NFL Picks, Week 11

Things are starting to become clearer in the NFL, but, at the same time, the playoff picture is murkier than ever.  Some teams have started separating themselves, but, for the most part, we've got divisions that are tightly bunched with playoff positions changing each week.  It'll only get crazier with so many division games backloaded, too.  And with certain teams that currently aren't in playoff spots lurking.  So, expect a lot to happen the rest of the way.

Thursday Night: New England (Win)

Commanders (3-7) vs. Dolphins (3-7): Washington-The curtain falls on the International Series with the NFL's first-ever game in Madrid.  This looked like a much better matchup before the season than it turned out to be.  Miami shockingly took it to the Bills last week, while Washington has lost five straight and is still without Jayden Daniels.  None of those games have been particularly close.  But those opponents have been a much higher caliber than the Dolphins.  That's why I'm taking the Commanders to end their skid.

Panthers (5-5) at Falcons (3-6): Carolina-Atlanta is right up there on the list of most disappointing teams in the league this season.  People, myself included, figured the Falcons would challenge Tampa Bay for the division title.  Instead, they're 3-6, and they didn't even get a bye following their long trip back from Germany.  They've been far too inconsistent to think the team that beat the Bills will show up on a regular basis.  The Panthers, meanwhile, can find themselves just a half-game out of first place if things fall their way this week.

Buccaneers (6-3) at Bills (6-3): Buffalo-Tampa Bay wasn't given the easiest schedule coming out of its bye.  The Bucs lost to New England last week.  Now they've got Buffalo.  And next week, the Rams.  They could easily lose all three, so it's a good thing they were able to beef up early.  The Bills laid an egg last week in Miami, which really put them in a bad spot since the Patriots don't stop winning.  New England already won this week, so a loss will put them 2.5 games back.  Not insurmountable, but not where they want to be either.  Being a game and a half out is much more manageable.

Texans (4-5) at Titans (1-8): Houston-During their bye week, the Titans saw every other one-win team come away with a victory.  So, they're back in the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick.  That's obviously a fluid situation that might change several times over the rest of the season, but the point remains.  Tennessee's not a good team.  And, to think, this team fired Mike Vrabel, only to see him become a Coach of the Year candidates while making the Patriots "the Patriots" again.  Needless to say, his coaching might not have been the problem.

Bears (6-3) at Vikings (4-5): Chicago-Chicago is a playoff team right now.  It sounds crazy, I know, but the Bears are 6-3 and could be in first place at the end of Week 11.  That could be 7-2 if not for one quarter of their season opener, which was the only good quarter the Vikings played in their first two games.  The Bears are a much different team in mid-November than they were in early September, though.  Last week's comeback against the Giants is proof of that.  Count this team out at your own peril.

Packers (5-3-1) at Giants (2-8): Green Bay-One little loss can have so much impact.  Especially in a tight division race.  The Packers went from first place in the NFC North to third after falling to the Eagles on Monday night.  The good news is this week, they're playing a Giants team that finally got fed up with the blown double-digit leads and fired Brian Daboll.  It's not like that'll make much of a difference against the Packers, though.  (Although, their two wins this season were at home against the Chargers and Eagles, so who knows?)

Bengals (3-6) at Steelers (5-4): Pittsburgh-When these two met in Cincinnati on a Thursday night, the Bengals pulled the upset (while wearing those ridiculous white helmets).  That loss dropped the Steelers to 4-2 and suddenly they were no longer running away with the division.  They're still in front, but it's no longer comfortable.  A win in the rematch can go a long way towards changing that and set Pittsburgh up for the stretch run.

Chargers (7-3) at Jaguars (5-4): Chargers-Don't sleep on either of these teams.  Jacksonville has beaten both San Francisco and Kansas City on the road this season, while the Chargers have really been impressive.  Sure, two of their losses are bad, but they always show up and play well against good opponents (as evidence by their 3-0 division record).  And they just took it to the Steelers last week.  I'm not saying this one will be easy, but I do expect them to go into their bye at 8-3.

Seahawks (7-2) at Rams (7-2): Rams-As this little NFC West round robin concludes, we'll actually have a division leader with sole possession of first place.  Not only that, the Seahawks-Rams winner will likely hold the NFC's No. 1 seed at the end of the week.  Personally, I think the Rams are the best team in the division, if not the entire NFC.  They showed it with an absolutely dominant performance in San Francisco, and they'll show it again at home against Seattle.

49ers (6-4) at Cardinals (3-6): San Francisco-Heading into the season, some people thought Arizona might make the NFC West a four-way race.  That obviously hasn't been the case, with the Cardinals sitting at just 3-6.  One of the reasons for that is an 0-3 division record.  When these two met in San Francisco, it was a one-point game.  I wouldn't be surprised if it's close again.  I'd expect the final result to be the same, though.

Ravens (4-5) at Browns (2-7): Baltimore-For weeks, people have been saying to look out for Baltimore.  The Ravens got off to a terrible start and were left for dead.  Then Lamar Jackson came back and their schedule got easier.  Now, we're staring at Baltimore getting back to .500 and indeed becoming that opponent no one wants to face down the stretch.

