It's not a secret that I was never a Rafael Nadal fan (as if my constantly calling him "Clay Boy" didn't give it away). I'm a Roger guy. Always have been. As such, I didn't like Rafa (even though the two of them are really good friends). But I still recognized his brilliance and couldn't help but appreciate this truly exceptional era of three all-time greats, all in their primes, dominating men's tennis for two decades.
This isn't the first time tennis has had a Big Three. In the 70s, it was Bjorn Borg, John McEnroe and Jimmy Connors. But what the trio of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic (with Andy Murray briefly making it a Big Four) did is unlike anything the sport has ever seen and may never see again. They rank first, second and third all-time in Grand Slam titles, all with at least 20, and have 66 between them. That's 12 1/2 years' worth of Grand Slam trophies! Plus, three Olympic singles gold medals (and two for Murray).
We knew that the Era of the Big Three would eventually come to an end, and with Nadal officially announcing his retirement, that time has come. Federer hung it up a few years ago after his body told him that it had enough. Nadal was injured so often in recent years that you knew it was only a matter of time for him, too. And this season was very much his farewell tour. He wanted to play in one last French Open and play in the Olympics (at Roland Garros). He was able to do both. And, fittingly, the player he lost to in the Olympics was Djokovic.
When Djokovic burst onto the scene, he was the young guy. And it took him a few years to break through and truly turn the Roger-Rafa rivalry into a three-way competition. Djokovic, of course, eventually surpassed both of them. His 24 Grand Slam titles are the most all-time, and it would be foolish to think he doesn't have at least one more in him.
As the youngest of the three, it was always likely that Djokovic would outlast the other two. He's also the first to credit Federer and Nadal. Djokovic has admitted that his path was easier, but he also knows that he wouldn't have become the player that he did without them. Federer and Nadal would say the exact same thing. Competing against each other (and trying to beat each other) made all three of them better.
Now, Djokovic is the "old" guy. He's the veteran. A last vestige of the Big Three/Four Era as a new generation rises to the top of the rankings. This year was the first time since 2002 that none of the Big Three won a Grand Slam title. Instead, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz won two each. They're the faces of this new generation that can only hope to be as successful as their predecessors.
And that new generation is doing to Djokovic what he once did to Federer and Nadal. He beat Alcaraz in a truly exceptional Olympic gold medal match, but that's the outlier. In the last two Wimbledon finals, it was Alcaraz getting the better of Djokovic (including that five-set classic in 2023). At the Australian Open, a tournament that Djokovic has won 10 times, he lost to Sinner in the semifinals--with the Italian taking full advantage of his youth and speed and taking it to Djokovic. Expect to see more of that moving forward.
Djokovic lost to Sinner in the final of the ATP's Shanghai Masters tournament on Sunday. After the match, he was asked about Nadal's retirement and he said, "I still enjoy competing, but part of me left with them." That's a man who understands that he played an important part in something so special and just how special it was. That's also a man who understands that things will never be the same again. Gone are the days of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal trading Grand Slam titles--and usually having to go through each other in the process.
During the prime Big Four Era, 33 Grand Slam finals featured some combination of Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Murray. The last of those was at the 2020 French Open, when Nadal beat Djokovic. Djokovic has reached 10 Grand Slam finals since then. He's faced six different opponents--all from the younger generation. So, we've already seen him bridge that gap.
But still, Murray and Nadal joining Federer in retirement leaves Djokovic as truly the last man standing. Time is undefeated, so age is something that will catch up on even the best players eventually. So, really, we should be grateful that the Big Four Era lasted as long as it did. We can still be sad to see it end, though. Even though we knew it would.
Let's not forget the fact that Serena Williams was also their contemporary. So, tennis fans really have been spoiled by seeing those five absolute legends doing their thing at the same time for an entire generation. Four of the five are now retired. Only Djokovic remains.
Even though Djokovic is still capable of playing at an extremely high level as he serves as the bridge between generations, he can't help but feel nostalgic about his rivalries with Federer and Nadal. After Nadal made his retirement official, Djokovic posted an emotional thank you on Instagram. They pushed each other to the limit and were both so mentally tough. They brought out the best in each other. And, most importantly, they respected each other. After so many intense matches, how could they not?
Men's tennis will obviously survive. In fact, there are probably plenty of people who've been waiting for the end of the Big Four Era and the opportunity to actually see somebody else making Grand Slam finals and winning Grand Slam titles. But even they must have an appreciation for the greatness that was on display for so many years. Three men with 66 Grand Slam titles and 98 Grand Slam finals between them (fourth place on those lists, by the way, are 14 titles by Pete Sampras and 19 finals by Ivan Lendl, so it's not even close).
Roger Federer, Andy Murray and, now, Rafael Nadal, are all retired. A new generation led by Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev has taken their place at the top of the sport. But, across both eras, one thing has remained a constant. Novak Djokovic.
