Super Regionals Not So Super

For the past few years in the women's NCAA Tournament, there have only been two Regional sites instead of four.  There are still four Regionals, but two are played at each site.  It's stupid for many reasons, and not just because the Regionals have ridiculous names like "Spokane 1."  And I'm not the only one who thinks so.  Two prominent coaches have voiced their displeasure with the current system and their desire to go back to the old format with four Regionals.

Geno Auriemma is really not a fan.  Now, I'm sure part of the reason he doesn't like it is because UConn's been a 2-seed and got sent out west in each of last two years.  But the fact that they got sent out west is precisely because there are only two Regional sites.  Would they have had to travel anyway?  Perhaps.  And USC has been their 1-seed two years in a row, so it's likely they still would've gotten sent out west.  But the point is the likelihood of teams having to travel long distances is greatly increased when there are only two options and one of them is a remote city in the Pacific Northwest.

His issue seems to have less to do with the inconvenience of the long travel, though.  (Although, he did point out that they'll spend all day Tuesday traveling from Spokane to Tampa for the Final Four to then turn around and play on Friday night, which would've been the case for whoever came out of "Spokane 4.")  Rather, his concerns seemed to stem from other inconveniences such as weird and/or early practice times since they're trying to accommodate eight teams instead of four...and, since there are games every day, they have to work practice times around the game schedule, too.

In her postgame comments after LSU's loss to UCLA (in the other Regional being played in Spokane), Kim Mulkey made it known that she agrees with Geno.  For an entirely different reason.  Because of the impact it has on attendance.  She specifically noted that a lot of LSU fans would've loved to attend, but couldn't afford to go to Spokane and would've gone to the game if it were closer.  And there were plenty of UConn shirts in the stands in Birmingham, even though the Huskies were playing in Spokane.  Clearly their fans bought tickets for Birmingham expecting UConn to be sent there (which they likely would've been if they were a 1-seed).

That point is the important one to consider.  The initial thought behind the two Regional sites was that it would be great for attendance.  It would be a celebration of women's basketball where fans would have the opportunity to all gather in one place.  That may have been the case had they picked places that were a little more convenient/easy to get to.  In reality, though, it's actually had the opposite effect.  It's limited the potential attendance by only opening it up to two areas instead of four all around the country.

I'm not saying more fans definitely would've traveled if there were four sites instead of two.  But I can say fairly confidently that some fans have definitely NOT traveled to the Regionals because of the distance involved.  And those fans probably would've traveled (or at least considered it) if the team was playing somewhere closer.

Even with Caitlin Clark now in the WNBA, women's college basketball has never been hotter.  They've done some brilliant things with the NCAA Tournament in recent seasons.  Among them are getting the weekend windows on ABC and moving the Championship Game to Sunday afternoon on ABC.  They should be looking to capitalize on that momentum by bringing the games to more people.  Instead, they're making people come to them.  It's a backwards model!

Part of the thought process here might be that the top teams only have to travel for the Regionals since the top 16 overall seeds get to play the first two rounds at home.  And the on-campus sites plus the Regionals and Final Four mean 19 different venues host women's NCAA Tournament games a year, which is six more than the men.  However, that argument falls apart when you consider that they go from 16 seeds on the first weekend to two for the second weekend.  The two Regional thing, frankly, isn't working out the way the NCAA had hoped.

The idea came about several years ago when the NCAA did a full assessment of the women's tournament and that was one of the suggestions made.  It's something that sounds good in theory to the person who thought of it before it's a fully fleshed out idea.  Then enough other people think it's worth a shot, so they jump on board, too.  Then it becomes a reality and they realize it's not all it was cracked up to be in their heads.

When they first went to the two-Regional format, I was like "this makes no sense!"  Three years later, my stance is still the same.  There was absolutely nothing wrong with the old format of four Regionals, which had been utilized in every NCAA Tournament until the entire 2021 edition was played in San Antonio during the pandemic.  The 2022 Tournament was the last with four Regionals before they went to the current format in 2023.  They've announced sites for the next three NCAA Tournaments, and each has only two Regional sites.  So, we're stuck with the current format until at least 2028.  Or are we?

There's a very obvious solution here, and it's the one Kim Mulkey suggested in her postgame comments.  No one is saying that the NCAA should take away the Regionals that have already been awarded.  What people are saying is that you keep them, but add two more each year.  Then, you go back to the preferred four-Regional format while also having better geographic distribution.  Instead of one site on the East Coast and one on the West Coast, venues could be spread around the country in a similar way to the men (which is what they used to do).

Going back to four Regionals would benefit the women's tournament in so many ways.  First and foremost, it would be easier and more convenient for fans to have their favorite teams play closer to home.  That, in turn, would benefit the teams.  It also makes no sense to have what are essentially two Regionals guaranteed to be on the West Coast when the majority of the schools are not (it worked out this year that both UCLA and USC were 1-seeds, but how often does that happen?).

More importantly, this is a time when the NCAA should be looking to capitalize on the women's game's momentum and bring the NCAA Tournament to more people.  The idea that these eight-team double Regionals would be a celebration of the sport simply hasn't panned out.  You know it's bad when even the most influential coaches are vocalizing their displeasure with it.  Does that guarantee a change back to four Regionals is imminent?  No.  Knowing the NCAA, they could easily be stubborn and double down.  But I think their making it known that they don't like it will certainly get the discussion going.

As someone who's never been a fan of the two Regionals instead of four to begin with, you know which side of the debate I'm on.  I thought it was stupid when they were first discussing it, and having seen it in action, it doesn't make any more sense now than it did then.  Especially since there was no reason to move away from four Regionals in the first place!  Hopefully common sense prevails and they go back to that format.  Preferably sometime before 2029.

Too Much Replay

I was all set to do a post about the transfer portal and how it's absolutely killing college basketball.  Specifically how the timing of it is so stupid and how there's an easy solution to that problem.  It's the same solution I offered when I wrote about the football transfer portal back in December (which is why I decided not to do one about the basketball portal).  You don't open it until after the NCAA Tournament!  It makes absolutely NO sense how more than 1,000 players are in the transfer portal while the best teams are still playing the most important games of the season in the sport's marquee event!

So, instead of complaining about the transfer portal, I'm going to complain about another thing that's ruining college basketball.  Well, not necessarily college basketball as a whole, but definitely the NCAA Tournament.  The overabundance of officials going to the monitor, which makes NCAA Tournament games unnecessarily long.  It's insufferable!

