Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Best Games of 2024

For a while, my last post of the year was always a countdown of the best games of the year.  I had the number of games correspond to the year, which was easy in 2010 & 2011, but got incrementally harder as a game needed to be added to the list each year.  Then 2020 happened and I moved away from it in the COVID-impacted year.  So, it's been a while since I've gone my year-end top games list.

When I started thinking about how I wanted to end 2024, though, I couldn't help but immediately think of all the incredible games that we saw this year.  It started on literally the first day of 2024 when Michigan and Alabama met in that epic Rose Bowl.  There was the longest Super Bowl ever, Catlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers in the Women's Final Four, more moments in Paris than I can count, and so much more!  (As well as some not-so-memorable games.  NBA All-Star Game, anyone?)

As a result, I made a decision to bring the year-end "Games of the Year" list back.  Although, for my own sanity, I'm limiting it to 10.  I've also decided not to rank them 1-10.  Instead, I'll list them chronologically and choose only a top game at the end.  I'm also sure that there are some games I missed, but if I can't immediately remember them, they probably weren't all that memorable, were they?

January 1: Rose Bowl (Michigan vs. Alabama)-Alabama's selection over Florida State as the final team in the last four-team College Football Playoff was controversial, but sure proved to be the right call.  The back-and-forth affair was an absolute classic, with each team matching the other after every score.  Michigan tied it with 1:34 left in the fourth quarter, then scored a touchdown in overtime before stopping Alabama on 4th & Goal from the Michigan 3 to win, 27-20, before defeating Washington for the National Championship a week later.  These two ended 2024 the same way they began it...by facing each other in a bowl game.

January 28: Australian Open Men's Final (Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev)-
In the semifinals, Sinner beat Novak Djokovic, snapping Djokovic's 33-match winning streak in Australia.  In the final, he dropped the first two sets before rallying to win, 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 after three hours and 45 minutes.  It was Sinner's first Grand Slam title and just the start of an incredible 2024 that would also see him win the US Open and ATP Finals, lead Italy to the Davis Cup, and finish as the year-end No. 1.

February 11: Super Bowl LVIII (Chiefs vs. 49ers)-The Chiefs played the 49ers in the Super Bowl for the second time in four years.  And for the second time in four years, Kansas City won a classic.  San Francisco took a 19-16 lead with 1:53 left.  The Chiefs kicked the game-tying field goal with three seconds remaining, sending the Super Bowl into overtime for just the second time in history.  The 49ers got the ball first in OT and kicked a field goal, then with three seconds left in the fifth quarter, Patrick Mahomes connected with Mecole Hardman for a 3-yard TD pass to give the Chiefs their second consecutive Lombardi Trophy, 25-22.

February 18: NHL Stadium Series (Rangers vs. Islanders)-I'm a little biased here since I was at this one, but it was still legitimately a great game.  Of course, I didn't think so at first when the Islanders jumped out to a 4-1 lead early in the second period.  It was 5-3 with five minutes left when my man Scott Mayfield took two penalties, the Rangers scored on both power plays to tie it, then Artemi Panarin scored 10 seconds into overtime to win it, 6-5.  My brother-in-law and nephew didn't agree, but I found the final five minutes much more enjoyable than the first 55.

April 5: Women's Final Four (Iowa vs. UConn)-This game set a record (that would be broken two days later in the Championship Game) with 14.2 million TV viewers (which was double that of the first semifinal between South Carolina and NC State).  They tuned in to see Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers, the two biggest stars in women's college basketball last season, and they ended up seeing a great game that Clark sealed with a free throw to send Iowa into its second straight National Championship Game, 71-69.

August 3: Olympic Mixed 4x400 Relay Final-If you haven't seen this race, do yourself a favor and go watch it on YouTube (or I think it's still on Peacock, too).  The United States set a world record in the prelims and had the lead with 100 meters left in the final.  The Netherlands had Femke Bol, though.  The star 400-meter hurdler ran a blistering anchor leg to go from fourth place to the gold medal.  For all the thrilling track races there were in Paris, this one might've been the most exciting.

August 11: Olympic Women's Basketball Gold Medal Game (USA vs. France)-What a way to bring down the curtain on the Paris Games!  In literally the last event of the Olympics, the United States and France played an outstanding women's basketball gold medal game!  The U.S. hasn't lost an Olympic women's basketball game in 32 years, but France gave them everything they could handle and then some!  In front of a partisan sellout crowd, they played an absolute classic that featured 11 ties and six lead changes.  It was 65-64 when Kahleah Copper made two free throws with three seconds left.  Gabby Williams drove down and made a jumper for France as time expired, but her foot was clearly inside the three-point line and the U.S. held on, 67-66.

August 25: Little League World Series Championship Game (Florida vs. Chinese Taipei)-Chinese Taipei had a 1-0 lead going to the bottom of the sixth in the six-inning game.  Florida tied it on a two-out single when the Taiwanese pitcher inexplicably cut off the throw from left and tried to get the out at third, letting the tying run score without a throw.  (I know these kids are 12, but, still, poor baseball IQ.)  Then in the bottom of the eighth, there was the bunt heard round the world.  Florida tried bunting the automatic runner over, the pitcher and first baseman both charged, so there was no one at first to receive the throw.  The winning run scored on the error.

September 30: Mets-Braves Doubleheader, Game 1-
All of the circumstances leading to this doubleheader being played the day after the regular season ended were crazy enough.  Then the two games were played!  The teams knew that they'd both make the playoffs with a split, and the Braves took a 3-0 lead into the eighth inning of Game 1.  The Mets put up a six-spot, only for Atlanta to get four in the bottom of the eighth!  In the top of the ninth, Francisco Lindor hit a two-run homer before Edwin Diaz (who had already blown the save) closed out the 8-7 win that sent the Mets back to Milwaukee (where they had just been!) for the Wild Card Series.

October 20: WNBA Finals, Game 5 (Liberty vs. Lynx)-One of the biggest sports stories of 2024 was how the WNBA, in its 28th season of existence, finally was accepted by mainstream America.  The league's newfound fans enjoyed an excellent WNBA Finals, capped by an outstanding winner-take-all Game 5.  Minnesota led by as many as 12 points in the first half and was up by seven at halftime.  The Liberty battled back and took the lead, but the Lynx went back in front late.  A controversial foul sent Breanna Stewart to the line with 5.2 seconds left and she made both free throws to send the game to overtime, where the Liberty pulled away for a 67-62 victory and their first-ever WNBA championship.

See why I didn't rank them from 1-10?  All of these games were incredible!  If I had to select just one to be the 2024 Game of the Year, though, I think it would have to be the Rose Bowl.  It was a very close call, and it came on literally the first day of the year.  But it set the stage for the tremendous sports year that was to come!

Sunday, December 29, 2024

2024 Male Athlete of the Year: Leon Marchand

Shohei Ohtani did Shohei Ohtani things again in 2024.  His first season with the Dodgers was arguably the best offensive season of his career, and he capped the year by becoming a World Series champion for the first time.  The only thing he didn't do was pitch, which we can expect to return to his resume in 2025.  So, it should be a given that Ohtani's the Joe Brackets Male Athlete of the Year once again, right?  Wrong!

Ohtani is great.  He's a once-in-a-lifetime talent who does things on a baseball field that are truly remarkable.  As long as he continues to do them, he'll he in the Athlete of the Year conversation every year.  So why doesn't he get the nod then?  Because there's someone else who took the entire world by storm while bringing pride to his nation on the grandest stage.

During his speech at the Closing Ceremony of the Paris Olympics, Tony Estanguet, the President of the organizing committee said something that I'll never forget.  "We wanted to be inspired.  We got Leon Marchand."  Marchand wasn't just the swimming star of the Paris Games, he was the star!  And the star of the Games was from the host nation! 

The noise at Paris Le Defense Arena was deafening throughout the swimming competition!  And it only got louder as the Olympics progressed, especially when Marchand, their national hero, swam.  And their national pride was on full display every time they got to sing "La Marseillaise" during a Leon Marchand medal ceremony.  The entire venue was singing the national anthem!  I haven't seen anything like it at an Olympics since Virtue & Moir in Vancouver.

Marchand was supposed to be the star of the Paris Games too!  Just imagine how much pressure he must've been under.  The weight of those expectations.  A Frenchman at an Olympics in France.  He didn't just meet those expectations.  He exceeded them.  And his star only grew with each gold medal.

On July 28, the second night of the Olympics, Marchand set an Olympic record in the 400 IM, winning gold by more the six seconds.  Three nights later, he did something that hadn't been done in 48 years.  Marchand won gold in the 200 butterfly, setting another Olympic record.  There was roughly 90 minutes until the final of the 200 breaststroke.  Marchand set another Olympic record enroute to his second individual gold of the night (and third of the Olympics).

Then, on August 2, he won a fourth gold in the 200 IM, swimming, you guessed it, an Olympic-record time.  It made Marchand the first French Olympian EVER to win four gold medals at the same Games.  And he did it in his hometown!  Marchand wasn't done yet, though.  Olympic swimming always ends with the medley relay.  He swam the breaststroke leg for the French team, and they ended up on the podium with the bronze.  Five events, five medals (four of them gold).  The most decorated Olympian in Paris.

He became just the third male swimmer in history to win four individual gold medals at the same Olympics.  The names he joined?  Only two of the sport's all-time legends.  Mark Spitz and Michael Phelps.  Marchand had already been dubbed "the next Phelps" after his exploits at the 2022 & 2023 World Championships, as well as during his NCAA career at Arizona State (where he's coached by Phelps' coach, Bob Bowman).  Phelps was among the people who's anointed Marchand as his successor.

Just as Spitz was honored to pass the torch to Phelps, no one is prouder of the Phelps-Marchand comparison than Michael Phelps.  Phelps was in Paris doing some work for NBC and attended some of Marchand's races.  When he wasn't at the pool, he was in the studio watching with Mike Tirico.  After the race, they'd cut to "Phelps Cam" and show his live reaction.  He couldn't have been more excited!  Michael Phelps is the biggest Leon Marchand fan out there!