Monday, October 14, 2024
And Then There Was One
Sunday, October 13, 2024
NFL 2024 (Week 6)
Thursday Night: Seattle (Loss)
Jaguars (1-4) vs Bears (3-2): Chicago-Roger Goodell said some interesting things during his London press conference. And, while I doubt the whole "London could get a Super Bowl" (that would start at midnight local time) thing, I can definitely see the Jaguars continuing to play multiple games across the pond. This is the second straight season in which they'll play back-to-back games in London. This week, they're the "road" team against the Bears. London is where they've found their game in the past, so maybe that's what they need. Because Jacksonville had been floundering before finally getting a win last week, and this one looks like it could be a Chicago romp.
Cardinals (2-3) at Packers (3-2): Green Bay-Arizona is a very interesting team. The Cardinals are 2-0 against their own division, blowing out the Rams at home and pulling off the upset last week in San Francisco. They're 0-3 against everybody else and have scored only 27 points combined in their last two losses. The Packers, meanwhile, are a 3-2 last-place team in the suddenly very deep NFC North. So, they don't really have a choice but to keep winning their non-division games.
Colts (2-3) at Titans (1-3): Indianapolis-Well, what do you know? Maybe Joe Flacco still had some gas left in the tank after all! I bet the Browns were wishing they still had him after that performance for the Colts last week. It came in a losing effort, but so what? If he continues to play like that, it bodes well for Indianapolis. This is actually a fairly important game for the Colts, too. Because 3-3 looks a whole lot better than 2-4, especially with another winnable game against Miami coming up before they go to Houston and Minnesota.
Texans (4-1) at Patriots (1-4): Houston-While the Bills made some questionable late-game decisions, that was still quite a statement the Texans made last week. They're right behind the Chiefs with the second-best record in the AFC, and now they have the tiebreaker over Buffalo. It's the opposite story for the Patriots, who've lost four straight since upsetting Cincinnati in their opener. Make it five.
Buccaneers (3-2) at Saints (2-3): New Orleans-Let's not forget the most important thing, and that's the safety of everyone in the Tampa area. It was actually a fortunate coincidence that the Bucs were away this week, and they left for New Orleans before the hurricane hit. From what it looks like, Raymond James Stadium escaped the type of damage Tropicana Field got, but it's still a good thing that they're out of town and the city doesn't have to worry about all that goes into a Bucs home game while dealing with everything else (although, since this is a division matchup, I have a feeling they probably would've flipped home games under the circumstances). Anyway, with everything going on this week in Tampa, don't be surprised if the Bucs' minds are elsewhere.
Browns (1-4) at Eagles (2-2): Philadelphia-Cleveland is a far cry from last season's playoff team. The Browns have completely lost the ability to score and, yes, they should bench Deshaun Watson. I don't know why that's even a question! Don't forget, last year when they made their run, their quarterback was Joe Flacco, who was sitting on his couch until November. Not Watson. The Eagles haven't exactly been great, but they're coming off their bye, which hopefully gave them a bit of a reset.
Commanders (4-1) at Ravens (3-2): Washington-The only reason I can think of why this game wasn't flexed into Sunday night is because CBS blocked it. Because, frankly, it should be the Sunday night game. And I'm sure there are plenty of people who want to see Washington, which has been the surprise team in the NFL this season. Specifically, Jaylen Daniels and that offense. The Commanders' offense is actually good now! Too bad the national audience on Sunday night won't get to see it.
Chargers (2-2) at Broncos (3-2): Denver-Maybe Sean Payton knew what he was doing after all. Because that Denver defense is legit! They've only given up 60 points in five games this season and have won three in a row. It's been a while since the Broncos were good, but that defense makes them real contenders. We'll see how Jim Harbaugh's Chargers do against them, but I think the chances of Denver making it four straight are pretty good.
Steelers (3-2) at Raiders (2-3): Pittsburgh-Last week, the Steelers played one of their 70s rivals--the Cowboys. This week, they play their other big rival from that decade--the Raiders. Both of the Raiders' wins this season are against the AFC North, so you know the Steelers won't be looking past them. Still, though, where is the offense gonna come from for Las Vegas?
Lions (3-1) at Cowboys (3-2): Detroit-This is Tom Brady's sixth week as FOX's lead analyst...and the fourth time he's doing a Cowboys game. And the only two Cowboys games he hasn't done were on either a Thursday night or Sunday night. So, out of the four chances FOX has had to assign Burkhardt and Brady to the Cowboys, they're 4-for-4. Although, this week, there's a good reason for Dallas to be in the America's Game of the Week slot. Most of the country will see them against Detroit. Last year's game between these two was great. What do they have in store this season?
Falcons (3-2) at Panthers (1-4): Atlanta-That amazing comeback last Thursday night against Tampa Bay moved the Falcons into first place. Now they can take sole possession of the top spot with a win over the Panthers and a Bucs loss in New Orleans. The Falcons should be able to hold up their end of the deal. Carolina made the QB change last week, but it didn't really help the offense much against the Bears. Why should we expect things to be any different against the Falcons?