Chiefs (5-4) at Broncos (8-2): Kansas City-If the playoffs started today, the Chiefs wouldn't be in them.  Yet everyone knows Kansas City is a dangerous opponent.  First-place Denver can really make a statement here while also opening up a 3.5-game lead on the Chiefs.  So, while this isn't necessarily a must-win, it's a very important game for Kansas City.  The Chiefs won't let go of their stranglehold on the AFC West that easily.

Lions (6-3) at Eagles (7-2): Philadelphia-This was the NFC Championship Game everyone wanted and expected last season, but the Commanders had to go and ruin it!  Now we finally get that Lions-Eagles matchup in one of the most-anticipated Sunday night games of the season.  It's an important one, too.  Detroit's finally in first place, but two of the Lions' three losses were on the road against top teams (Green Bay & Kansas City).  Expect a third road loss to a good team here.

Cowboys (3-5-1) at Raiders (2-7): Dallas-Cowboys-Raiders is always a matchup that will draw a lot of eyeballs no matter how good either team is.  Which is what makes this a fun Monday night game.  Are they the two best teams in the NFL?  Definitely not.  But there's still potential for an entertaining game here.  It's also one that Dallas absolutely cannot lose.  The Cowboys need to start consistently collecting wins if they want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender.

GREY CUP: Roughriders (12-6) vs. Alouettes (10-8): Saskatchewan-It's Grey Cup Sunday!  So, following my tradition, I'll give my two cents (guess I have to start collecting pennies) about the CFL's championship game.  Saskatchewan has been the dominant team in the league all year and is playing in its first Grey Cup game since 2013.  Montreal was a surprise Grey Cup champion two years ago and won the East Final on the road in Hamilton.  I just can't pick against the Roughriders, though.  The game's being played in Winnipeg, which means it'll be a sea of green, giving them a huge home-away-from-home advantage.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 94-55-1 

The MVPs, 2025

Judge or Raleigh?  For most of the second half of the season, and especially over the final two months, the AL MVP debate was an almost daily topic.  Raleigh crushed 60 home runs as a switch-hitting catcher for a division winner.  Judge once again put up the otherworldly numbers that are just an average season for him at this point.  If not for Raleigh's season, he'd be running away with a second straight MVP award, and probably unanimously.  But that won't be the case at all.  There's truly some suspense here.

It's probably a safe bet to say Judge and Raleigh went 1-2 on all 30 ballots.  If they were both first on 15 and second on the other 15, it'll be a tie, just the second ever and the first in the American League.  So, it's really a matter of how many voters had Raleigh-Judge and how many had Judge-Raleigh (or if any of the writers put either one third, which changes the math completely and almost assuredly gives the other one the win).  Whoever got more first-place votes is probably the winner.

If Raleigh wasn't a catcher, this vote wouldn't be as close as it projects to be.  But the fact that he is will almost certainly come into play.  As it should.  Raleigh had a monster year offensively while also playing 150 games at the most grueling defensive position and guiding that outstanding Seattle pitching staff.  The Mariners don't win their first division title in 24 years without him.  Not to mention the fact that Raleigh and his home runs were the story for much of the season's second half.  Which is why, as much as I love Aaron Judge and as impressed as I am with the numbers he continually puts up year after year, my AL MVP vote goes to Cal Raleigh.

Spoiler alert with that one!  I usually wait until the end of the post to reveal who my choice for the award is.  Raleigh vs. Judge is the most anticipated and figures to be the most hotly contested of all eight awards up for grabs.  And there's no question they both deserve it.  I'm sure I'm not alone in wishing we'd found out the MVPs first instead of last.  But, it's also fitting to end Awards Week with the one award that actually carries some suspense with it.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians finished third.  Even he knows that.  But still, finishing third makes you a finalist, and maybe J-Ram will grab that first career MVP sooner or later.  After all, he's in the Judge/Ohtani category for his ability to just go out there and consistently put up 30-home run, 80-RBI seasons while playing Gold Glove caliber defense at third base.  He's a quiet superstar that led Cleveland to another division title.

We know the top three, but who else figures to factor into the AL MVP vote?  Well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for one.  His signing an extension with Toronto set the stage for the Blue Jays' entire season, and he returned their investment by playing like the franchise player he's paid to be.  A case could also be made for his Toronto teammate Bo Bichette, who could've had 200 hits if he hadn't missed most of September.  And how about a third Blue Jay--George Springer?  Those three at the top of the lineup are a big reason why the Blue Jays went from worst to first in the AL East.

And, even though he's not a finalist this season, that doesn't mean Bobby Witt Jr. had a "bad" year.  Quite the opposite.  He led the AL in hits, actually.  Junior Caminero quietly had a great season in Tampa Bay, and Julio Rodriguez didn't get the headlines that Raleigh did, but he was just as big a reason for the Mariners' first division title since 2001.  Byron Buxton was healthy this season and what a difference it made!  And let's not forget the pitchers.  Where would Detroit have been without Tarik Skubal or Boston without Garret Crochet?

Well, since I already told you, you know the order I've got Raleigh and Judge in.  And I'm good with Jose Ramirez in the 3-spot.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. goes fourth in my book, followed by Caminero in fifth and Guerrero's teammates Bichette in sixth and Springer in seventh.  Bobby Witt Jr. is No. 8 for me, then Julio Rodriguez, with Tarik Skubal getting a 10th-place vote from me.

