties for the players involved will be. Expect some suspensions there, as well. If Goodell can regularly single out guys like James Harrison and Ndamukong Suh for specific hits, it sends the wrong message if none of the Saints players are suspended. What they did was much worse. And it was encouraged by their teammates! Jonathan Vilma was the ringleader among the players. In my opinion, he's just as responsible as all of the coaches who were suspended today. Vilma deserves a significant ban. At least six games. I'd vote for more. Half a season.
What the Saints did is unacceptable in every regard. They weren't just breaking unwritten rules. They were brazenly spitting in the face of official NFL rules. The fact that they knew it and didn't care (and lied to the NFL about it!) only made it worse. That's what makes today's ruling so significant. That sort of behavior will not be tolerated. It never should've happened in the first place.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Lots Of New Logos
Evidently I'm a Denver Broncos fan now. At least I know and can come to terms with it. But we're not talking about Peyton today. Nope. Instead, we're swinging into baseball mode. Our annual six-part baseball preview is coming up soon. But before that, I want to take a look at some of the new logos we're going to see this season. There seems to be a lot of them. Evidently, some teams paid attention to the uniform rankings I posted last January. Others have anniversary logos (like the Red Sox' Fenway Park patch). Some are good changes (the Blue Jays were reminded what color is in their name), while I'm not a fan of some (the Astros), and indifferent to others. First, let's take a look at the new logos we're going to see:
Toronto Blue Jays: Finally! Somebody told the BLUE Jays that they should stop wearing uniforms with primary colors of black and gray. I love it when teams change their uniforms three or four times in a 15-year period, only to eventually go back to their logo from the '80s. The Blue Jays didn't do that exactly, but they might as well have. If you're going to redesign your uniform, this is the way to do it. The maple leaf seems oddly placed on the blue jay's head (I guess they had to remind people that they play in Canada), but that's nitpicking. This logo is a winner. And it's made even better because of how bad the other one was.
Miami Marlins: We all knew the Marlins were going to do something with their logo to go along with the name change, new ballpark and virtually complete rebranding (not to mention the decision to try to be competitive). I'm one of the few people who actually liked the old logo, so I'm still lukewarm on the new one. I don't like the yellow, it's too much orange, and is that orange and blue thing on top of the M supposed to be a marlin? Plus, the logo's way too big on the hats. There are about 15 different versions of the jersey, one of which is orange and incredibly ugly. I can't say I've formed an opinion one way or the other on these, but I'm leaning more towards not liking them.
New York Mets: After the incredibly horrible Citi Field Inaugural Season logo in 2009, the Mets made the apple come out of the top hat with their 50th anniversary logo. There is nothing to criticize here. It's beautiful. When you have a logo as simple and classic as the Mets have, you don't need to go overboard on anniversaries. They didn't. This is as elegant an anniversary logo as I've ever seen. The Mets also get a ton of bonus points for finally ditching the black uniforms! Your colors are blue and orange. Thank you for realizing that.
Houston Astros: ...And then we have the Astros' 50th anniversary logo. This is what not to do. The Astros, of course, have been Exhibit A in what not to do uniform-wise for most of their history, so this hideous anniversary logo shouldn't really come as a surprise. It looks like they tried to take elements of every ugly logo/uniform they've ever had and combine them into one. Rumor has it, they also wanted to bring back their original Colt .45 uniforms, but people weren't really too keen on the guns, making it a no-go. They're supposedly changing the logo (and potentially the name) when they switch leagues next year. Anything they come up with will have to be better, right?
Boston Red Sox: Fenway Park is old, huh? Like the Mets, the Red Sox got the concept of keep it simple. When you do that, what you get is something elegant that will look beautiful on a uniform sleeve. Fenway's such an iconic ballpark that it deserves a beautiful logo. The Red Sox succeeded in giving it one. This is the model that the Cubs need to use when developing the logo for Wrigley's 100th anniversary in two years.
Kansas City Royals: In case you were wondering, this is what the All-Star Game logo looks like. The Royals are hosting it for the first time since 1973, so, like all All-Star hosts, they'll have the logo on their sleeve. The inspiration is the Kauffman Stadium scoreboard, which is shaped like the Royals' logo. I've gotta say, I kinda like the All-Star Game logo. It's very regal. Which is good when the home team's name is the "Royals." I'm a fan of the gold crown, and the blue banners look like they're hanging out a window and down the side of a castle. Bonus points for using baseball bats as the rods holding the banners up. Evidently the Royals are making minor tweaks to their uniforms, as well, but they're not significant enough to comment on.
Baltimore Orioles: Finally, we've got the Orioles, who resurrected the cartoon bird that last adorned their hats in 1988. They started 0-22 that season and replaced this dude with the (as Michael Kay says) "ornithologically correct" oriole on a black hat. That's still the main logo, but this guy's back on the home hats, which will have white front and black back. That look is very '80s. It didn't need to be resurrected. This guy's cute, but he didn't need to be resurrected, either. I'm not sure if the Orioles got bored or what, but they didn't need a change. But a version of this logo was on their hats during the glory days of the late '60s and early '70s, and you can't really fault them for bringing back a piece of their history. I'm not a fan for now, but I'll see them often enough that they'll probably grow on me.
So...the breakdown. Good: Blue Jays, Mets, Red Sox, Royals. Bad: Marlins, Astros. Not sure: Orioles.
Toronto Blue Jays: Finally! Somebody told the BLUE Jays that they should stop wearing uniforms with primary colors of black and gray. I love it when teams change their uniforms three or four times in a 15-year period, only to eventually go back to their logo from the '80s. The Blue Jays didn't do that exactly, but they might as well have. If you're going to redesign your uniform, this is the way to do it. The maple leaf seems oddly placed on the blue jay's head (I guess they had to remind people that they play in Canada), but that's nitpicking. This logo is a winner. And it's made even better because of how bad the other one was.