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Leon Marchand is his age.  He's all of 22.  He wasn't even alive yet when Phelps made his Olympic debut in Sydney and was six when Phelps went 8-for-8 in Beijing.  Then you add in the fact that he had the weight of a nation on him in what will be the only home Olympics of his lifetime.  And he more than lived up to the hype.  He inspired a nation.  I don't want to give Leon Marchand all the credit for the success of the Paris Games, but the hometown hero starring during the opening week sure didn't hurt!

That's something Phelps mentioned in his praise of Marchand.  He (Phelps) never got the chance to swim in a home Olympics.  It's obviously got to be the coolest experience of any athlete's career.  But the pressure that comes with it also must be immense.  Especially when the expectations are as high as they were for Marchand.  To come through.  At home.  On the biggest stage.  It's something Marchand and everyone who watched him will never forget.

Every Olympics has that one athlete or one moment that will be forever tied to those Games.  Cathy Freeman in Sydney.  Michael Phelps in Beijing.  Usain Bolt in London.  Simone Biles in Rio.  For all the stars who competed in Paris, history will remember the 2024 Games as the Olympics of Leon Marchand.

At the Closing Ceremony, Marchand wasn't just acknowledged.  He had an active, important role.  Since the Olympic cauldron was located outside the Stade de France in the Tuileries Garden, Marchand took the flame, carried it in a lantern and brought it to the stadium so it could be extinguished.  The star of the Paris Olympic Games was the steward of the Olympic flame, symbolically transferring it from Paris to Los Angeles, where he'll likely again star in 2028.  Except next time, it won't be at home.

So, will all due respect to Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mahomes, Jannik Sinner and all those who had a memorable 2024, the choice for Male Athlete of the Year is clear.  The Olympics were in Paris.  A Parisian was the star.  Leon Marchand's 2024 will not soon be forgotten.  That's why he's the 2024 Joe Brackets Male Athlete of the Year.

Friday, December 27, 2024

2024 Female Athlete of the Year: Caitlin Clark

When I first started thinking about my Joe Brackets Athletes of the Year earlier this month, I was focused mainly on athletes who appeared in Paris.  That's typically what happens in an Olympic year, when the Olympics take center stage for two and a half weeks.  And there were plenty of women who did their thing in Paris who'd be plenty worthy of the honor.  Gabby Thomas and Simone Biles are two who immediately come to mind.

The more I thought about it, though, I kept coming back to a woman who wasn't in Paris, a point that was controversial in and of itself and led to plenty of discussion.  As it turned out, during the Olympics was seemingly the only time all year when we weren't talking about her.  That's just one of the many reasons why, for the first time ever, I'm awarding the Joe Brackets Female Athlete of the Year to the same person in back-to-back years.  The 2024 Joe Brackets Female Athlete of the Year is none other than Caitlin Clark.

Caitlin Clark's impact goes far beyond what she's done on the basketball court.  Her basketball talent made it all possible, of course.  But she's far more than a basketball player.  It's because of Caitlin Clark that the WNBA exploded in popularity in 2024...popularity that only figures to continue to grow!

Indiana averaged just over 4,000 fans a game in 2023.  In 2024, more than 300,000 people attended Fever games.  They regularly sold out the 17,000-seat Gainsbridge Fieldhouse.  The "Caitlin Clark Effect" wasn't limited to home games, either.  Attendance across the board was nearly doubled when she played, and multiple teams moved games against the Fever to the larger NBA arenas to accommodate the demand for tickets.

It wasn't just in-person attendance, either.  The WNBA's TV ratings were up, as well.  Indiana Fever games drew well over a million viewers per broadcast.  While the ratings for non-Fever games were nowhere near that level, they were still up significantly across the board.  And it was a boon for the entire league!  Thanks to people tuning in for Caitlin Clark, they saw how great the WNBA's product is!  Would they have found out otherwise?  Maybe, maybe not.

Some of Clark's critics don't want to give her all the credit.  Players like Angel Reese believe that they've had just as much of an impact on the WNBA's growing popularity as Caitlin Clark.  While it's true that the outstanding rookie class of Clark, Reese and Cameron Brink has helped raise the league's profile, it's ridiculous to suggest that it doesn't happen if not for Clark's immense popularity.  And, frankly, it reeks of jealousy.

Here's the other thing about it, too: what difference does it make?  Caitlin Clark has risen the profile of the entire league!  Everyone (including those players who are whining) has benefitted.  And, to her credit, Caitlin Clark isn't stooping to that level.  She's just disappointed that it's come to this instead of celebrating the new appreciation people finally have for the WNBA after all these years. 

You'll notice who isn't complaining about Caitlin Clark, too.  It isn't Breanna Stewart or A'ja Wilson or Brittney Griner.  They get it.  They know she's good for the league.  That's why she was offered a record amount to join Unrivaled, the new 3-on-3 women's basketball league featuring WNBA players set to launch in January.  Clark declined, but it's a standing offer, so we could very well see her playing with Unrivaled in 2026.

Now let's talk about the Olympics.  People were up in arms because Caitlin Clark wasn't on the 12-player Team USA roster.  Their argument was that it was "stupid" not to include her because it would impact NBC's ratings for women's basketball games.  The fact that they thought USA Basketball should care about NBC's ratings more than winning a gold medal (which they did) says all you need to know about how important Caitlin Clark has become to the sport of women's basketball as a whole.  And, yes, she'll be a fixture of USA Basketball for the next decade.

Her impact wasn't just on the WNBA, either.  It's easy to forget because it seems so long ago, but she finished her college career at Iowa as the NCAA's all-time leading scorer, men or women.  Iowa's game against UConn in the Women's Final Four was an absolute classic that drew 14.2 million viewers, ESPN's largest audience for a women's basketball broadcast ever.  The National Championship Game against South Carolina was on ABC and set a new record by averaging 18.9 million viewers!  Overall ratings for the NCAA Tournament doubled between 2023 and 2024.

She was obviously going to be the No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA Draft.  The question was how she'd adjust to the pro game.  And it was definitely a struggle at first (although, the WNBA didn't help matters by giving the Fever a brutal early-season schedule).  Clark eventually found her groove, though, and won WNBA Rookie of the Year.  She was also a First Team All-WNBA selection.  As a rookie, Caitlin Clark was one of the five best players in the entire WNBA!

After losing their first five games and starting 1-8, the Fever were 11-15 at the Olympic break.  Once they came back from the Olympic break, they went 9-5 to finish 20-20 overall.  Indiana ended its seven-year playoff drought, the longest in WNBA history.  This is a team that won just five games two seasons ago and went 13-27 in 2023.  While the turnaround can't be attributed entirely to Caitlin Clark (they also took Aliyah Boston with the No. 1 pick in 2023), her impact is obvious.

As for her individual exploits, Clark had one of the finest rookie seasons in WNBA history.  She was just the fifth rookie in league history and the first since Candace Parker in 2008 to be named First Team All-WNBA.  Clark's 337 assists were a WNBA single-season record.  Her 122 three-pointers were the second-most for a season in league history.  She led the league in assists and had two triple-doubles.

There's also the jersey sales, the logo threes that go viral, the Saturday Night Live appearance, and so much more.  Caitlin Clark's impact on and off the court was so significant that she became just the second woman EVER to be named Time's Athlete of the Year.  So, ultimately, there was no other choice.  Caitlin Clark is your back-to-back Joe Brackets Female Athlete of the Year.

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

NFL 2024 (Week 17)

Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger have spoken out about the NFL's decision to play on Christmas this season, despite it being a Wednesday, and forcing four playoff teams to play three games in 11 days as a result.  They aren't wrong.  But here we are.  The end of the brutal stretch for Steelers, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans before they get at least 10 days off.  (See how much dumber that looks when you put it in that perspective?)

Anyway, with the Christmas games and the NFL Network tripleheader, there are eight games in national windows this week!  There are only eight games total on Sunday afternoon!  And, by the end of the Monday night game, the NFL will have played on 11 of 16 days from December 15-30.  That's a lot of football!

Chiefs (14-1) at Steelers (10-5): Kansas City-Kansas City just finds ways to win.  It's been the same story all season.  They play a one-score game seemingly every week.  Every week, they manage to win.  So, why should we think their matchup with the Steelers will be any different?  Sure, we saw them lose to the Raiders last Christmas.  Their only loss since then came in Buffalo in Week 11.  They wrap up the three games in 11 days stretch with another one-score win, while Pittsburgh (who had by far the most difficult schedule of the four teams) finishes it 0-3.

Ravens (10-5) at Texans (9-6): Houston-The last time Beyonce performed at halftime of a Ravens game, she made the power go out and Baltimore almost blew a 28-6 lead after it came back on.  Yes, that was 12 years ago.  Let's hope it doesn't happen again.  Although, she's from Houston, so it's a much easier trip for her this time.  This matchup could easily be repeated two weeks from now in the wild card round.  Playoff preview or not, look for the Texans to win it.

Seahawks (8-7) at Bears (4-11): Seattle-After back-to-back home losses against the Packers and Vikings, Seattle's playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.  The Seahawks went just 3-6 at home this season, which really is remarkable when you consider how much of a home field advantage they've typically had through the years.  Anyway, they're on the road this week.  And playing the Bears.  If they can't beat Chicago, they'll need some help from the Cardinals to have any shot at having next week matter.

Chargers (9-6) at Patriots (3-12): Chargers-You really don't know what you're getting from the Chargers week-to-week.  They got their butts kicked in the second half by Tampa Bay, then completely turn around the Denver game with a free kick field goal at the end of the first half.  And it's got them in prime position to return to the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh's first season at the helm.  Their path is much easier than Denver's too.  The Chargers finish with the Patriots and Raiders and only need to win one.