Stan Van Gundy has been speaking for all of America with his disdain for the frequency with which officials go to replay, especially at the end of games.  During Florida-Texas Tech, he said something along the lines of "why would we want to interrupt all of these stoppages with an exciting basketball game?"  That pretty much summed it up.  It's too much.  And it makes the last two minutes of games take forever!

The last two minutes is an important distinction because that's when officials can stop play to check the monitor at any time.  Which is something they take full advantage of.  They go to the monitor on seemingly every play in the last two minutes, whether it's a close game or not.  And most of the stoppages are to reset the clock, and it takes five minutes for them to add 0.3 seconds!  Because it's super important to have the clock be at 4.8 instead of 4.5 in an eight-point game where the team that's winning has the ball!

Don't get me wrong.  There are situations when going to the monitor is absolutely necessary, especially in a close game.  You aren't sure who touched the ball last before it went out of bounds?  Definitely go check!  You want to confirm whether a basket was a two or a three?  No problem.  Checking whether a foul should be upgraded to a flagrant?  100 percent.  Resetting the clock every time there's a whistle?  Unnecessary!

Women's games were made painfully longer a few years ago when the NCAA changed the rules and started allowing them to advance the ball on a timeout in the final minute.  Ever since then, the final minute of women's games, especially close games, have followed a similar pattern.  Foul, timeout, foul, timeout, foul, timeout.  It takes at least 10 minutes to play one, with a maximum of about five seconds coming off the clock between stoppages.  And that's before you add in the replay reviews!

Even without teams being able to advance the ball on timeouts, men's NCAA Tournament games are quickly approaching that territory.  And the excessive use of replays doesn't just kill the momentum, it brings games to a screeching halt!  At the end of games, we spend more time watching the officials watch replays and Gene Steratore breaking down what they're watching than watching actual basketball!  But, hey, at least we get a lot of Gene Steratore out of it!

And there's no denying that replay is a valuable tool.  The whole point is to get calls right, and, when used correctly, replay can help officials do just that.  Too often, though, especially in the NCAA Tournament, replay isn't used as a tool.  It's more of a crutch than anything else.  Since it's there, the officials go to the monitor every chance they get, even when they don't really need to.  And therein lies the problem.

Many of these replay reviews in the last minute are to double check the clock and result in tenths of a second being added.  The reason for this is because they don't use Precision Timing in the NCAA Tournament.  I have no idea why!  With Precision Timing, the clock stops as soon as the official blows their whistle.  By not using it, you're relying on the clock operator's reaction time, which will obviously be slightly delayed.  I know that a lot of NBA arenas aren't set up for Precision Timing (again, not sure why not), so that might be why they don't use it in the NCAA Tournament.  But using it would eliminate a lot of the stoppages that are just to check the clock.

While March Madness is obviously the marquee event that brings this issue into the spotlight, the problem certainly isn't limited to the NCAA Tournament.  It's more prominent in the NCAA Tournament since those games are already longer because of the longer media timeouts and extra commercials, but overreliance on replay is an issue in the regular season and conference tournaments, too.  So much so, in fact, that Jay Bilas made a suggestion that's been echoed by many and could definitely help.  Going to coach's challenges.

Right now, whether they go to the monitor is entirely up to the officials.  Coaches can ask them to look at something, but the officials ultimately have the final say.  More often than not, they'll grant a coach's request, but they aren't required to.  However, since the officials are the only ones who can decide if they go to replay, the game is entirely at their mercy.  And, while the replay rules do limit the type of plays they can look at, there are still plenty of situations where they can (and do).

If coaches had challenges at their disposal, though, replay would be used a lot less liberally.  The officials would still have the ability to review plays on their own in certain situations (potential flagrant fouls, for example), but coach's challenges would, in theory, limit its overuse over the course of the game.  If a coach deems a play important enough to challenge, they can as long as they have challenges remaining (and a timeout available in case the challenge is unsuccessful).  If not, no need to go to replay.

Going to coach's challenges would make the use of replay more strategic, too.  A coach may not want to risk his last timeout on a play where it might've been off them, but they can't tell for sure.  Likewise, do you risk burning a challenge early and not having it later in the game when you might need it?  Give each coach two challenges per game.  If they're right, they get to keep them (as long as they have a timeout).  If they're wrong, it costs them a timeout.  

Every sport that uses replay has some sort of challenge system except for college basketball.  It's time to change that.  Because the sheer volume of reviews in some NCAA Tournament games make them difficult to watch.  There's plenty of excitement on the court.  People want to see that.  Not officials watching TV.

Baseball 2025 (AL East)

Well, we've reached the end of our journey.  The final installment of the baseball season preview.  The AL East.  Which is typically one of the most competitive divisions in Baseball and figures to be again.  The Yankees won the pennant last year.  The Orioles made the playoffs.  The Red Sox got some pitching and should be much better.  The Rays are playing at the Yankees' Spring Training stadium since theirs was destroyed by a hurricane.  And the Blue Jays are looking to get the most out of their last season before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. becomes a free agent.

Last year, it was the AL Central that had three playoff teams.  This season, I'd be shocked if it wasn't the AL East that does it.  Because I think it'll be a three-team toss-up between the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox.  The division race will probably come down to the wire (Orioles at Yankees is the final series of the season), and the two that don't win will probably be wild cards.

And let's not forget about the Blue Jays, either.  They finished last in 2024 and know they very well could lose their franchise player in free agency.  Will they go all-in to win this year as a result?  And the Rays' situation is just unfortunate.  They were all set to finally get a new ballpark, then the hurricane came in, destroyed their current one and forced them to scrap the plans for the new one.  Now their future in the Tampa area is in question.

Ultimately, though, I see those top three teams all winning 90 games this season.  Injuries could be a huge factor in which one ends up on top, too.  We've already seen what injuries have done to the Yankees.  It's because of those Yankee injuries that I'm picking Baltimore to win the division, with the Yankees and Red Sox each getting wild cards (and playing each other in the 4-5 Wild Card Series).

1. Baltimore Orioles: Now that the Orioles have established themselves as a consistent playoff contender, winning in October is the next step.  They got swept by the Royals in the Wild Card Series a year after getting swept by the Rangers in the Division Series.  They're in danger of becoming the Twins!  You've gotta think they'll get another chance to reverse those postseason fortunes, though.  Because this is cleary one of the six best teams in the American League.