In the National League, it's gonna be Ohtani.  Because who else would it be?  He's a unique, generational talent who was finally able to show his two-way gift after being limited to just hitting in 2024 (and winning the MVP).  Ohtani didn't have as many stolen bases this season, but that's because he didn't run as much.  And he obviously brings so much more value to the Dodgers when he's able to pitch, too.  We've seen the difference Ohtani the pitcher can make, and going back to doing both should lock up his fourth career MVP.

Kyle Schwarber's job is to hit home runs.  Which is exactly what he did for a Phillies team that won its division.  The fact that he was able to consistently hit all season really came up big when you consider how many players Philadelphia lost to injury or were just plain ineffective.  Not Schwarber.  He started hitting on Opening Day and never stopped.  He played all 162 games and led the NL in both homers (56) and RBIs (132).  And, it doesn't count for regular season MVP consideration, but will anyone be able to forget the show he put on in the All*Star Game?

When the Mets signed Juan Soto to that record contract in the offseason, it came with the expectation that he live up to the investment.  April was a bit of a struggle, but Mets fans were more than satisfied with their high-priced addition.  Soto was a finalist for AL MVP last season, now he's a finalist in the NL in his first season across town.  He ended up with a .263/43/105 slash line while playing 160 games.  Soto also added another element to his game--the stolen base.  He finished with 38 of them!

There's far less suspense in the National League as in the American League.  I suspect the alphabetical order that was used to announce them as the finalists was the order of finish--Ohtani, Schwarber, Soto.  The real question is whether it was unanimous (it probably was) or if one of the Philadelphia writers threw Schwarber a bone and put him at No. 1.

Now let's talk about the other guys worth being in consideration for some down-vote MVP love.  Starting with Pete Alonso.  The Mets' first baseman wasn't sure he'd be back in Queens after his dalliance with free agency, but the Mets were glad to have him back.  He and Soto formed a formidable pair, and Alonso finished second in the NL with 126 RBIs while hitting a respectable .272.

The Chicago Cubs also contributed a couple of MVP candidates.  Pete Crow-Armstrong was really up there in the conversation with Ohtani early in the season, and he had the Gold Glove-caliber defense to go with his breakout offensive season.  PCA himself would argue that he wasn't even the most valuable member of the Cubs, however.  He'd say it was Seiya Suzuki, and I'd be hard-pressed to come up with a counterargument to that claim.  Suzuki had 32 homers and 31 doubles while driving in 103.

A healthy Christian Yelich showed that he still has the form from when he won this award in 2018.  Geraldo Perdomo quietly put together a 20-home run, 100-RBI season in Arizona.  As did Matt Olson in Atlanta.  And, it's easy to miss what everybody else on the Dodgers is doing because Ohtani sucks so much air out of the room, but Freddie Freeman once again proved that he's one of the top players in the game.  I didn't forget about Manny Machado, either.  Or James Wood, who toiled on a not-very-good Nationals team.

Ohtani's No. 1.  He's in his Barry Bonds Era right now.  The only thing preventing him from winning MVP every year is health at this point.  Schwarber gets my No. 2, with Soto at No. 3.  I'm going Seiya Suzuki at No. 4, then Pete Alonso and Pete Crow-Armstrong.  Perdomo No. 7, Yelich No. 8 (you've got to have somebody from the team that had the best record in the sport), then Olson and Machado rounding it out.

The Cy Youngs, 2025

About a decade ago, there was a big debate about the AL Cy Young and whether it should go to Felix Hernandez of the Mariners or David Price of the Rays.  Hernandez led in virtually every category, but was just 13-12 for a not-very-good Mariners team.  Price, meanwhile, had 21 wins for a Tampa Bay team that made the playoffs.  I was very much in the pro-Price camp.  Hernandez ended up winning the award, a clear indication that won-loss record no longer matters as much to Cy Young voters.

The same debate happened a few years later in the National League.  This time, it was Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer.  Scherzer was the one with the wins, and he did come away with the Cy Young during that stretch when he was the best pitcher for a few years with the Nationals.

Why am I bringing this up?  Because we've got a similar situation this year.  Paul Skenes was the runaway Rookie of the Year last season, and he's quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball.  His numbers were beyond exceptional...with the exception of his record.  Skenes only went 10-10 this season.  However, the Pirates only scored 11 total runs in his 10 losses, so there wasn't much he could do on that front.  And everyone acknowledges that.  Which is why, despite his record, Skenes is the heavy favorite.  Although, he does face some stiff competition.

If the postseason were included in Cy Young voting, it very well might've been Yoshinobu Yamamoto's award.  He was brilliant in the playoffs...a complete game victory in the NLCS, then going 3-0 in the World Series (now I kinda wish he had pitched in relief in Game 3 so that he could've had a 4-0 record).  It's not like he was a slouch in the regular season, though.  Yamamoto went 12-8, had a WHIP under 1, and was second behind Skenes in ERA.  That 12-year, $325 million investment the Dodgers made in him looks like a bargain!

Then there's Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies.  Philadelphia's rotation is one of its biggest strengths.  Sanchez emerged as the ace of that rotation this season.  And he became even more valuable when Zack Wheeler was lost for the year in August.  They didn't miss a beat, largely because of how Sanchez stepped up.  He finished the year with a 13-5 record, ranked third in the NL in ERA (2.50), and had 212 strikeouts.  Sanchez was also a workhorse, throwing more than 200 innings.