Broncos (9-6) at Bengals (7-8): Denver-This is effectively a playoff game for Denver.  If they beat the Bengals, they're in for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 nine years ago.  If they don't, they need to beat Kansas City next week.  Even though they arguably should've beaten the Chiefs the first time, they don't want to rely on that.  Especially since it's not just the Bengals who have a chance at catching them.  Cincinnati, meanwhile, needs to win both this game and next week in Pittsburgh to have any chance.

Cardinals (7-8) at Rams (9-6): Rams-While I don't think it's likely, it's possible the Rams could clinch the division this week.  (They need a win and either a Seahawks loss or a bunch of other teams winning.)  Quite the turnaround for a team that started 1-4!  And they're only getting better too!  That'll be quite a game against the Packers in the playoffs!  I'm getting ahead of myself a little bit, though.  They play Seattle next week in a game that should officially decide the division title (my guess would be on Saturday night).

Jets (4-11) at Bills (12-3): Buffalo-It'll be interesting to see how the Bills handle this game if the Chiefs win on Wednesday and clinch the 1-seed.  They'll actually be locked into the 2-seed if Kansas City and Houston both win.  Things will obviously be much different if either or both of the AFC North teams win, so you know they'll be paying attention on Christmas.  Regardless of what their situation is, I'd imagine they'll play their starters against the Jets, then use Week 18 against New England as their quasi-bye before the playoffs.

Titans (3-12) at Jaguars (3-12): Jacksonville-Third place in the AFC South will be decided here.  When these two met three weeks ago, it was a 10-6 slog won by the Jaguars.  Since then, Jacksonville has lost to two other bad teams (the Jets and Raiders), while the Titans have been competitive against Cincinnati and Indianapolis.  Even still, the game is in Jacksonville, which is enough for me to say the Jaguars take it and sweep the season series.

Raiders (3-12) at Saints (5-10): New Orleans-That was the first shutout in the NFL this season on Monday night.  Needless to say, it wasn't a good showing by the Saints' offense.  They won't be exposed to the elements or the frigid December Green Bay air this time, though.  They're back at home in the climate-controlled Superdome against a bad Raiders team.  That Raiders team is coming off a win, however.  It was against Jacksonville, but it was still a win.

Colts (7-8) at Giants (2-13): Indianapolis-Indianapolis has very realistic playoff hopes.  The Broncos are playing Cincinnati and Kansas City.  They're playing the Giants and Jaguars.  Of course, they can win both and still not make it.  And if they lose one, they'll be eliminated.  Which they'll deserve to be.  The Giants, on the other hand, can "accomplish" two things with a loss.  They can finish winless at home and lock up the No. 1 pick in the Draft for the first time since 1965.

Cowboys (7-8) at Eagles (12-3): Philadelphia-How long will Jalen Hurts be out?  That's the big question surrounding the Eagles.  With their loss last week, the 1-seed is pretty much gone.  But, more significantly, they haven't clinched the division yet.  So, they need to get a win and wrap that up.  And you know that the Cowboys would love to come into Philadelphia and play the spoiler.  It's so crazy that a Cowboys-Eagles game was flexed out of the national doubleheader spot, too.

Panthers (4-11) at Buccaneers (8-7): Tampa Bay-Tampa Bay is going to end up ruing that loss in Dallas.  The Bucs were in control of the NFC South, but now find themselves trailing Atlanta and needing some help to win another division title.  Of course, the Falcons are in Washington, so that help might come.  They absolutely can't lose to Carolina, though.  And they know this will be a tough game.  The Panthers won last week and the game went to overtime when these two met in Charlotte.

Dolphins (7-8) at Browns (3-12): Miami-Did the Dolphins dig themselves too big of a hole to make the playoffs?  Miami is 5-2 since starting the season 2-6 and ends with Cleveland and the Jets, so that could easily be a 7-2 finish.  Both of their remaining games are on the road, though, so it's not a lock.  The Dolphins need to win both if they're to have any chance at a wild card berth that seemed so far out of reach just a few weeks ago.

Packers (11-4) at Vikings (13-2): Minnesota-Are they just waiting until this one's over to announce Vikings-Lions as Game 272?  Because I really don't know what else it'll be.  And, if Minnesota wins on Sunday, it'll be guaranteed to be for the division and 1-seed in the NFC regardless of how the Lions do on Monday night.  Should the Packers win, however, Detroit can clinch the division on Monday night.  Although, it is relevant that Green Bay is 0-4 this season against the three NFC teams with fewer losses than them, including a loss to the Vikings at Lambeau.

Falcons (8-7) at Commanders (10-5): Washington-Somebody's got a chance to clinch something on Sunday night.  Washington can secure its first playoff berth since 2020 (and first wild card since 2007) with a win, while the Falcons could potentially wrap up the NFC South with a win and a Tampa Bay loss.  Atlanta hasn't been to the playoffs since 2017, when their head coach was...current Commanders coach Dan Quinn!  Good call to flex this one into Sunday night!  

Lions (13-2) at 49ers (6-9): Detroit-When the schedule was made the NFC Championship Game rematch in the final Monday night game of the season seemed like a no-brainer.  Except the Lions were the only team that got the memo.  They're going for the 1-seed, while the 49ers have already been eliminated.  Detroit will know going into the game whether they can clinch the 1-seed, but they also have the luxury of knowing that even with a loss, they can play for it in Week 18.

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 155-85

Monday, December 23, 2024

Festivus Airing of Grievances

Along with the aluminum pole and feats of strength, the highlight of any Festivus celebration is the airing of grievances.  I've got a lot of problems with you people, and now you're gonna hear about them.  I have a wide range of grievances.  Some are very nitpicky personal preferences.  Some are on a much larger scale.  And hopefully some of them will be resolved in 2025.

FIFA: Where do I start with FIFA?  Their corruption was on full display in 2024.  They put three games of the 2030 World Cup in South America just so they could say the continent used its turn as "host" and use that as an excuse to give Saudi Arabia 2034 unopposed.  They expanded the Club World Cup to a 32-team event using the old World Cup format even though there was no desire for it and despite complaints from the players who'll actually have to play the games.  But, who cares about player safety when there's money to be made?

Soccer's Streaming Obsession: Speaking of FIFA, they made a deal with Netflix for U.S. rights to the next two Women's World Cups.  Yet another soccer event that will be stuck behind a paywall.  I'm not trying to sound like an old man complaining about streaming, which will only grow.  Still, it's gotta be tough to be a soccer fan and having to pay for different streaming services to watch the Women's World Cup (Netflix), MLS (Apple), the Premier League (Peacock), the Champions League (Paramount+) and whatever European leagues are on ESPN+.  Some of them at least have deals that combine linear TV and streaming, but it's not exactly the most user-friendly setup.  Especially with the U.S. hosting the 2026 World Cup, they should be doing everything they can to make it easier to watch games.  Having different leagues/tournaments on every conceivable streaming service isn't doing that.

The New York Rangers: This season started so well.  Then it was...not.  They won the President's Trophy last season and brought virtually everybody back from that team.  Then all of the dirty laundry got aired.  Players were traded or waived and made it known they weren't happy about it.  Lines got shuffled and guys taken in and out of the lineup.  That hasn't worked, either.  For all the complaining about their defense and hanging the goalies out to dry, the team has completely lost the ability to score!  Which is just as much of a problem!

NCAA Eligibility Rules: The eligibility rules in college sports keep changing so much it's enough to give you whiplash!  I'm not just talking about the NIL and college athletes receiving revenue sharing, either.  First there was the transfer portal, allowing players to change schools whenever they want without having to sit out and causing rosters to completely turn over from one year to the next.  Now there's the whole thing with JUCO players getting a full four years of NCAA eligibility.  It's ridiculous.  You're gonna have guys with eight-year college careers and guys still in college who graduated high school with pros (and I'm not talking rookies here...I'm talking multi-year veterans).

MLB Contract Loopholes: Nothing the Dodgers are doing with all of this deferred money garbage is against the rules.  At least not currently (although, hopefully it'll be addressed in negotiations for the new CBA).  And it's true that every team can theoretically do it.  But the idea of signing players to massive contracts and deferring a good portion of their salary to bring down the amount they count against the luxury tax goes against the entire spirit of the luxury tax rules.  This is a loophole I'd love to see closed. 

NHL Roster Manipulation: Nobody does roster manipulation like the Vegas Golden Knights.  They've become masters at it.  For the past several seasons, the Knights have put guys on IR so they can stockpile veterans at the trade deadline without going over the salary cap.  Then all of those "injured" players magically get healthy and return for the playoffs!  Again, not against the rules.  But it should be.

NFL White Helmets/Uniforms: Plenty of teams took advantage of the NFL's decision to start allowing alternate helmets again.  Some reintroduced cool throwbacks.  Others made I'll go with "interesting" calls that some people probably love while others hate.  But what's with all the teams that introduced white helmets and all-white versions of their uniform to go with it?  None of them look good!  (The Cardinals, Colts, Dolphins, Bills and Chargers are exceptions since their primary helmets are white.)

City Connect Uniforms: There is something worse than the NFL's white helmets/uniforms...the MLB City Connect uniforms.  Far too many teams have them, and, while some aren't as bad as others, they're all terrible!  MLB even had its own City Connects with the AL and NL All*Star uniforms, which this season were so bad that Rob Manfred actually gave in to what fans wanted and said they'd go back to team uniforms at the All*Star Game next season in Atlanta.  (The same could also be said about the abundance of different uniform options in the NBA and WNBA.)

NFL Scheduling Decisions: Why are the Chicago Bears featured on national TV so frequently?  They aren't good!  Same thing with the Bengals.  Ditto about that early season obsession with the Jets.  Even with flex scheduling improving some of the matchups later in the season, some of the teams/games selected for the national windows are just odd at best, questionable at worst.

The Paris Olympic Ceremonies: As great as the Paris Olympics were, the Opening and Closing Ceremonies left a lot to be desired.  The ambitious Opening Ceremony on the Seine was either gonna be great or an absolute mess.  Unfortunately, it was the latter.  It was memorable alright, but not for the right reasons.  The Closing Ceremony wasn't much better.  The bar was set pretty low, and they barely cleared it.  The only cool part was Tom Cruise's entrance and exit during the LA handover portion (and that concert on the beach for LA's part wasn't exactly great, either).