The Orioles are young, too, so we'll be saying that about them for a while.  This year, they'll add a full season of Jackson Holliday to that group, which already includes Adley Rutschmann, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg.  They've got a lights-out closer in Felix Bautista, too.  If there's one area of weakness, it's probably the starting rotation, especially since Corbin Burnes left as a free agent and signed with Arizona.  I think it's good enough.  Which is all they need with that excellent lineup.  It's not as good as the Yankees or Red Sox rotation, though, and that could ultimately prove to be the difference in a close AL East race.  I'm still picking the Orioles to win the division, but it's an ever-so-slight advantage.
Projected Lineup: Colton Cowser-LF, Gunnar Henderson-SS, Adley Rutschmann-C, Ryan O'Hearn-DH, Ryan Mountcastle-1B, Jordan Westburg-3B, Cedric Mullins-CF, Tyler O'Neill-RF, Jackson Holliday-2B
Projected Rotation: Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich
Closer: Felix Bautista
Projected Record: 93-69

2. New York Yankees: This Spring has not been kind to the Yankees.  It's not just injuries.  It's serious ones to key players.  Gerrit Cole out for the year.  Luis Gil out until at least the All*Star Break.  Giancarlo Stanton out for God knows how long.  Yet, they're still well-positioned to return to the playoffs and even potentially defend their American League title.  Juan Soto heading across town might've ultimately been a blessing.  Because they were able to take the money earmarked for Soto and use it to get Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Devin Williams.  Those four guys wouldn't all still be Yankees had Soto stayed.

Isn't it funny, too, how they spent the entire winter trying to trade Marcus Stroman, and now he's one of the most important members of the rotation?  Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make!  Although, you know that the Yankees' Opening Day roster and the one they end the season with will be totally different.  They still want a right-handed power bat and still don't have a third baseman.  Don't be surprised if they add a starting pitcher, too.  So, the roster is still very much a work-in-progress.  Which means it's only gonna get better.  And what they have now is pretty good.
Projected Lineup: Austin Wells-C, Aaron Judge-RF, Cody Bellinger-CF, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Jazz Chisholm Jr.-2B, Anthony Volpe-SS, Jasson Dominguez-LF, Ben Rice-DH, Oswaldo Cabrera-3B
Projected Rotation: Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Will Warren, Carlos Carrasco
Closer: Devin Williams
Projected Record: 91-71

3. Boston Red Sox: Boston made a concerted effort to improve on its most glaring weakness over the past few seasons.  And boy did they address that starting rotation!  They swung a trade with the White Sox for Garrett Crochet and signed World Series hero Walker Buehler as a free agent.  They also brought in Lucas Giolito, who could be quite a weapon if he can stay healthy and regain his form of a couple seasons ago in Chicago.  They're all set with the back of games, too.  Liam Hendriks is back after missing all of last season, and they'll give Aroldis Chapman the opportunity to close (which is the role he's best suited for).

What makes less sense to me is the Alex Bregman signing.  It really just seems like a flex by a team that has money.  Because he's a third baseman and so is Rafael Devers, their best player who they've already made a long-term commitment to.  The current plan is to play Bregman at third and have Devers DH, but they already had Masataka Yoshida in place at DH (and they moved him there because they don't think he's a very good outfielder).  Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran have enough versatility that they can probably make it work.  It'll be an awkward fit, though.  And it was just so they can add Bregman's bat to the lineup (which I get, but they still need a second baseman).
Projected Lineup: Jarren Duran-CF, Alex Bregman-3B, Rafael Devers-DH, Triston Casas-1B, Trevor Story-SS, Masataka Yoshida-LF, Wilyer Abreu-RF, Connor Wong-C, Ceddanne Rafaela-2B
Projected Rotation: Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts, Sean Newcombe
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 90-72

4. Toronto Blue Jays: I don't want to say it's a make-or-break season in Toronto, but it sure does feel like that.  The Blue Jays know they need to give Vladito a reason to stay.  And they've done a good job of trying to convince him that they're in it to win now.  Anthony Santander is a perfect fit in that lineup, and he's protection for both Guerrero and George Springer.  They also traded for Andres Gimenez, who will slot in at the bottom of the lineup and really round it out.  On paper, the Blue Jays should have one of the best offenses in the game.

Their most intriguing move, however, might be signing Max Scherzer.  He's not the same pitcher he used to be, but if they can get even a sampling of Vintage Scherzer, that's a dangerous No. 4 starter!  Of course, there's no guarantee of that happening with Scherzer's age and recent injury history.  Still, with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt in the front of the rotation, Toronto's pitching will be formidable.  They also have a new closer in former Phillie Jeff Hoffman.  The Blue Jays will either crash & burn or be a playoff team.  They're capable of doing either.
Projected Lineup: Bo Bichette-SS, George Springer-LF, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Anthony Santander-RF, Ernie Clement-3B, Alejandro Kirk-C, Will Wagner-DH, Myles Straw-CF, Andres Gimenez-2B
Projected Rotation: Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Bowden Francis
Closer: Jeff Hoffman
Projected Record: 79-83

5. Tampa Bay Rays: If not for the Yankees offering them use of Steinbrenner Field, I don't know what the Rays would've done this season.  But playing there will definitely take its toll.  Not because of the stadium itself.  It's beautiful and one of the better Minor League facilities in terms of amenities.  And I actually think it'll help attendance since an 11,000-person sellout is a much better atmosphere than 14,000 spread around a 35,000-seat dump.  Rather, it's the amount of travel they'll have to do late in the season.  They adjusted the schedule, frontloading their home games because of the summer weather in Tampa (and Steinbrenner Field, unlike Tropicana Field, doesn't have a roof).  That could ultimately be what dooms the Rays, though.

It's not just the stadium situation, however.  Talent-wise, the Rays trail behind the rest of the division, too.  Of course, that's often the case, and they usually still find a way to win 90 games.  I don't see that happening this year, though.  Losing Shane McClanahan is huge for a team so reliant on its pitching staff.  The guys behind him in the rotation aren't nearly as good.  And the lineup lacks firepower, so they're gonna need to rely on that pitching staff and winning a lot of 3-2 games.
Projected Lineup: Yandy Diaz-DH, Brandon Lowe-2B, Junior Caminero-3B, Josh Lowe-RF, Christopher Morel-LF, Jonathan Aranda-1B, Jonny DeLuca-CF, Danny Jansen-C, Ha-Seong Kim-SS
Projected Rotation: Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Zack Littell
Closer: Pete Fairbanks
Projected Record: 75-87

So, there you have it.  All six divisions.  Just to recap, my AL division winners are the Orioles, Guardians and Rangers, with the wild cards going to the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros.  In the National League, it's the Braves, Cubs and Dodgers winning their divisions, and the Phillies, Mets and Padres as the wild card teams.