An argument can be made that Sanchez isn't the only Phillies pitcher worthy of Cy Young consideration.  Because there's also a valid case to be made for Jesus Luzardo.  His ERA was a little high (3.92), but his 15 wins were second in the NL, and his 216 strikeouts were tied for second (with Skenes).  And he was Philadelphia's fourth starter for much of the season!

Others who probably got some down-ballot votes include the Cubs' Matthew Boyd, who was as good as anybody for a few months.  I'm actually surprised Freddy Peralta isn't a finalist.  He was the best pitcher on a Brewers team that won 96 games.  Peralta led the National League with 17 wins, held opponents to a .193 batting average and a WHIP of 1.08, and had an ERA of 2.70.  And Nick Pivetta of the Padres could get some love after finishing with a WHIP below 1 and being one of just six National League pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA.

At risk of contradicting myself and my prior position regarding won-loss record and the Cy Young, I've gotta give the nod to Skenes.  Had his record been below .500, it would've been a much more interesting case.  I think the fact that he managed to get to 10-10, though, speaks volumes.  Because he was well below .500 for a while.  As for the rest of my ballot, I've actually got the non-finalist Peralta at No. 2, with Yamamoto at No. 3.  Then the Phillies round it out, with Sanchez fourth and Luzardo fifth.

Much like Skenes, Tarik Skubal was the heavy preseason favorite in the American League.  And he could become the first back-to-back AL Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.  Skubal was an ace in every sense of the word.  The best pitcher in baseball, he led the Majors in ERA (2.21), was second in the AL in strikeouts (241) and had a ridiculous 0.89 WHIP.  Most importantly, Skubal always came up big when the Tigers needed him to.

It might not be unanimous like it was last year, though.  Because Garret Crochet had quite a first season in Boston!  This is a guy who'd never started a game prior to the 2024 season.  Now he's one of the best starters in the game!  The Red Sox traded for him during the offseason, then paid him like an ace.  And he pitched like one.  Crochet went 18-5, trailing only Max Fried for the Major League lead.  He struck out 255 hitters, 14 more than Skubal.  And he threw 205 innings.  Exactly what an ace should do.

Throughout the season, most of the talk was about how the left-handed starters were dominating the AL.  Which was true.  Yet a righty managed to sneak in there as one of the finalists anyway--Houston's Hunter Brown.  In a rotation with much bigger names, Brown emerged as the Astros' most consistent starter, and Houston went 18-13 in his starts.  He was second (behind Skubal) in ERA and third (behind Crochet and Skubal) in strikeouts.

Just as I'm shocked Freddy Peralta isn't a National League finalist, I'm shocked Max Fried isn't one in the AL.  For most of the year, he was right up there in the conversation with Skubal and Fried.  Outside of one bad stretch when he was pitching hurt, he was brilliant.  And he stepped up to be the ace the Yankees needed with Gerrit Cole out for the year.  Fried led the Majors with 19 wins and was fourth in the AL with a 2.86 ERA.

There were two Phillies worthy of being in the NL discussion, and there are two Yankees worthy of being in the AL discussion.  Fried and Carlos Rodon were quite the 1-2 punch.  Rodon made 33 starts and went 18-9 with over 200 strikeouts and an opponents' batting average of .188.  Bryan Woo was excellent all year for that outstanding Seattle pitching staff.  And don't forget the closers!  Houston's Josh Hader, Seattle's Andres Munoz and, yes, Aroldis Chapman all put themselves in the Cy Young conversation.

Still, it's Skubal's award to lose.  He went into the season as the favorite to win, which is exactly what he'll do.  The vote could be close, though.  Because in any other year, Crochet might be your winner.  My third-place vote goes to Fried, with, I guess, Hunter Brown slotting in behind him and Carlos Rodon rounding out my top five picks.

The Managers, 2025

Manager of the Year is my favorite of Baseball's annual awards.  Why?  Because there are so many different ways you can win Manager of the Year, and there are usually multiple deserving candidates in each league.  It also depends on how each individual voter defines it. 

Everybody's criteria is different.  And it really is completely subjective.  Who did the better job?  The guy who unexpectedly took his team to the playoffs or the manager of a good team that met those lofty expectations?  Was it the manager of a surprise contender that just missed the playoffs or the team that overcame injuries and roster changes during the season?  Or the team that had the biggest turnaround?  Sometimes it's a combination of those things.

All six of this year's finalists meet one or more of those criteria, as do some others who aren't finalists.  This year, all six finalists led their teams to the playoffs, which certainly wasn't expected of all of them.  Five of the six teams that won their division are represented, with only Dave Roberts missing (for obvious reasons).  Both of last year's winners have a rare chance to repeat, although one of them is a longshot to do that.

Stephen Vogt, last year's winner in the American League, somehow guided Cleveland to a division title.  The Tigers led the AL Central all season.  The Guardians were 15 1/2 back in July and 11 back on September 5.  Yet, thanks mainly to a 17-5 stretch right after that, they caught and overtook Detroit.  They did this without their closer, Emmanuel Clase (who, it's safe to say, will never pitch in the Majors again) and no rotation to speak of.  Cleveland had no business winning the division, but did anyway.