Clay Holmes: Yes, he gets his own grievance!  That's what happens when you're so bad that you keep finding new and creative ways to blow saves before Yankees fans were finally put out of their misery after lucky No. 13 on a walk-off grand slam in Texas in early September.  Why he then pitched all five games of the World Series is beyond me!  Fortunately, the Yankees traded for Devin Williams and will have an actual closer for the first time since Aroldis Chapman was demoted and fired for Holmes, who signed with the Mets to be a starter.  They can have him.  Although, I'm not sure how he'll be able to blow saves at the beginning of the game.

NFL Players Wearing Whatever Number They Want: It's been a few years since the NFL started letting players wear whatever number they want regardless of position (with the exception of offensive linemen, who still have to wear ineligible numbers).  I'm still not used to it and I still don't like it.  Not only do we have random defensive guys wearing single-digit numbers left and right, we've got kickers wearing numbers in the 20s, 30s and 40s because all the single-digit numbers are taken.  It just looks so wrong.  This is the NFL.  Not college or high school football.

Those are my main grievances for this Festivus.  As I said, some make a much bigger difference than others.  But that doesn't mean it can't be a grievance.  And, frankly, it's good to get these off my chest.  It's a Festivus Miracle!

Saturday, December 21, 2024

NFL 2024 (Week 16)

There's been a lot of talk over the past few days over the NFL's decision to schedule two Saturday games opposite the first round of the expanded College Football Playoff.  When they made the deal with Netflix to broadcast two games on Christmas, which falls on a Wednesday this year, though, they weren't really left with another choice.  The four teams playing on Wednesday have to play on Saturday in order to get proper rest before the unusual midweek game.  Next year, Christmas is on a Thursday, which is a normal NFL game day, so this is almost certainly a one-year thing.

Thursday Night: Denver (Loss)

Texans (9-5) at Chiefs (13-1): Kansas City-With Broncos-Chargers getting flexed to Thursday night (still not a fan of Thursday night flexing at all), six of the seven AFC playoff teams will end up being featured in the first three games of the week.  When they set the Christmas matchups (this requiring the same four teams to play on Saturday), they picked four teams that made the playoffs last season, so the selections weren't much of a risk.  Still, they got lucky that it worked out the way they hoped and Texans-Chiefs is a matchup of two teams that have already won their divisions.  Another remarkable Kansas City stat that I saw this week: the Chiefs are one of four teams that hasn't scored 30 points this season.  The others are the Giants, Raiders and Browns--who all have double-digit losses.  The Chiefs are 13-1, going on 14-1.

Steelers (10-4) at Ravens (9-5): Baltimore-Pittsburgh has already clinched a playoff berth and can wrap up the division with a win.  The Ravens will clinch their playoff spot and tie the Steelers for the division lead if they win.  So, yeah, this is a big game.  Give me Baltimore, leaving the AFC North up for grabs over the final two weeks.  (Pittsburgh, by the way, has the most brutal stretch of the four teams with three games in 10 days--at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, vs Kansas City.)

Giants (2-12) at Falcons (7-7): Atlanta-Kirk Cousins is no longer the Falcons' starter, as they turn to first-round pick Michael Penix at QB.  After the change was made, I saw a quote the said making the change guarantees Atlanta won't win the division.  Frankly, the Falcons probably weren't winning the division anyway.  Not with Tampa Bay holding a one-game lead and ending with the Panthers and Saints at home.  All the Falcons can do is take care of the Giants and get back over .500.

Lions (12-2) at Bears (4-10): Detroit-Losing last week may not have been the worst thing for Detroit.  Even Dan Campbell thinks so.  Of course, they're tied with the Vikings now, but they play Minnesota (likely for the division title) in the last game.  And, frankly, that loss could've come on Thanksgiving if Matt Eberflus actually knew how to manage the clock rather than actively getting himself fired (which may have been his goal?).

Browns (3-11) at Bengals (6-8): Cincinnati-This game was originally on Thursday night, then it was moved to 4:25 before finally settling on a 1:00 kickoff.  Which, frankly, is the window where it belongs.  The Browns are terrible (yet two of their three wins are over Pittsburgh and Baltimore).  Cincinnati is technically still alive for the playoffs, but will be eliminated with another loss or as soon as the Broncos and Chargers win another game.  They play Denver next week, so that'll take care of that.  They'll still technically be alive until then.

Titans (3-11) at Colts (6-8): Indianapolis-Much like Cincinnati, Indianapolis has faint playoff "chances."  Same situation as the Bengals, though.  They're eliminated with another loss or another Broncos/Chargers win.  Unlike the Bengals, the Colts have a very realistic chance at winning out.  Titans, at Giants, Jaguars.  It's still a long shot.  All they can do is take care of their own business.

Rams (8-6) at Jets (4-10): Rams-The Rams were 1-4 at their bye week.  They're 7-2 since then and now lead the NFC West.  This team is starting to look more and more dangerous, too.  Especially since this is their last road game, and it's against the Jets.  I also find it funny that we're getting this matchup a week after the 30 for 30 about the New York Sack Exchange Jets where they have a whole segment about a Rams-Jets game where Mark Gastineau and Jackie Slater got into a fight.

Eagles (12-2) at Commanders (9-5): Philadelphia-It wasn't too long ago when it seemed like these two would be in a neck-and-neck race for the NFC East title.  Instead, we've got the Eagles on a 10-game winning streak looking to lock up the division with two weeks to go.  Even though that seems inevitable, they're also in the mix for home field advantage, and a loss here could damage their chances for that.  A loss for the Commanders, meanwhile, suddenly drops them into a situation where they've got to fight for their wild card over the final two games.

Cardinals (7-7) at Panthers (3-11): Arizona-Arizona visits the Rams in what amounts to an elimination game next week.  If they win out, though, making the playoffs is a very realistic possibility.  Beating the Panthers is no guarantee, however.  Carolina may be just 3-11, but has been playing much better than its record in recent weeks and has been competitive with good teams, especially at home.  The Cardinals should win, but it'll be close.

Vikings (12-2) at Seahawks (8-6): Seattle-All kinds of playoff implications in this one, so it's odd that it's just a regional game.  This isn't a FOX doubleheader week, but you'd think a game with this much importance would've been flexed.  Last week, the Seahawks got beat pretty badly on Sunday night in those bright green uniforms.  The Vikings, meanwhile, wore that ridiculous all white getup on Monday night.  Maybe that's why they didn't get flexed into primetime.  Can the Seahawks wrap up their home schedule with a win?

Patriots (3-11) at Bills (11-3): Buffalo-Buffalo is the only AFC playoff team not featured in an exclusive national window this week.  The Bills did get moved into the national doubleheader game slot, though.  It's also crazy that they haven't played the Patriots yet.  Two of their last three are against New England, with a matchup against the Jets in between.  They've scored 90 points in their last two games.  They've also given up 84.  Expect a little more defense to be played in this one.

Jaguars (3-11) at Raiders (2-12): Jacksonville-While it's Jaguars-Raiders, there's still plenty of reason to pay attention to this game.  If Las Vegas wins, that all but wraps up the No. 1 pick in the draft for the Giants.  If Jacksonville wins, the Raiders still have a shot to pick first.  That seems to be the most likely scenario.  The Jaguars pick up win No. 4.

49ers (6-8) at Dolphins (6-8): Miami-Both of these teams expected to return to the playoffs this season.  It looks like neither one will.  In fact, the loser will be officially eliminated from postseason contention.  Which team will that be?  Well, even though the Dolphins have been a dysfunctional mess, they've played pretty well at home.  The 49ers, on the other hand, have struggled on the road.  That's why I'm going with Miami.

Buccaneers (8-6) at Cowboys (6-8): Tampa Bay-Tampa Bay went into SoFi Stadium last week and absolutely dominated the Chargers in the second half.  It really was an impressive performance!  And you can bet people took notice.  The Bucs are on a four-game winning streak and they head to Dallas, where the Cowboys have been giving up points left and right all season, on Sunday night.  Make that five straight, as Dallas falls to an ungodly 1-7 at home.

Saints (5-9) at Packers (10-4): Green Bay-Don't think I'm letting the Packers off the hook for those ridiculous white helmets!  Those aren't as bad as Minnesota's, but it's close.  Anyway, Green Bay's record against Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia this season is 0-4.  Against teams not named the Lions, Vikings or Eagles, the Packers are 10-0.  Which will only get them the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs.  Incredible.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 145-80

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Priority: Pitching

Outside of Juan Soto's record contract with the Mets, most of the action this offseason has centered around starting pitchers.  There were two big free agent signing with Blake Snell going to the Dodgers and Max Fried joining the Yankees.  There was also the trade with Garret Crochet changing the color of his Sox.  We've even seen less-heralded starters cash in big, such as Luis Severino's deal with the A's.  And teams signing relievers with the intention of turning them into starters (Clay Holmes to the Mets).  There are plenty of big names still on the board, too, so we haven't seen the last big-money contract for a starting pitcher this offseason.

The old adage is "you can never have enough starting pitching," which some teams are clearly taking to heart.  The Dodgers had about nine starting pitchers on the roster last season, yet still somehow didn't have enough and ended up with only three healthy starters in the postseason.  Even with those guys set to return next season, they still went out and got Snell, who was arguably the best free agent starting pitcher available.  And they locked him up early, too.  It was right around Thanksgiving.  (Although, there's no doubt Snell not wanting to repeat what happened to him last off season was a factor in that.)

Of course, there's a huge irony surrounding this sudden focus on starting pitching.  They're paying even No. 2 or 3 starters ace-type money, which indicates that quality starting pitching has never been more valuable.  Meanwhile, less is expected of starting pitchers than ever before.  In many cases, they're expected to get you through five innings once every five days and that's it, then it's a parade of hard-throwing relievers (who get burnt out from overuse by September). 