Bengals (1-4) at Giants (2-3) Giants-I'm confused why this is the Sunday night game for a few reasons. Why did they think America would want to watch this matchup in the first place? And why wasn't it flexed out when they both suck? Isn't that the point of flex scheduling? Anyway, those people who aren't watching Mets-Dodgers will get the chance to see if the Giants can pick up their first home win or if the Bengals can actually play like an NFL team this week.
Bills (3-2) at Jets (2-3): Buffalo-Aaron Rodgers is adamant that he DIDN'T get Robert Saleh fired. Which, even if he wasn't involved in the actual decision, still isn't entirely true, since Saleh likely wouldn't have been fired if Rodgers was actually playing well and the Jets were as good as people thought they'd be. Instead, their offense has been just as anemic as it was before Rodgers arrived. Kinda like it was all of last season...after Rodgers got hurt four plays into their season-opening Monday night game against the Bills at MetLife. The Jets ended up winning that game, too. Now it's time for a do-over, and the Jets will actually be in first place if they win. Which they probably won't.
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 42-37
Saturday, October 12, 2024
Big Changes In the W
Their timing couldn't have been better, either. Game 1 of the WNBA Finals between the Lynx and Liberty was outstanding! Which only served to prove that there's a reason for this momentum that goes way beyond this season's rookie class. They might've been the reason people started watching, but once they did, they realized that what they had been missing out on was a pretty good product. Which is why they stayed.
That incredible Game 1 provided immediate validation for one of the three major changes that the WNBA will implement next season. The WNBA Championship was a single game in 1997 before expanding to a best-of-3 series the following season. Since 2005, the WNBA Finals have been best-of-5. Now, after 20 years as a best-of-5 series, the WNBA Finals will become a best-of-7 affair in 2025.
If Game 1 was any indication, this year's WNBA Finals will be an amazing series! Now just imagine if it was a best-of-7! The Liberty and Lynx are so evenly matched and the series looks to be so competitive that it would almost certainly go seven. And they would probably be seven extraordinary games.
While the first round of the WNBA Playoffs will remain best-of-3 and the semifinals will remain best-of-5, there was one other significant change to the playoff structure. When they got rid of single-elimination games and went to best-of-3 first round series in 2022, they made it so that the higher seed would host to first two games, with the decisive Game 3 hosted by the lower seed. Next season, it'll move from the 2-1 format to a 1-1-1 format.
It was only used for three years, but that was enough time to see the flaws of the 2-1 format. There were two big ones that especially stood out. The first is that the lower-seeded team wasn't guaranteed to have a home game. They'd only host if the series went to a third game. If the higher seed won the first two games, that was it. The lower seed would be out without having had the opportunity to play at home. Which brings me to the other problem with the 2-1 format.
Frankly, I think the biggest problem with the 2-1 format wasn't the lower seed potentially not getting to play a home game. It was the higher seed having to play a winner-take-all game on the road. What's the point of having the higher seed if the lower-seeded team has home court advantage in the decisive game of the series? It's almost as if they were being penalized for not sweeping.
Next season, the WNBA will welcome its first expansion team since 2008 when the Golden State Valkyries join the league. They'll be followed in 2026 by new franchises in Toronto and Portland. That'll bring the WNBA to 15 teams, so you'd have to figure that a 16th will be coming pretty soon, as well. And, with the addition of four teams, the length of the regular season will increase, too. From 40 games to 44.
I wouldn't be surprised if that number grows again once the WNBA adds a 16th team. The simple math is obvious. Three games against each of the other 15 teams is 45 games, with a fourth game against one opponent to make it 46. Seems pretty easy, doesn't it? (The NHL is talking about going to 84 games for a similar reason. It'll bring back the two division games everybody lost for Seattle.)
During the 2020 COVID season, played in the Bradenton, FL "wubble," teams played a 22-game schedule. Granted, that was a shortened season played under special circumstances, but it's still notable that only five years later, the WNBA season will feature twice as many games. And, when you throw in the playoffs, the WNBA champion will play a minimum of 53 games. That doesn't include the Commissioner's Cup or any playoff losses, either, so it will almost certainly be more. The final number will likely be in the high 50s and potentially hit 60.
Of course, squeezing in 44 games plus playoffs while taking an Olympic or World Cup break every other season will produce a completely different set of challenges. But, the fact that the WNBA will even have that potential problem speaks volumes. It shows how strong the league has become. When they expanded the season to 40 games, it was a big deal. It's only been 40 games for two years and they're already in a strong enough position to add four more games to the schedule.
Let's not forget the biggest thing that made this all possible. After years of flying commercial and all the headaches that go with it, this season marked the first time that all WNBA teams had chartered flights for road games. It's made such a huge difference. They're being treated like the professional athletes they are. And because they're being treated like professional athletes, it's made the travel easier. And because the travel is easier, playing four additional games, two of which will be on the road, isn't as much of a burden as it would've been previously. (It's important to note that Golden State, obviously, is on the West Coast, so that means more coast-to-coast travel, too.)