I think the four best teams in Baseball reside in the National League, so it shouldn't be a surprise that I think the NL pennant winner will also win the World Series.  As for which team that'll be, how can you go against the Dodgers?  They're trying to do something that hasn't been done in 25 years, and they have a great chance of doing it.  The World Series will be a matchup between the last two champions, in fact.  That's right, I'm saying Dodgers over Rangers in the 2025 World Series.

Baseball 2025 (AL Central)

Three teams from the AL Central made the playoffs last season.  Not only that, they all won a playoff series.  So, playing 13 games each against the White Sox clearly wasn't the only reason the Royals and Tigers reached the postseason.  They've both got incredibly young teams, too, so there's plenty of reason for them to be optimistic about a return.  But, they could just as easily come crashing back to Earth.

That's the thing about the AL Central.  There's no standout team, but, outside of the White Sox, none of them are truly bad, either.  On paper, Cleveland is the best team and should win the division.  But that's by no means a lock.  Not when they've got question marks on the pitching staff.  And the Twins finished fourth last year, but would it surprise anyone if they end up putting it together and won the division?

I'm also curious to see how Kansas City and Detroit follow up their 2024 success.  Will it be like Seattle, where it was just a one-year thing?  Or will it be like Baltimore, where it was the start of something lasting?  With the Royals especially, there's no reason to think it can't be lasting.  Although, last year they both needed only 86 wins to make the playoffs.  This season will likely require more, and I'm not sure I see either of those teams winning the 89-90 they'll need to get in.

Part of the reason for that is simply because I don't think it's possible for the White Sox to be anywhere near as bad as their historically terrible 2024 season.  The White Sox set a Major League record with 121 losses last year.  While they won't be good by any means, they'll be better.  And, because the White Sox should win more games, that probably means more losses for everybody else.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the White Sox end up having a say in who wins the AL Central.  Because they're gonna play well against somebody.

1. Cleveland Guardians: With Cleveland, it almost always comes down to pitching.  When they get it, they're good.  When they don't, they're bad.  I hate to make it sound so simple, but with the Guardians, it really is.  And, let's not forget, they've got one of the best bullpens in the game, headlined by All*Star closer Emmanuel Clase.  And they've got the best combination of pitching and hitting in the AL Central.  Which is why they have to be considered the favorites to repeat as division champs.

This is even after completely remaking their lineup.  They traded Josh Naylor to Arizona, with Carlos Santana returning for another tour of duty.  Andres Gimenez was also traded.  He's now in Toronto.  Yet, the Guardians still have enough pieces around Jose Ramirez that he won't be expected to do everything.  And this team knows as well as anybody that they don't need to have the best team in the American League.  They just need to have the best team in the division and be good enough to compete against the good teams in the playoffs.  The Guardians aren't as good as last year, but they're still the best team in the division.
Projected Lineup: Steven Kwan-LF, Carlos Santana-1B, Jose Ramirez-3B, Jhonkensy Noel-RF, Lane Thomas-CF, Kyle Manzardo-DH, Austin Hedges-C, Gabriel Arias-2B, Brayan Rocchio-SS
Projected Rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Luis Ortiz, Ben Lively, Logan Allen
Closer: Emmanuel Clase
Projected Record: 89-73

2. Detroit Tigers: Last season, the Tigers made the playoffs with a pitching staff that consisted of Tarik Skubal and not much else.  Skubal was sensational and a deserving Cy Young winner, but there's no possible way they'll be able to do that again.  What's even crazier about what they did last season was how they only got hot and on that roll that carried them into the playoffs after they traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers.  Flaherty won a ring in LA, then came back as a free agent to give Detroit a formidable 1-2 punch with Skubal.

They also brought in a big-name free-agent position player--Gleyber Torres.  I'm very curious to see how that relationship works out.  On the Yankees, he didn't have to be The Man.  In Detroit, he does.  How will that impact his production?  (We saw what happened when they signed Javy Baez to that big contract.)  If he proves he can anchor a lineup and the Tigers' young core continues building on last year's success, they'll be in good shape.  A lot of things went right for the Tigers last year, though, especially at the end of the season.  How realistic is it to expect that to happen again?
Projected Lineup: Wenceel Perez-CF, Gleyber Torres-2B, Riley Greene-LF, Spencer Torkelson-DH, Colt Keith-1B, Kerry Carpenter-RF, Zach McKinstry-3B, Javier Baez-SS, Jake Rogers-C
Projected Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe
Closer: Andrew Chafin
Projected Record: 84-78

3. Kansas City Royals: Don't look now, but the Kansas City Royals could very well be on the verge of doing what they did a decade ago again.  Last year, the Royals made the playoffs for the first time since their 2015 World Series championship season, and they've made sure Bobby Witt Jr. isn't going anywhere.  They aren't just building around their budding superstar, either, they're putting quality pieces around him.  That included making a trade with Cincinnati for Jonathan India, giving them both a second baseman and a leadoff hitter.  And if Vinnie Pasquantino stays healthy all season, look out!  That guy can mash a baseball!

The biggest key to their success last season, though, was that starting rotation.  Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo both made the All*Star team.  They're really what made the Royals go.  Kansas City doesn't need them to pitch at the same level.  They do need them to be close to it, though.  That's the biggest question mark heading into this season.  The lineup should be solid.  If they get the pitching to back it up, a return to the playoffs is certainly possible.  A division title isn't even out of the question.  They won't take anybody by surprise this year, though.  That's a whole different challenge.  How will they handle actually having expectations?
Projected Lineup: Jonathan India-2B, Bobby Witt Jr.-SS, Vinnie Pasquantino-1B, Salvador Perez-C, Mark Canha-DH, Hunter Renfroe-RF, Maikel Garcia-3B, Kyle Isbel-CF, MJ Melendez-LF
Projected Rotation: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Michael Lorenzen
Closer: Carlos Estevez
Projected Record: 82-80

4. Minnesota Twins: Whenever you think the Twins will be good, they miss the playoffs.  Whenever you think they won't, they end up winning the division.  Take last season.  Minnesota went in as the prohibitive favorites, finished fourth, and watched three other AL Central teams make the playoffs instead.  Heading into this year, it would be foolish to expect them to place any higher than fourth again.  Which probably means they'll win 90 games.  But, then again, maybe not.