Miami Marlins: We all knew the Marlins were going to do something with their logo to go along with the name change, new ballpark and virtually complete rebranding (not to mention the decision to try to be competitive). I'm one of the few people who actually liked the old logo, so I'm still lukewarm on the new one. I don't like the yellow, it's too much orange, and is that orange and blue thing on top of the M supposed to be a marlin? Plus, the logo's way too big on the hats. There are about 15 different versions of the jersey, one of which is orange and incredibly ugly. I can't say I've formed an opinion one way or the other on these, but I'm leaning more towards not liking them.
Houston Astros: ...And then we have the Astros' 50th anniversary logo. This is what not to do. The Astros, of course, have been Exhibit A in what not to do uniform-wise for most of their history, so this hideous anniversary logo shouldn't really come as a surprise. It looks like they tried to take elements of every ugly logo/uniform they've ever had and combine them into one. Rumor has it, they also wanted to bring back their original Colt .45 uniforms, but people weren't really too keen on the guns, making it a no-go. They're supposedly changing the logo (and potentially the name) when they switch leagues next year. Anything they come up with will have to be better, right?
Boston Red Sox: Fenway Park is old, huh? Like the Mets, the Red Sox got the concept of keep it simple. When you do that, what you get is something elegant that will look beautiful on a uniform sleeve. Fenway's such an iconic ballpark that it deserves a beautiful logo. The Red Sox succeeded in giving it one. This is the model that the Cubs need to use when developing the logo for Wrigley's 100th anniversary in two years.
Kansas City Royals: In case you were wondering, this is what the All-Star Game logo looks like. The Royals are hosting it for the first time since 1973, so, like all All-Star hosts, they'll have the logo on their sleeve. The inspiration is the Kauffman Stadium scoreboard, which is shaped like the Royals' logo. I've gotta say, I kinda like the All-Star Game logo. It's very regal. Which is good when the home team's name is the "Royals." I'm a fan of the gold crown, and the blue banners look like they're hanging out a window and down the side of a castle. Bonus points for using baseball bats as the rods holding the banners up. Evidently the Royals are making minor tweaks to their uniforms, as well, but they're not significant enough to comment on.
Baltimore Orioles: Finally, we've got the Orioles, who resurrected the cartoon bird that last adorned their hats in 1988. They started 0-22 that season and replaced this dude with the (as Michael Kay says) "ornithologically correct" oriole on a black hat. That's still the main logo, but this guy's back on the home hats, which will have white front and black back. That look is very '80s. It didn't need to be resurrected. This guy's cute, but he didn't need to be resurrected, either. I'm not sure if the Orioles got bored or what, but they didn't need a change. But a version of this logo was on their hats during the glory days of the late '60s and early '70s, and you can't really fault them for bringing back a piece of their history. I'm not a fan for now, but I'll see them often enough that they'll probably grow on me.
So...the breakdown. Good: Blue Jays, Mets, Red Sox, Royals. Bad: Marlins, Astros. Not sure: Orioles.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Women's Bracket Breakdown
As obvious as the top eight teams in the men's tournament were, the four No. 1 seeds on the women's side were even more obvious. It really tells you something that in a "down" year, UConn still has a 29-4 record and enters the Tournament as a 1-seed. Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn and Stanford are so clearly better than everybody else that it wouldn't surprise anybody to see all four of them in Denver. But common sense dictates that won't be the case.
While there are usually far fewer upsets on the women's side, it's still unlikely that all four 1-seeds will make their way to the Final Four. It's just a matter of which one is going to lose, to who, and when. Undefeated Baylor is far and away the best team in the country. The Bears are 34-0. Who cares? If they don't win the title (and set an NCAA record with 40 wins in a season), this season will qualify as a colossal disappointment. After not even making the Final Four last season, Baylor's been a team on a mission all year. They're the prohibitive favorites to get it done, and, frankly, it would be shocking if they don't. But, like the Kentucky men, Baylor's national title isn't guaranteed. So how's the Tournament going to play out? Let's take a look:
Des Moines-I give the NCAA credit for not completely screwing Baylor with the 2-seed in its region this year. They drew Tennessee, which I'd like as a potential Final Four team out of another region. But Baylor's the team coming out of Des Moines (have I mentioned how stupid it is that the women's regionals are named by city?). There isn't a team in this bracket that can scare them. A second-round game with Ohio State in Ohio could be relatively close, but still won't be a problem. The fact that the second-round game between Georgetown and Georgia Tech will make that game a lot closer than it would've been otherwise. (Interesting that they didn't put Duke on North Carolina's home floor.) Even though the Yellow Jackets are the 4-seed, I think Georgetown's a better team and will advance. Delaware was justly rewarded for its fine season with a 3-seed, but has to play a road game in the first round! Gee, thanks. Upset alert with that matchup against Arkansas-Little Rock. Elena Delle Donne and the Blue Hens survive, but it'll be close. Former Big 12 rivals Nebraska and Kansas square off in the 6-11 game, which Nebraska should win easily after reaching the B1G championship game. As I said, I'd like second-seeded Tennessee to potentially get to the Final Four out of any other region, but against Baylor, it ain't happening.