All of this is a prelude to the WNBA's new TV contract kicking in once the NBA's deal begins. More games means more inventory for rights-holders ESPN, NBC and Amazon (plus any potential fourth TV partner). I'm sure that was a factor, too, but it wasn't the only one. The WNBA wouldn't be increasing the number of games available to TV partners if those TV partners didn't have any incentive to show them. The ratings (for all games, not just those involving Caitlin Clark) indicate that it's a worthwhile investment, though, so there's value to it on both sides.
Does Caitlin Clark deserve some of the credit? Sure. Does she deserve all of it? Absolutely not! The WNBA has long been a hidden gem on the U.S. sports scene. It's just that now people are finally taking notice. And because they're taking notice, the WNBA is able to add teams, add games and make the Finals a best-of-7 affair. All of which is a huge W for the W.
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Rest vs Rust
We're only three years into the current MLB playoff format with six teams per league and the top two division winners receiving first-round byes. Which is way too small of a sample size to draw any sort of conclusions. However, there's definitely a noticeable trend that can't be ignored. Especially in the National League, it isn't the top two teams who've had the advantage. It's the wild cards.
In 2022, the first year of the 12-team playoffs, the Dodgers won 111 games and the Braves won 101. Neither one got out of the Division Series. The NLCS was the sixth-seeded Phillies against the fifth-seeded Padres. Last season, the Braves and Dodgers were again the top two seeds, with 104 and 100 wins, respectively. In the Division Series, they won a combined one game. The NLCS was again two wild cards, the sixth-seeded Diamondbacks and the fourth-seeded Phillies.
This season, the Phillies won the NL East and got the bye, only to lose the Division Series...to the sixth-seeded Mets. The Mets are the third consecutive 6-seed to reach the NLCS. Just as remarkably, if the Padres beat the Dodgers in Game 5, the three NLCS during that span will have featured six wild card teams and zero division winners. Should the Dodgers lose, the top two seeds will be a combined 0-6 in the Division Series. So much for having the advantage.
The division winners have fared slightly better in the American League. In the first two years of this format, three of the four ALCS participants have been division winners, and the one that wasn't (last year's Rangers) tied for the division title, but lost the tiebreaker. Texas was still a wild card team, though, and the Rangers still won the pennant. Which means that three of the four teams to play in the last two World Series were wild cards.
All of this once again brings up the debate that surfaces at this time every year: Rest vs. Rust. And it's a legitimate one. Because, as we've seen, winning your division and earning the bye doesn't mean much if you end up losing in the playoffs...especially to a team that you're "better than." Those wild card teams, meanwhile, have nothing to lose and are playing with house money. More significantly, they've been hot (which may be what got them into the playoffs in the first place) and they've been playing instead of sitting around.
On the surface, it seems like a no-brainer. Of course you want to win the division, get a top-two seed and not have to worry about playing an extra best-of-three round just to get to the Division Series. Plus, it lets you set up your pitching, guys who might be banged up get a few days off, you get to stay at home, etc. Meanwhile, your Division Series opponent has to use at least its top two starters before traveling to your ballpark for Game 1 with at most two days between the end of the Wild Card Series and the start of the Division Series.
However, five days is also a lot of time to sit around. Especially when you're in such a routine of playing virtually every day for the previous six months. Now, you've just got to wait. Teams have tried various things to stay loose and ready. The most common approach seems to be open workouts or simulated games. Those may help the players stay somewhat fresh, but they don't come anywhere close to the atmosphere or intensity of a playoff game. That's something you can't replicate. And simulated games are just that. Simulated.
There's also the question of whether being able to line up your pitching is necessarily a good thing. Depending on when a pitcher's last start of the regular season is, they're going an extended period without facing hitters in a live game situation. It's similar to figuring out your rotation after the All*Star Break so that everybody gets roughly the same number of days between starts. But, inevitably, just like after the All*Star Break, at least one pitcher's gonna have an extended break, which could be good...or could be the exact opposite.
Some pitchers have their routine and like going out there every fifth day. Anything to mess with that could impact their performance. We saw that with Gerrit Cole in Game 1 against the Royals. It doesn't just apply to starters, either. How often have we seen a reliever who hasn't pitched in a while come into a game and have absolutely no control?
So, there are valid points on each side of the rest vs. rust argument. It really is simply a matter of preference. Although, I still think teams would much rather get the bye and have those extra few days to get ready for the Division Series. And I agree that it's way too early to come to a consensus one way or the other in the rest vs. rust debate. Especially because something just as significant has been in play in the National League, and I don't think enough people have acknowledged it.
Every National League Division Series since 2022 (the first year of this format) has pitted two teams from the same division against each other. The Dodgers lost to NL West rivals San Diego (2022) and Arizona (2023), and are playing the Padres again this year. The Phillies, meanwhile, beat the Braves twice before losing to the Mets this season. (Side note: the NL Central hasn't won a playoff series since the Cardinals in 2019.)