Honestly, I can't see the Twins finishing above any of those three playoff teams from last season.  Their pitching isn't as good as the three teams above them, and neither is their lineup.  Byron Buxton is an electric player when healthy, but he almost never is.  If, somehow, they can manage to keep him in the lineup all season, that would be a start.  Even with a healthy Buxton, though, I don't think they have enough to keep pace with Cleveland.  Kansas City and Detroit, maybe.  But not all three.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Willi Castro-3B, Carlos Correa-SS, Ty France-1B, Jose Miranda-DH, Trevor Larnach-LF, Ryan Jeffers-C, Matt Wallner-RF, Edouard Julien-2B
Projected Rotation: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
Closer: Jhoan Duran
Projected Record: 77-85

5. Chicago White Sox: Nobody thought the White Sox would be any good last season.  And boy, they were not!  So, in a way, they lived up to expectations (as low as they might've been).  What I don't think anyone expected, though, was for them to be THAT bad!  There is one benefit to a lost season like that, though.  Things can't get much worse!  And, based on that alone, this season will almost certainly have to be better.  That doesn't mean the White Sox will be any good.  They're still one of the worst teams in the Majors.  I'm just saying don't expect another Major League record for losses.

As crazy as it sounds, I'm even willing to go out on a limb and say the White Sox won't even have the worst record in Baseball.  That honor, I'd expect, will go to the Angels.  The White Sox have enough talent there to think they'll bounce back.  In the lineup at least.  Their pitching is still horrible.  In fact, it's even worse now that Garret Crochet has changed his Sox.  They'll still lose 100.  They won't lose 120.
Projected Lineup: Andrew Benintendi-LF, Luis Robert Jr.-CF, Andrew Vaughn-1B, Bryan Ramos-DH, Korey Lee-C, Manuel Vargas-3B, Mike Tauchman-RF, Josh Rojas-2B, Lenyn Sosa-SS
Projected Rotation: Sean Burke, Davis Martin, Martin Perez, Shane Smith, Mike Clevinger
Closer: Justin Anderson
Projected Record: 55-107

Baseball 2025 (AL West)

The Astros won yet another AL West title last season.  Not so much because they were the best team.  But more because the others were just worse.  The Rangers had all kinds of injury issues (especially in the rotation) after winning the World Series in 2023.  The Mariners are still looking to return to their playoff form from 2022.  The Angels were adjusting to life without Ohtani.  And the A's were playing a lame-duck season in Oakland with players who cared about as much as the fans did.

This season figures to be a little better for the division.  Texas should bounce back and is probably the division favorite should that happen.  Houston knows that the window is closing, too.  The Astros will have a very different look this season because of it.  And don't count out Seattle putting it together and making a playoff run like they did a few years ago.

Things in California may not be much better, though.  The Angels have been a mess for a while.  They need Mike Trout to actually stay healthy if they have any chance of being relevant.  I'd actually rather be the Athletics than the Angels right now.  Sure, they're vagabonds playing in a Minor League park in Sacramento, but their owner (who clearly just didn't want to be in Oakland) is actually investing in the team in an obvious attempt to make them relevant/competitive once they move to Las Vegas.

Still, though, it wouldn't be a total shock to see two playoff teams come out of the AL West.  Especially if the two Texas teams spend the whole season jockeying for first place.  The Mariners making it three is harder to see.  But they'll be that annoying team that hangs around all season and ends up falling a few games short of getting in.

1. Texas Rangers: After the high of winning the World Series in 2023, the Rangers didn't even make the playoffs last season.  Which really was the result of the injuries that decimated their pitching staff more than anything else.  Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer both missed a massive amount of time, and they simply didn't have the pitching depth to make up for those losses.  It's not like that's no longer a concern, either.  Scherzer's in Toronto now, but how much can they really rely on deGrom?  He's 36 years old and has made a grand total of nine starts in his two years with Texas.  If he's actually still pitching in August, though, that's a huge bonus for the Rangers.

They've got a much deeper lineup this season, too.  First, they swung a trade with the Marlins to get Jake Burger as their new first baseman.  Then they signed Joc Pederson to DH.  That offense will carry Texas.  The pitching just needs to be good enough.  The big area of concern is the bullpen.  But you've gotta figure that will be addressed during the season.  Provided everyone stays healthy, we're looking at one of the best teams in the American League.  They're far and away the best team in the AL West.  Expect the Rangers to finally end Houston's run of division titles.
Projected Lineup: Marcus Semien-2B, Corey Seager-SS, Adolis Garcia-RF, Jake Burger-1B, Evan Carter-LF, Josh Jung-3B, Jonah Heim-C, Joc Pederson-DH, Leody Taveras-CF
Projected Rotation: Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Kumar Rocker, Patrick Corbin
Closer: Jacob Webb
Projected Record: 91-71

2. Houston Astros: Moving Jose Altuve to left field was such a strange move.  I really just don't get it!  And they did it so late in Spring Training, too.  It would've been one thing had they gone in with that as the plan as soon as Tucker was traded, but, even with Bregman gone, they're still committed to it.  They obviously know what the master plan here is better than I do, but that doesn't make it any less confusing.  Especially when they traded their best player and let their second-best player walk as a free agent (after making a customary attempt to keep him).

Still, there's no reason to think there isn't at least one more year in this window of contention for Houston.  Their ALCS streak ended last year, but, even without Tucker and Bregman, the Astros didn't just slip quietly into the night.  They added Christian Walker, who's a perfect fit for that lineup, and Isaac Paredes, who was playing third base even if Bregman re-signed (the Altuve thing would make a lot more sense if Bregman had moved to second).  And they have 85 starting pitchers, so the chances of five of them being healthy at any one point are pretty good.  Then, at the end of games, Josh Hader is one of the best closers in the business.  So, even though the window is closing, it's not closed yet.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-LF, Jeremy Pena-SS, Yordan Alvarez-DH, Christian Walker-1B, Isaac Paredes-3B, Yainer Diaz-C, Chas McCormick-RF, Jake Meyers-CF, Mauricio Dubon-2B
Projected Rotation: Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 89-73

3. Seattle Mariners: Seattle SHOULD be good!  I feel like people say that about the Mariners every year.  Yet, every year, it's pretty much the same situation where they're right around .500 and in the playoff mix before ultimately falling short.  I wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what happens once again.  On paper, they're the third best team in the division.  They aren't as good as either Texas team, but they're better than both California teams.  The question is whether they'll win enough games to grab the third wild card.  Which, if everything goes right, they can.