Fresno-I was a little surprised that Stanford was only rated No. 4 overall, but the overall strength of the Big East is probably what propelled Notre Dame and UConn over the Cardinal. This is where I think we might see our 1-seed go down, with very good Duke, St. John's and Purdue teams also in this region. Having to travel to Norfolk, Virginia, for the first two rounds won't help Stanford, either. They'll get out of that, but it might have an effect in Fresno. Purdue, meanwhile, gets to play at home in the first two rounds. The B1G champs could definitely pull the upset in the Sweet 16. In fact, let's go with that on the bracket. Purdue beats Stanford to get to the Fresno Regional final. St. John's has to go on the road to play Oklahoma in the second round. The Red Storm are a better team, but I'm not sure they're good enough to win a true road game against a quality Oklahoma squad. Second-seeded Duke also has to go on the road and play Vanderbilt. But the difference here is that Durham is a lot closer to Nashville than New York is to Norman. And Duke is significantly better than Vanderbilt. Enough to win on the road and set up a matchup with Oklahoma. I'm tempted to take Purdue in the regional final, but I think Duke is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they haven't been to the Final Four in six years! That changes in 2012. The Blue Devils go to Denver.
Raleigh-Interesting that Duke wasn't put in the Raleigh Region, either. But Maryland is the ACC champs, which is probably what earned the Terps the right to play their regional at NC State. It's probably Notre Dame's Final Four berth to lose here. That's a definite possibility, though. We've got a potential National Championship Game rematch between Notre Dame and Texas A&M, and Maryland is scary for a team like Notre Dame. I still think Notre Dame is better than Maryland, but they probably would've preferred having Kentucky or Duke (even in Raleigh) as their 2-seed. Fifth-seeded St. Bonaventure is dangerous. That first round matchup between the Bonnies and Florida Gulf Coast will certainly be fun to watch. I don't think the winner gets by Georgia, though. The fact that Notre Dame, Maryland and Texas A&M are all playing at home for the first two rounds should eliminate any element of suspense from any of those sites. I'm looking forward to that Texas A&M-Maryland game. Believe it or not, I think Texas A&M winning that would actually be better for Notre Dame. I don't think it happens, though. Maryland is good enough to be a Final Four team. Notre Dame will have to be at its best to beat them. I think the Irish do that in a close one.
Kingston-Even though UConn doesn't have an official home game in this year's Tournament, the Huskies' pre-Final Four travel will consist of about eight minutes per round. If UConn doesn't reach the Final Four after playing in Bridgeport, then Kingston, it'll be the surprise of the Tournament. The other three first-round sites consist of a lower-seeded team playing at home. That could make for some unexpected teams joining the Huskies in Rhode Island. LSU is the 5-seed and playing at home. That'll be enough to knock of fourth-seeded Penn State. Gonzaga made it all the way to the Elite Eight as an 11-seed last season (and played its regional in Spokane). Well, the Zags are home for the first two rounds again this year. They'll pull the upset (on paper, at least) against Rutgers, but aren't getting by Miami. Green Bay is just as good as Delaware, but got screwed by the committee with its seed once again. The Phoenix are a 7-seed, and have to go on the road to play Iowa State in the first round. Green Bay's wonderful season is going to end just like that. I even think Iowa State might have enough in the tank to beat Kentucky. I like Miami to get to the regional final, but nobody here's beating UConn.
Final Four: So, there you go. I'm not taking all the 1-seeds. But I'm not venturing too far out on that limb, either. I just think those four teams are so much better than everybody else. They're like Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray. (Stanford's Andy Murray in this scenario. You know they're not going to win, but you still just want them to.) I've thought Baylor and Notre Dame were the Djokovic and Nadal all season, but Notre Dame would be playing UConn for the fourth time this season in the Final Four, and the Huskies won the last meeting in the Big East Championship Game. Plus, they'll be out for revenge after losing to Notre Dame in the Final Four last season. Those two are so even that the littlest thing will be the difference. But, to keep the tennis analogy going, I'm going with Notre Dame in five. Duke's my fun little party-crasher, but is also no match for Baylor. That's a team with a singular focus.
That gives us Baylor and Notre Dame, the two best teams in the nation all year, playing for the championship. They were the preseason No. 1 and 2 teams, and they played each other as such back in November in the final of the Preseason WNIT. It would also put the two biggest names in women's basketball--Brittany Griner and Skylar Diggins on the sport's biggest stage. Notre Dame's the only team in the country that can hang with Baylor for 40 minutes. But when you get a team as good as Baylor playing with one goal in mind, even the second-best team is no match for them. 40-0. National Champions. The Baylor Bears.
While there are usually far fewer upsets on the women's side, it's still unlikely that all four 1-seeds will make their way to the Final Four. It's just a matter of which one is going to lose, to who, and when. Undefeated Baylor is far and away the best team in the country. The Bears are 34-0. Who cares? If they don't win the title (and set an NCAA record with 40 wins in a season), this season will qualify as a colossal disappointment. After not even making the Final Four last season, Baylor's been a team on a mission all year. They're the prohibitive favorites to get it done, and, frankly, it would be shocking if they don't. But, like the Kentucky men, Baylor's national title isn't guaranteed. So how's the Tournament going to play out? Let's take a look:
Des Moines-I give the NCAA credit for not completely screwing Baylor with the 2-seed in its region this year. They drew Tennessee, which I'd like as a potential Final Four team out of another region. But Baylor's the team coming out of Des Moines (have I mentioned how stupid it is that the women's regionals are named by city?). There isn't a team in this bracket that can scare them. A second-round game with Ohio State in Ohio could be relatively close, but still won't be a problem. The fact that the second-round game between Georgetown and Georgia Tech will make that game a lot closer than it would've been otherwise. (Interesting that they didn't put Duke on North Carolina's home floor.) Even though the Yellow Jackets are the 4-seed, I think Georgetown's a better team and will advance. Delaware was justly rewarded for its fine season with a 3-seed, but has to play a road game in the first round! Gee, thanks. Upset alert with that matchup against Arkansas-Little Rock. Elena Delle Donne and the Blue Hens survive, but it'll be close. Former Big 12 rivals Nebraska and Kansas square off in the 6-11 game, which Nebraska should win easily after reaching the B1G championship game. As I said, I'd like second-seeded Tennessee to potentially get to the Final Four out of any other region, but against Baylor, it ain't happening.