You would think that with the financial investment that's being put in, starting pitching is the priority.  And, in a way, it is.  Teams like the Dodgers stockpile starters because they know how important it is to not need to get 12 outs from your bullpen every game, and they want to make sure they have enough in case of the inevitable injuries.  But, it's still interesting to see teams spending so much money on starters when they'll still utilize the formula and only ask the starter to give them five maybe six innings.

This obviously doesn't apply to all starting pitchers.  There are still a handful of legitimate aces who'll pitch until you literally have to take the ball out of his hand.  And I'm sure there are plenty of starters who'd love to go longer into games if only their teams would let them.  Maybe that's what we're about to see with all of these starters getting big contracts.

All of this coincides with the release of MLB's report about the abundance of pitching injuries.  The timing was obviously a coincidence, but maybe the report's findings will further influence the pitching market.  Because the results, while not surprising, were telling.

It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the main cause of these injuries is the increased focus on velocity over the past 15 years.  Fastball speeds have consistently gone up.  So have the injuries.  It's a fairly obvious correlation.  The emphasis on maximum velocity has resulted in guys throwing as hard as they can on every pitch before another hard-thrower comes in.

"Maximum velocity" doesn't just apply to fastballs, either.  The average speed of sliders, curveballs and changeups have all risen, too.  That has also helped contribute to the abundance of injuries.  Spin rate and movement have become just as important as velocity in this era of pitch tracking.  So, there's an emphasis on "stuff," with curveballs, sliders and changeups also being thrown at max effort every time.  Which puts stress on different parts of the arm every pitch.

While this next point makes total sense, it's also pretty telling that pitching injuries peak in early March.  It's in the ramp-up to Spring Training or the start of Spring Training itself when most of them occur.  So, obviously, those offseason training programs are a contributing factor.  Once the season starts, the number of major injuries that result in missing significant time are far lower, and they remain steady throughout the season.

That was actually discussed at the Winter Meetings (and has previously been brought up within the baseball medical community).  Because it's sort of a catch-22 situation.  Offseason pitching programs are a part of the problem.  Pitchers aren't using the offseason to give their arms a break.  But, at the same time, the offseason is when you want to tinker or learn a new pitch.  So, finding a solution will be difficult.

Another thing that's obvious, but was also mentioned in the report as a part of the problem is that it's not isolated to the Major Leagues.  Not even close.  It's the same thing at lower levels and has even made its way into amateur baseball.  Major League teams look at velocity and stuff, so that's how pitchers are being trained all the way up now.  Go all out for shorter stints.  Which is why we're seeing the same injuries to pitchers at all levels.

Both problems are interconnected.  The increased focus on velocity and max effort at all times is a contributing factor (perhaps the contributing factor) to the injuries.  And the idea of going all out for a shorter amount of time before going to the bullpen is why starters aren't expected to go much longer than five innings.  They don't do it on their way up through the system.  They sometimes don't even do it at the amateur level.  So, it's not that they can't throw more than five innings or 100 pitches.  It's that, with the way the game is being played at all levels these days, managers don't let them even try.

Which brings me back to the contracts we've seen pitchers sign this offseason.  Is this the start of a sea change?  Is the emphasis going to be brought back on getting length out of your starter?  After all, you're paying these guys millions of dollars because they're supposedly the better pitchers.  So, wouldn't you want your better pitchers pitching as often as possible--both in the game and more frequently?

Because, otherwise, these pitching contracts don't make much sense.  Don't get me wrong.  I think there's a massive amount of value in quality starting pitching.  It does make a difference.  Just ask the good teams that have deep starting rotations.  So, top-line starters are absolutely worth it.  Now if they'd just be allowed to prove that they're worth their contracts and pitch more than five innings in a game!

Monday, December 16, 2024

Transfer Portal Problems

Over the past few years, federal legislation has completely transformed the look of college athletics.  One of the biggest changes is that student-athletes are no longer required to sit out a year if they transfer schools.  They can also transfer as many times as they want, all but eliminating the "student" part of student-athletes, as they're all essentially free agents every year, free to sign with whichever program offers them the most playing time or the best NIL deal (the NIL is another part of this seismic shift).

Recruiting has become a year-round job, and coaches aren't just recruiting freshmen.  Half their time is spent re-recruiting their own roster, hoping the current players will have incentive to stay.  Managing the transfer portal is a full-time responsibility.  So much so that coaches can't do the part of the job they enjoy--actually coaching!  And it has resulted in some high-profile coaching retirements, including Nick Saban and Jay Wright.

As a result of the transfer portal, we see college basketball teams with completely different rosters from one season to the next.  Since there's absolutely nothing stopping them from doing it, players will play at three or even four schools over the course of their career.  Whenever a coach leaves, the new coach has to rebuild the entire roster essentially from scratch (with the occasional exception of one or two guys).  (When Deion Sanders took over at Colorado, he brought in 80! new players through the transfer portal.)  Even coaches that don't change jobs can't build a program because of the constant turnover.

While it's still a relatively new thing and everyone's learning on the fly, there are numerous issues with the transfer portal that need to be addressed.  The biggest one, however, is the timing.  For some reason, the transfer portal opens while the season is still going.  Which, as you can imagine, wreaks havoc on rosters while also putting players in an unenviable position where they have to make a decision about their future while still thinking about their present.

Football players opting out of bowl games is another fairly recent phenomenon.  There are different reasons why players might choose to opt out, but entering the transfer portal has become one of the most common.  And it's not just a handful of players, either.  It's become more and more prevalent, affecting numerous rosters each season.

Last season, after not being selected for the College Football Playoff, Florida State had so many players opt out of the Orange Bowl that they took the field against Georgia with a completely different team than the one that had gone 13-0 up to that point.  It shouldn't have been a surprise, then, that they lost by a bowl-game record 60! points!  It was more like one of those early September guarantee games against an FCS opponent than the Orange Bowl.

Would they have had all those opt outs had they been picked for the CFP?  Probably not.  But that's not the point.  The point is that in the four weeks between the ACC Championship Game and the Orange Bowl, the Florida State roster was completely decimated by starters and other key players entering the transfer portal.  On the bright side, they at least still had enough players left to field a team in the Orange Bowl.  Which is more than I can say for Marshall.

Marshall was set to take on Army in this season's Independence Bowl, but informed the bowl committee over the weekend that they won't be able to participate.  Marshall won the Sun Belt Conference title, but their head coach left the next day to take the Southern Miss job.  That led to more than 25 players entering the transfer portal, not leaving them with enough to play the game. 

The Independence Bowl was obviously left scrambling to find a replacement, and fortunately Louisiana Tech was able to step in at the last minute.  Imagine if they hadn't!  The game likely would've had to be cancelled and Army really would've drawn the short end of the stick, seeing its season come to end not because of something it did, but because too many Marshall players transferred.  Not the best look!

Penn State, meanwhile, is gearing up for a College Football Playoff appearance.  The Nittany Lions will be without their backup quarterback, Beau Pribula, for however long their run is.  He announced that he's entering the transfer portal and, as a result, will be leaving the team, effective immediately.  While Pribula isn't a starter, he's played in every game this season and had a significant enough role in the offense that his absence will be felt.

In his Instagram post announcing his decision, Pribula hit the nail right on the head.  He wrote, "The current NCAA postseason model creates a challenge for student-athletes.  The overlapping CFP playoff & transfer portal timeline has forced me into an impossible decision."  Pribula doesn't want to abandon his teammates going into the most important games of the season, but he was left in a no-win situation.  It was either leave Penn State before the end of the season or risk not being able to transfer (which, if that's what he truly wants, he should absolutely have the ability to do).

It's telling that the transferring student-athlete can identify the problem when the NCAA seemingly can't (or, more likely, won't).  It isn't just players who are being put in an impossible situation.  Coaches are supposed to prepare for postseason games while simultaneously trying to figure out who on the team will actually be available to play in said game.  Which brings me to another major issue with the transfer portal calendar.

Football teams in bowl games or basketball teams in the NCAA Tournament are still in the middle of the season.  That's what they should be worried about.  Not the transfer portal.  Meanwhile, teams that didn't qualify for the postseason are already hitting the portal and getting a jump on reshaping their rosters.  As are their players.  So, the good teams and their players are indirectly penalized for their success because they're left playing catch-up in the transfer portal once the season finally does end (and, not to mention those poor assistant coaches who won't be able to take any time off after the season).

What's so frustrating about the whole process is that there's such an obvious solution.  The College Football Playoff field was announced on a Sunday afternoon.  The transfer portal opened on Monday.  Less than 24 hours later.  Before any team had played a single postseason game.  It's the same thing in basketball.  The transfer portal opens the day after Selection Sunday.  Why?

Seriously.  Why does the transfer portal open the day after NCAA selections are announced?  Especially when all of the best teams in the country will still be playing in the NCAA Tournament (or, in the case of football, a bowl game or the College Football Playoff)?  That unnecessarily puts players, coaches and teams in a tough situation that they don't need to be in.  Especially since there's absolutely no reason for the transfer portal to open so early.

If that sounds simple, that's because it is.  If they move the start of the transfer portal to 24 hours after the NCAA Tournament ends instead of 24 hours after the selections are announced, it would solve so many problems and make things so much easier for everyone.  Then you wouldn't have teams opting out of bowl games because they don't have enough players and you wouldn't have players leaving their teams with the season still going.  Like I said, simple.

Sunday, December 15, 2024

NFL 2024 (Week 15)

You can tell the season is starting to wind down.  Some playoff spots have already been clinched and others will be soon.  We've also got doubleheaders on both networks (and both 4:25 national games are fantastic!) and two Monday night games (which are not).  There's also a lot of bad vs. bad this week, so we know one of them's gonna get a win and the other will help their draft position.

Thursday Night: Rams (Win)

Chiefs (12-1) at Browns (3-10): Kansas City-If you looked at everything other than their record, you'd have no idea the Chiefs were 12-1.  Kansas City's scoring margin for the season is just +56.  Yet, the Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West and are in position to once again claim the No. 1 seed.  It's because they record in one-score games is incredible.  Against Cleveland, it shouldn't be a one-score game.  But, even if it is, you'd have to figure the Chiefs will find a way again.