It all starts with the pitching staff.  Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo are excellent at the front of the rotation.  Do they have enough depth behind them, though?  And they need somebody other than Julio Rodriguez to hit.  If they get that production from the lineup, they'll be in good shape.  If they don't, that's a huge burden to put on the pitchers.  And, ultimately, I'm just not sure they'll get the combination.  They'll either hit and get no pitching or pitch well and get no hitting.  Which will be just enough to finish where they usually do.  Around .500.
Projected Lineup: J.P. Crawford-SS, Randy Arozarena-LF, Julio Rodriguez-CF, Mitch Garver-DH, Luke Raley-1B, Jorge Polanco-3B, Cal Raleigh-C, Dylan Moore-2B, Victor Robles-RF
Projected Rotation: Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, George Kirby
Closer: Andres Munoz
Projected Record: 83-79

4. Athletics: As soon as they got out of Oakland, they started spending.  First, it was signing Luis Severino to the biggest free agent contract in team history, then it was locking up Brent Rooker on a long-term deal that will take them into the Las Vegas Era.  That's three years away, though.  They're currently in the Sacramento Era while officially not calling anywhere home (even though they have a Las Vegas patch on their sleeves).  Ultimately, that's the most fascinating thing about this team heading into this season.  Talent-wise, they're significantly better.  But how much of an impact will the Sacramento Summer heat and playing in a Minor League ballpark have?

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if they get off to a hot start.  It's been a very fraught situation for this franchise over the past few years, so having some certainty and knowing the current situation is only temporary have to bring a huge sense of relief.  I'm just worried that the conditions will wear on them over the course of the season, though.  They're in much better shape than they were last season, but I think the goal for the next few years is to be competitive enough to generate enough excitement for Las Vegas.  Although, playing in front of 9,000 fans in Sacramento will feel much different than playing in front of 9,000 fans in Oakland.  In Oakland, the stadium was crap and it was always empty.  In Sacramento, that'll be a sellout.  That will almost certainly help, too.
Projected Lineup: Lawrence Butler-RF, JJ Bleday-CF, Brent Rooker-DH, Shea Langeliers-C, Zack Gelof-2B, Miguel Andujar-LF, Tyler Soderstrom-1B, Gio Urshela-3B, Jacob Wilson-SS
Projected Rotation: Luis Severino, JP Sears, Jeffrey Springs, Osvaldo Bido, Joey Estes
Closer: Mason Miller
Projected Record: 71-91

5. Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon's contract will go down as perhaps the worst free agent signing in Major League history.  And this is the same team that was so desperate to get out of the 10-year contract they gave Albert Pujols, they just cut a first-ballot Hall of Famer at the end.  Rendon will start the season on his second home, the 60-day injured list, but even if he wasn't, he doesn't even figure into the Angels' plans.  They brought in Yoan Moncada as their new third baseman, and he would've been the starter over Rendon regardless.

Their other big name who's spent an inordinate amount of time on the IL, of course, is Mike Trout.  Trout loves playing center field, but this season, they're moving him to right, hoping that'll help keep him healthy.  It's worth a shot.  Because if the Angels are gonna have any chance this season, they obviously need to have Trout in the lineup.  Even then, it'll be a long season in Orange County (especially since the Dodgers are the Dodgers).  I'd say "at least they're not the White Sox," but I actually think they'll give the White Sox a run for their money as the worst team in Baseball.
Projected Lineup: Zach Neto-SS, Mike Trout-RF, Taylor Ward-LF, Jorge Soler-DH, Yoan Moncada-3B, Logan O'Hoppe-C, Nolan Schaunel-1B, Luis Rengifo-2B, Jo Adell-CF
Projected Rotation: Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, Jose Soriano, Kyle Hendricks, Reid Detmers
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 54-108

Baseball 2025 (NL East)

Three teams from the NL East made the playoffs last season.  The third-place team reached the NLCS...then went out and gave Juan Soto the biggest free agent contract in history!  And they still might only be the third-best team in the division!  Which, ultimately, might not matter come October.  Because the order of finish for this top three really doesn't make a difference.  As long as they all get back to the playoffs, it's realistic to see any of them winning the pennant.

As for which of the three should nominally be considered the division favorite, you really could just pick out of a hat.  Things will be THAT competitive between the Phillies, Mets and Braves this season.  With the injuries to the Mets' rotation (which isn't that good to begin with), I think they're the safest bet to say will be a wild card.  The Braves and Phillies are so close, though, that it really could be either order.  I'm going with Atlanta simply because I think they're a little deeper, but it really is ever so slight.

And you really can't help but feel for the Marlins and Nationals sometimes.  They both figure to be bad and neither one is trying to be competitive, but that's not even the point.  The point is that they're gonna be stuck in the same situation for a while.  Even when they go back to trying to be good, the other three aren't exactly going anywhere...and they're gonna have to finish ahead of at least one of them to make the playoffs!

So, yes, I do anticipate the NL East having three playoff teams again.  I also expect all three of them to win 90 games.  And, frankly, they're probably the second-, third- and fourth-best teams in the National League behind the Dodgers.  Come October, they've all got a chance of knocking off the Dodgers in a short series, too. 

1. Atlanta Braves: Last season ended about as poorly as it possibly could for the Braves.  They were sitting pretty, then they had to play that makeup doubleheader with the Mets before immediately flying cross country to play the Padres in the Wild Card Series.  And they were all must-win games, so their rotation was decimated.  Of course, they were only in that position because they put themselves in it.  But, the point is, it gives them motivation heading into this season.  The Braves will want to make sure that doesn't happen again.  And, frankly, there's no reason why it should.