Fresno-I was a little surprised that Stanford was only rated No. 4 overall, but the overall strength of the Big East is probably what propelled Notre Dame and UConn over the Cardinal. This is where I think we might see our 1-seed go down, with very good Duke, St. John's and Purdue teams also in this region. Having to travel to Norfolk, Virginia, for the first two rounds won't help Stanford, either. They'll get out of that, but it might have an effect in Fresno. Purdue, meanwhile, gets to play at home in the first two rounds. The B1G champs could definitely pull the upset in the Sweet 16. In fact, let's go with that on the bracket. Purdue beats Stanford to get to the Fresno Regional final. St. John's has to go on the road to play Oklahoma in the second round. The Red Storm are a better team, but I'm not sure they're good enough to win a true road game against a quality Oklahoma squad. Second-seeded Duke also has to go on the road and play Vanderbilt. But the difference here is that Durham is a lot closer to Nashville than New York is to Norman. And Duke is significantly better than Vanderbilt. Enough to win on the road and set up a matchup with Oklahoma. I'm tempted to take Purdue in the regional final, but I think Duke is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they haven't been to the Final Four in six years! That changes in 2012. The Blue Devils go to Denver.
Raleigh-Interesting that Duke wasn't put in the Raleigh Region, either. But Maryland is the ACC champs, which is probably what earned the Terps the right to play their regional at NC State. It's probably Notre Dame's Final Four berth to lose here. That's a definite possibility, though. We've got a potential National Championship Game rematch between Notre Dame and Texas A&M, and Maryland is scary for a team like Notre Dame. I still think Notre Dame is better than Maryland, but they probably would've preferred having Kentucky or Duke (even in Raleigh) as their 2-seed. Fifth-seeded St. Bonaventure is dangerous. That first round matchup between the Bonnies and Florida Gulf Coast will certainly be fun to watch. I don't think the winner gets by Georgia, though. The fact that Notre Dame, Maryland and Texas A&M are all playing at home for the first two rounds should eliminate any element of suspense from any of those sites. I'm looking forward to that Texas A&M-Maryland game. Believe it or not, I think Texas A&M winning that would actually be better for Notre Dame. I don't think it happens, though. Maryland is good enough to be a Final Four team. Notre Dame will have to be at its best to beat them. I think the Irish do that in a close one.
Kingston-Even though UConn doesn't have an official home game in this year's Tournament, the Huskies' pre-Final Four travel will consist of about eight minutes per round. If UConn doesn't reach the Final Four after playing in Bridgeport, then Kingston, it'll be the surprise of the Tournament. The other three first-round sites consist of a lower-seeded team playing at home. That could make for some unexpected teams joining the Huskies in Rhode Island. LSU is the 5-seed and playing at home. That'll be enough to knock of fourth-seeded Penn State. Gonzaga made it all the way to the Elite Eight as an 11-seed last season (and played its regional in Spokane). Well, the Zags are home for the first two rounds again this year. They'll pull the upset (on paper, at least) against Rutgers, but aren't getting by Miami. Green Bay is just as good as Delaware, but got screwed by the committee with its seed once again. The Phoenix are a 7-seed, and have to go on the road to play Iowa State in the first round. Green Bay's wonderful season is going to end just like that. I even think Iowa State might have enough in the tank to beat Kentucky. I like Miami to get to the regional final, but nobody here's beating UConn.
Final Four: So, there you go. I'm not taking all the 1-seeds. But I'm not venturing too far out on that limb, either. I just think those four teams are so much better than everybody else. They're like Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray. (Stanford's Andy Murray in this scenario. You know they're not going to win, but you still just want them to.) I've thought Baylor and Notre Dame were the Djokovic and Nadal all season, but Notre Dame would be playing UConn for the fourth time this season in the Final Four, and the Huskies won the last meeting in the Big East Championship Game. Plus, they'll be out for revenge after losing to Notre Dame in the Final Four last season. Those two are so even that the littlest thing will be the difference. But, to keep the tennis analogy going, I'm going with Notre Dame in five. Duke's my fun little party-crasher, but is also no match for Baylor. That's a team with a singular focus.
That gives us Baylor and Notre Dame, the two best teams in the nation all year, playing for the championship. They were the preseason No. 1 and 2 teams, and they played each other as such back in November in the final of the Preseason WNIT. It would also put the two biggest names in women's basketball--Brittany Griner and Skylar Diggins on the sport's biggest stage. Notre Dame's the only team in the country that can hang with Baylor for 40 minutes. But when you get a team as good as Baylor playing with one goal in mind, even the second-best team is no match for them. 40-0. National Champions. The Baylor Bears.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
What Would 96 Look Like?
Remember three years ago when they were talking about expanding the Tournament to 96 teams? Well, everyone thought that was a terrible idea, so they settled for going to 68. Part of the problem with 96 is that there aren't enough good teams that get left out of the Tournament to justify that many teams. Sure, there are some quality teams that end up in the NIT (Seton Hall, Washington, Drexel to name just a few), but putting them all in the NCAA Tournament would create some really crappy matchups. (Not to mention the fact that the best teams would have to face much tougher opponents than the conference champions that currently get 15- and 16-seeds). How crappy would those matchups be? Well, let's see...