Bengals (5-8) at Titans (3-10): Cincinnati-Cincinnati won in both Dallas and Springfield on Monday night.  I didn't watch the Simpsons broadcast, but I saw plenty of highlights online and it was incredibly well-done.  Anyway, the Bengals kept their faint playoff hopes alive with that victory.  And by faint, I mean really faint.  They need to win out to have any chance.  That's a difficult task to say the least, but starting that string with the Titans should keep them alive for at least another week.

Commanders (8-5) at Saints (5-8): Washington-Washington absolutely thumped Tennessee in their final game before their ridiculously late bye.  The Commanders now begin the stretch run with very realistic wild card hopes.  They're currently on the outside looking in and face the Eagles next week, so this is effectively a must-win for them.  Especially since that win over the Titans snapped a three-game losing streak.

Ravens (8-5) at Giants (2-11): Baltimore-It sure looks like it'll be Giants vs. Raiders for the No. 1 pick in the draft.  And the Giants appear to be the clubhouse leaders in that department.  They haven't won a home game yet this season, and it's doubtful that'll change this week.  Things have gotten so bad that fans hired a plane last week with a sign begging to end this dumpster fire.  The good news is there's only three games left after this one.

Cowboys (5-8) at Panthers (3-10): Dallas-Monday night was the Dallas Cowboys' season in microcosm.  A dumb mistake that led directly to a loss.  Now they get a Panthers team that has actually played pretty well since its bye.  Carolina has lost all three, but was competitive in all of them against three division leaders.  So, this won't be easy for Dallas.  I do think this is a game the Cowboys can and should win, though.

Jets (3-10) at Jaguars (3-10): Jacksonville-There are five teams in the AFC that are currently 3-10.  These are two of them.  This season has obviously been a massive disappointment for both the Jets and Jaguars, although only one (the Jets) actually had expectations.  The Jets almost won in Miami.  Of course they didn't.  The Jaguars went into Nashville and won last week.  Can they make it two in a row?

Dolphins (6-7) at Texans (8-5): Houston-With a win and a Colts loss, the Texans will wrap up their second straight AFC South title.  It's certainly been a lot less dramatic than it was last season.  Miami is clinging to faint playoff hopes that won't officially go out with a loss, but will come pretty close.  If the Dolphins win, though, they end with San Francisco, Cleveland, Jets, so there's a definite chance (even if it is slight).

Colts (6-7) at Broncos (8-5): Denver-They both had their bye last week.  Now they meet each other in a game that could have a big impact on the AFC playoff race.  If the Broncos win, they'll all but clinch a wild card.  If the Colts win, they're not only still in it, they'll be just a game out with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver.  It's crazy to think that all seven AFC playoff berths can essentially be wrapped up with three weeks left, but that could very well be the situation we're looking at.

Bills (10-3) at Lions (12-1): Detroit-I saw a funny graphic on Facebook the other day.  It said the Super Bowl America wants: Bills-Lions.  The Super Bowl America will most likely get: Chiefs-Eagles.  We could easily be seeing a preview of that Super Bowl America wants.  The Bills lost to the Rams in what ended up being the trap game many thought it might be.  Don't be surprised if they bounce back and knock off the Lions, though.  Although, with the way the Lions have won their last few games, it seems silly to pick against them.

Steelers (10-3) at Eagles (11-2): Philadelphia-All four teams playing on Christmas have the same schedule with three games in 10 days, but Pittsburgh has by far the hardest schedule of the four.  While the Chiefs and Ravens get to play bad teams and the Texans are at home, they have to go to Philadelphia.  Fortunately, they enter the game two up on Baltimore in the AFC North.  That could be down to one by the end of the week since the Eagles are on a roll.  The good news for the Steelers is that they don't even need to win to clinch a playoff berth.

Patriots (3-10) at Cardinals (6-7): Arizona-The Cardinals' playoff chances have taken a hit in the past few weeks, but the NFC West is so tight that they aren't out of it at all.  However, because the NFC West is so tight, they really can't afford to lose a game they should win.  They've dropped three in a row, but they can be forgiven for losing to the Seahawks (twice) and Vikings.  Against the Patriots, they can't.

Buccaneers (7-6) at Chargers (8-5): Chargers-As we've seen throughout the season, Jim Harbaugh's Chargers win when they're supposed to and don't when they aren't.  It's still likely that they'll make the playoffs, and they'll probably end up with at least 10 wins.  I'm curious to see how Tampa Bay does on this cross country trip.  They've won three straight to take over the NFC South lead and could be a very dangerous team should they make the playoffs.  So, you can bet there's a lot of NFC contenders rooting for the Chargers in this one.

Packers (9-4) at Seahawks (8-5): Seattle-Every time Green Bay visits Seattle, something crazy happens.  The Packers make the long trip for the third of four straight primetime games (and it could easily become five if their Week 17 game against the Vikings gets flexed to Sunday night) knowing that a loss all but eliminates them for the division title.  The Seahawks, meanwhile, already saw the Rams win this week, so they need it to maintain the NFC West lead.  Seahawks-Rams is my prediction for the Week 18 Sunday night game.  This game could go a long way in determining whether that one matters.

Bears (4-9) at Vikings (11-2): Minnesota-Minnesota will have its playoff berth locked up if the Packers win on Sunday night, but if they don't, the Vikings can take care of it themselves by beating the Bears.  Why are the Bears on national TV again?  I have no idea!  Although, it's the first Monday night game for Caleb Williams, so I guess that's why.  The Vikings have a tough final three weeks, so, even though their playoff berth seems inevitable, getting the spot clinched and out of the way against a beatable opponent should be the focus.

Falcons (6-7) at Raiders (2-11): Atlanta-After the Falcons beat Dallas in Week 9, they were 6-3 with a two-game lead in the NFC South.  A four-game losing streak later, they're under .500 and a game behind Tampa Bay.  The good news is they have a very soft remaining schedule, starting with the Raiders this week.  And they swept the Bucs, so if they beat Las Vegas and Tampa Bay loses to the Chargers, they'll once again control their own path to the division title.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 134-75

Thursday, December 12, 2024

To Pay Or Not to Pay

A few months before the Olympics, World Athletics President Seb Coe made headlines when he announced that all track & field gold medalists in Paris would receive prize money.  Gold medalists were paid $50,000 each, which came directly from the sport's distribution of IOC revenues.  It marked the first time in history that gold medalists were rewarded for their performance by their governing body (National Olympic Committees have done it for years).  It was controversial to say the least, but World Athletics surged forward anyway, with hopes of expanding it further and paying all medalists in LA.

Some of the initial resistance came from other sports federations.  World Athletics is one of the largest and one of the richest international federations.  They also get a big chunk of money from the IOC every four years.  So, track & field can afford to pay its medalists prize money.  Other sports, however, have much smaller budgets and rely on their IOC distribution to pay their expenses.

Their concerns were mainly financial.  Only a handful of international federations (track & field being among them) are financially able to award prize money at the Olympics.  Most can't.  And they had fears that it would widen the gap between the high-revenue sports (track & field, swimming) and the lower-revenue ones.  Worse, while the IOC would never make it mandatory, they feared that they'd get left behind by not doing it while other sports did.  

Seb Coe is one of the candidates to become the next IOC President, and he's made the idea of prize money for all medalists in all sports a part of his platform.  However, it's not just smaller international federations that aren't keen on the idea.  The topic was discussed at the recently concluded Olympic Summit, and there's a lot of push back from National Olympic Committees, too.

Prior to the Paris Games, the IOC didn't have an official position on prize money.  That's no longer the case.  The IOC Executive Board, after listening to the concerns of international federations and athletes' representatives, was in unanimous agreement about it.  They're opposed, declaring it a matter of fairness.

IOC spokesman Mark Adams noted that, including individuals and teams, there were about 1,000 gold medalists in Paris.  Over 10,000 athletes competed, so it's under 10 percent who'd benefit (some of them multiple times).  More significantly, 65 percent of the medalists came from the top 15 NOCs.  (And, while the 92 countries to win a medal was a record, that's still less than half of all the nations that competed in Paris.)  So, awarding prize money would essentially make the rich get richer.

Adams said that awarding prize money to Olympic medalists would "really overwhelmingly benefit a very, very small group of elite athletes to the detriment of others."  Beyond that, "it would only increase the existing inequalities even further...it was felt by the executive board that this goes against the mission of the International Olympic Committee, and it could very easily downgrade the Olympic Games to an elitist event." 

That's a position the IOC shares with both the international federations and the athlete representatives.  NOCs are still free to provide financial motivation for their athletes, but that's up to their discretion.  No one has an issue with that.  If medalists were to be awarded prize money by their international federation or the IOC itself, however, it would not only be double-dipping, it would also further the gap between the haves and the have-nots.

When World Athletics announced that it would award prize money in Paris, I was all for it.  The IOC and the international federations make a fortune on the athletes' backs every Olympics, and the athletes don't see any of that money despite all the hard work they put in for a moment that only comes around once every four years.  So, it made sense to want to give them a piece of the pie.  Especially since medalists have been receiving prize money at the World Championships for a while.

However, I'm glad that the IOC had this discussion and released this statement.  Because it forced me to look at things from a completely different perspective.  Those points all make a lot of sense.  And the fact that the international federations and athletes are in agreement about it is very telling.  Especially the athletes.  You'd think they'd be all about Olympic prize money.  The fact that they're not and they're more concerned with the issue of fairness speaks volumes.

Now, how much of this is the IOC just coming up with its position and simply attaching the international federations' and athletes' names to the press release?  That's always a possibility when talking about the IOC.  The fact that the reception was lukewarm at best and no other federation followed World Athletics' lead, though, gave an indication where they stood.  And there was certainly never going to be enough support to get every federation on board voluntarily (and there would've been some major pushback if the IOC tried to force it on them).