With division rivals brings familiarity. You play your division foes more than anybody else, so they know you better than anybody. That, I think, has played a huge factor in these NLDS upsets over the past three seasons. The division winner might be the "better" team (and certainly was over the course of 162 games), but that doesn't matter nearly as much when you're facing an opponent that you see so often. Especially in a best-of-five series where all they need to do is win one of those first two road games to suddenly put the division champion on the ropes.
It's also important to note the parity around baseball over the past several years. There wasn't a single 100-win team in the Majors this season, and Arizona missed the playoffs despite finishing 89-73. So, there really isn't that much separating those top two seeds in each league with the teams seeded 3-6. That, frankly, has just as much to do with recent Division Series results as anything else. Who cares if you're the best team over 162 games? You need to have the best team for a month-long tournament.
As long as MLB continues with the 12-team playoff format, the rest vs. rust debate will continue. Especially if the top two seeds keep losing in the Division Series. But trying to read into it is foolish. Because there are a number of possible factors at play. And, regardless, they're not changing it anytime soon (unless they add more teams), so those higher-seeded teams need to figure it out. Once they do, the debate will stop.
Sunday, October 6, 2024
NFL 2024 (Week 5)
How bad have my picks been the last three weeks? So bad that I've already been eliminated from my Survival league. I was eliminated in Week 4 in a three strikes league...and I won in Week 1! So, basically what I'm saying is that I have no idea what's going on the NFL! Maybe this week I can finally start to get back on track after three subpar weeks in a row. Although, if Thursday night is any indication, maybe not.
Thursday Night: Tampa Bay (Loss)
Jets (2-2) vs Vikings (4-0): Minnesota-The fans in London are actually treated with a pretty good matchup for their first game of the year. I'm ready to adjust my take on both of these teams. Minnesota's one of two remaining undefeated teams, and their wins have been impressive, too. The Jets, meanwhile, haven't been what I expected either. I thought they would be much better than they've looked so far. Of course, there's still time. And, knowing my luck, they're gonna blow the Vikings out.
Panthers (1-3) at Bears (2-2): Chicago-Swapping the No. 1 pick in 2023 has certainly worked out better for the Bears than the Panthers. Bryce Young has been benched, and the Panthers' offense has looked much better in two games under Andy Dalton. Chicago, meanwhile, actually has an offense now, and it has made quite a difference. The Bears beat the Rams last week and are also better than the Panthers, so expect them to make it two in a row.
Ravens (2-2) at Bengals (1-3): Baltimore-It's been a tough go of it so far for everybody in the AFC North except for the Steelers. Although, both the Ravens and Bengals got a win last week when they really needed one. Baltimore's was impressive, too. They dominated the Bills from start to finish on Monday night. A win here, and they're right back on track. That would also pretty much sink Cincinnati, so expect the Bengals to come out like their season depends on it.
Dolphins (1-3) at Patriots (1-3): New England-Miami hasn't had a lead through four games this season. The Dolphins' only win came on a last-second field goal against Jacksonville. When they gave that stat at the end of the game on Monday, I was just like "Wow!" It really sums up Miami's season in a nutshell, too. When Brady was in New England, they were the team that always gave the Patriots trouble. Now, it's a chance for the Patriots to extend the Dolphins' streak to five games without a lead.
Browns (1-3) at Commanders (3-1): Washington-Are the Commanders actually good?! It looks like they've finally got a keeper at quarterback in Chase Daniels, who's the clear Rookie of the Year frontrunner (if not an MVP candidate) through the first quarter of the season. And playing Washington is suddenly no longer a guaranteed win. In fact, the Commanders currently lead the NFC East. Cleveland badly needs a win, but I'm not sure they get it here.
Colts (2-2) at Jaguars (0-4): Indianapolis-Remember the middle of last season when we were all talking about how good Jacksonville was? It seems like such a long time ago, doesn't it? Now we're back to the Jaguars of old, sitting at 0-4 as the only winless team in the league. Can they get their first win of the year against Indianapolis? Or will the Colts follow up their victory over the Steelers with a division win?
Bills (3-1) at Texans (3-1): Buffalo-Buffalo losing wasn't the shocking thing last week. They were playing a good Ravens team that needed a win badly. It's how they were beaten so soundly that was the surprise. This week, they've got another road game against a division winner from last season. How will they bounce back? I don't see Josh Allen having two bad games in a row, so probably just fine.
Raiders (2-2) at Broncos (2-2): Denver-When Sean Payton took over in Denver, he said to give it time. That patience is finally being rewarded. And the Broncos' defense is really the reason why. In their last three games, they've given up a total of 29 points. Sure, their offense hasn't been great, only scoring 39 in those same three games. But, they've won two of them. Can they make it three against their hated rivals from Las Vegas?