This mock 96-team field was devised using the 68 teams that actually made the Tournament and 28 of the 32 NIT teams. There were 11 regular season conference champions that got automatic bids to the NIT. I put them in the field, along with 17 NIT at-large teams. Fortunately, the NIT seeded everybody, so it was easy to figure out who they ranked as the bottom at-large teams. As for the mock bracket, I stayed as true to the actual bracket as possible at the top and bottom while throwing those extra at-large teams somewhere in the middle (I don't think anyone would disagree that Seton Hall would deserve a higher seed than Norfolk State). As you can see, a lot of these matchups suck:
SOUTH
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Belmont/(17) Dayton
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut/(24) Western Kentucky
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State/(20) Marshall
(5) Wichita State vs. (12) VCU/(21) Akron
(3) Baylor vs. (14) Seton Hall/(19) Central Florida
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado/(22) Lehigh
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier/(23) Long Island
(2) Duke vs. (15) Tennessee/(18) Oral Roberts
WEST
(1) Michigan State vs. (16) Miami/(17) Mississippi
(8) Memphis vs. (9) Saint Louis/(24) Lamar
(4) Louisville vs. (13) BYU/(20) Northwestern
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) California/(21) Bucknell
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Davidson/(19) Massachusetts
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State/(22) Norfolk State
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia/(23) Stony Brook
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Arizona/(18) Middle Tennessee
EAST
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) Mississippi State/(17) Nevada
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Miss/(24) Mississippi Valley State
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Iona/(20) Minnesota
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard/(21) Detroit
(3) Florida State vs. (14) Montana/(19) La Salle
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas/(22) Texas-Arlington
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia/(23) UNC Asheville
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) St. Bonaventure/(18) Oregon
MIDWEST
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) South Dakota State/(17) Drexel
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama/(24)Vermont
(4) Michigan vs. (13) South Florida/(20) Stanford
(5) Temple vs. (12) Long Beach State/(21) Loyola
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Ohio/(19) LSU
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) NC State/(22) Valparaiso
(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Purdue/(23) Savannah State
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Washington/(18) Saint Joseph's
I think we can all agree that a lot of those first round matchups are unappealing. And that some of the second round matchups, as good as they'd be, could lead to some really good teams getting knocked out much earlier than they should. Bottom line, I think this helps prove that 96 isn't a good idea. I've found a way to make my peace with 68. Let's hope it stays there.
This mock 96-team field was devised using the 68 teams that actually made the Tournament and 28 of the 32 NIT teams. There were 11 regular season conference champions that got automatic bids to the NIT. I put them in the field, along with 17 NIT at-large teams. Fortunately, the NIT seeded everybody, so it was easy to figure out who they ranked as the bottom at-large teams. As for the mock bracket, I stayed as true to the actual bracket as possible at the top and bottom while throwing those extra at-large teams somewhere in the middle (I don't think anyone would disagree that Seton Hall would deserve a higher seed than Norfolk State). As you can see, a lot of these matchups suck:
SOUTH
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Belmont/(17) Dayton
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut/(24) Western Kentucky
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State/(20) Marshall
(5) Wichita State vs. (12) VCU/(21) Akron
(3) Baylor vs. (14) Seton Hall/(19) Central Florida
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado/(22) Lehigh
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier/(23) Long Island
(2) Duke vs. (15) Tennessee/(18) Oral Roberts
WEST
(1) Michigan State vs. (16) Miami/(17) Mississippi
(8) Memphis vs. (9) Saint Louis/(24) Lamar
(4) Louisville vs. (13) BYU/(20) Northwestern
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) California/(21) Bucknell
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Davidson/(19) Massachusetts
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State/(22) Norfolk State
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia/(23) Stony Brook
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Arizona/(18) Middle Tennessee
EAST
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) Mississippi State/(17) Nevada
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Miss/(24) Mississippi Valley State
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Iona/(20) Minnesota
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard/(21) Detroit
(3) Florida State vs. (14) Montana/(19) La Salle
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas/(22) Texas-Arlington
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia/(23) UNC Asheville
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) St. Bonaventure/(18) Oregon
MIDWEST
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) South Dakota State/(17) Drexel
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama/(24)Vermont
(4) Michigan vs. (13) South Florida/(20) Stanford
(5) Temple vs. (12) Long Beach State/(21) Loyola
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Ohio/(19) LSU
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) NC State/(22) Valparaiso
(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Purdue/(23) Savannah State
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Washington/(18) Saint Joseph's
I think we can all agree that a lot of those first round matchups are unappealing. And that some of the second round matchups, as good as they'd be, could lead to some really good teams getting knocked out much earlier than they should. Bottom line, I think this helps prove that 96 isn't a good idea. I've found a way to make my peace with 68. Let's hope it stays there.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Men's Bracket Breakdown
I've had a day to mull over the bracket, and there are still a couple things that I can't figure out. Mainly, I'm shocked that Iona got in. Pleasantly surprised, but still shocked. I'm also confused about the committee's contention that Iona wasn't the last team in. If they were the last at-large team on the S-curve, how can you say they weren't the last team in? The fact that Washington wasn't even on the board floors me too. The Huskies were the regular season champ in the Pac-12. I thought that would be enough, but evidently they didn't even come close. They're the first regular season champion from a BCS league EVER to not get an at-large bid.
As for the teams that are actually in the field, I think this year's Tournament is very top-heavy. Kentucky and Syracuse were the consensus top two teams, but there was discussion for the other two 1-seeds, which went (correctly) to North Carolina and Michigan State. The 2-seeds went (correctly) to Kansas, Duke, Ohio State and Missouri. Those are clearly the eight best teams in the country. Other than the slight debate over who deserved that last 1-seed, this might've been the easiest year to figure out the 1 and 2 lines in recent memory.
But each of those teams has its flaws, and as much as it wouldn't surprise me to see any of them in the Final Four, it wouldn't surprise me to see some of them lose early, too. Before I break down the bracket region-by-region, I'm going to make one bold prediction: Butler won't lose the National Championship Game this year. With that pearl of wisdom, on to the breakdown...