Getting the athletes on board was probably the harder sell.  Although, I'd imagine the athletes had very similar concerns as the international federations.  The larger, richer nations already have access to better training, facilities, coaching, etc.  Smaller nations can only hope to get to that level, knowing they likely never will.  They need the money they get from the IOC just to fund grassroots programs and basic infrastructure.  An Olympic gold medal would obviously make a huge difference, but that prize money would only go to one athlete...who may already be a member of a training group in one of those larger countries.  Everybody else is left to fend for themselves, while fighting an uphill battle for resources.

As a result, I've changed my position.  I no longer support international federations or the IOC giving prize money to Olympic medalists.  The argument about wealth inequality convinced me.  It's very similar to what's going on in the NCAA.  The Power 5 will be unaffected by all of the new legislation regarding paying student-athletes.  Smaller schools won't be able to afford it, though.  Which will result in the Power 5 gaining even more power.

It's a similar situation here.  Think of the United States and China as the SEC and the Big Ten.  They're already the big dogs.  Their athletes would also stand to benefit the most if Olympic medalists were awarded prize money, too.  It's not exactly a level playing field if American and Chinese athletes, who already have the most resources, get even more while smaller nations who may only send one or two athletes to the Olympics as it is get nothing.

This issue will likely come up again during the next few months leading into the IOC Presidential election.  Seb Coe's position is clear.  He made the call to do it at World Athletics and wants every athlete in every sport to receive the same benefit.  The rank-and-file don't agree with him, though.  Now that he knows that, will he come down from that stance?  Or will he push forward, trying to convince them he's right?  Or is this something that you table until after the election (especially since it could be what costs him said election)?

Either way, one thing that seems fairly certain is that this issue will be revisited in the future.  Awarding prize money to Olympic medalists is a great idea in theory.  Unfortunately, it's also something that wouldn't work logistically right now.  The IOC, the international federations and the athletes themselves are in agreement about that.

Monday, December 9, 2024

Where the Soto Contenders Pivot

Steve Cohen really wanted Juan Soto and said he wouldn't be outbid for him.  So, it should come as no surprise then that he got his man.  Mets fans are understandably giddy about the signing, as they should be.  Soto's a great player.  Congratulations to them and congratulations to Steve Cohen.  Congratulations also to Soto on signing a contract guaranteeing him a ridiculous amount of money.

Soto going to the Mets always seemed like the most likely scenario, especially since Cohen was willing to overpay for him.  And, yes, he overpaid.  Is Soto worth $51 million a year right now?  Sure.  Will he be worth that much in 2037?  Probably not.  (Although, the Mets are at least actually paying him $51 million a year instead of doing that stupid deferred money crap the Dodgers somehow keep getting away with.) 

But with an owner who was essentially handing Soto a blank check and Scott Boras as an agent, it would've been a surprise if he didn't take the money.  He would've been stupid not to.  So, I don't begrudge Juan Soto at all.  I obviously would've loved to see him stay in pinstripes, but I had also made my peace with the fact that it wasn't likely to happen.  Losing Soto isn't the gut punch losing Judge would've been, even if he did go across town.  (Had he gone to the Red Sox, it would've been close.)  But again, Steven Cohen's unlimited budget is hard to compete against.

The other teams involved in the Soto sweepstakes have to be disappointed.  Obviously.  But his signing so early gives them plenty of time to pivot.  More importantly, the money that was earmarked for Soto can now be spent elsewhere.  Soto's a superstar.  Those are always nice to have.  But that $50 million can now address multiple needs by being spread across 2-3 different players...of which there are plenty to choose from.

With Soto off the board, the market for those other free agents will open up.  I'd expect it to heat up pretty quickly, too, now that teams know how much money they have available to spend.  Some of those players who were waiting on Soto are perfect fits for the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and/or Dodgers.  Those teams likely didn't have the money for them and Soto.  Now Soto isn't part of the equation, which opens up many more possibilities.

Let's start with the Yankees.  Even if they'd re-signed Soto, they had plenty of other work to do this offseason.  They need a starting pitcher.  They need an actual closer (not Luke Weaver, and the Mets can have Clay Holmes), as well as other bullpen help.  They need a first baseman and another infielder.  And, now that they're not keeping Soto, they need an outfielder, too.  Don't be surprised if the additions they make in those spots are better than they otherwise would've been now that they have extra money to spend.

They've been linked to both Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, the two best starting pitchers still available.  Even while still pursuing Soto, the expectation was that the Yankees would go after Christian Walker to play first base.  Although, wouldn't it be crazy if they ended up signing Pete Alonso away from the Mets!?  But now they can also make a run at some others.  Alex Bregman to play third?  Teoscar Hernandez to play left?  A trade for Cody Bellinger, who can play either center or first?  It's all on the table now!

Fried's market is apparently down to the Yankees and Red Sox.  Boston's also reportedly in on Bregman.  Although, that, frankly, doesn't make much sense to me since they've got so much committed to Devers, who's their franchise player.  They'll also likely make a push for either Hernandez or Anthony Santander to fill the outfield spot they envisioned going to Soto.

Toronto had a grand vision of Juan Soto playing right field for them, as well, even though him signing with the Blue Jays never seemed likely.  They swung big for Ohtani last winter, too, and you'd have to figure they'll throw their hat in the ring every time a big-name free agent becomes available moving forward...including their own Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  Now they're in a much better position to retain Vladito, their franchise player, when he becomes a free agent after next season.  In the short term, I can also see them bringing back former Blue Jay Teoscar Hernandez, who's become an All-Star and World Series champion since leaving Toronto.

Or Hernandez could stay with the Dodgers.  They put in a bid for Soto, but I think that was partly just for show and partly to drive the price up.  The Dodgers actually made the first big move of the winter when they signed Blake Snell to a five-year deal (with Snell no doubt wanting to avoid a similar situation to last offseason, when he had to wait until Spring Training before landing a one-year deal with the Giants).  And they're the Dodgers, so you know they're not done.  Don't be surprised if they get in on Roki Sasaki.  I also have no idea where the Dodgers would've even put Juan Soto since their entire team seemingly consists of starting pitchers, outfielders and Freddie Freeman!

As for the Mets, Soto was both a big want and a big get.  I don't want to say he was a "need," but he's certainly an upgrade over anybody else they could've put in right field.  More importantly, he's a franchise player.  Along with Francisco Lindor, he's the player the Mets will build around for the next 15 years (or at least the next five).  With the Mets, Soto will get to be THE Man.  That wouldn't have been the case in the Bronx.  The Yankees are Judge's team.

Even though this is a team that reached the NLCS without Juan Soto last season, I can't necessarily say adding him necessarily pushes them over the top.  The Mets might not even be the best team in the NL East.  Soto brings them closer to the Phillies and Braves, but they, too, have more work to do this offseason.  And it's not like the Dodgers are going anywhere, either.  We know Steve Cohen has an unlimited budget, so we'll see how aggressive he is the rest of the winter.  Because there are other holes the Mets need to fill.

J.D. Martinez is likely gone as a result of the Soto signing.  I wouldn't be surprised if they end up losing Pete Alonso now, too, since other suitors will be able to offer him more (there are also luxury tax concerns that they should care about, even though we know Cohen doesn't).  And starting pitching is always an adventure for the Mets.  This offseason has been no different.  So, even after they got their guy, they've still got plenty to do.

Almost a year to the day after Ohtani's record deal, Juan Soto became the highest-paid player in baseball history.  That was just the start of what promises to be a busy offseason.  While we won't see another deal that comes anywhere close to the one Soto signed, now the fun really starts.  The Winter Meetings got off to a flashy start with the biggest fish coming off the board right off the bat.  Now it's everybody else's turn.

Sunday, December 8, 2024

NFL 2024 (Week 14)

Something that's been very apparent for most of the season, but especially on the last two Thursdays when three of the division's four teams were featured, is that the NFC North is far and away the best division in football.  It's not even close.  The Lions, Vikings and Packers will all make the playoffs and are a combined 31-7 this season, with four of those losses coming against each other (Green Bay's four losses this season are to Detroit twice, Minnesota and Philadelphia).  So, yeah, they're pretty good.  All three of them.

I also think it'll be good for the top teams (Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia, the three in the NFC North) to lose another game before the playoffs.  It sounds crazy to say that since the battle for positioning is so tight, but do you really want the added pressure of going into the playoffs on a massive winning streak with a 16-1 or 15-2 record?  The top teams all seem poised for another loss, too, which, again, I don't think is necessarily a bad thing.  Look at the Chiefs last season.  They lost to the Raiders on Christmas, then didn't lose again until three weeks ago.

Thursday Night: Green Bay (Loss)

Jaguars (2-10) at Titans (3-9): Tennessee-That was 100 percent a dirty play that knocked Trevor Lawrence out last week.  There's really no way to sugar coat it.  And, as a result, Lawrence is done for the season.  With Jacksonville officially eliminated from the playoff race, that was the right decision.  The Jaguars also currently stand to get the No. 1 pick in the draft.  That's a tight race with the Giants and Raiders, though, so they can't afford to screw it up by winning.

Jets (3-9) at Dolphins (5-7): Miami-Aaron Rodgers wants to play next season, and he wants to return to the Jets.  They don't seem to have any interest in a reunion, though.  That's how dysfunctional this relationship has become and how much of a disaster this season has turned into.  The Dolphins haven't exactly impressed this year, either, but they've simply not played up to expectations.  And they're still alive in the playoff race.  Playing the Jets twice in the last five weeks certainly helps that cause.

Falcons (6-6) at Vikings (10-2): Minnesota-Atlanta was sitting pretty at 6-3 with a two-game lead in the NFC South.  That lead has completely evaporated, and they're only holding on to a playoff spot because they hold the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.  Traveling to Minnesota isn't exactly the recipe for getting them back on track.  Kirk Cousins returns to his old stomping ground needing a win to stop the Falcons' skid, but I'm not sure he gets it.