As impressive as the Guardians' season was, though, I think Stephen Vogt finished a distant third in the voting.  Which isn't a knock on him or the job he did this season by any means.  It's more a compliment to the managers of the ALCS participants.  A compelling case can be made for both Dan Wilson, who guided Seattle to its first division title in 24 years, and John Schneider, who took the Blue Jays from last place in 2024 to the World Series in 2025.

This has been building in Seattle, so it wasn't a total shock to see the Mariners finally put it all together.  It was Dan Wilson, in his first full season as a Major League manager, who got them over the hump.  They trailed the Astros, who've owned the AL West for the better part of a decade, in early September.  Then they went into Houston, swept the Astros, and ran away with the division from there.  The Mariners were the best team in the American League for a good portion of the season, and Wilson got them closer to the World Series than they've ever been.

There's a clear winner in the American League, though.  The Blue Jays finished last in 2024 and entered this season wondering if they'd lose Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to free agency.  Vladdy signed a 15-year deal to stay in Toronto and that was just the start.  The Blue Jays were good, not great, in April and May.  Then they swept a four-game series with the Yankees in early June and the rest was history.  Toronto was dominant at home and their lineup was impossible to get out!  It all added up to 94 wins, the No. 1 seed in the AL, and their first pennant in 32 years...with mostly the same team that went 74-88 last season.

While they obviously weren't top three finalists, also worth a mention (since apparently they go five-deep in Rookie & Manager of the Year voting now) are Alex Cora of the Red Sox, Kansas City's Matt Quatraro and Mark Kotsay of the Athletics.  Boston made the playoffs despite completely overhauling the roster in June.  The Royals, who made the playoffs last season, nearly got back, and finished 82-80.  Kotsay, meanwhile, managed a vagabond team that was playing its home games in a Minor League park and kept the A's competitive, finishing 76-86.

To me, it's very clear.  John Schneider is your very deserving winner, with Dan Wilson as the runner-up.  Stephen Vogt was first last year, but will be third this year.  Rounding out my ballot, I've got Alex Cora in the No. 4 spot and Mark Kotsay at No. 5.

Terry Francona was a three-time AL Manager of the Year in Cleveland.  He retired after the 2023 season, but that retirement didn't last long and he was back in the dugout with Cincinnati this season.  Tito (with a little help from the Mets) guided the Reds to their first full-season playoff berth in 13 years.  No one thought the Cincinnati Reds would come anywhere close to the playoffs.  And they did it as an 83-win team that didn't have a single player hit .270 or with more than 25 home runs.

The Phillies were supposed to be good.  And they were.  What was supposed to be a tight race with the Mets was anything but.  They won the division by 13 games and had the second-best record in baseball at 96-66.  It was a collection of superstars that Rob Thomson managed masterfully all season long.  In four years with the Phillies, he's led Philadelphia to four postseason berths and back-to-back NL East titles.

If you'd told me that the Brewers team that got swept by the Yankees to start the season would end up with the best record in baseball this season, I wouldn't have believed you.  Yet there they were.  Finishing 97-65 and putting together a ridiculous 30-5 stretch in July and August.  They were the third-highest scoring team in baseball and allowed the third-fewest runs.  Their run differential was an absurd +172.  And they did it without a single superstar.  That's a credit to manager Pat Murphy, who could become the first back-to-back Manager of the Year since Bobby Cox in 2004-05.

Just like in the American League, that top three hits it right on the mark.  Another NL Central manager must enter the conversation, too--the Cubs' Craig Counsell.  And how about the job first-year manager Clayton McCullough did with the Marlins?  In a loaded NL East, Miami actually finished ahead of Atlanta and improved from 62 wins in 2024 to 79 this season.

So, will we end up with a back-to-back Manager of the Year or a four-time Manager of the Year?  I say four-time.  No one was surprised the Brewers were good.  Everyone was surprised the Reds were!  Another line to add to Tito's Hall of Fame plaque.  My NL rankings: 1. Francona, 2. Murphy, 3. Thomson, 4. Counsell, 5. McCullough.

The Rookies, 2025

We've reached one of my favorite weeks of the year--MLB Awards Week!  This year, they've expanded it even more and are announcing a whole bunch of other stuff with the MVPs on Thursday (personally, I think you should do all that before Awards Week and let the MVP especially have its own spotlight, but I digress).  And as always, Awards Week starts with the announcement of the AL and NL Rookies of the Year. 

Last season, both awards went to pitchers, the first time that had happened since 2011.  This season, there's a very realistic chance that we could see teammates go 1-2 in the AL.  That's happened eight times previously (including the aforementioned 2011 season), most recently in 2022.  It hasn't happened in the AL since 1984.  We saw Yankees Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres go 2-3 behind Shohei Ohtani in 2018, but this year's Athletics will one-up that and become the first rookie teammates to finish 1-2 in the voting in 40 years.

Jacob Wilson was the starting shortstop in the All*Star Game, the first AL rookie shortstop ever elected to start by the fans.  He went back-and-forth with Aaron Judge for the AL batting title all season and ended up finishing second with a .311 average.  Wilson also had 151 hits to lead all Major League rookies and struck out just 39 times all season.  He was the odds-on favorite at the start of the year and would ordinarily be an easy call as a runaway winner.  However...

Wilson's teammate Nick Kurtz put together a rookie season that was pretty special and maybe even more impressive.  Kurtz was drafted last year and called up on April 23 after just 32 Minor League games.  All he did was hit .290 with 36 home runs and 86 RBIs, both of which led all Major League rookies.  Kurtz also scored 90 runs.  Those numbers could earn him some down-ballot MVP votes and should just give him the edge over Wilson in Rookie of the Year voting.