SOUTH: Kentucky is the No. 1 overall seed and clearly the best team in the nation entering the Tournament. Unfortunately, being the No. 1 overall seed doesn't get you the easiest road to New Orleans. Three of last year's Final Four teams are in this region. In fact, at least two of them will be gone by the Sweet 16. VCU is a candidate for the 5-12 upset over Wichita State, but I don't see them beating Indiana. Kentucky beats UConn, then gets a rematch with Indiana and a chance to avenge one of their two losses. The bottom half of this bracket is very interesting, though. UNLV will beat Colorado and could easily beat Baylor, and they both could beat Duke. That Notre Dame-Xavier matchup might be the best of the first round (yes, I know it's technically the "second" round now, but I choose to still call it the "first" round). Anyway, whoever wins gives Duke trouble. I think the Blue Devils survive that, but fall to Baylor. And Kentucky knocks off Baylor to get back to the Final Four.
WEST: Michigan State's the only 1-seed that actually won its conference tournament, and that victory over Ohio State in the B1G (how stupid is the new Big Ten logo, by the way?) title game probably clinched the 1-seed for the Spartans. However, as No. 4 overall, Sparty gets shipped to Phoenix. That might not be a bad thing, though. Every time UConn wins the National Championship, they come out of the West Region. The top seeds should have an easy time getting through this bracket. Long Beach State might give New Mexico a game and Colorado State has a chance to upset Murray State, but I don't see any real shockers coming out of the West. With the way Louisville played in winning the Big East Tournament, Michigan State would probably prefer it if the Cardinals lose to either Davidson or the New Mexico-Long Beach State winner, but don't count on that happening. That's a yummy Sweet 16 game. But it certainly seems like Missouri and Michigan State are on a collision course. The Tigers are out to prove something after being denied a 1-seed, but Michigan State's always in the Final Four. I don't see that changing this year.
EAST: Forgive me for not jumping on the Syracuse bandwagon. For some reason, I think the Orange are primed for an upset. This region is somewhat "easy," but I just don't see them getting past the Sweet 16. So who does Syracuse lose to, you ask? I'm gonna say Vanderbilt. The Commodores are full of confidence after beating Kentucky to win their first SEC title in 60 years, and I think that momentum carries over into the NCAA Tournament. Poor Harvard. They're in the Tournament for the first time since 1946 and got the 12-seed they deserved, then got matched with probably the best 5-seed. Anyway, my point here is that I really like Vandy. The team that I really like in the bottom half of the East Region is ACC champion Florida State. The Seminoles really proved something to me when they beat both Duke and North Carolina to win their first ACC title. They completely laid an egg against VCU last year, and they'll be out to atone for that game, as well. A lot of people are probably picking Syracuse-Ohio State as the regional final. But I think both of those teams are too flawed to end up in New Orleans. In fact, I don't think either one even reaches the regional final. I really like the way both Vanderbilt and Florida State are playing right now. In my "upset" region, Florida State beats Vanderbilt in the regional final.
MIDWEST: Things get interesting in the Midwest. If the seeds hold, we've got a dandy of a regional final between North Carolina and Kansas. And you can bet the Tar Heels probably aren't too happy about the prospect of playing the Jayhawks in St. Louis. Kansas wanted a 1-seed (as was made perfectly clear by Bill Self's reaction during the selection show), but I think they'll take a 2-seed and playing in St. Louis over getting shipped to Phoenix. But before they both get there, plenty of obstacles await. Creighton will give North Carolina fits in the second round. That could be this year's Butler-Pitt game. The under-seeded Blue Jays won't win, but they'll definitely keep it close. Whoever wins that Cal-USF game could definitely knock off Temple, and I'm not completely sold on Michigan. Georgetown probably beats a very good San Diego State team, and Kansas is probably hoping Purdue beats Saint Mary's. That's a much better matchup for them. Just like Michigan State-Missouri seems inevitable, I expect us to see North Carolina and Kansas meet with a spot in the Final Four at stake. And that "home court" advantage will be a big factor in a Jayhawks victory.
Final Four/National Championship: So...that gives us a Final Four of Kentucky, Michigan State, Florida State and Kansas. As good as Michigan State is, Kentucky's that much better. John Calipari's one-and-done teams only get one shot at a title each. With the amount of upsets that we get in this tournament every year, it's actually not that common for the No. 1 overall seed to play on Monday night. But I think that loss to Vanderbilt was a good thing for Kentucky. They're not going to take the NCAA Tournament for granted and play in the game that their talent indicates they should be in. As for the other semifinal, Kansas is a better team than Florida State. I think the Seminoles are good. That's why I've got them advancing to the Final Four, but I think Kansas is really good. The Jayhawks were the best team two years ago, when they lost to Northern Iowa in the second round. They were the best team last year, when they lost to VCU in the Elite Eight. This year they're not the best team. But this is also the year when they'll reach the Promised Land. And in the UK vs. KU showdown for the title, it's Calipari's boys from Lexington that end up on top.
As for the teams that are actually in the field, I think this year's Tournament is very top-heavy. Kentucky and Syracuse were the consensus top two teams, but there was discussion for the other two 1-seeds, which went (correctly) to North Carolina and Michigan State. The 2-seeds went (correctly) to Kansas, Duke, Ohio State and Missouri. Those are clearly the eight best teams in the country. Other than the slight debate over who deserved that last 1-seed, this might've been the easiest year to figure out the 1 and 2 lines in recent memory.
But each of those teams has its flaws, and as much as it wouldn't surprise me to see any of them in the Final Four, it wouldn't surprise me to see some of them lose early, too. Before I break down the bracket region-by-region, I'm going to make one bold prediction: Butler won't lose the National Championship Game this year. With that pearl of wisdom, on to the breakdown...