Saints (4-8) at Giants (2-10): New Orleans-On Thanksgiving, the Giants actually looked like a competent, professional football team.  They still lost, but it was one of their better efforts of the season regardless.  The crazy thing is that both of their wins have come on the road.  At home, they've been utterly pathetic.  Honestly, I don't see that changing here.  The last time they played at MetLife, they got booed off the field at halftime.  Not having that happen again could be considered a minor victory.

Panthers (3-9) at Eagles (10-2): Philadelphia-Give the Panthers credit.  They've become quite the nuisance.  A three-point loss to Kansas City, then an overtime loss to Tampa Bay.  So, the Eagles should anticipate having their hands full.  Philadelphia's on a roll and will clinch a playoff berth win a win and some help (in the form of all the six-loss teams losing).  And the Lions already won this week, so they need a victory to keep pace with Detroit, too, which is just as important at this point.

Browns (3-9) at Steelers (9-3): Pittsburgh-Two weeks ago, these two met on a Thursday night that started out clear and finished as a blizzard.  The Browns pulled off the upset in that one, which really could've damaged Pittsburgh's chances at winning the division, but the Ravens' loss to Philadelphia gave them back that buffer.  Should the Steelers avoid the season sweep, they'll have a one-game lead with four left.  And they'll need it, since they've got a brutal stretch coming up (at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, Kansas City within 10 days).

Raiders (2-10) at Buccaneers (6-6): Tampa Bay-Thanks to Atlanta's losing streak, Tampa Bay is suddenly tied for first in the NFC South.  The Falcons have the tiebreaker, but that won't matter if they lose in Minnesota and the Bucs win at home against the Raiders this week.  There's obviously four games left after this.  Tampa Bay already has wins over Detroit and Philadelphia, though, so you know they can do some damage should they get in as the NFC South champion.

Seahawks (7-5) at Cardinals (6-6): Seattle-While the NFC North is the best division in football, the NFC West is the most competitive.  They're probably only getting the division winner in, and it'll come down to the end.  Seattle currently has a one-game lead and has won three straight since its bye, including a 16-6 victory over the Cardinals two weeks ago.  Playing the same team twice in that close an amount of time can either be really good or really bad.  For the Seahawks, I'm thinking it'll be good.  They go up two games and, more importantly, get the season sweep.

Bills (10-2) at Rams (6-6): Buffalo-The Bills went into SoFi for the season opener after the Rams won the Super Bowl and came away with a victory, setting the tone for their season.  They enter their first game at SoFi since then with the division already locked up.  Buffalo dominated San Francisco in the snow last week and has a huge matchup with Detroit next week, so this could easily be a trap game.  Especially since the Rams are good.  I don't think they'll let themselves get caught in that trap, though.

Bears (4-8) at 49ers (5-7): San Francisco-We've reached the must-win portion of the season for San Francisco.  The 49ers are still alive, but barely.  And they absolutely have to win out.  Playing the Bears is a good start.  Evidently Matt Eberflus was the only one who thought highly of his clock mismanagement on Thanksgiving.  He was fired literally the next day!  This is Chicago's first game since then.  Changing coaches worked for the Saints.  It didn't for the Jets.  Let's see how it goes for the Bears.

Chargers (8-4) at Chiefs (11-1): Kansas City-When I said the good teams might need another loss, Kansas City was right at the top of that list.  Statistically, the Chiefs should not be 11-1.  They know this.  Yet somehow, they're managing to win every week.  So why would I think they won't again this week?  As for the Chargers, they'll almost certainly be a playoff team, but they're still looking for a signature win against a strong opponent.  Winning on a Sunday night in Kansas City would certainly apply.

Bengals (4-8) at Cowboys (5-7): Dallas-They wouldn't have been able to flex this out of Monday night even if they wanted to because of all the animations and voiceovers that went into Simpsons alternate broadcast.  I doubt they would've anyway.  The Cowboys are still a draw, and Joe Buck indicated as much last week.  Dallas finally got a home win on Thanksgiving, but it wasn't exactly pretty.  They still won, though.  Can they make it two in a row?  (Also, why did they put Cincinnati vs. the NFC East in primetime three times?  And how come Bengals-Eagles didn't make the cut?)

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 15-1
Overall: 124-72

Friday, December 6, 2024

2025 Classic Baseball Ballot

Juan Soto's free agency has been the dominant topic of baseball's offseason and will continue into the start of the Winter Meetings this weekend.  It will also likely end sometime this weekend (Monday at the latest), as Soto seems set to make a decision fairly soon.  His signing won't be the only action at the start of the Winter Meetings, though.  It probably won't even be the first action.  That will be the announcement of the first Hall of Famers who'll be joining Ichiro in Cooperstown next summer.

This year, it's the Classic Baseball Era that's up for election.  Although, the definition of "Classic Baseball" certainly has changed.  It goes all the way until 1980, and the ballot reflects that wide range.  Two of the candidates played in the Negro Leagues.  Two played primarily in the 60s.  And of the other four, three played well into the 80s.

The last time this committee met, they did some necessary clean up.  Four players were voted in, and their elections felt long overdue.  It was nearly five.  Dick Allen missed out by only one vote, and he likely would've joined Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso and Tony Oliva had the voters been allowed to vote for more than four people.  The makeup of the committee is different this year, but I'd be surprised if Allen doesn't get enough votes this time.

So, who do I think will join Allen (and Ichiro)?  I'll get to that at the end.  First, I'm ranking the eight candidates from 1-8.  And, since you can only vote for four, those top four candidates would obviously be the ones who receive my vote.

1. Dick Allen, First Baseman (1963-69 Phillies; 1970 Cardinals; 1971 Dodgers; 1972-74 White Sox; 1975-76 Phillies; 1977 Athletics)-When Allen was on the ballot three years ago, I wasn't very high on his candidacy.  Then, when he just missed election, I took another look and rethought my position.  The definition of "Hall of Fame-caliber" has also changed significantly since Harold Baines was elected.  Allen was one of the most prolific sluggers in the Majors during his 15-year career.  He won a Rookie of the Year in one league and an MVP in the other and was a .292 career hitter...while playing the first half of his career in a pitcher's era.

2. Steve Garvey, First Baseman (1969-82 Dodgers; 1983-87 Padres)-He lost his Senate race.  Will this election go better for him?  I've long been on the Steve Garvey Hall of Fame bandwagon.  I think he's one of the more underrated players of the 70s.  He was the anchor of that Dodgers infield (which hasn't had a single member inducted into the Hall of Fame) and played in an NL-record 1,207 consecutive games.  That's 7 1/2 years during a 19-year career.

3. Tommy John, Pitcher (1963-64 Indians; 1965-71 White Sox; 1972-74, 1976-78 Dodgers; 1979-82 Yankees; 1982-85 Angels; 1985 Athletics; 1986-89 Yankees)-There are two reasons why I think Tommy John's career is Hall of Fame worthy.  The first is obvious.  The man has a freaking surgery named after him that has saved many a pitcher's career!  He missed the 1975 season before the surgery.  He ended up pitching until 1989!  The second are his sheer numbers.  John had 288 wins.  Yeah, he pitched a long time.  But that's still more wins than any pitcher since 1900 who isn't in the Hall of Fame except for Roger Clemens (who isn't in for different reasons).

4. Vic Harris, Outfielder (1922-47 Negro Leagues)-It was a tough call for my fourth "vote," but I ended up going with Vic Harris.  He was great as both an outfielder and manager for the legendary Homestead Grays.  Harris was a career .303 hitter over 18 seasons.  As a manager, his teams won seven pennants and a Negro World Series, and he has the highest winning percentage in history.

5. Dave Parker, Outfielder (1973-83 Pirates; 1984-87 Reds; 1988-89 Athletics; 1990 Brewers; 1991 Angels; 1991 Blue Jays)-Harris got the nod over Dave Parker, although I really wish I had a fifth vote so that I could go with both of them.  Parker was an outstanding defensive right fielder on those excellent Pirates teams in the late 70s, but he also won two batting titles and an MVP in Pittsburgh.  Then, later in his career, he became a solid DH.

6. John Donaldson, Pitcher (1908-40 Negro Leagues)-Donaldson pitched for more than 30 years, mainly for barnstorming Black teams, but also for a short time with the Kansas City Monarchs.  Among the stats that have been able to be verified are 420 wins, 14 no-hitters (including two perfect games) and 5,221 strikeouts.  His real totals are almost certainly higher.  Many consider him the greatest pitcher of his era.

7. Luis Tiant, Pitcher (1964-69 Indians; 1970 Twins; 1971-78 Red Sox; 1979-80 Yankees; 1981 Pirates; 1982 Angels)-Before Fernando Valenzuela was looking towards the heavens during his windup, Luis Tiant was turning his back to the batter and facing second base during his.  Tiant won 20 games four times and led the AL in ERA twice.  And, of course, he's best known as the ace of those Boston teams in the 70s.

8. Ken Boyer, Third Baseman (1955-65 Cardinals; 1966-67 Mets; 1967-68 White Sox; 1968-69 Dodgers)-Boyer was an 11-time All-Star and was the NL MVP in 1964, when the Cardinals won the World Series.  He still ranks among the Cardinals' all-time leaders in most offensive categories and was the second third baseman ever to hit 250 career home runs.  His number has been retired in St. Louis for 40 years, which shows how revered he is in Cardinals lore.

OK, so who gets in?  With only 16 voters, it's really tough to say.  I'm inclined to say Allen, who's fallen one vote short twice, will get over the hump this time.  It's possible that the other votes will be so spread out among the other candidates that he'll end up being the only one.  Regardless, it won't be the four we got three years ago.

I think it'll be two.  For some reason, I think Tommy John will get enough support.  There's a different appreciation for his career and his longevity, and the legacy that revolutionary surgery has left can't be ignored, either.  He had a very similar career to Jim Kaat, who did get in last time, which is another thing I see working in his favor.  So, if I had to guess, I'd say Dick Allen and Tommy John get the nod from the Classic Baseball Era Committee and become the first two members of the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2025.