Cardinals (1-3) at 49ers (2-2): San Francisco-You put the 49ers back in their own stadium, and suddenly they look like the 49ers again. They've played two home games this season, won them both, and scored over 30 points each time. Arizona, meanwhile, gave up 42 last week against Washington. This is a game San Francisco should win.
Packers (2-2) at Rams (1-3): Green Bay-Is there a team in the NFC that needs a win more than the Rams? They're a very confusing team, too. Because they almost (and should've) won their opener in Detroit, then got their butts kicked in Arizona, then beat San Francisco before scoring just 18 points in Chicago. Are they good or not? With the Packers, we know what we're getting. Even last week, they easily could've won that game had a couple things gone their way. If those things do go their way this week, I can see them pulling it out.
Giants (1-3) at Seahawks (3-1): Seattle-Last Monday, the Seahawks suffered their first loss of the season, as Detroit emphatically made a statement and scored seemingly at will on Seattle's defense. The ease with which the Lions did it was surprising for sure. The good news for the Seahawks is that this week they play the Giants. Which means they'll have plenty of opportunity to get back into their offensive groove.
Cowboys (2-2) at Steelers (3-1): Dallas-Somehow, Dallas and Pittsburgh haven't met in a regular season primetime game since 1980. They've obviously played in a Super Bowl, and I know they don't play in the regular season that often. But, you'd figure that's exactly why they'd get a Monday or Sunday night game. Because they're two of the more popular teams in the league and they don't play each other often. Anyway, the result of this game really depends on which Cowboys team shows up. It's also weird how Dallas is 2-0 on the road and 0-2 at home. Since this one's on the road, I'm going with the Week 1 & 4 Cowboys, not the Week 2 & 3 Cowboys.
Saints (2-2) at Chiefs (4-0): Kansas City-Seven, one, five and seven. Those are the margins of victory in each of Kansas City's four games this season. The most important number, though, is 4-0. They haven't played their best football yet, and they're still one of two undefeated teams left. Just imagine when they get rolling! Now, they'll probably have a bad game in them at some point. I don't think it'll be this week, though.
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 34-31
Saturday, October 5, 2024
2024-25 NHL, Part II (West)
We already knew before last season that Connor McDavid is the best player in the NHL. It isn't even particularly close. Then last season, he won the Conn Smythe Trophy despite the fact that Edmonton lost the Stanley Cup Final (if we're being honest, it probably should've been Bobrovsky). However, the Oilers losing meant that McDavid didn't do what so many others before him have done...captain his team to the Cup. Until he does that, he's not in the same category as Crosby and Ovechkin. When and if he does, though, he's right up there with Gretzky and Messier as true Edmonton legends.
The chances of that happening are actually pretty good. Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto are really the only three teams capable of ending Canada's 31-year Stanley Cup drought. And the Oilers are among the handful of Western Conference teams that look like legitimate Cup contenders. In fact, I only count five: Edmonton, Vancouver, Vegas, Colorado and Dallas.
Unlike in the East, where there's parity at the top and only three truly "bad' teams (Columbus, Montreal and Ottawa), the West only has those five elite teams and a whole bunch at the bottom. San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago and Utah likely won't come anywhere near the playoffs. Although, the Sharks now have Macklin Celebrini, who they hope will turn in a rookie season similar to Connor Bedard's. So, there may be hope for both the Sharks and Blackhawks.
With only a handful of teams at the top and a handful at the bottom, that makes for a very crowded middle in the Western Conference. Which should lead to a pretty intense battle for the remaining playoff spots. The Kings, Predators and Jets probably have the advantage for those, but I'm not counting out Minnesota or Seattle. And I really have no idea what to expect from St. Louis or Calgary! So, like I said, the competition in the middle of the Western Conference should be pretty good.
Talent-wise, the Colorado Avalanche are right there among the best teams in the entire league. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are truly elite. If they can get their captain Gabriel Landeskog back after missing pretty much all of last season with an injury, that just makes them that much deeper. A full-strength Avalanche team will be very difficult to beat. Even if they aren't at full strength, it's not exactly an easy task.
Should the Avalanche stumble at all, the Dallas Stars are right there waiting to take advantage. They've got nearly as much talent as Colorado and a top-notch goalie in Jake Oettinger. Speaking of top-notch goalies, there are few better than Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets. It's been well-established that you can win in the playoffs simply by riding a hot goalie. Which is why I'm not gonna count the Jets out should they get to the playoffs. And, while they're not at Dallas or Colorado's level, they're certainly one of the eight best teams in the West.
That's also why I can't count out the Nashville Predators, either. The Predators have built a pretty solid group in front of Juuse Saros, bringing in Stanley Cup champions Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos to join the likes of Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Ryan O'Reilly. Nashville definitely looks like a sleeper team.