SOUTH: Kentucky is the No. 1 overall seed and clearly the best team in the nation entering the Tournament. Unfortunately, being the No. 1 overall seed doesn't get you the easiest road to New Orleans. Three of last year's Final Four teams are in this region. In fact, at least two of them will be gone by the Sweet 16. VCU is a candidate for the 5-12 upset over Wichita State, but I don't see them beating Indiana. Kentucky beats UConn, then gets a rematch with Indiana and a chance to avenge one of their two losses. The bottom half of this bracket is very interesting, though. UNLV will beat Colorado and could easily beat Baylor, and they both could beat Duke. That Notre Dame-Xavier matchup might be the best of the first round (yes, I know it's technically the "second" round now, but I choose to still call it the "first" round). Anyway, whoever wins gives Duke trouble. I think the Blue Devils survive that, but fall to Baylor. And Kentucky knocks off Baylor to get back to the Final Four.
WEST: Michigan State's the only 1-seed that actually won its conference tournament, and that victory over Ohio State in the B1G (how stupid is the new Big Ten logo, by the way?) title game probably clinched the 1-seed for the Spartans. However, as No. 4 overall, Sparty gets shipped to Phoenix. That might not be a bad thing, though. Every time UConn wins the National Championship, they come out of the West Region. The top seeds should have an easy time getting through this bracket. Long Beach State might give New Mexico a game and Colorado State has a chance to upset Murray State, but I don't see any real shockers coming out of the West. With the way Louisville played in winning the Big East Tournament, Michigan State would probably prefer it if the Cardinals lose to either Davidson or the New Mexico-Long Beach State winner, but don't count on that happening. That's a yummy Sweet 16 game. But it certainly seems like Missouri and Michigan State are on a collision course. The Tigers are out to prove something after being denied a 1-seed, but Michigan State's always in the Final Four. I don't see that changing this year.
EAST: Forgive me for not jumping on the Syracuse bandwagon. For some reason, I think the Orange are primed for an upset. This region is somewhat "easy," but I just don't see them getting past the Sweet 16. So who does Syracuse lose to, you ask? I'm gonna say Vanderbilt. The Commodores are full of confidence after beating Kentucky to win their first SEC title in 60 years, and I think that momentum carries over into the NCAA Tournament. Poor Harvard. They're in the Tournament for the first time since 1946 and got the 12-seed they deserved, then got matched with probably the best 5-seed. Anyway, my point here is that I really like Vandy. The team that I really like in the bottom half of the East Region is ACC champion Florida State. The Seminoles really proved something to me when they beat both Duke and North Carolina to win their first ACC title. They completely laid an egg against VCU last year, and they'll be out to atone for that game, as well. A lot of people are probably picking Syracuse-Ohio State as the regional final. But I think both of those teams are too flawed to end up in New Orleans. In fact, I don't think either one even reaches the regional final. I really like the way both Vanderbilt and Florida State are playing right now. In my "upset" region, Florida State beats Vanderbilt in the regional final.
MIDWEST: Things get interesting in the Midwest. If the seeds hold, we've got a dandy of a regional final between North Carolina and Kansas. And you can bet the Tar Heels probably aren't too happy about the prospect of playing the Jayhawks in St. Louis. Kansas wanted a 1-seed (as was made perfectly clear by Bill Self's reaction during the selection show), but I think they'll take a 2-seed and playing in St. Louis over getting shipped to Phoenix. But before they both get there, plenty of obstacles await. Creighton will give North Carolina fits in the second round. That could be this year's Butler-Pitt game. The under-seeded Blue Jays won't win, but they'll definitely keep it close. Whoever wins that Cal-USF game could definitely knock off Temple, and I'm not completely sold on Michigan. Georgetown probably beats a very good San Diego State team, and Kansas is probably hoping Purdue beats Saint Mary's. That's a much better matchup for them. Just like Michigan State-Missouri seems inevitable, I expect us to see North Carolina and Kansas meet with a spot in the Final Four at stake. And that "home court" advantage will be a big factor in a Jayhawks victory.
Final Four/National Championship: So...that gives us a Final Four of Kentucky, Michigan State, Florida State and Kansas. As good as Michigan State is, Kentucky's that much better. John Calipari's one-and-done teams only get one shot at a title each. With the amount of upsets that we get in this tournament every year, it's actually not that common for the No. 1 overall seed to play on Monday night. But I think that loss to Vanderbilt was a good thing for Kentucky. They're not going to take the NCAA Tournament for granted and play in the game that their talent indicates they should be in. As for the other semifinal, Kansas is a better team than Florida State. I think the Seminoles are good. That's why I've got them advancing to the Final Four, but I think Kansas is really good. The Jayhawks were the best team two years ago, when they lost to Northern Iowa in the second round. They were the best team last year, when they lost to VCU in the Elite Eight. This year they're not the best team. But this is also the year when they'll reach the Promised Land. And in the UK vs. KU showdown for the title, it's Calipari's boys from Lexington that end up on top.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Creating the Bracket
With Selection Sunday tomorrow, the NCAA selection committee is currently hard at work picking teams, seeding them, and making a bracket for the 2012 Tournament. It's certainly not an enviable task. Everybody has their opinion on who should be in, who should be out, who should get what seed, etc. Especially those who AREN'T on the committee.
Last year, the NCAA invited a bunch of media members and conference/school officials to Indianapolis for a mock selection. That group came back with a tremendous amount of insight as to how the bracket is set up. Most significantly, they were given the same tools that the actual committee uses in its difficult task of choosing the teams. For the most part, this mock selection proved more than anything that the committee knows what it's doing (they're the only people who thought VCU belonged in the Tournament last year, and look what happened).
Among the things that the committee takes into consideration are RPI, strength of schedule (which is also one element of the RPI), quality wins, head-to-head results, team sheets (a breakdown of results against teams by RPI), and the national polls. The things that the committee doesn't consider include past tournament appearances, previous tournament results by conference teams, conference RPI or conference affiliation.
