Judge or Raleigh

Back in 2012, there was a heated debate about who should win AL MVP--Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout.  The Trout camp's main argument was "his WAR is so much better," while the Miggy camp had the fact that Cabrera won the Triple Crown in their favor.  The Tigers also won the pennant in 2012, while the Angels missed the playoffs (as they have in all but one season during Trout's career).  In the end, it wasn't even close.  Cabrera got 22 of the 28 first-place votes and easily won MVP honors.

It was a similar situation in 2022, when Aaron Judge set the AL home run record, but there was still the "Shohei Ohtani's WAR" group.  That MVP vote was an even bigger blowout.  Ohtani got only two first-place votes--from the two Angels representatives (who, it should be noted, were the ones accusing other voters of being biased)!  Judge unanimously won his second MVP last season, and this year he could win his third...unless Cal Raleigh wins it.

Judge and Raleigh have been the two best players in baseball this season.  If they played in opposite leagues, there's no question that they'd both be the MVP.  But, since they're both in the American League, only one can win and the other will have to settle for being First Team All-MLB.  And this time, unlike Judge's first two MVP campaigns, I don't think he's a lock.  In fact, I have no idea who'll end up winning.  The vote figures to be thisclose.

ESPN.com's Jeff Passan surveyed players a few weeks ago, and the players overwhelmingly chose Judge.  The players don't vote for the postseason awards.  The writers do.  And the writers are far less certain Judge is the MVP.  That doesn't mean he won't win.  It just means Raleigh has plenty of support.  Which he should.

A generational talent who's right smack in the middle of his prime, Judge will win his first batting title this season.  He's also hit 50 home runs for the fourth time, becoming just the fourth player ever with four 50-home run seasons.  Judge also leads the Majors in slugging, on-base percentage and OPS, and he's the American League leader in runs scored.  This is despite missing 10 games due to an injury to his throwing arm, then being limited to DH duty after he returned.

Raleigh, meanwhile, is having a historic season.  He has 60 home runs.  He's just the seventh player in Major League history to hit that many in a season.  It's the record for a catcher and the record for a switch-hitter.  Raleigh is also the American League leader in RBIs while playing 157 games, 121 of them as the starting catcher.  For a team that won its first division title in 24 years.

The biggest argument for Raleigh is the home runs.  There's no denying that it's a staggering total.  Especially for a catcher.  Hitting 60 home runs doesn't guarantee you the MVP, though.  In fact, of the nine previous 60-HR seasons, only four of them resulted in an MVP.  In 1998, when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa had their epic battle, it was McGwire who set the record, but Sosa who was the NL MVP.  That stat comes with an asterisk, though, since Babe Ruth wasn't eligible for AL MVP in 1927 because they had a stupid rule where you couldn't be MVP more than once at the time.  (The craziest stat in baseball history, BTW, is how Sammy Sosa has three 60-home run seasons, a Major League record, yet NEVER led the league in homers!)

He's so much more than just the homers, though.  The fact that Raleigh is doing all this while playing catcher can't be discounted.  Catchers aren't supposed to put up this type of offensive numbers.  Especially not to this degree.  And the fact that he's been able to keep it up all season while playing a premium defensive position can't be discounted.  If Ohtani can get credit for doing what he does offensively while pitching, it stands to reason that Raleigh should get the same consideration for catching.  (Plus, Big Dumper is one of the best nicknames in sports!)

Team success should be a factor, too.  It's why it's called Most Valuable Player instead of Player of the Year.  The value he brings to his team matters.  We know the value Judge brings to the Yankees.  His importance was especially felt during his absence.  But the Yankees would still be a playoff team without Judge.  Can you say the same about the Mariners without Raleigh?  He's the biggest reason why they won their first AL West title since 2001 and have a very realistic chance at their first-ever World Series appearance.

Since both the Yankees and Mariners will make the playoffs, the team success thing is really kind of a wash.  Which means it'll come down to the other numbers.  Raleigh obviously has the advantage in home runs and RBIs.  Judge has the head-to-head lead in everything else.  By a lot.  Which swings the pendulum back on Judge's side.  Still, though, I don't think it's a lock for either player.  This isn't like last year where Bobby Witt Jr. was clearly going to finish second in MVP voting.  Judge and Raleigh should be 1-2 on all 30 ballots, but in which order?  That could decide who gets it.

I'm obviously a Yankees fan and a Judge fan.  But even I'm torn about it.  Judge is having another tremendous year.  If not for what Raleigh's doing, he'd be a lock for his second straight MVP and third in the last four seasons.  But Raleigh is doing what he's doing.  And what he's doing, from the catcher position, is so impressive that I think I'm actually leaning in that direction.

There's another possible factor that could come into play here, and it'll be very interesting to see if it does.  Will Raleigh benefit from Judge fatigue?  Has Aaron Judge become so exceptional that his "average" season would still be considered outstanding for somebody else?  And, voters who may not want to vote for Judge actually have somebody else they can vote for without it looking suspicious.  Cal Raleigh gives them an excuse not to vote for Aaron Judge.

That argument goes both ways, however.  I wouldn't necessarily categorize it as "Judge fatigue" as much as I'd consider it "spreading the wealth."  Judge has already won two MVPs and could easily win a few more if he keeps doing what he's doing.  Especially now that Ohtani is in the National League.  Cal Raleigh is having a career year.  He may never put up numbers like this again.  So, why not take the opportunity to reward that and give the MVP to someone new in the process?  I'm not saying this is what'll happen.  But I'm also not saying there's anything wrong with that thought process.

When MLB awards season hits in November, AL MVP will be the award people are most interested in.  Because it really could go either way.  An argument can be made for Judge.  An argument can be made for Raleigh.  I don't envy the voters who'll have to make that decision.  Because they both deserve to win AL MVP this season.