Then there's the Minnesota Wild. The Wild still have their big guns, so they won't exactly surprise anybody. And they've got a Hall of Fame goalie in Marc-Andre Fleury, who's at the tail end of his career, but still. The St. Louis Blues, meanwhile, simply don't have enough pieces to keep pace with the top teams in the Central Division. That's not to say the Blues can't contend for a playoff spot since they absolutely can. It's just that they need a lot of things to go right and have some things go wrong for everybody else in order to make that happen.
Year 2 with Connor Bedard should be much better for the Chicago Blackhawks than Year 1 was. Slowly but surely, they're building a competent team again. And not only are they no longer the worst team in Chicago (congratulations, White Sox), they aren't the worst team in the division anymore, either. That honor belongs to the Utah Hockey Club. The artists formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes should benefit from knowing that their franchise finally has some stability. Hopefully once the novelty wears off, they give the people of Salt Lake City a reason to keep coming to games.
Your best bet to see a Canadian team finally lift the Cup for the first time since 1993 is in the Pacific Division. I'd even argue that the two best teams in that division come from Western Canada. We'll start with the obvious one, the defending Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers. That ridiculous collection of talent in Edmonton (they're so much more than just McDavid and Draisaitl) finally broke through and got to the Final last season. Can they pull a Panthers and follow up a Final loss with a Final win?
Not if the Vancouver Canucks have anything to say about it. Vancouver's starting six (top line, top defensive pair, goalie) ranks among the very best in the game. Their depth is the question, which is why I have them slightly below the Oilers in the Pacific. Ranking slightly below the Canucks are the Vegas Golden Knights. They've only missed the playoffs once in franchise history. Don't expect them to miss this season. The Knights are like Nashville in that they simply have too much talent on the roster.
After that, it drops off considerably. I'd have to say the next-most-likely Pacific Division team to make the playoffs is the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings made a big-time upgrade in goal, swapping Cam Talbot for Cup winner Darcy Kuemper. While they aren't one of the top teams in the West by any means, the Kings could easily do what Kuemper's team last season (Washington) did and sneak into the playoffs.
It's crazy to think that the Seattle Kraken are in their fourth season already, isn't it? I'd say Seattle has an outside shot at the playoffs, but wouldn't be considered a favorite to get there. The Kraken didn't make it last year and didn't really do much in the offseason to increase their chances of making it this season. Neither did the Calgary Flames, who'll be feeling the loss of Johnny Gaudreau. Gaudreau had obviously left the Flames and was playing for Columbus, but he spent most of his career in Calgary, so you know they're impacted just as much. Those should be two emotional games when the Flames play the Blue Jackets.
Outside of the Kings, hockey in California hasn't been great for the past few seasons. Thing shouldn't be much different in 2024-25. The San Jose Sharks were terrible last season, but made improvements and are slightly less bad. I can't really say the same for the Anaheim Ducks, though. While I think Columbus and Utah are probably the two worst teams in the league, Anaheim isn't too far ahead. The Ducks are closer to finishing with the fewest points in the NHL than they are to making the playoffs.
So, while the competition in the middle of the West for the three remaining playoff berths should be fierce, I do think Nashville and Winnipeg stand out as favorites for two of them. The last spot should come down to LA and Minnesota. I'm giving the edge ever so slightly to the Kings, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see five playoff teams out of the Central Division.
As hesitant as I am to make a preseason Stanley Cup pick, I suppose it's appropriate that I make one. In the East, I think the Rangers use the memory of getting so close last year as motivation. In the West, I'm going with Colorado. A healthy Avalanche team is arguably the best in hockey. Which is why they're getting the nod as my Stanley Cup pick.
Friday, October 4, 2024
2024-25 NHL, Part I (East)
It feels like the 2023-24 NHL season just ended, yet here we are, ready to start the 2024-25 campaign. There was some encouraging NHL news, too, with the announcement that they're going to get work on the new CBA right after the New Year, well before the current agreement expires. They're also discussing going to an 84-game schedule, which would bring back those two division games everybody lost for Seattle. The players and owners both seem to be on board with that plan, so I'd say the odds of it happening are pretty good.
There was also the tragic NHL news from the summer that a lot of us are still trying to wrap our heads around. The passing of Johnny Gaudreau was shocking and heartbreaking on so many levels. Although, it was also so great to see the NHL community come together and support his family during this terrible time. The Oilers posted a picture of him playing against them while he was with the Flames...and held off on announcing Leon Draisaitl's extension. The entire Blue Jackets team attended his daughter's birthday party. EA Sports kept him in the NHL video game. And those are just some examples of everyone around the NHL stepping up for one of their own.
Columbus will do right by Gaudreau's family and honor his contract. He was also the Blue Jackets' highest-paid player, which will put them under the salary floor this season. There's no way they'd be able to get back above it, especially this close to the start of the season, so the NHL granted them an exemption that will allow them to stay under the floor as long as they need (which will likely be at least all season). Obviously not a situation anybody wants to be in, but the special circumstances warrant it.