The third finalist (aka the guy who finished third in the voting) was a bit of a surprise--Boston's Roman Anthony.  He was only called up in June and played in just 71 games before getting hurt in early September.  The Red Sox went 40-26 in the 66 games he started.  It wasn't just Anthony, it was all those rookies who got called up in the middle of the season.  But Anthony's numbers definitely stand out.  A .292 average and a consistent bat from either corner outfield spot.

Although, for me, Anthony isn't the Red Sox rookie I would've chosen.  I would've gone with catcher Carlos Narvaez.  He ended up wresting away the starting catcher job and played 118 games behind the plate.  Narvaez led all MLB rookies with 27 doubles and added 15 homers.  That's more extra base hits than any rookie other than Kurtz.  While playing catcher.

And let's not forget Will Warren.  He ended up in the Yankees' Opening Day rotation out of necessity, yet he became one of their most consistent starters.  Warren actually tied for the Major League lead with 33 starts and finished the year 9-8.  He pitched much better than his 4.44 ERA, which was mainly the result of a few bad starts.

In the National League, the rookie sensation pitcher this season was the Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski.  He won't follow in Paul Skenes' footsteps and win the Rookie of the Year, though.  But his Milwaukee teammate Caleb Durbin just might.  When Durbin was called up in late April, the Brewers took off.  He was a big reason why.  Durbin stabilized third base and led all NL rookies with 18 stolen bases while belting 114 hits, which included 25 doubles and 11 homers.

Atlanta's Drake Baldwin, meanwhile, put his team in a very interesting predicament.  The Braves already had a starting catcher in Sean Murphy, but Baldwin made it impossible to keep him out of the lineup.  So, he and Murphy ended up splitting catcher and DH duties for most of the season.  Baldwin finished with 19 homers and 80 RBIs while hitting .274.  The fact that he was in the Majors all season is significant, too.

Then there's Cade Horton of the Cubs.  He was called up in May and made 22 starts before a season-ending injury prevented him from pitching in the Wild Card Series.  Horton's numbers (11-4, 2.67 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) were impressive enough before you consider his historically good second half.  From July 11 on, Horton had a ridiculous 1.03 ERA and allowed zero or one run in 12 of 14 starts.  That's Cy Young-caliber pitching!

Agustin Ramirez of the Marlins deserves some consideration, too.  His 124 hits, 33 doubles, 67 RBIs and 72 runs scored were all the most among National League rookies.  Like Baldwin, he was in the Majors all season.  Like Baldwin, he played a premium position--catcher.  Like Durbin, he ended up on his current team after being traded by the Yankees (in this case, the Jazz Chisholm trade, in Durbin's, the Devin Williams trade).

It's really difficult to see how this'll go.  I can see any of the three being the National League winner in what looks like it'll be a very close vote.  I'm not even really sure there's a favorite for NL Rookie of the Year.  So, it's hard to even handicap the race.  It's not like in the AL, where it's a pretty easy call to say the Rookie of the Year played in Sacramento.

If I had a vote in the National League, where would it go, though?  Out of the three finalists, I think I'd give Drake Baldwin the nod.  Atlanta's disappointing season wasn't his fault and his numbers are better than the other two finalists.  I'd actually put Horton at No. 2, with Durbin at No. 3 and Ramirez No. 4.

As for which A gets it in the American League, I've been thinking Wilson all along.  Kurtz's numbers really blow his away, though.  In any other year, I'd say Wilson no question, but I'm putting Kurtz first and Wilson second.  My third-place vote doesn't go to Roman Anthony, however.  It goes to Will Warren, who I suspect finished fourth in the voting.

NFL Picks, Week 10

As we start the second half of the NFL season, the playoff picture has started to come into focus.  Has it, though?  Because it's still jumbled at the top and there are a lot of surprise teams still in there.  The division races will sort themselves out as everybody plays each other (the division games really seem to be backloaded this year), but I'm really curious to see which of those surprise contenders hang around and who falls back to the pack as they start playing tougher opponents.  Maybe we'll start to get a clue about both things this week.

Thursday Night: Denver (Win)

Falcons (3-5) vs Colts (7-2): Indianapolis-After having an incredibly weak strength of schedule to start the season, the Colts' second half schedule is much tougher.  We already saw them lose to the Steelers last week, and that was the start of a span where they play at home once in seven weeks.  This is technically a "home" game, but it's in Berlin, so it's actually the furthest trip of them all.  Their opponent is a Falcons team that still confuses the crap out of me.  Could Atlanta actually show up and play well?  Sure.  Am I banking on it?  No.

Giants (2-7) at Bears (5-3): Chicago-Is this that one year in every five where the Bears are actually good?  They went into Cincinnati last week and won the game of the year so far (sorry, Cowboys-Packers, you were a tie!).  And they currently find themselves tied with Detroit for the last wild card spot.  They've got four games in their gauntlet of a division left, as well as matchups with Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and San Francisco.  Which means beating the Giants at home is an absolute necessity.