I slightly disagree with that last one, though. They can say that conference affiliation isn't taken into account, but, to a certain extent, it has to be. Why else do committee members have to excuse themselves when a conference school is being discussed? (Obviously to prevent a conflict of interest, but I think you see my greater point.) The very fact that they play in a Big East or a Big 12 automatically gives a team like a Seton Hall or a Texas an edge over good mid-majors. Because of the other teams in their conference, Seton Hall and Texas have to play stronger schedules than mid-majors. That's not their fault. It's not something that should be held against mid-major teams, either. I'm just saying that a 25-7 record in the Missouri Valley Conference isn't necessarily better than a 19-13 record in the ACC. Likewise, Washington was the regular season champion in the Pac-12. Do you really see them leaving out the regular season champ in a power conference, regardless of their RPI?
There's obviously no limit on the number of teams from one conference that can make the Tournament in a given year, as evidence by the fact that the Big East got 11 teams in last year and is looking at 10 this year. Conference affiliation also comes into play when placing teams in the bracket. While they don't have a limit on how many teams from a conference can get in, they do have a rule that says the top three teams from a conference all have to be in different regions. (I wish the women had a similar rule.) That guarantees Kansas and Missouri or Duke and North Carolina or Michigan State and Ohio State can't be the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the same region. If a conference is good enough to place two or more teams in the Final Four, more power to it.
They also try to set it up so that teams from the same conference don't play before the Elite Eight. Obviously when the Big East gets 11 teams in the Tournament, that's impossible, but you're not seeing it otherwise. And when you do, the conference is probably going to get a 2-seed and an 11-seed in the same region or something like that, making it unlikely they'll meet.
But that's part of what makes the bubble debate so interesting. The committee starts the process by determining 20-25 teams that should be in the Tournament regardless. Throw in the automatic qualifiers and you're left with about 15-20 teams to fill out the rest of the bracket. There are probably about 30 good teams that could fill those remaining spots, which gives us our "bubble." That's where all of those factors I mentioned earlier come into play. And, again, say that conference affiliation doesn't matter all you want, it's the first thing most people look at, so it has to at least be in the back of their minds.
Creating the NCAA Tournament bracket is a tough job. We all think we can do it, but most of us have never sat in that room determining which 68 of 344 teams will be playing for a National Championship. It has to be nerve-racking. As much as we all think we can do it and would love it, I'm not sure we could all handle that stress. Being a member of the NCAA selection committee has to be one of the most thankless jobs in sports. And have I mentioned yet that none of these people get paid for doing it?
Last year, the NCAA invited a bunch of media members and conference/school officials to Indianapolis for a mock selection. That group came back with a tremendous amount of insight as to how the bracket is set up. Most significantly, they were given the same tools that the actual committee uses in its difficult task of choosing the teams. For the most part, this mock selection proved more than anything that the committee knows what it's doing (they're the only people who thought VCU belonged in the Tournament last year, and look what happened).
Among the things that the committee takes into consideration are RPI, strength of schedule (which is also one element of the RPI), quality wins, head-to-head results, team sheets (a breakdown of results against teams by RPI), and the national polls. The things that the committee doesn't consider include past tournament appearances, previous tournament results by conference teams, conference RPI or conference affiliation.
I slightly disagree with that last one, though. They can say that conference affiliation isn't taken into account, but, to a certain extent, it has to be. Why else do committee members have to excuse themselves when a conference school is being discussed? (Obviously to prevent a conflict of interest, but I think you see my greater point.) The very fact that they play in a Big East or a Big 12 automatically gives a team like a Seton Hall or a Texas an edge over good mid-majors. Because of the other teams in their conference, Seton Hall and Texas have to play stronger schedules than mid-majors. That's not their fault. It's not something that should be held against mid-major teams, either. I'm just saying that a 25-7 record in the Missouri Valley Conference isn't necessarily better than a 19-13 record in the ACC. Likewise, Washington was the regular season champion in the Pac-12. Do you really see them leaving out the regular season champ in a power conference, regardless of their RPI?
There's obviously no limit on the number of teams from one conference that can make the Tournament in a given year, as evidence by the fact that the Big East got 11 teams in last year and is looking at 10 this year. Conference affiliation also comes into play when placing teams in the bracket. While they don't have a limit on how many teams from a conference can get in, they do have a rule that says the top three teams from a conference all have to be in different regions. (I wish the women had a similar rule.) That guarantees Kansas and Missouri or Duke and North Carolina or Michigan State and Ohio State can't be the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the same region. If a conference is good enough to place two or more teams in the Final Four, more power to it.
They also try to set it up so that teams from the same conference don't play before the Elite Eight. Obviously when the Big East gets 11 teams in the Tournament, that's impossible, but you're not seeing it otherwise. And when you do, the conference is probably going to get a 2-seed and an 11-seed in the same region or something like that, making it unlikely they'll meet.
But that's part of what makes the bubble debate so interesting. The committee starts the process by determining 20-25 teams that should be in the Tournament regardless. Throw in the automatic qualifiers and you're left with about 15-20 teams to fill out the rest of the bracket. There are probably about 30 good teams that could fill those remaining spots, which gives us our "bubble." That's where all of those factors I mentioned earlier come into play. And, again, say that conference affiliation doesn't matter all you want, it's the first thing most people look at, so it has to at least be in the back of their minds.
Creating the NCAA Tournament bracket is a tough job. We all think we can do it, but most of us have never sat in that room determining which 68 of 344 teams will be playing for a National Championship. It has to be nerve-racking. As much as we all think we can do it and would love it, I'm not sure we could all handle that stress. Being a member of the NCAA selection committee has to be one of the most thankless jobs in sports. And have I mentioned yet that none of these people get paid for doing it?
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