That unfortunate note will leave a bit of a dark cloud over this entire season. Every team will wear a special logo on their helmets honoring Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew, who was also killed in the same accident. I'd also love to see him receiving an honorary selection to the U.S. team for the Four Nations Face-Off that will replace the All*Star Game in February.
I have a feeling that this will be an emotional season across the board. The loss of Johnny & Matthew Gaudreau hit hard. But there's still a season to be played, and I wouldn't be surprised if the memory of a friend, teammate and all-around good guy serves as an inspiration throughout it. That obviously won't do a damn thing to make up for the loss, but it's still heartening to know that Johnny Gaudreau will be remembered.
As for how this season will play out, will the Prince of Wales Trophy finally leave the State of Florida for the first time in six years? After three straight Eastern Conference titles by the Lightning, the Panthers have won the last two, capped by lifting the Cup last season. Can they do it again? They've got everybody back and play a style that wears you down, so it wouldn't surprise me. But there are so many other good teams in the East that a repeat will be a challenge.
Since I'm talking about good teams in the East, I might as well start with the defending champion Florida Panthers. They'll be very good again. And, as they've shown over the last two years, their style is built for the playoffs. I just wonder if Edmonton gave teams the blueprint on how to play against it during Games 4-6 of the Stanley Cup Final. Even Paul Maurice has admitted that it doesn't work for everyone and you need the buy-in. Still, you've got to think that they'll, at the very least, return to the postseason.
For the last few years, the Atlantic Division has basically been split in two. There's that top tier of Florida, Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto, and that bottom half of Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa and Montreal. This season should be more of the same.
Of those other three top teams, the Boston Bruins are the biggest question mark. They stopped the two-goalie thing, traded Linus Ullmark and made Jeremy Swayman the man...only for Swayman to hold out. When he decides to sign could have a big bearing on the Bruins' season. The Toronto Maple Leafs will likely do the same thing they do every year. They'll have a great regular season, then lose Game 7 of the first round in the playoffs. As for the Tampa Bay Lightning, they're probably the most likely team in that group to fall back towards the pack.
In that pack is the Detroit Red Wings, who may see the fruits of their rebuild. I definitely think the Red Wings will be contenders for one of the wild cards, and they very well could get it. The Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens will not. The Sabres have the longest active playoff drought in the four major men's professional sports. That streak should continue. Ottawa is better, but still has a long way to go and isn't as good as the top teams in the division, so I don't see how the Senators can contend for a playoff spot. The Canadiens, meanwhile, are just a mess. This is one of the NHL's bedrock franchises, too.
The Metropolitan Division, meanwhile, is a two-horse race at the top. And, frankly, there isn't much that separates them. That middle group has four teams, all of which I can see either making the playoffs or finishing way out of it. The margin really is that tight. Which should actually make for a pretty good race for that third-place playoff spot out of the division, as well as that second Eastern Conference wild card.
Lumping the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes together makes sense because they'll likely be 1-2 in the Metropolitan Division in either order. Last season, it came down to the wire, with the Rangers winning the division and the President's Trophy. They then broke the President's Trophy jinx somewhat by getting to the Eastern Conference Final, where they were outplayed and worn down by the Panthers. That easily could've been Carolina, though. Just like last season, I expect the battle for first place in the Atlantic to be neck-and-neck.
Two teams from the middle group really stand out. Those are the New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils. The Islanders had a great stretch run last season that got them into the playoffs, and I think they are the third-best team in the Metro. Plus, Mathew Barzal is one of the most talented players in the league. Then there are the Devils, who finished second in the division in 2023 before missing the playoffs last year. They've got the Hughes brothers, so sneaking back into the playoff mix doesn't seem that far-fetched.
Last year, the Washington Capitals made the playoffs as the second wild card. I'm still not sure how. And they were promptly swept by the Rangers. If they're healthy this season (which they were not last year, which makes their reaching the playoffs even more impressive), them getting back wouldn't be nearly as much of a surprise. The Pittsburgh Penguins, meanwhile, are trying to get one last gasp out of the Crosby-Malkin Era. It's been a good run in Pittsburgh, but they're no longer one of the most talented teams.
A team that I find really intriguing is the Philadelphia Flyers. I legitimately have no idea how good the Flyers are. John Tortorella is their coach and he's always got something up his sleeve. Talent-wise, they're towards the bottom of the division. But with Tortorella, it's not crazy to think he can pull a playoff run out of these guys. Even before the Gaudreau tragedy, it was poised to be a long year for the Columbus Blue Jackets. This season will be rough for them on multiple levels.
Even with the depth of quality teams in the Eastern Conference, I'm not expecting there to be much playoff turnover. In fact, I think seven of the eight teams that made it last year. The only exception is the Capitals, who I'm replacing with Detroit. Although, if you wanted to give the Devils that spot instead of the Red Wings, you wouldn't get much of an argument from me. Because, just as it's close between the top teams in each division, the fight for the wild card positions will be a good, intense one between about five different teams...likely for just one spot.