Bills (6-2) at Dolphins (2-7): Buffalo-The Bills continued their regular season dominance of the Chiefs last week, beating Kansas City for the fifth consecutive time in the regular season.  That will only matter, of course, if they take care of business against the Dolphins.  Miami has pledged that Mike McDaniel will keep his job at least through the end of the season, but he's probably already getting the boxes ready to start cleaning out his office during Week 18.  They've already started cleaning house, so I think he knows that on Monday, January 5, he'll need to call the movers.

Ravens (3-5) at Vikings (4-4): Minnesota-Lamar Jackson's return has people feeling high about the Ravens again.  Suddenly Baltimore has won two straight with an offense that looks completely different.  Are they a team to watch in the second half of the season?  Are the Vikings?  Don't count out J.J. McCarthy and Co.  Especially after that win in Detroit last week.

Browns (2-6) at Jets (1-7): Jets-This was the game I had circled on the calendar as the Jets' potential first win.  Well, they already beat Cincinnati, so it won't be.  It'll be their second instead.  This is one of the few games this season where it's reasonable to think that.  Although, they also just traded the only players on the team who are any good, so who knows what type of team they are now?  If they don't win this one, though, the next chance for a win might not come until they play Miami in early December.

Patriots (7-2) at Buccaneers (6-2): Tampa Bay-Who would've thought that Patriots-Bucs would be one of the better matchups this week?!  Yet, here we are, with both teams entering the Brady Bowl leading their divisions.  The Patriots, especially, are on a roll.  They've won six straight.  Although, they barely survived against Atlanta last week.  Heading to Tampa against a rested Bucs team coming off its bye is a much different challenge.  I think the winning streak ends here.

Saints (1-8) at Panthers (5-4): Carolina-Carolina got shellacked by Buffalo, then went into Lambeau Field and upset the Packers.  That's a big win not just for the momentum.  They've struggled on the road this season, so it sent a message to look out for the Panthers.  Outside of the Bills game, they've been excellent at home.  There's no reason to think that won't continue against the Saints (who can't lose next week since it's their bye).

Jaguars (5-3) at Texans (3-5): Jacksonville-Jacksonville's kicker sets an NFL record for the longest field goal and no one sees it because it's a FOX regional game in the late window with Chris Myers on the call.  He didn't put any excitement into it whatsoever and didn't even mention that it was a record.  (And the game still went to overtime, so imagine if he hadn't hit it!)  So is life in the AFC South.  Maybe we should start paying attention to the Jaguars, though, they have road wins in Kansas City and San Francisco and would be a playoff team if the season ended today.  They should get to 6-3 here.

Cardinals (3-5) at Seahawks (6-2): Seattle-Can the Seahawks just wear their throwbacks all the time?  Sure, there's a nostalgia factor at play here.  They're just so pretty, though.  Which is something that I can definitely appreciate with so many terrible alternate uniforms being worn.  Anyway, they're doing things backwards this season.  They're undefeated on the road, while both of their losses have come at home, where they're usually dominant.  They'll have to straighten that out as they start this little two-week NFC West round robin by hosting Arizona.  A win and a 49ers win puts the Seahawks in sole possession of first place.

Rams (6-2) at 49ers (6-3): San Francisco-When these two met on a Thursday night in Week 5, San Francisco won in overtime.  The 49ers are actually undefeated in the division and 3-3 against everyone else.  So, this game actually feels bigger for the Rams, who I think are the best team in the NFC West.  This is the beginning of a tough stretch for them, too.  They've got Seattle and Tampa Bay coming up after this.  So, their season could get away from them really quickly if they don't get a win here.

Lions (5-3) at Commanders (3-6): Detroit-A rematch of last season's playoff matchup where the Commanders went into Detroit and shocked the Lions.  They're in a much different state midway through the 2025 campaign, though.  Washington is 3-6 and just lost Chase Daniels to that gruesome injury against Seattle.  I don't see things going much better against Detroit than they did last week.  Not against a Lions team that has bounced back nicely from each of its losses this season.

Steelers (5-3) at Chargers (6-3): Chargers-Last week's Sunday night game was a clunker of a matchup and a clunker of a game.  This week they make up for it with Steelers-Chargers.  Denver already won, so the Chargers are in danger of falling two games behind the Broncos with a loss.  The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off a big win over Indianapolis and can really make a statement if they go into SoFi and get another.  This is a game you feel like the Chargers have to win if they want to be considered serious contenders.

Eagles (6-2) at Packers (5-2-1): Green Bay-Was last week a trap game for the Packers?  I guess we'll find out on Monday night when they face the Eagles in an important game for playoff positioning.  Philadelphia's in good shape in the NFC East.  Green Bay's suddenly got a race in the NFC North, though.  The Packers are just a half-game ahead of the Lions and Bears (although, it should be noted, they have five division games left).  I just hope we actually see their regular uniforms this week after two straight games wearing throwbacks (and not good throwbacks like Philadelphia's).

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 87-48-1

Alex vs. A-Rod

Alex Rodriguez has a new three-part docuseries on HBO.  As is often the case when somebody has something to promote, he hit the late-night talk show circuit to discuss the show (as well as that incredible World Series!).  I haven't seen the documentary yet, but I have seen a few of his interviews, and there was one thing about them that really struck me.  They were refreshingly honest.

He had a winning lottery ticket and he knew it.  He was one of the greatest baseball players of his generation and one of the best in history.  A-Rod was bound for Cooperstown.  Then he did something incredibly stupid that completely changed the trajectory of his career.  With that one decision, he threw away his guaranteed place in the Hall of Fame.  And he has no one to blame for that than himself.