After getting stuck in the abyss during his years in Boston, Chris Sale returned to his Cy Young form last season.  And, the Braves have taken a page out of the Dodgers' book by carrying about nine starting pitchers.  That's why I've gotta tab them as the division favorites.  They've kept a remarkably consistent lineup, too.  This year they added Jurickson Profar to it.  Can he repeat his All*Star form from San Diego?  Not having Ronald Acuna at the start of the season is a blow.  But they've been without him before, so it's not like it's something they aren't used to.  And there's so much talent on the Braves that putting Acuna back in the lineup at some point will only make them that much better.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Jurickson Profar-LF, Matt Olson-1B, Austin Riley-3B, Marcell Ozuna-DH, Sean Murphy-C, Jarred Kelenic-RF, Orlando Arcia-SS, Michael Harris-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Ian Anderson, Spencer Strider
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 94-68


2. Philadelphia Phillies: What's not to like about the Philadelphia Phillies?  Entering the playoffs last season, I had them pegged as the only team capable of beating the Dodgers.  That may have been true.  I just didn't account for the Phillies losing to the Mets!  But, their excellent regular season followed by playoff disappointment at the hands of a division rival in 2024, will serve to motivate the 2025 Phillies.  Who don't really look all that different.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola form one of the best rotation 1-2's in the game.  I really like the Phillies' bullpen, too.  And they finally figured out that Kyle Schwarber isn't a leadoff hitter!  The only major difference between last season and this season was the addition of free agent Max Kepler to play left field.  He's a perfect fit in the Phillies lineup, especially when you consider he'll probably bat lower in the order.  I mean, Rob Thomson can really set up his lineup any way he wants and will find success.  This team is that good offensively!  Throw in great starting pitching and a solid bullpen, and the Phillies will once again be among the top teams in not just the National League, but all of Baseball, this season.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, Alec Bohm-3B, Bryce Harper-1B, Nick Castellanos-RF, Kyle Schwarber-DH, J.T. Realmuto-C, Max Kepler-LF, Bryson Stott-2B, Brandon Marsh-CF
Projected Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez
Closer: Jordan Romano
Projected Record: 93-69

3. New York Mets: Steve Cohen said he wasn't going to be outbid for Juan Soto, and he wasn't.  The Mets gave Soto the biggest free agent contract in history, then sat around waiting for Pete Alonso to decide if he wanted to come back or not.  Alonso eventually did re-sign, which was an absolute necessity to give Soto lineup protection.  And, let's not forget, this is a team that was good enough to make the NLCS last season and just got a whole lot better.  Lineup-wise, at least.  The pitching staff is still a work in progress.

It's because of their starting pitching (which isn't anywhere near as good as Atlanta's or Philadelphia's) that I can't, in good conscience, pick the Mets to finish any higher than third.  I guess part of the thought process behind signing Clay Holmes as a starter is that he can't blow saves in the first inning?  They're relying on a bunch of third and fourth starters to be healthy and productive against two rotations that are better.  For all the money the Mets overpaid Soto (and, yes, they overpaid him), they probably should've invested more in the pitching staff.  Because that will be their Achilles' heel.  The Mets will need to win a lot of games 8-6.  Because they won't be winning too many 2-1 games.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Juan Soto-RF, Pete Alonso-1B, Mark Vientos-3B, Jesse Winker-DH, Brandon Nimmo-LF, Francisco Alvarez-C, Tyrone Taylor-CF, Jeff McNeil-2B
Projected Rotation: Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 91-71

4. Washington Nationals: If they were in the NL Central instead of the NL East, the Nationals would be like the Reds.  A team that has the potential to contend in a weak division if everything goes right.  Unfortunately, however, that's not the case.  Washington has the chance to play spoiler and could very well have a say in who wins the NL East, but it won't be them.  The Nationals have some quality young talent.  Just not enough of it when they're competing against three behemoths.

Still, though, I'd much rather be Washington than Miami.  The Nationals have a good core to build around in CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, and they've actually brought in some veterans in the likes of Paul DeJong (free agent), Josh Bell (free agent) and Nathaniel Lowe (trade from Rangers).  MacKenzie Gore has developed into a solid No. 1 starter, too.  Even if everything goes right, their chances of competing in the NL East this season aren't that high.  The upside is definitely there, though.  They're only 2-3 years away from legitimately challenging the Big Three.
Projected Lineup: Luis Garcia Jr.-2B, CJ Abrams-SS, Josh Bell-DH, Nathaniel Lowe-1B, Dylan Crews-RF, Jacob Young-CF, Keibert Ruiz-C, Paul DeJong-3B, James Wood-LF
Projected Rotation: MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams
Closer: Kyle Finnegan
Projected Record: 70-92

5. Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara is back after missing all of last season due to Tommy John surgery.  So, there's that.  Whether he'll still be on the Marlins at the end of the season is a much different question.  Because he'll be one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the market, and you know plenty of contenders will hope to make use of Alcantara's services.  It would actually be shocking if they don't trade him at the Deadline (or much sooner).  Because, outside of him, this is essentially a Minor League team.

Name another player on the Miami Marlins besides Sandy Alcantara.  Can't do it, can you?  Fortunately, teams like the White Sox, Angels and Rockies are still around.  Otherwise, we'd be talking about the Marlins as the worst team in Baseball.  They've got a lot of young guys who'll see regular playing time, so that'll bring the typical growing pains.  That would be bad enough if they weren't in the same division as three of the best teams in baseball.  Put the two together and you've got the recipe for another long season in Miami.
Projected Lineup: Otto Lopez-2B, Xavier Edwards-SS, Kyle Stowers-LF, Jonah Bride-DH, Matt Mervis-1B, Derek Hill-CF, Connor Norby-3B, Griffin Conine-RF, Nick Fortes-C
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Cal Quantrill, Max Meyer, Connor Gillespie, Ryan Weathers
Closer: Calvin Faucher
Projected Record: 65-97

Baseball 2025 (NL Central)

Even though they're in last place right now, the Chicago Cubs are probably the best team in the NL Central.  It's not a very high bar to clear.  The NL Central is possibly the weakest division in Baseball, and will almost certainly get only one playoff team.  And that division winner might only need 87-88 wins.  But, the Cubs aren't so far ahead of the pack that it won't be a close division race.  In fact, I think this could be one of the more competitive divisions all season.

Milwaukee somehow always manages to either make the playoffs or get close.  Regardless of who's on the roster or managing the team.  And Cincinnati managed to coax Terry Francona out of retirement.  Don't be surprised if having a future Hall of Famer in the dugout was all the Reds needed to become a contender.  Especially in this division.

The Pirates have Paul Skenes.  He's not enough to make them a playoff team, but he is enough to make them watchable every fifth day.  And, I can't believe I'm about to type this next sentence, but the Cardinals are entering a rebuilding phase.  It's crazy to think about St. Louis not even trying to be competitive, yet that's the situation entering the season.  Which probably means they'll win 90 games and Oliver Marmol will be the NL Manager of the Year.