So, what's refreshing about that?  A-Rod knows he's the only one to blame and he accepts it.  More significantly, he takes responsibility for the reason why.  There are so many players who are widely assumed to have been taking steroids but have never admitted it.  A-Rod acknowledges that he did.  He made a terrible decision and is suffering the consequences for it.  Consequences that he brought upon himself.

Granted, this isn't the first time A-Rod has admitted his steroid use.  He first did so in a 60 Minutes interview a few years ago.  But still, to hear him be open about the fact that, yes, he did do it and, yes, he regrets it is refreshing.  Beyond that, it looks like it's cathartic.  Telling the truth has lifted an incredible weight off his shoulders.

The documentary is titled "Alex vs. A-Rod," which highlights the dual nature of being a public figure.  In private, he's "Alex," just a man living his life.  "A-Rod" was his public persona.  The superstar baseball player who was as hated as he was beloved.  Reconciling that dual identity can't be an easy thing, and it became so much harder for "Alex" was "A-Rod" was a pariah.

One of the things I'm looking forward to the most about this documentary is how nothing was off-limits.  That's not always the case.  In fact, it too often isn't.  How many "tell-all" documentaries don't really tell us much of anything?  Especially when the athlete in question is involved in the development of the project, it becomes less of a "tell-all" and more a sanitized version of the story that they hope will make people perceive them the way they want.  Not here.  It was no holds barred.  A-Rod and his family told their story.  The full story.  Problematic parts and all.

It's a familiar story by now.  A-Rod was a highly touted prospect, the No. 1 pick in the Draft.  He lived up that promise and then some, turning into a genuine superstar!  During the peak of his career, he was the highest-paid player in history.  He was also a polarizing figure.  Those who loved to hate him felt vindicated after he was suspended for the entire 2014 season.  A-Rod admitted to taking PEDs during his time with the Texas Rangers from 2001-03 (including his 2003 MVP season), which is when public opinion about him first started to turn.  Then he was traded to the Yankees, which made it worse.  Then he came back from his suspension and was a downright villain until his retirement in 2016 (and even for a few years after).

Across three parts, the documentary will cover his entire career arc, from the high schooler who signed with the Seattle Mariners to the highly paid superstar to the guy who retired with the Yankees two decades later a shell of his former self.  And it, of course, deals with his steroid use.  How could any documentary about A-Rod not?  That, unfortunately, has become what defines his career.  For as good a player as he was and the ridiculous numbers that he put up, his 211-game PED suspension and his not being in the Hall of Fame because of it are the first things that come to mind when people think of A-Rod.

If not for the steroid use, A-Rod would've been a sure-fire Hall of Famer.  In a 22-year career, he hit 696 home runs, the fifth-most in history.  He had 3,115 hits and 2,086 RBIs, won three MVPs and two Gold Gloves, and made 14 All*Star teams.  And, of course, he was a member of the Yankees' 2009 World Series championship team.  (It really puts into perspective how long it's been since the Yankees' last championship when you consider the fact that three Hall of Famers--Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, CC Sabathia--and one would-be Hall of Famer--A-Rod were on their most recent World Series-winning roster.)

Much like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez has the numbers that would've otherwise made him a Hall of Fame lock.  His Hall of Fame candidacy is still a major source of debate, as an argument can certainly be made that he belongs in regardless.  Yet A-Rod hasn't broken 35 percent of the vote in the four years he's been eligible, and that doesn't seem likely to change until he falls off the ballot in 2031.  He knows that, too.  And he knows the reason why.

Does Alex Rodriguez think that, based on his numbers, he belongs in the Hall of Fame?  Yes.  But he doesn't have a vote, and he's come to terms with the fact that he's unlikely to get in.  Which is entirely on him.  Craig Melvin asked him about it on the Today Show, and A-Rod's answer was very blunt: "I'm definitely not going in the Hall of Fame.  I knew the rules, I broke the rules, and if that's the penalty, that's completely on me."  You can't help but respect his acceptance and taking accountability (even if the accountability came way too late for some).

What's incredible is how becoming a broadcaster has also rehabilitated his image.  Throughout his career, A-Rod's baseball knowledge was widely respected.  Throw in the fact that he's good looking, and a career in broadcasting seemed like a natural fit.  Which it was.  He started as a game analyst on Sunday Night Baseball and now puts his baseball knowledge and passion for the game on display as part of FOX's highly regarded studio crew with David Ortiz and Derek Jeter.  A-Rod the Broadcaster isn't just smart, he's something A-Rod the Player wasn't for so many.  He's likeable.

None of that makes up for his tanking his own Hall of Fame chances by taking steroids for absolutely no reason whatsoever.  Some people will never be able to overlook that, which is completely understandable.  I hope he touches on his reasons for doing it during the docuseries.  Because he's never really said why.  And, frankly, people want to know!  You had the golden ticket!  Why did you throw it away?!  And for what?!  That question, more than anything else, I hope is answered in "Alex vs. A-Rod."

This documentary probably won't change any minds about Alex Rodriguez.  I doubt there will be any groundbreaking revelations, either.  But, if we can finally get some insight into his reasons for taking PEDs, it'll be well worth the watch.