So, while it's harder to say how it'll all shake out in this division than any other, there is one thing we can expect to see in the NL Central this season.  A competitive race that goes down to the wire between potentially three teams.  And they'll likely only be going for one available spot.  Because an NL Central team getting a wild card seems like a stretch.

1. Chicago Cubs: Trading for Kyle Tucker was an all-in move.  Of course, they traded for Kyle Tucker right after they traded away Cody Bellinger, but the point remains.  The Cubs wanted everyone to know that they're serious about winning in 2025.  Talent-wise, they've got the roster to do it, too.  On paper, they're the best team in the NL Central.  And they've got a great manager in Craig Counsell.  Although, with Tucker a free agent after this season and no guarantee he'll re-sign, that all-in could lead to a mid-July selloff if things go sideways.

Tucker isn't the only former Astro the Cubs added.  They also brought in Ryan Pressly as their new closer.  And Ryan Brasier from the Dodgers as a setup guy.  Do they have flaws?  Absolutely!  Do they still need some pieces?  Definitely!  They could sure use another starting pitcher, for one.  But, top to bottom, the Cubs have the deepest roster and greatest margin for error in the division.  That's why I think they're the team to beat in the NL Central.  Especially if they stay healthy and make some in-season additions.  They aren't anywhere near as good as the Dodgers or the three NL East teams.  But, the good thing is, they don't need to be.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-LF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Kyle Tucker-RF, Michael Busch-1B, Seiya Suzuki-DH, Pete Crow-Armstrong-CF, Nico Hoerner-2B, Matt Shaw-3B, Miguel Amaya-C
Projected Rotation: Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea
Closer: Ryan Pressly
Projected Record: 90-72

2. Milwaukee Brewers: I'm picking the Cubs to win the division, but would it surprise anyone if the Brewers did?  In fact, I'll probably go back at the end of the season and be like "you're an idiot" for not picking Milwaukee when they run away with the division title.  Because, no matter what, they always end up right there at the end.  And they do it with an ever-changing cast of characters.  So, no, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Brewers win the division again.

Christian Yelich didn't even play in the second half of last season and they clearly didn't miss him.  Just imagine how dynamic their lineup will be if they get a full season of both Yelich and Jackson Chourio!  I'm curious to see how the Devin Williams trade impacts their bullpen, though.  They had one of the best closers in the game and now they no longer do.  They flipped him for Nestor Cortes, though, which makes their rotation that much longer.  Starting pitching is the biggest asset the Brewers possess.  If they're going to defend their division title, their pitching staff will be a big reason why.
Projected Lineup: Brice Turang-2B, Jackson Chourio-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, William Contreras-C, Mark Canha-DH, Oliver Dunn-3B, Sal Frelick-CF, Joey Ortiz-SS
Projected Rotation: Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, Brandon Woodruff
Closer: Trevor Megill
Projected Record: 86-76

3. Cincinnati Reds: Elly de la Cruz is on his way to becoming a superstar.  And this season could very well be his breakthrough.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Gavin Lux has a big year now that he'll get the chance to get some regular at-bats.  Same thing with Austin Hays, who was an All*Star in Baltimore before his playing time completely disappeared.  The Reds have always been able to hit.  That's never been a problem and won't be again this season.  They need to pitch, though.

Hunter Greene turned into a legitimate ace last season, and Cincinnati will rely on him to anchor the rotation again.  Brady Singer came over from Kansas City in the Jonathan India trade to give them a quality No. 2 behind Greene.  Then they've got veterans Wade Miley and Nick Martinez at the back end of the rotation.  And they've got a lights-out closer in Alexis Diaz.  If they get enough from their pitching staff, it's not crazy to think the Reds could challenge the Cubs and Brewers.  Because the talent disparity really isn't that much.
Projected Lineup: Elly de la Cruz-SS, Gavin Lux-2B, Spencer Steer-3B, Jemier Candelario-1B, Austin Hays-LF, Jake Fraley-RF, Christian Encarnacion-Strand-DH, Tyler Stephenson-C, TJ Friedl-CF
Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Wade Miley, Nick Martinez
Closer: Alexis Diaz
Projected Record: 81-81

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh is that team that can be both really fun and really frustrating to watch.  The Pirates have a bunch of really good core players that other teams try to get at the Trade Deadline, but they always hold on to.  Guys like Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller and David Bednar.  Yet, even with that talented core, they're always out of it by mid-June.  And now they've got Paul Skenes, who took the National League by storm as a rookie last season.  Which only adds to the expectations in Pittsburgh.

Don't be surprised if they want to build around Skenes for a few years the same way they built their playoff teams around Gerrit Cole a decade ago.  And they really aren't that far away.  Because they've got that core group I mentioned, and they augmented with veterans Tommy Pham and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.  The IKF signing resulted in Oneil Cruz being moved to center field, with Reynolds shifting to right.  I'm curious to see how well Cruz, a career infielder, handles playing center.
Projected Lineup: Bryan Reynolds-RF, Andrew McCutchen-DH, Tommy Pham-LF, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Oneil Cruz-CF, Spencer Horwitz-1B, Nick Gonzalez-2B, Isiah Kiner-Falefa-SS, Joey Bart-C
Projected Rotation: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 76-86

5. St. Louis Cardinals: They've made it pretty clear that they don't want Nolan Arenado anymore.  So, of course, they head into the season with Arenado still on the roster.  Which isn't to say he still won't be traded at some point.  Frankly, it'd be shocking if he isn't.  Although, everyone expected him to be traded by now and he hasn't been, so maybe not.  Either way, whether they keep Arenado all season or not, it won't make much of a difference.  For the first time in a long time, the Cardinals aren't expected to or planning on being good.

If you take Arenado out of the equation, Sonny Gray is the biggest name on the roster, and he'll once again anchor the starting rotation.  They boast an excellent closer in Ryan Helsley, who I can see contenders wanting at the Trade Deadline.  After his first two seasons in St. Louis were a disaster, Willson Contreras has moved to first base and is loving his new position.  Other than Arenado and Contreras, it's a bunch of young guys in the lineup.  Which means the Cardinals will probably be really good in 2027-28 when that young core has 2-3 years of experience under their belts.
Projected Lineup: Lars Nootbaar-LF, Masyn Winn-SS, Nolan Arenado-3B, Willson Contreras-1B, Jordan Walker-RF, Alec Burleson-DH, Michael Siani-CF, Nolan Gorman-2B, Pedro Pages-C
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Steven Matz
Closer: Ryan Helsley
Projected Record: 73-89